Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

[BeantownIdaho]

McAdams: The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
 
Why not trade him to the Yankees....clear out all their best talent in the minors then have him resign with Boston

 

[jimbobim]

McAdams: The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
 
Why not trade him to the Yankees....clear out all their best talent in the minors then have him resign with Boston

 
Makes sense but I'd assume Bundy or Stroman would have to be the centerpiece price for the O's or Jays. Only comparable to those actually listed. 

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

McAdams: The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
 
Why not trade him to the Yankees....clear out all their best talent in the minors then have him resign with Boston

 
The Yankees don't have any prospects to offer that would be remotely competitive with what we could get from another team.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

 
 
Why not trade him to the Yankees....clear out all their best talent in the minors then have him resign with Boston

I couldnt figure that out either.  They have the deepest pockets, so if they want him, they're going to sign him no matter where he is in Sept and October.
 
Unless that's the Sox subtle way of saying there's not much worthwhile in the MFY system right now......?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I couldnt figure that out either.  They have the deepest pockets, so if they want him, they're going to sign him no matter where he is in Sept and October.
 
Unless that's the Sox subtle way of saying there's not much worthwhile in the MFY system right now......?

They don't need to be subtle. Like Rip said, they don't have much down on the farm. You also need to take the PR hit in to account if they were to trade him to the Yankees.

 

[chrisfont9]

I couldnt figure that out either.  They have the deepest pockets, so if they want him, they're going to sign him no matter where he is in Sept and October.
 
Unless that's the Sox subtle way of saying there's not much worthwhile in the MFY system right now......?

My guess would be they don't want him getting comfortable with the idea of being a Yankee. Toronto, Baltimore, KC, even Seattle… he'll come back. [at the right price]

 

[TomRicardo]

McAdams: The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
 
Why not trade him to the Yankees....clear out all their best talent in the minors then have him resign with Boston

 
Because they don't have an elite prospect.  They have Gary Sanchez aka the poor man's Swihart or Luis Severino (poor man's Rubby de la Rosa).

 

[Joe Shlabotnick]

 
Makes sense but I'd assume Bundy or Stroman would have to be the centerpiece price for the O's or Jays. Only comparable to those actually listed. 

 
I absolutely hate the idea of trading him within the division, especially to the O's. Plus, Bundy is just coming back from TJ surgery, so he is not close to being useful at this point.

 

[czar]

 
I absolutely hate the idea of trading him within the division, especially to the O's. Plus, Bundy is just coming back from TJ surgery, so he is not close to being useful at this point.

 
People need to get over this.
 
If the best offer for a Jon Lester rental comes from within the division, you take the offer from within the division.
 
It's ludicrous to suggest that if the Orioles want to trip over themselves and massively overpay with Bundy, you'd say "nope, sorry, we like top-10 prospects, but not within the division.
 
The algebra is somewhat different if Lester was locked up for 6 more years at $15 million (and you have to see him 4 times a year going forward), but then again, this whole trading him thing wouldn't be an issue if he was.
 
FWIW, Bundy is tossing well in the minors and would be a viable candidate for a starting rotation in 2015 (he actually might be up with the O's as a RP in the next month or two).

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
I absolutely hate the idea of trading him within the division, especially to the O's. Plus, Bundy is just coming back from TJ surgery, so he is not close to being useful at this point.

 
I have a bigger problem trading him for more pitching prospects instead of a Pederson/Seager/Polanco type.

 

[LuckyBen]

 
I absolutely hate the idea of trading him within the division, especially to the O's. Plus, Bundy is just coming back from TJ surgery, so he is not close to being useful at this point.

 
 
I'd love to have Bundy or Stroman, but we really need to pick up an impact bat if we trade Lester. Yankees have nothing that I think should interest the Sox.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
People need to get over this.
 
If the best offer for a Jon Lester rental comes from within the division, you take the offer from within the division.
 
It's ludicrous to suggest that if the Orioles want to trip over themselves and massively overpay with Bundy, you'd say "nope, sorry, we like top-10 prospects, but not within the division).
 
The algebra is somewhat different if Lester was locked up for 6 more years at $15 million, but then again, this wouldn't be an issue if he was.
 
FWIW, Bundy is tossing well in the minors and would be a viable candidate for a starting rotation in 2015 (he actually should be up with the O's in the next month or two.

