Doctor G said:
I don't think the "local kid" angle really plays much outside of real star players. No one cares if your supersub utility guy grew up watching the team. It's not like Mauer in Minnesota or Adrian Gonzalez in SD.
Trading for Starting Pitching
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
I don't think the "local kid" angle really plays much outside of real star players. No one cares if your supersub utility guy grew up watching the team. It's not like Mauer in Minnesota or Adrian Gonzalez in SD.
From ESPN's Jayson Stark. The bold made me feel better:
Clubs that have checked in say the Sox have no interest in dealing Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez or Rusney Castillo. And obviously, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroiaaren't packing any suitcases.
Other than that, almost any position player, young or old, is a potential chip. And the Red Sox have so many starting pitchers on their shopping list (Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello, etc.), it's impossible to predict quite yet which of them will wind up in Fenway.
But it's Cespedes who is generating massive interest, and figures to be the centerpiece of some major package or other. The Red Sox have told everyone, though, that they've plotted out scenarios in which he's still on their team. So if their path to trading for a starting pitcher takes them down some other road, they're surprisingly cool with that.
Clubs that have checked in say the Sox have no interest in dealing Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez or Rusney Castillo. And obviously, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroiaaren't packing any suitcases.
Other than that, almost any position player, young or old, is a potential chip. And the Red Sox have so many starting pitchers on their shopping list (Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello, etc.), it's impossible to predict quite yet which of them will wind up in Fenway.
But it's Cespedes who is generating massive interest, and figures to be the centerpiece of some major package or other. The Red Sox have told everyone, though, that they've plotted out scenarios in which he's still on their team. So if their path to trading for a starting pitcher takes them down some other road, they're surprisingly cool with that.
So Vazquez is untouchable while Swihart is not? Sounds backwards (not that I would be trading either).Hee Sox Choi said:
Sounds to me like Stark isn't talking about players not on the 25-man roster; I don't think I would read anything either way from that statement about Swihart, Owens, etc.
And not to mention that Houston doesnt even respond to an offer of Mujica, Holt, and a prospect unless of course you are talking about one of the top 5. And if that was the case I would think he would mention the package with Betts/Xander/ etc. as the headliner, not just as an ads on to Holt/Mujica.ookami7m said:
Nomo's NoNo said:
I'm sure if Vaz is untouchable then Swihart is too. I think Stark just knows that his audience is more likely to be familiar with Vaz since he got some big league exposure last year. When you're on this board a lot its hard to remember that most fans won't know a prospect until they hit the majors unless they're Harper/Trout/Bryant level.
Anyone else intrigued by Stark's suggestion that Castillo is not available? I mean, if Ruben Amaro offered Hamels for Castillo, shouldn't Ben think hard about that? What's Castillo's expected excess value over his contract?
7 yrs 72.5. If he's a 3 WAR player (18-21 per year) he's worth roughly double his contract. No clue if he'll hit that or not, but he doesn't need to do much to earn his contract. I would think as a right handed bat on top of that, he's really valuable to a lot of teams.Minneapolis Millers said:
Has anyone done projections? There are ways of comparing minor league, even NPB stats to MLB, but not for Cuban baseball. The scouting, and his limited performance so far, is extremely encouraging, but AFAIK there's no methodology for projecting expected performance/value for a player in this situation.Minneapolis Millers said:
MakMan44 said:
Looked pretty decent at the plate in a small sample size this year. Power looked legit, and some of his aggressive approach could be chalked up to rust.
Wouldn't be too surprised to see a .270/.330/.430 line with 15-20 HR, 25+ SB out of CF.
Glad to read this about Betts and Bogaerts. Not really a lot of surprises about who might be available. Take Bogaerts, Cazquez, Betts, Ortiz, Pedey, Castillo off the table along with Ramirez and Sandoval, and that just leaves Napoli, Cespedes, Craig, Victorino, Nava and guys like WMB and Holt. Napoli would be the biggest surprise if he was dealt, and I doubt he will be. Kind of interested in what Nava's value might be.Hee Sox Choi said:
jimbobim said:
Tiny sample: Rusney's 4/11 with a SB, one walk and two Ks for Criollos de Caguas. Not much we can conclude about his talent, but at least it looks like the hand injury is not holding him back.
