Trading for Starting Pitching

[Why Not Grebeck?]

I know that the chances of this happening are probably 2% or less thanks to the money we'd be taking on, but since none of us saw the Hanley & Panda signings coming, what about something this:
 
- Sign Lester to something like 6/140.
- Trade Marrero, Owens, and Cecchini for Hamels.
- Trade Cespedes and Barnes for Porcello.
 
That'd be committing to two more 100+ million dollar deals, which is very unlikely, but a rotation of Lester/Hamels/Porcello/Buch/Kelly would be nails.
 
Have Webster spend the year in AAA developing & move RDLR and Workman to fill out the 'pen where their stuff will play up well. 

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

What did Brandon Moss just bring back? I know he was injured but I can't imagine there's a massive gap between Moss's trade value and Cespedes'.

well, not a massive gap, but Cespedes should be more valuable.  Offense is comparable, but Moss's defense is terrible and Cespedes has some value on that side (though perhaps largely because of his arm).  Steamer projects Cespedes as nearly one win better overall for next year.
 
edit: sorry, Moss may be cheaper than Cespedes though...not sure what Moss's salary is for next year

 

[TomRicardo]

Also Moss just had hip surgery.

 

[MakMan44]

well, not a massive gap, but Cespedes should be more valuable.  Offense is comparable, but Moss's defense is terrible and Cespedes has some value on that side (though perhaps largely because of his arm).  Steamer projects Cespedes as nearly one win better overall for next year.
 
edit: sorry, Moss may be cheaper than Cespedes though...not sure what Moss's salary is for next year

But the Indians get 2 years of Moss and no QO for Cespedes. There's a gap, and I think you made a good argument that it probably favors Cespedes, but you've also made a decent argument why Porcello is probably a good deal for the Sox.
 
Proven MLB pitcher who they can maybe get a pick for or extend him if they want, it's better return than a Coyle lite type. 

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

But the Indians get 2 years of Moss and no QO for Cespedes. There's a gap, and I think you made a good argument that it probably favors Cespedes, but you've also made a decent argument why Porcello is probably a good deal for the Sox.
 
Proven MLB pitcher who they can maybe get a pick for or extend him if they want, it's better return than a Coyle lite type. 

ah good point, I forgot about the no QO for Cespedes.  and yes, I'd love Porcello for Cespedes.  I'd even be fine with it if the Red Sox added someone to the deal--say Ranaudo or someone similar

 

[Max Venerable]

Three way trade for Shark.  Boston deals Cespedes for Porcello or Kennedy, who goes to Oakland along with prospects or excess position players like Craig/Nava/Victorino for Shark. 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Three way trade for Shark.  Boston deals Cespedes for Porcello or Kennedy, who goes to Oakland along with prospects or excess position players like Craig/Nava/Victorino for Shark.

So Boston gets Shark.
Detroit gets Cespedes.
Oakland gets our salary dump and spare parts?

Maybe we can bring back a subsidized Hamels by including Clay Buchholz and getting Ryan Howard sent to Oakland in the process.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 3s4 seconds ago
Red Sox would have to include SS Marrero in any deal with the A's for Samardzija.
 

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/542034752169975808

 

[foulkehampshire]

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/542034752169975808

 
I have no issues with dealing Marrero for Samardzija whatsoever. 

 

[nvalvo]

So Boston gets Shark.
Detroit gets Cespedes.
Oakland gets our salary dump and spare parts?

Maybe we can bring back a subsidized Hamels by including Clay Buchholz and getting Ryan Howard sent to Oakland in the process.

 
Oakland would probably accept something like Kennedy/Porcello and Marrero/Cecchini. That's a very reasonable deal for one year of Shark. 

 

[67WasBest]

I think that tweet by Carfado shows how easily they could assemble a competitive team for 2015, while retaining all their important kids.
 
Marrero for Shark
Cespedes plus Webster for Porcello + prospect or Ross alone
FA signing

 

[ivanvamp]

Will Marrero for Shark get it done?  If so, YESYESYES.
 
I like those two deals.  I would want the FA to be Lester, but if not, McCarthy would work.  
 
Shark, Porcello, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly would be pretty solid.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Would anyone here have traded 2 months of John Lester with no draft pick for a year and two months of Ian Kennedy plus a draft pick at last year's deadline?