 
Yeah, I've come around on this. We're not winning anything this year. Therefore, it doesn't really matter if we help one of our divisional rivals do so. A Lester trade within the division is win-win as long as Lester doesn't sign within the division (except with us). In fact, if a divisional rival trades us good prospects for Lester, then we've used our temporary suck to make ourselves better at the expense of a competitor, which is awesome. If Lester would then sign back with us it would be absolutely the most optimal outcome of this situation; but it's still a good outcome as long as he signs outside the division, preferably in the NL.

 

[moondog80]

 
I have a bigger problem trading him for more pitching prospects instead of a Pederson/Seager/Polanco type.

 
 
Just get the pieces with the most value, they're almost certainly lining up for a prospects-for-star deal in the offseason.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

MLBTR just posted a summary of Olney's latest column. I'm not an Insider, so I can't read the original, but one of the tidbits MLBTR passes along is this:
 

 
Olney also spoke with a close friend of Lester, who told him that there’s “no chance” Lester will sign with the Sox at this point.

 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/olneys-latest-marlins-lester-phils-suzuki-kemp.html
 
I'm not prepared to take this as gospel just yet, but it makes sense, and it's pretty fucking sad. It's just starting to hit me how much it's going to suck to lose this guy.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

MLBTR just posted a summary of Olney's latest column. I'm not an Insider, so I can't read the original, but one of the tidbits MLBTR passes along is this:
 
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/olneys-latest-marlins-lester-phils-suzuki-kemp.html
 
I'm not prepared to take this as gospel just yet, but it makes sense, and it's pretty fucking sad. It's just starting to hit me how much it's going to suck to lose this guy.

Could that mean "at this time, but I'd love to in the offseason"?
 
God, please make this deadline clock speed up.  I just want to know who we'll field and which areas need addressing for next season as soon as possible.  All this back and forth (including my .02 here and there) is getting way out of control.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The likelihood that Lester will returm to Boston as a FA is very low. That shouldn't even enter into the equation of where he is to be traded. When he goes, it's highly likely he will not return to the Red Sox.

 

[LondonSox]

I just don't understand the spring issues.
He said he was willing to stay and stay sub market.
 
The sox either
1) Misjudged the hell out the market (my view). Compounded by a great season by Lester
2) Don't want to sign guys in their 30s to big deals period. Especially pitchers.
 
If it's 2, then they should have been thinking and planning their next move for months. I may not 100% agree but I repsect the view, as long as they have an actual plan on how to turn talent into MLB performance without the horror show they ahve been doing for RDLR, Webster etc.
 
If it's 1) then they suck. There is no excuse for farming this so badly

 

[Harry Hooper]

How much dialogue are they having with Lester about his destination, I wonder? Have they asked for an order of preference? If he wants to go to STL (or wherever), but LA has a slightly better offer, do you send him to STL and hope the goodwill carries into the offseason? Is it worth it? 
 
Balancing all factors, how are we handicapping the field? 
 
1. LAD
2. TOR
3. PIT
4. STL
5. BAL 
 
? 

 
Factoring in need and urgency to win now, the Blue Jays seem to be the best candidate for yielding to temptation and surrendering quality personnel. As a bonus, Ben can cite "trading within the division" as justification for an enhanced return.

 

[glennhoffmania]

MLBTR just posted a summary of Olney's latest column. I'm not an Insider, so I can't read the original, but one of the tidbits MLBTR passes along is this:
 
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/olneys-latest-marlins-lester-phils-suzuki-kemp.html
 
I'm not prepared to take this as gospel just yet, but it makes sense, and it's pretty fucking sad. It's just starting to hit me how much it's going to suck to lose this guy.

 
It's fucking bullshit that a team with these resources now has no chance to sign one of the best pitchers they've had in a long time. They better know that Lester's arm is about to fall off.  Otherwise this was a monumental fuck up from the start.

 

[smastroyin]

I think there are other sanity based options for why the FO have acted the way they have.  I don't like them, but it could also be:
 
1)  Henry, et al, sees the new flood of money in MLB drying up very soon and doesn't want to be locked into the current spending spree which is reminiscent of the late 90's before market correct in about 2002.  
2)  While they are happy to spend money and have done very right by Red Sox fans, I don't think anyone would be surprised if it came out that these guys were part of a more hardline group of owners trying to restrict player salary, even if their reasons are altruistic (see reason 1) rather than just greed.  
 
The reason I think number 2 is plausible is that I honestly think the owners thought they were going to be bringing overall salary expenditure down with the last CBA.  But this is obviously tinfoil hat territory.  