Thinking the Tigers obtaining Green yesterday, positions them as excellent trading partners with Boston. But who they trade will hinge on where Lester signs.
Porcello for Cespedes and a Single A prospect if Lester signs with Boston
Price for Cespedes plus Cecchini (plus another lesser body possibly) if Lester does not.
McCarthy is my FA signing if no Lester.
Lester / Porcello or Price / McCarthy top of the rotation next year looks plausible.
Before you ask, why not get Lester and Price? I really don't think they want to give up ANY premier young talent, if they can avoid it. End of next year, when all the transition is complete, sure deal away all the surplus, but right now, all those kids are playing for a limited number of spots on the 2016 roster and the more they retain the better their chances of finding the pieces from within. Whether it be at 1B, a corner OF position, or end of bullpen, by retaining all of the kids, there's a great chance they don't have to shop outside their organization net year.
Porcello for Cespedes and a Single A prospect if Lester signs with Boston
Price for Cespedes plus Cecchini (plus another lesser body possibly) if Lester does not.
McCarthy is my FA signing if no Lester.
Lester / Porcello or Price / McCarthy top of the rotation next year looks plausible.
Before you ask, why not get Lester and Price? I really don't think they want to give up ANY premier young talent, if they can avoid it. End of next year, when all the transition is complete, sure deal away all the surplus, but right now, all those kids are playing for a limited number of spots on the 2016 roster and the more they retain the better their chances of finding the pieces from within. Whether it be at 1B, a corner OF position, or end of bullpen, by retaining all of the kids, there's a great chance they don't have to shop outside their organization net year.
I don't think that Price would be a good trade candidate to come to the Sox. The recent bad blood between Price and Ortiz coupled with the low level of animosity demonstrated over the years by Price towards the Red Sox along with Boston's seeming desire to have good fits personality wise for the team makes Price a less likely trade target, at least in my mind. I know players move and end up on teams they've had issues with before but I think Price would be a bad fit on several points.
FWIW, I do like the idea of Porcello for Cespedes+1 lower piece.
FWIW, I do like the idea of Porcello for Cespedes+1 lower piece.
Why would the Tigers trade Price for spare parts? Cespedes, like Price, will be a free agent after the season. Cecchini has questions about his power and his position, and your third piece is admittedly a lesser body.67WasBest said:
If you're the Tigers you should Price for top prospects to replenish your system or keep him in a GFIN mode for 2015.
It was a discussion starter, no matter who I nominated some would find it too light while others find it too expensive. Suffice it to say they could assemble a deal if neededcurly2 said:
You may be right, and the fallback #1 could be Shark or Zimmerman. It just seemed like these two teams would find comfort in an already in place safety net for either option Lester selects. I don't put a lot of stock in that public fued stuff. IMO, it's just Price expressing frustration at his Rays playing 2nd fiddle to the Sox for so many years. As a Vandy guy, hes smarter than that, and I still find it odd he even went there.SoxLegacy said:
curly2 said:
The Tigers are GFIN. They have a core group of Miggy, Kinsler, VMart, Verlander, Price and Sanchez. They are likely the favorites to win the ALC. Right now, any deal that doesn't bring them back a cost controlled established pitcher and an established cost controlled 3B or OF, likely isn't going to get them to move Price. The Sox don't have the pieces to make this deal, and I doubt any team is going to pay that price to for Price. To think the Tigers are going to trade Price for an expiring contract and fluff, an expiring contract and an elite prospect or a deal based around elite prospects (all of which the Sox can offer) is a pipedream . So, while the Tigers may be willing to listen to trades for Price, I strongly doubt the Sox have what it takes.
The Tigers aren't trying to rebuild, they are trying to win. The reason why they are willing to move a guy like Porcello is because they can turn a guy that slots into the back of their rotation into a commodity like a power hitter.
The same thing goes for Iwakuma, Zimmerman, Cueto or any other starter that is sitting at the top of the rotation on a team that is looking to compete in 2015. These guys may be available come the trade deadline if their respective teams fall out of contention. However, until then, it's a pipedream.
Edit: Terrible grammar
Mariners are reported hard on Cabrera now. Wondering if that signals Iwakuma is no longer an option for the Sox?
For what it's worth (maybe nothing), the M's GM said they aren't trading Iwakuma and doesnt know where such a rumor came from.
Edit: slow.