 
The edited version is the real-world question, and while I don't think it's an obvious "yes", it certainly isn't the obvious "no" I think you were going for.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
 

I think that tweet by Carfado shows how easily they could assemble a competitive team for 2015, while retaining all their important kids.
 
Marrero for Shark
Cespedes plus Webster for Porcello + prospect or Ross alone
FA signing

 
 

Will Marrero for Shark get it done?  If so, YESYESYES.
 
I like those two deals.  I would want the FA to be Lester, but if not, McCarthy would work.  
 
Shark, Porcello, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly would be pretty solid.

 
 
 

Red Sox would have to include SS Marrero in any deal with the A's for Samardzija.

 
Emphasis mine. There is very little chance Marrero would be the primary piece and absolutely no chance he'd be the only piece. Reading is fundamental.

 

[nvalvo]

If the A's don't want a year of Samardzija, why would they want a year of Kennedy?

 
Because they brought Samardzija in for the postseason in exchange for a near-ready SS prospect, it didn't work, and they now appear to be rebuilding. They can replace Russell with Marrero (a downgrade, depending on how they see Marrero), let Kennedy's FIP express itself in an even bigger ballpark and then deal him at the deadline for another prospect while replacing him with another of their young pitchers. 
 
Or maybe not. 

 

[soxhop411]

“@NEPD_Loyko: .@pgammo repots Yoenis Cespedes WILL be moved. #RedSox not interested in Ian Kennedy, ”Red Sox have some real good offers on the table“”

 

[pdub]

If we're intent on trading Cespedes then I'd try to see if we can include prospects in exchange for a pitcher with more than one year left on his deal. If we stock up on Porcellos and Samardzijas then we'll be back on the market next off-season wondering if either player is worth $80-100M. Or potentially more. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
There is no world in which Marrero is not a massive downgrade from Russell. Russell is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Marrero isn't even top 100, nor close to it. 

 
What does Russell have to do with anything ? That deal is a sunk cost ..He's trying to trade one year of Shark .. in an offseason where there are several other comparable pitchers on the block - not to mention three premium FAs

 

[nvalvo]

 
There is no world in which Marrero is not a massive downgrade from Russell. Russell is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Marrero isn't even top 100, nor close to it. 

 
Oh, I totally agree. I don't put much stock in Marrero's AFL numbers. Even after seeing him play well on both sides of the ball in Portland all summer, I don't expect him to ever hit well enough to be more than a bench player. He's young, but not so young as to have a lot of projection left. And the defense is great, but not the Iglesias-level great that makes you consider carrying a poor bat as a starter. 
 
But then we hear these things about some scouts rating him above Lindor, who is most definitely comparable to Russell. If that's an opinion that is at all widely shared, I want to sell high to whomever it is holds that view. 

 

[Rasputin]

Just to toss this out there, as something that should be remembered.
 
With all the free agents next year, there are going to be some valuable pieces traded during the season.
 
Getting pitchers who may not be aces, but would be good enough to make it likely that the Sox could compete would be a reasonable path to follow as it would allow the team to answer some questions about the 2015 team before making a sizable commitment in prospects.
 
This may end up costing more in prospects, but it's also possible that it obviates the need for a trade at all either because things are working out better than expected or worse than expected.

 

[grimshaw]

He's as a notch below Iglesias in the field who was rated between a 70-75 (to Marrero's 60-65).
I see him as an Everett type who still managed to carve out a few .650 to.700 OPS seasons but was obviously known as a glove wizard.  I'm sure he'll  at least get a starting crack with a team that highly values defense and hates spending money.

 

[KillerBs]

I will co-sign that. Losing Lester for budgetary reasons and then dealing the crown jewels for the cheaper "ace" is worst case scenario. Count me out on James Shields tho.

 

[Lynchie]

Watch them go with a few 3s and see them come up short.

 

[Devizier]

The A's also have Daniel Robertson, who just had a good season at high A this season. Obviously he's got a ways to go, but I imagine that Marrero would be viewed more as a transitional player for the A's. I would think that Beane would ask for one of the Sox better pitching prospects, if not Owens then someone just below.

 

[Rasputin]

Watch them go with a few 3s and see them come up short.

 
It could happen, and we have to be okay with that if the alternative is giving up guys we don't want to give up.
 
The problem is, we never really know what the alternatives are.
 