 

[moondog80]

 
It's fucking bullshit that a team with these resources now has no chance to sign one of the best pitchers they've had in a long time. They better know that Lester's arm is about to fall off.  Otherwise this was a monumental fuck up from the start.

 
 
Just to offer a different POV, this is exactly what Yankee fans would have said had they let CC or A-Rod walk when they opted out.  .And what Cardinals fans said when they let Pujols walk.  And what Rangers fans said when they let Hamilton walk.  And what Tigers fans would have said had they not extended Verlander and his 4.79 ERA.  There's a very good chance we'll be glad Lester is elsewhere in a couple of years.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
 
Per Swartz at the Hardball Times:
 

Since just 2002, baseball player total salaries as a share of new revenue has declined from 56 percent to 40 percent. That’s right—even though the average payroll has gone up by 58 percent, revenue has gone up by 122 percent
 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

#2 certainly seems plausible. #1 won't be a major issue until the current national TV deal expires in 2021.

Getting back to Keri's article this off-season- it really might be that they don't believe in a "top-heavy roster" (key quote below) and are dead set against giving out deals longer than "x" or for a higher AAV than "x". I think it's a rigid philosophy which is destined to fail, but giving a 7 year, $150M deal to Lester probably won't be a great deal in the long run either.

 
Or that they just don't believe in doing that for pitchers in their 30s (or pitchers who aren't among the truly top level elite talents in the game).  I think that's really the Occam's Razor explanation.  They simply don't think 7/150 or even 6/130 to this particular player represents good value for their money.  Some might agree and some might not but its not like that is an indefensible position by any means.
 
Losing Lester burns me too but if the decision is Joc Pederson or Oscar Taveras for six cost controlled years versus Lester for 6/140, its not hard to see why some people might pick the former.

 

[MakMan44]

 
That might be true, but I don't think their prospects match up with LAD, PIT or STL. I don't really see Daniel Norris or Aaron Sanchez being a huge win for the Sox and their best positional prospects are slap hitting OFs and a C. We have those. 
 
I don't see STL moving Tavares, but obviously if they did, you'd think they win. Seager/Pederson/Urias all trump TOR. As do Glasnow/Bell/Polanco/Taillon or even Meadows. I dunno, I know we are hearing TOR is being aggressive, I just don't think they have the bullets to outbid. 

Pompey and Daniel Norris are nothing to sneeze at. If they're willing to give up the pair, I think they'll end up with Lester because I have a hard time seeing any other team giving up a combination of talent like that.  
 
I can honestly say I want nothing to do with Sanchez though

 

[AbbyNoho]

 
It's fucking bullshit that a team with these resources now has no chance to sign one of the best pitchers they've had in a long time. They better know that Lester's arm is about to fall off.  Otherwise this was a monumental fuck up from the start.

 
I don't really get why people keep saying this. It's not that the Red Sox can't afford him. It's that they don't want to risk a long-term contract on a position and age combination that has historically been a very poor investment. They are trying to balance the risk of hurting the team long term vs helping it short term.
 
Now, I totally get if people want to disagree with that. I want Lester back too. But it's disingenuous to suggest they're just being cheap. They are just valuing the risks to the team differently.
 
 

 
 
Just to offer a different POV, this is exactly what Yankee fans would have said had they let CC or A-Rod walk when they opted out.  .And what Cardinals fans said when they let Pujols walk.  And what Rangers fans said when they let Hamilton walk.  And what Tigers fans would have said had they not extended Verlander and his 4.79 ERA.  There's a very good chance we'll be glad Lester is elsewhere in a couple of years.

 
Exactly. I'm 100% sure they'd be willing to pay a huge amount of money long term for today's Jon Lester. But there is a a significant chance they'd be paying a huge amount of money long term for today's CC Sabathia. 

 

[DJnVa]

EDIT: Never mind, I see it.

 

[mauf]

I think there are other sanity based options for why the FO have acted the way they have.  I don't like them, but it could also be:
 
1)  Henry, et al, sees the new flood of money in MLB drying up very soon and doesn't want to be locked into the current spending spree which is reminiscent of the late 90's before market correct in about 2002.  
2)  While they are happy to spend money and have done very right by Red Sox fans, I don't think anyone would be surprised if it came out that these guys were part of a more hardline group of owners trying to restrict player salary, even if their reasons are altruistic (see reason 1) rather than just greed.  
 