But I'll add that 2 things seem apparent:
1. It seems like the best possible landing spots for Cespedes are (unfortunately) with teams that would need to weaken their rotation in order to add his RH'd power, which they seem uninclined to do.
2. The huge prices expected for stud players don't really materialize in actual deals (see Donaldson). Either the player is just not available at all or the team giving up he stud is giving a bit of a discount in order to spread their risk between severL players. This probably has at least as much to do with how that team evaluates the prospects in question as it does looking at the future risk
But I'll add that 2 things seem apparent:
1. It seems like the best possible landing spots for Cespedes are (unfortunately) with teams that would need to weaken their rotation in order to add his RH'd power, which they seem uninclined to do.
2. The huge prices expected for stud players don't really materialize in actual deals (see Donaldson). Either the player is just not available at all or the team giving up he stud is giving a bit of a discount in order to spread their risk between severL players. This probably has at least as much to do with how that team evaluates the prospects in question as it does looking at the future risk
If not a for a guy like Iwakuma, who fits the Sox needs very nicely, where could Cespedes end up going that turns him into a starting pitcher. I'd be willing to throw in 1-2 prospects on top of Cespedes to get a guy who has another year of control beyond 2015. I've championed packaging Cespedes and Middlebrooks and a couple prospects in a deal for Cashner, and I still favor that as the best option to turn our surplus into immediate help. San Diego might not agree, but that's the kind of move I think BC is looking into at the moment. The next 2 weeks should be very interesting.
Of course that's the type of move Ben should be looking into. That's an utter coup for him.
EDIT: You don't just "throw a couple prospects" in a deal to get a guy with more than one year of control left. They're going to be the headliner. Middlebrooks is the throw in and Cespedes isn't even enough to net someone better than Porcello on his own. I don't know why people have to keep repeating this but here we are again.
EDIT: You don't just "throw a couple prospects" in a deal to get a guy with more than one year of control left. They're going to be the headliner. Middlebrooks is the throw in and Cespedes isn't even enough to net someone better than Porcello on his own. I don't know why people have to keep repeating this but here we are again.
IpswichSox said:
I sure hope so. I'd rather have Kasmir (gulp) then Kennedy. At least there is significant upside with Kasmir. I just see Kennedy getting murdered in the AL and being much worse than just giving one or more of the young guns a chance next season.
Ian Kennedy is better than you guys think. This isn't the Yankees version of Ian Kennedy, this is a guy who has been a workhorse for the past 5 years. xFIPs for past 5 years: 3.44, 4.19, 4.13, 3.50, 4.10. IP past 5 years: 201, 181, 208, 222, 194.Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
I was going to stat up and research it but noticed OTM posted this this morning:
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/12/7/7349365/red-sox-yoenis-cespedes-trade-rumors-ian-kennedy
Highlights:
Kennedy's 2014 ERA+ was just 92, but that's a bit misleading. He struck out 9.3 batters per nine, punched out three times as many batters as he walked, and posted a 3.21 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). While FIP certainly isn't the be-all pitching statistic, it's probably accurate in Kennedy's case, as his batting average on balls in play was an inflated .320. That's high to begin with, but for someone who pitched about half of their games at pitcher-friendly -- and BABIP-killing -- Petco Park, it's absurd. Kennedy's career BABIP, even with 2014 involved, is a much more normal .289. He might lose a couple of whiffs coming to the AL East from the NL West, but the BABIP is likely to drop even with Fenway Park as his home.
Kennedy has averaged 201 innings per year since 2010, posted a 115 ERA+ from 2010 through 2012 before a down 2013, and would arguably be Boston's best pitcher were he to join them this very second.
I started writing this before Hee Sox Choi's post, but yeah, what he said.
I remember Ian Kennedy not being very good as a Yankee. I have lost track of him since he moved to the NL, so I was interested in what kind of pitcher he is. Ian Kennedy seems like he throws 4 pitches, a 4-seam, a cutter, a change and a curve (BrooksBaseball also lists a sinker, but I think those are really 4-seamers, he has only thrown 49 in his career).
Ian Kennedy has been at times effective and at times not so effective in recent years, but not horrible.
SIERA
2011 - 3.44
2012 - 3.88
2013 - 4.09
2014 - 3.47
(For reference Clay Buchholz was 4.02 last year. John Lackey was 3.50 last year as a Red Sox pitcher.)