Personally, I like the idea of adding Samardzija and Shields.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Ras, I agree that the likely availability of arms mid-year will be a factor for what the Sox do now.  At a minimum, it makes it highly unlikely that they get 3 starters this offseason, as some have speculated.  They're going to want a spot to have for the kids at the outset to see if one or more can emerge this year.

 

[Al Zarilla]

“@NEPD_Loyko: .@pgammo repots Yoenis Cespedes WILL be moved. #RedSox not interested in Ian Kennedy, ”Red Sox have some real good offers on the table“”

Hope Gammo's right. Kennedy is career lousy in interleague splits, although some of that is vs. NL when he was a Yankee. 92.2 IP, 4 - 10, 5.54 ERA, 1.424 WHIP. He has feasted on the Padres and the Giants. 

 

[OCD SS]

Never happens, but agree with Ras.

Trade for a guy like Porcello, Samardzija, or Kennedy (or if you can, Ross, Kuechel, etc).

Sign one of Shields, McCarthy, Santana, Liriano, etc.

A rotation of something like Samardzija, Liriano, Buchholz, Kelly, de la Rosa isn't the best in the league, but it's competitive, doesn't lock you in long term, and won't gut the farm system.

The worst move here would be a panic trade for Hamels, IMO.

IMO trading for Hamels is only a panic move if it means giving up X, Betts, or Swihart (who I'm sure Bem wouldn't give up in such a deal).

I'd quibble with a few of your names (Kennedy, Sheilds), but overall this looks like a strong rotation with less risk and greater flexibility than the overspending solutions most are advocating. This looks more like the "deep depth" approach before 2013

 

[soxhop411]

“@GordonEdes: Sox talked with Tigers about Cespedes/Porcello deal, but there wasn’t a match there”

 

[soxhop411]

“@ScottLauber: #RedSox telling folks they could keep Cespedes. (Industry source suggested he could play CF at home, RF on road.) Still, trade seems likely”

 

[Al Zarilla]

“@ScottLauber: #RedSox telling folks they could keep Cespedes. (Industry source suggested he could play CF at home, RF on road.) Still, trade seems likely”

Wow. Who came up with that one? Farrell? The guy is a "not a natural" enough out there without burdening him with two different positions. Talking about his judging flyballs more than his arm. 

 

[benhogan]

 
It could happen, and we have to be okay with that if the alternative is giving up guys we don't want to give up.
 
The problem is, we never really know what the alternatives are.
 
Personally, I like the idea of adding Samardzija and Shields.

That would be a sweet haul.
 
BUT If Lester gets 7yrs for $155-165MM, does Shields get 4yrs for $80MM? maybe 5 yrs for $95MM? 
 
What do you think the Sox limits on a James Shields contract should be?

 

[soxhop411]

“@iamjoonlee: #RedSox saying they could keep Cespedes per @ScottLauber. Belief in Cespedes camp, however, was that chance of deal at meetings was high.”

 

[Lynchie]

 
It could happen, and we have to be okay with that if the alternative is giving up guys we don't want to give up.
 
The problem is, we never really know what the alternatives are.
 
Personally, I like the idea of adding Samardzija and Shields.

I'll give you that. Need a top guy to go with them.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yes please

 
It was just John Smoltz throwing an idea out for a segment in which they make up trades for the sake of.. .well... for the same reason we do it so much here. Because it's fun. There was absolutely no connection to any reports or insider information and there is probably very little chance that a package for Hamels looks much like that.

 

[The Boomer]

How about some lesser known cost controlled pitchers nobody here has mentioned who could be revelations without costing the kitchen sink?  Here is my nomination:
 
Danny Salazar with the Indians:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml
 
Who else fits this description?  Discuss.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

How about some lesser known cost controlled pitchers nobody here has mentioned who could be revelations without costing the kitchen sink?  Here is my nomination:
 
Danny Salazar with the Indians:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml
 
Who else fits this description?  Discuss.

Are the Indian's much interested in moving Salazar for the price of a kitchen sink?  Apparently not.
 
The odds of catching someone who is (a) discernibly better than the cattle call of guys we're bringing into spring training, (b) cost-controlled over the next few years and (b) doesn't cost an arm and a leg are exceedingly long, I'd say.

 

[Rasputin]

I'll give you that. Need a top guy to go with them.

 
You realize the second sentence contradicts the first, right?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Is there any reason to hope that, given his idiocy and/or perceived need to "win" the trade in a superficial way, Amaro would actually prefer to get a "known commodity" (read: a "name") like Cespedes in the deal? Because that tiny bit of crazy is the only thing that leads me to believe a package built around a guy he doesn't really need as part of a rebuild could work for Hamels.