The reason I think number 2 is plausible is that I honestly think the owners thought they were going to be bringing overall salary expenditure down with the last CBA.  But this is obviously tinfoil hat territory.  

Or #3, they are committed to staying below the CBT threshold and can therefore afford only 1-2 star players at FA prices, and given the makeup of the farm system (lots of arms, no power hitters), they have decided that giving $25mm per year to an SP is a poor use of resources.

Or #4, they are so dead-set against giving a 6 or 7-year, market-rate deal to any pitcher that they will trade from their prospect depth and/or sign a lesser FA (such as Shields) to avoid those extra years of club control.

I could go on.

I'll be sad to see Lester go, but if you take emotional arguments off the table, there are a lot more reasons to let him go than there are to sign him. These deals usually end badly for the club, and the FO evidently isn't convinced by whatever private information they have that Lester will beat the odds.

 

[Corsi]

 Lester is in the midst of the best season of his career, and according to one major league source, the Sox have notified teams that they would need to get at least one, if not two, elite-level prospects in return, a high price to pay given Lester would represent a two-month rental for any acquiring team.
 
"From what I've heard they're not shopping him, but will listen to overpay offers," one major-league source said today.
 

 

http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/07/the_search_for_power_what_red_sox_figure_to_seek_in_a

 

[Plympton91]

I just don't understand the spring issues.
He said he was willing to stay and stay sub market.
 
The sox either
1) Misjudged the hell out the market (my view). Compounded by a great season by Lester
2) Don't want to sign guys in their 30s to big deals period. Especially pitchers.
 
If it's 2, then they should have been thinking and planning their next move for months. I may not 100% agree but I repsect the view, as long as they have an actual plan on how to turn talent into MLB performance without the horror show they ahve been doing for RDLR, Webster etc.
 
If it's 1) then they suck. There is no excuse for farming this so badly

I think equally importantly they misjudged how likely it was that he would have one of the best season's of his career. Back in the spring, I hypothesized that maybe they wanted to watch until the all-star break to see if he was going to be playoff Lester or first-half of 2013 Lester. Then the theory was they'd pay up the money they wouldn't in the spring with the increased assurance that whatever Farrell did to fix him in the second half of last season was durable. Given that they had access to Farrell and can observe an other changes in Lester's training, preparation, or nutritional habits, it seems like they should have been able to figure that out without the extra half season, but so be it. Yet, the break came and went, Lester's side is still floating highly reasonable contract terms, and the Red Sox are sitting on their hands. This just makes no sense.

 

[Doctor G]

Or #3, they are committed to staying below the CBT threshold and can therefore afford only 1-2 star players at FA prices, and given the makeup of the farm system (lots of arms, no power hitters), they have decided that giving $25mm per year to an SP is a poor use of resources.

Or #4, they are so dead-set against giving a 6 or 7-year, market-rate deal to any pitcher that they will trade from their prospect depth and/or sign a lesser FA (such as Shields) to avoid those extra years of club control.

I could go on.

I'll be sad to see Lester go, but if you take emotional arguments off the table, there are a lot more reasons to let him go than there are to sign him. These deals usually end badly for the club, and the FO evidently isn't convinced by whatever private information they have that Lester will beat the odds.

Maybe they are afraid that some team will decide to attack Lester by bunting directly at him  until he proves he can throw to first. Or more likely they are concerned with his workload over the last three years.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Regarding those who think we should even think of shipping him to the Yankees if their offer is tops, lucchino will never ever ever allow that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think equally importantly they misjudged how likely it was that he would have one of the best season's of his career. Back in the spring, I hypothesized that maybe they wanted to watch until the all-star break to see if he was going to be playoff Lester or first-half of 2013 Lester. Then the theory was they'd pay up the money they wouldn't in the spring with the increased assurance that whatever Farrell did to fix him in the second half of last season was durable. Given that they had access to Farrell and can observe an other changes in Lester's training, preparation, or nutritional habits, it seems like they should have been able to figure that out without the extra half season, but so be it. Yet, the break came and went, Lester's side is still floating highly reasonable contract terms, and the Red Sox are sitting on their hands. This just makes no sense.

 
Wait, what did I miss? I haven't heard anybody floating anything lately. I've heard lots of talk about what people did float back in March or December or whatever, but that's not the same thing. Can you point me to this?