What was different and is it repeatable?
Kennedy increased his velocity on his fastball a little over one MPH from 2013. More importantly he threw his changeup about 2.5 mph faster and his cutter about 1.5 mph slower.
Additionally, it seems like he was getting better movement from his curve and his cutter.
Ultimately it was his cutter that was much more effective at missing bats last year.
If I had to guess, I'd say the fastball probably regresses a little and the cutter is slightly less effective this year. Still, it seems likely that he would be the best pitcher on the staff as it is currently constructed. It is good to hear about a real potential return for Cespedes, my paranoia has been trying to talk me into expecting a return of 2 low A RP prospects from Texas.
I remember Ian Kennedy not being very good as a Yankee. I have lost track of him since he moved to the NL, so I was interested in what kind of pitcher he is. Ian Kennedy seems like he throws 4 pitches, a 4-seam, a cutter, a change and a curve (BrooksBaseball also lists a sinker, but I think those are really 4-seamers, he has only thrown 49 in his career).
Ian Kennedy has been at times effective and at times not so effective in recent years, but not horrible.
SIERA
2011 - 3.44
2012 - 3.88
2013 - 4.09
2014 - 3.47
(For reference Clay Buchholz was 4.02 last year. John Lackey was 3.50 last year as a Red Sox pitcher.)
What was different and is it repeatable?
Kennedy increased his velocity on his fastball a little over one MPH from 2013. More importantly he threw his changeup about 2.5 mph faster and his cutter about 1.5 mph slower.
Additionally, it seems like he was getting better movement from his curve and his cutter.
Ultimately it was his cutter that was much more effective at missing bats last year.
If I had to guess, I'd say the fastball probably regresses a little and the cutter is slightly less effective this year. Still, it seems likely that he would be the best pitcher on the staff as it is currently constructed. It is good to hear about a real potential return for Cespedes, my paranoia has been trying to talk me into expecting a return of 2 low A RP prospects from Texas.
Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
How about Rose? I think the Sox should weigh Rose vs. Ian. Seriously, I want no part of Ian Kennedy.
If you are dealing Cespedes, and San Diego is interested, it has to be worth it to include other assets to go after Ross or Cashner. Kennedy might be a fine one year option, but he's not a difference maker, and he's also a free agent after 2015. We might net a pick if we offer him the QO, but is that truly a slam dunk? If the deal were assuredly Cespedes for Kennedy plus the compensation pick (assume that Kennedy turns down the QO), that's a bit better, but does it move the needle enough on the 2015 team to make it worthwhile? I think the farm is deep enough to cough up a prospect or two (or three) to get a guy with more team control and higher upside.
If we're talking single year control guys, why not Shark? Oakland needs a ss, and Marrero is a guy we might be able to build a trade around. It would likely cost more than Marrero, but it isn't impossible to imagine a deal like Marrero and JBJ for Shark as being really useful on both sides. Oakland has a big OF and has no true CF talent (Crisp isn't a good range guy anymore, and is always hurt), and both Marrero and JBJ are defensively excellent and cheap for the next 5 years. That's probably a nice get for Oakland for a single year of control with Shark. Maybe the deal only gets done if we get an extension with Shark, but that's my read of the tea leaves for now.
If we're talking single year control guys, why not Shark? Oakland needs a ss, and Marrero is a guy we might be able to build a trade around. It would likely cost more than Marrero, but it isn't impossible to imagine a deal like Marrero and JBJ for Shark as being really useful on both sides. Oakland has a big OF and has no true CF talent (Crisp isn't a good range guy anymore, and is always hurt), and both Marrero and JBJ are defensively excellent and cheap for the next 5 years. That's probably a nice get for Oakland for a single year of control with Shark. Maybe the deal only gets done if we get an extension with Shark, but that's my read of the tea leaves for now.
As the resident San Diego based pitching guy, I will chime in.
I am not excited about Kennedy in Boston, and think we can do better for Cespedes. I know he did well in Phoenix before getting to Petco, but I view him as very average and not likely to really thrive in Boston. Combination of his career performance and trends along with eyeballs and impressions of pitch quality and consistency.
Ross and Cashner are much more desirable targets, but I think the Padres won't shop either unless they are overpaid. I hope they keep talking and see what is there, but I would be very disappointed with Cespedes for Kennedy.