 

[MakMan44]

No. There was a tweet earlier that spelled out that the Phillies have no interest in Cespedes. 

 

[Bigpupp]

 
It was just John Smoltz throwing an idea out for a segment in which they make up trades for the sake of.. .well... for the same reason we do it so much here. Because it's fun. There was absolutely no connection to any reports or insider information and there is probably very little chance that a package for Hamels looks much like that.

Well Amaro isn't dead so I assumed it wasn't an actual rumor.

 

[MikeM]

 
The odds of catching someone who is (a) discernibly better than the cattle call of guys we're bringing into spring training, (b) cost-controlled over the next few years and (b) doesn't cost an arm and a leg are exceedingly long, I'd say.

 
Even hoping for Porcello, i woke up today with a general expectation of seeing the Cespedes for Kennedy deal materialize. 
 
Which at this point i'm fine with. 

 

[Corsi]

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato  14s14 seconds ago
Cherington said the Red Sox have 15-20 starting pitchers they've targeted via FA or trade and have advanced conversations for a few of them.

 

[Lynchie]

 
You realize the second sentence contradicts the first, right?

Yeah, no.

 

[The Boomer]

An interesting projection of a simple bases on balls deducted from strikeouts by Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/simple-2015-pitcher-rankings/
 
Here are the top pitchers:
 
I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.
 

Name	Team	K-BB	Age	IP	GS	G	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9
Clayton Kershaw	LAN	181	27	201	32	32	226	45	10.1	2.0
Chris Sale	CHA	171	26	192	30	30	220	49	10.3	2.3
Max Scherzer	FA	166	30	189	32	32	219	53	10.4	2.5
Yu Darvish	TEX	155	28	192	30	30	224	69	10.5	3.2
Felix Hernandez	SEA	155	29	192	30	30	197	42	9.3	2.0
Madison Bumgarner	SFN	153	25	201	32	32	203	51	9.1	2.3
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	152	26	182	29	29	198	46	9.8	2.3
Yusmeiro Petit	SFN	150	30	208	30	65	198	48	8.6	2.1
Corey Kluber	CLE	149	29	192	30	30	197	48	9.2	2.2
David Price	DET	142	29	192	30	30	179	37	8.4	1.7
Matt Harvey	NYN	136	26	173	27	27	185	49	9.7	2.6
Zack Greinke	LAN	136	31	192	31	31	181	45	8.5	2.1
Masahiro Tanaka	NYA	134	26	192	31	31	171	38	8.0	1.8
Cole Hamels	PHI	129	31	182	29	29	177	48	8.7	2.4
Jon Lester	FA	128	31	195	32	32	180	52	8.3	2.4
James Shields	FA	125	33	201	32	32	175	49	7.8	2.2
Johnny Cueto	CIN	125	29	182	29	29	175	49	8.6	2.4
Phil Hughes	MIN	125	29	192	30	30	160	35	7.5	1.6
Adam Wainwright	SLN	123	33	201	32	32	167	44	7.5	2.0
Ian Kennedy	SDN	122	30	192	30	30	186	64	8.7	3.0
Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	120	29	182	30	30	155	35	7.7	1.7
Jose Fernandez	MIA	120	22	144	23	23	166	46	10.4	2.9
Jeff Samardzija	OAK	118	30	192	30	30	171	52	8.0	2.5
Danny Salazar	CLE	118	25	173	29	29	178	59	9.3	3.1
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	117	34	192	31	31	155	38	7.3	1.8
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAN	116	28	182	31	31	160	45	7.9	2.2
Mike Fiers	MIL	115	30	163	29	29	160	45	8.8	2.5
Marcus Stroman	TOR	115	24	192	31	31	168	53	7.9	2.5
Collin McHugh	HOU	112	28	192	31	31	170	58	8.0	2.7
Garrett Richards	LAA	110	27	192	30	30	174	63	8.2	3.0

 
 
Phrenelized!
 
By this Projection, relying on Steamer, Ian Kennedy is surprisingly competitive just below Cueto and Wainwright and just above Zimmerman, Fernandez, Samardzija and Salazar according to these predictions.  Cespedes for Kennedy looks good from this perspective.  Buchholz, Kelly and Kennedy (the latter two sounding like Boston pols) wouldn't be bad.  If they can't sign Lester, then a more cost effective free agent or tryouts for the last two rotation spots aren't the end of the world.  Overpaying, particularly for too many years for older pitching, almost never works out.  Lester was a special case but for 7 years and more than $150 million, I'd pass.