 

[snowmanny]

 
I don't really get why people keep saying this. It's not that the Red Sox can't afford him. It's that they don't want to risk a long-term contract on a
position and age combination that has historically been a very poor investment. They are trying to balance the risk of hurting the team long term vs helping it short term.
 
Now, I totally get if people want to disagree with that. I want Lester back too. But it's disingenuous
to suggest they're just being cheap. They are just valuing the risks to the team differently.

 
Exactly. I'm 100% sure they'd be willing to pay a
huge amount of money long term for today's Jon Lester. But there is a a significant chance they'd be paying a huge amount of money long term for today's CC Sabathia. 

I do not think they are cheap but I am wondering how they propose to spend their money in a way that makes them competitive next year. (Obviously they did this between 2012 and 2013 but there was considerable risk there as well: a lot of those moves weren't helpful in 2014 such as Victorino, Peavy, Gomes, Drew and they were bailed out on Dempster).

 

[KillerBs]

Yes, it appears the owners have decided that it isn't good value to pay Lester something "approaching his market value."
 
The question then arises whether it is "good value" for us to remain invested in rooting for a team that refuses, on principle, to pay its long term players, something apporaching market value. 
 
Looks like we are left to root for a team of kids and rehab bargains.
 
The argument that paying Lester is robbing Peter to pay Paul, they are holding on to that money to stay under the luxury tax, to spend on others etc., is unsustainable. The team has very little by way of payroll obligation going forward, is overloaded with guys ready to play at more or less minimum wage, and has more than enough payroll flexibility to pay Lester something "approaching his market value" without compromising its ability to make the limited other acquisitions required while staying well under the luxury tax. 
 
I suppose the future will reveal, but it looks like it's just about profit taking to me.

 

[ivanvamp]

If I'm Lester, at this point there's no way I don't test the FA market. Thus there is no advantage gained by the team trading for him in terms of added time to negotiate with him, so trading him to Baltimore, for example, only helps them for the rest of this season, while the big time prospect(s) the Sox get in return could help the Sox for years to come.

In other words, I have no problem trading him to the O's or Jays. Heck, if the Sox can't win it this year, I'm fine hoping the O's or Jays do. Good for them, and it enhances the prestige of the AL East.

And then Lester is going to sign with whoever he is going to sign with in the offseason. Hopefully by then Sox' ownership comes around.

 

[bosockboy]

Seems like these would be awkward sales calls for Cherington....he sells Lester as a durable, playoff-tested workhorse lefty, but he must be asked "then why don't you want to resign him?"

 

[someoneanywhere]

 
Wait, what did I miss? I haven't heard anybody floating anything lately. I've heard lots of talk about what people did float back in March or December or whatever, but that's not the same thing. Can you point me to this?

 
You haven't missed anything. All Lester has said for public consumption is an intimation that his value has crept toward the market, without bothering to define what market means to his side. When everyone calms the hell down and quits playing GM or I Know Better Because I Know a Guy, I bet for him the years are more important than the cash (relatively speaking), and that for the Sox, the years, also, are more important than the cash. They would probably pay Lester $22-25 million a year: but only for 4 years. Anything guaranteed beyond that, no chance. And Lester for his part perceives his "discount" in the money, and takes back the years. That is where they are. Why should he come back to Boston on limited time only to go through all this again in 3-4 years? He wants the time. 
 
I am not GM. I don't Know a Guy. I don't know any better than anyone on the board. But when Lester continues to talk about security in personal rather than pecuniary terms -- family, routine, knowing what he knows and being comfortable with it -- I'm thinking I am listening okay. 

 

[jimbobim]

The field and what they have to offer for Lester and Lackey ( if they package them together it would be essentially taking a page out of Theo's book) 
 
1) Cardinals- Can't really be touched with Tavares and Martinez being the top two prizes IMHO I don't know who would hang up first if the Sox offered Lester Lackey Miller and the corpse of Doubie for Tavares and Martinez but im just spitballing. 
 
2) Dodgers- Pederson or Seager 
 
3) Pirates - Bell or Polanco( unlikely by far I would say) but as has been noted very deep system lot to choose from
 
4) O's- Bundy 
 
5) Jays- Stroman and the other guy thats been in rumors for months Sanchez I think ? 
 
The O's and Jays don't really have the upside bat to offer. Trying to get Tavares out of STL would be my ultimate goal.(obviously very hard but Waino Lester Lackey Wacha(when he returns) would greatly help their bid to overtake the Brew Crew and make some a serious run to the WS again. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Seems like these would be awkward sales calls for Cherington....he sells Lester as a durable, playoff-tested workhorse lefty, but he must be asked "then why don't you want to resign him?"