I am not excited about Kennedy in Boston, and think we can do better for Cespedes. I know he did well in Phoenix before getting to Petco, but I view him as very average and not likely to really thrive in Boston. Combination of his career performance and trends along with eyeballs and impressions of pitch quality and consistency.
Ross and Cashner are much more desirable targets, but I think the Padres won't shop either unless they are overpaid. I hope they keep talking and see what is there, but I would be very disappointed with Cespedes for Kennedy.
I would take Ian Kennedy but just not for Cespedes. Power is a rare commodity in the league, I can't see the Sox settling on Kennedy. I still wouldn't rule out a package that lands us Walker. Z is under pressure to GFIN because of the contracts on the roster currently. Walker is probably slightly under Shelby Miller since he really hasn't had much experience in the league. Getting a guy like Hultzen isn't going to help. If they get a young guy it should be someone like him. If you want a veteran than Hamels or someone of that ilk should be the target.EllisTheRimMan said:
Kennedy had one very good year in 2011, and one pretty bad year in 2013. Other than that, he's been average-ish, but a workhorse as Hee Sox noted. Kind of Bronson Arroyo Lite. I don't think he'd be our best pitcher on arrival unless we've really given up on Buchholz, but he'd be our #2. If we can add another arm to the top of the rotation and make him our #3, with Kelly and <insert homegrown SP here> the 4 and 5, that's not an exciting rotation but a workable one.
I'd prefer Porcello, especially since we already know he can pitch in the AL, but Kennedy's not much worse. I think Cespedes for Porcello would be an even-up swap, but Cespedes for Kennedy might require a little sweetener coming our way.
I'd prefer Porcello, especially since we already know he can pitch in the AL, but Kennedy's not much worse. I think Cespedes for Porcello would be an even-up swap, but Cespedes for Kennedy might require a little sweetener coming our way.
I'd love to get Porcello for Cespedes, but if I was in Detroit's position, I'd want something to come back in addition to CespedesSavin Hillbilly said:
Would anyone here have traded John Lester for Ian Kennedy at last year's deadline? Did anyone ever leak one of the prospect packages that the Red Sox said they turned down in favor of getting Cespedes and a future 2nd round draft pick? I have to believe the package of prospects would be more valuable now than Cespedes seems to be.
In addition, regardless of what Ben says about having mapped out scenarios where Cespedes is still on the team, those scenarios include trading Napoli and putting Ramirez at 1B or sending Betts or Castillo to AAA. Neither of those makes the Red Sox better. Thus, the Red Sox have less leverage now, because teams know Cespedes is a square peg in a round hole on this roster.
In addition, regardless of what Ben says about having mapped out scenarios where Cespedes is still on the team, those scenarios include trading Napoli and putting Ramirez at 1B or sending Betts or Castillo to AAA. Neither of those makes the Red Sox better. Thus, the Red Sox have less leverage now, because teams know Cespedes is a square peg in a round hole on this roster.
Again, the only way the Sox lose leverage in trade talks is if they're only dealing with 1 team or the competing teams collude to drive down the price.
The fact is, a year of Cespedes is worth the Ian Kennedy/Rick Porcello types. That's it.
The fact is, a year of Cespedes is worth the Ian Kennedy/Rick Porcello types. That's it.
MakMan44 said:
Yea, I would be pretty happy about getting Porcello for Cespedes. Cespdes just isnt a great player, he has "power" but he doesnt walk and doesnt make lots of contact. occasionally he hits one out of the park. He isnt good defensively, and there is no QO. We should have gotten whatever prospects we could have for Lester, it was a bad decision in hindsight to trade for Cespedes
All the things he lacks are apparently abundant or at least available in the market. "Power" is a legit scarcity so its value is amplified by GMs seeking it. Ben should be able to exploit at least one team with a surplus of pitching with this chip. Which begs the question: why do some posters here keep bringing up the fact he leaves something to be desired in other areas? It's a moot point.sean1562 said:
Because people keep whining about the rumored returns (which aren't even that bad, honestly...Porcello and Kennedy both project better than anyone the Sox have right now besides Good Buchholz)?CaskNFappin said:
It's not like you can just use his power and attach it to another player who takes walks and is good at defense. You have to play the whole package, and the whole package is a good, not great player who is owed a decent amount and can't be made a qualifying offer.