 

[Rasputin]

Yeah, no.

 
That's going to require an explanation.

 

[Lynchie]

 
That's going to require an explanation.

Your guys are okay but we must have a top of the rotation pitcher to go anywhere.

 

[Reverend]

An interesting projection of a simple bases on balls deducted from strikeouts by Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/simple-2015-pitcher-rankings/
 
Here are the top pitchers:
 
I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.
Name Team K-BB Age IP GS G SO BB K/9 BB/9 Clayton Kershaw LAN 181 27 201 32 32 226 45 10.1 2.0 Chris Sale CHA 171 26 192 30 30 220 49 10.3 2.3 Max Scherzer FA 166 30 189 32 32 219 53 10.4 2.5 Yu Darvish TEX 155 28 192 30 30 224 69 10.5 3.2 Felix Hernandez SEA 155 29 192 30 30 197 42 9.3 2.0 Madison Bumgarner SFN 153 25 201 32 32 203 51 9.1 2.3 Stephen Strasburg WAS 152 26 182 29 29 198 46 9.8 2.3 Yusmeiro Petit SFN 150 30 208 30 65 198 48 8.6 2.1 Corey Kluber CLE 149 29 192 30 30 197 48 9.2 2.2 David Price DET 142 29 192 30 30 179 37 8.4 1.7 Matt Harvey NYN 136 26 173 27 27 185 49 9.7 2.6 Zack Greinke LAN 136 31 192 31 31 181 45 8.5 2.1 Masahiro Tanaka NYA 134 26 192 31 31 171 38 8.0 1.8 Cole Hamels PHI 129 31 182 29 29 177 48 8.7 2.4 Jon Lester FA 128 31 195 32 32 180 52 8.3 2.4 James Shields FA 125 33 201 32 32 175 49 7.8 2.2 Johnny Cueto CIN 125 29 182 29 29 175 49 8.6 2.4 Phil Hughes MIN 125 29 192 30 30 160 35 7.5 1.6 Adam Wainwright SLN 123 33 201 32 32 167 44 7.5 2.0 Ian Kennedy SDN 122 30 192 30 30 186 64 8.7 3.0 Jordan Zimmermann WAS 120 29 182 30 30 155 35 7.7 1.7 Jose Fernandez MIA 120 22 144 23 23 166 46 10.4 2.9 Jeff Samardzija OAK 118 30 192 30 30 171 52 8.0 2.5 Danny Salazar CLE 118 25 173 29 29 178 59 9.3 3.1 Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 117 34 192 31 31 155 38 7.3 1.8 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN 116 28 182 31 31 160 45 7.9 2.2 Mike Fiers MIL 115 30 163 29 29 160 45 8.8 2.5 Marcus Stroman TOR 115 24 192 31 31 168 53 7.9 2.5 Collin McHugh HOU 112 28 192 31 31 170 58 8.0 2.7 Garrett Richards LAA 110 27 192 30 30 174 63 8.2 3.0
 
 
By this Projection, relying on Steamer, Ian Kennedy is surprisingly competitive just below Cueto and Wainwright and just above Zimmerman, Fernandez, Samardzija and Salazar according to these predictions.  Cespedes for Kennedy looks good from this perspective.  Buchholz, Kelly and Kennedy (the latter two sounding like Boston pols) wouldn't be bad.  If they can't sign Lester, then a more cost effective free agent or tryouts for the last two rotation spots aren't the end of the world.  Overpaying, particularly for too many years for older pitching, almost never works out.  Lester was a special case but for 7 years and more than $150 million, I'd pass.

 
Please report to the phrenilizer.

 

[chawson]

How about some lesser known cost controlled pitchers nobody here has mentioned who could be revelations without costing the kitchen sink?  Here is my nomination:
 
Danny Salazar with the Indians:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml
 
Who else fits this description?  Discuss.

 
I don't hate this idea. Even if it means we take on Nick Swisher with the Indians eating some of that contract, I don't think it's impossible. Especially since Cleveland just traded for the very Swisher-like Brandon Moss.
 
If we can get a good haul for Napoli, it might be very interesting.
 
edit: grammar