 
I think the answer there is simple.  He's great for this year.  The Sox are worried about him still being that workhorse lefty in 2018, 2019, and 2020 if they re-sign him.

 

[smastroyin]

 
Dodgers Stadium has been rated 25th, 28th, 25th, 22nd, and 23rd in terms of Park Factor since 2010.  Fenway has been 19th, 20th, 3rd, 3rd, and 7th.  That seems like a pretty cut-and-dried improvement for him, especially factoring in he would be a guy like Millar, Gomes, etc. in the dead-pull righty category who typically gain an added advantage at Fenway.  In LF there's probably close to a 40-50 foot difference at Fenway vs. Dodgers Stadium.

 
Getting beyond the basics of why you can't just apply park factors the way you implied, I just wanted to mention that Kemp is not a dead pull righty with his fly balls.  
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=5631&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=5631&ss1=2012&se1=2014&ss2=2012&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL
 
Given this spray chart Fenway may actually hurt him, as the short porch will allow fielders to take away some of his line drive hits and turn a bunch of those 2B into singles and those two factors will likely mitigate his flyball outs turning into 2B or the occasional HR, to say nothing of the giant right field.  This doesn't mean he wouldn't adjust, it just means that there is no actual evidence right now that Matt Kemp is either especially hurt by Chavez Ravine or would be especially helped by Fenway.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

The best way to avoid paying top FA salaries to guys in their mid-to-late 30s is to extend them when they're in their mid-20s.  That requires that you HAVE them in their mid-20s.  Maybe X will be a great extension candidate.  Or Betts.  Or RDLR/Webster/Workman/Ranaudo/Barnes.  If we're lucky, the Sox will have a half-dozen foundational pieces to lock up over the next 3 years to long term deals securing all of their prime years.  If so, we could be looking back then and saying that not extending Lester was wise.
 
But we're not there yet.  Right now, not extending Lester and possibly dealing Lackey feels like it's opening up a huge hole and creating massive uncertainty, because, well, it is.  The timing frankly stinks.  IMO, that's why many on the board think the Sox should simply bite the bullet even now and offer Lester big $ to ensure that they can fill the top of rotation need over the next two years with a guy who's both good and "one of us."  I understand why the team might be unwilling to do so, but I hope if that's the case it's because they are planning to go get Stanton or a similarly young building block player to lock up with big $ for his prime years.
 
Edit:  And if a deal for Stanton etc is what they're aiming for, then trading our valuable rentals for ammo to make that deal without gutting our farm system makes sense.

 

[dcmissle]

If the reports are true, Ben needs to sell very little. "Jon is healthy, and his performance speaks for itself."

The reason is that crediting those reports, we are in auction territory. Submit your best offer.

Fully expect this to go through Friday unless the RS are overwhelmed by some trade partner.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
 
Just to offer a different POV, this is exactly what Yankee fans would have said had they let CC or A-Rod walk when they opted out.  .And what Cardinals fans said when they let Pujols walk.  And what Rangers fans said when they let Hamilton walk.  And what Tigers fans would have said had they not extended Verlander and his 4.79 ERA.  There's a very good chance we'll be glad Lester is elsewhere in a couple of years.

 
Sure, but there are also big contracts that worked out just fine.  If the Sox for some reason don't think that Lester is the guy they want to commit to long term, fine.  But all we keep hearing is that they won't sign pitchers into their 30s.  I don't see how that philosophy can work.  And unless there's something we don't know, like Lester has some sort of major health risk, I don't understand how he wouldn't be the type of guy you take a shot on.  Also...
 

 
 
I don't really get why people keep saying this. It's not that the Red Sox can't afford him. It's that they don't want to risk a long-term contract on a position and age combination that has historically been a very poor investment. They are trying to balance the risk of hurting the team long term vs helping it short term.
 
Now, I totally get if people want to disagree with that. I want Lester back too. But it's disingenuous to suggest they're just being cheap. They are just valuing the risks to the team differently.
 
 

 

 
None of the numbers we've been talking about over the last couple of months come close to anything like Sabathia, Verlander, ARod, Pujols, etc. got.  If Lester said he wanted Felix money or he was walking, fine.  Is there any evidence that he said that?  Again, we have his comments about Bailey and his comments about Scherzer.  If they don't think he's worth a little more than Bailey then what's the plan?  Are they hoping that Zimmermann or Kluber or Fernandez will give them a bigger discount?  Who do they think can fill the Pedro/Schilling/Lester role when it comes to winning a short series? 

 

[Harry Hooper]

Seems like these would be awkward sales calls for Cherington....he sells Lester as a durable, playoff-tested workhorse lefty, but he must be asked "then why don't you want to resign him?"

 
That's not hard:
 
1) My principal owner was severely traumatized by the Carl Crawford experience.
2) My principal owner thinks the MLB talent market can be played like the stock market.
3) My principal owner thinks "#1 starters are on their way out, Mr. Epstein."   

 

[Corsi]

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  14s
Possible dynamic in #RedSox talks: Lester, Lackey are close. Lackey may not want to play for $500K in ’15 or sign extensn if Lester is gone.
 

 

[ivanvamp]

 
It's fucking bullshit that a team with these resources now has no chance to sign one of the best pitchers they've had in a long time. They better know that Lester's arm is about to fall off.  Otherwise this was a monumental fuck up from the start.

 
Well, we better get used to the idea of Lester not pitching for the Sox.  In fact, after 2012 a lot of people here easily envisioned the Sox being without him.  In fact, many people wanted him off this team so fast it would make your head spin.  
 
The fact is that, while I really, REALLY want Lester back, I think they'll find a way to put together a pretty good ball club if he's not.

 

[moondog80]

 
Sure, but there are also big contracts that worked out just fine. 

Not many.  A very small number compared to the ones that fail.
 
That said, if you're going to avoid long term deals like this, it makes it very difficult to fully use your payroll advantage.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The field and what they have to offer for Lester and Lackey ( if they package them together it would be essentially taking a page out of Theo's book) 
 
1) Cardinals- Can't really be touched with Tavares and Martinez being the top two prizes IMHO I don't know who would hang up first if the Sox offered Lester Lackey Miller and the corpse of Doubie for Tavares and Martinez but im just spitballing. 
 
2) Dodgers- Pederson or Seager 
 
3) Pirates - Bell or Polanco( unlikely by far I would say) but as has been noted very deep system lot to choose from
 
4) O's- Bundy 
 
5) Jays- Stroman and the other guy thats been in rumors for months Sanchez I think ? 
 
The O's and Jays don't really have the upside bat to offer. Trying to get Tavares out of STL would be my ultimate goal.(obviously very hard but Waino Lester Lackey Wacha(when he returns) would greatly help their bid to overtake the Brew Crew and make some a serious run to the WS again. 

 
There might be other smaller moving parts as well.  Basically, any legitimate contender who buys Lester and Lackey becomes the odds on favorite to win the WS.  Plus they have a negotiating window with Lester (while he's being feted for a WS victory?), control over Lackey for at least one extra year (or two/three if extended). 
 
A lot depends on what teams consider their window of opportunity and the benefits in winning a WS.  The O's last won a WS in '83.  The Dodgers in '88.   The Jays in '93.  The Pirates in '79.

 

[wine111]

 
People need to get over this.
 
If the best offer for a Jon Lester rental comes from within the division, you take the offer from within the division.
 
It's ludicrous to suggest that if the Orioles want to trip over themselves and massively overpay with Bundy, you'd say "nope, sorry, we like top-10 prospects, but not within the division.
 
The algebra is somewhat different if Lester was locked up for 6 more years at $15 million (and you have to see him 4 times a year going forward), but then again, this whole trading him thing wouldn't be an issue if he was.
 
FWIW, Bundy is tossing well in the minors and would be a viable candidate for a starting rotation in 2015 (he actually might be up with the O's as a RP in the next month or two).

I think Lester will go and we have to take Matt Kemp at about half price along with getting Joc Pederson as part of a larger deal.  The Red Sox and Dodgers are linked by thier last big trade which enabled the Red Sox to win the 2013 World Series and I think the Red Sox don't mind keeping the trade pipelines open to the Dodgers, who have a track record of finding and signing good quality young talent.  Hopefully Uehara is traded somewhere as well before he breaks down again and loses value.  The Red Sox badly need a quality young hitter as we have few if any in the minor leagues.  We have arms that we are developing so we need some bats to balance our team. 

 

[LostinNJ]

Just by the way, "two-month rental" is inaccurate. If the team he goes to makes the postseason, he's a three-month rental, and the last month is kind of important.