Trea Turner to sign with the Phillies

BigSoxFan

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I love Trea Turner as a player but, man, that's a spicy meatball. Good on Philly for playing a hand though. That lineup is going to be great once Harper gets back.
 

grimshaw

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The 27 AAV won't hurt nearly as much 8 years down the line when he isn't great but damn, that's a long one. I thought he'd be a 35 mill per guy.
 

Ale Xander

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Impressed they got him under 30 aav

good news for Red Sox to keep x

Odds get better if Dodgers get Correa
 

radsoxfan

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These super long contracts at less AAV are almost just like deferred $ deals. Doubt they’re banking on him being much at age 40.

They probably look at it like 8/275 or something.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Wild that he's signed longer than Harper. I guess those two really wanted to play together for a while.

How the hell they're going to pay Aaron Nola I do not know, but I guess maybe they're counting on building around Abel and Painter within the foreseeable future and think they can splurge on hitting which their farm is...sorely lacking in.
 

DanoooME

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Turner SS
Schwarber LF
Realmuto C
Harper DH/RF
Hoskins 1B
Castellanos RF/DH
Bohm 3B
Stott 2B
Marsh CF

Pretty good lineup once healthy.
 

mikcou

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These super long contracts at less AAV are almost just like deferred $ deals. Doubt they’re banking on him being much at age 40.

They probably look at it like 8/275 or something.
Agreed, its just a shorter deferral/financing device rather than have typical deferred money while the player isnt on the roster anymore. I figured that Turner was going to be in the 8/240 to 9/275 range so I was surprised at the $300M, but I think you're right this is just a current value/salary deferral play for them and those last few back years are meaningless/adding very little to total contract value and are there to spread the total number out.

All of these deals really have their value in the first 5-6 years depending on exact age (perhaps 7 for a really young 25/26 year old FA) in any event.
 

BigSoxFan

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Turner SS
Schwarber LF
Realmuto C
Harper DH/RF
Hoskins 1B
Castellanos RF/DH
Bohm 3B
Stott 2B
Marsh CF

Pretty good lineup once healthy.
Castellanos is probably a deal they would love to get out of. He was pretty awful last year.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Dombrowski has the best job. He gets to build fantasy teams with billionaires money and then go to the next town.
Serious question, but has Dombrowski shown he’s an excellent evaluator of talent overall? He’s in the industry and knows how to do the job, but in terms of deciding on free agent signings, they’re choices any one of us here - or any other GM could make if they have the resources. Giving out the biggest contracts to superstar players isn’t exactly a talent.

But on the other hand, if ownership decides to GFIN and trade away a bunch of prospects in a couple of years (like Donbrowski did here), Chaim Bloom might not be the guy for the job of tearing apart his farm system, and other executives might not have the stomach to trade a guy like Marcello Mayer for a more expensive, but elite(-ish) starting pitcher or something.
 

Kliq

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I'm so tired of seeing the "Well he is going to be worth nothing when he is 40 and he will be making a fortune!" lines when these contracts come up. As discussed above, it makes sense when using length to get the AAV down, and it looks like the Phillies have used that strategy a few times now in order to remain within whatever (very large) budget Dombroski has been given.
 

Kliq

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Serious question, but has Dombrowski shown he’s an excellent evaluator of talent overall? He’s in the industry and knows how to do the job, but in terms of deciding on free agent signings, they’re choices any one of us here - or any other GM could make if they have the resources. Giving out the biggest contracts to superstar players isn’t exactly a talent.

But on the other hand, if ownership decides to GFIN and trade away a bunch of prospects in a couple of years (like Donbrowski did here), Chaim Bloom might not be the guy for the job of tearing apart his farm system, and other executives might not have the stomach to trade a guy like Marcello Mayer for a more expensive, but elite(-ish) starting pitcher or something.
I think Dombrowski is probably a little underrated as far as his true ability. I'd imagine most owners would be satisfied with bringing in a GM who is willing to spend, but has a long track record of identifying who the right people to give money to and turn out a winning team. It's not like Dombrowski is surprising these owners with his spending, they are clearly signing up for a guy who is going to use a big budget to build a winner, and he has a track record of doing that in a succesful way.

He spent and won a title with the Marlins. Then when tasked with selling the players off, he spent the next few years rebuilding and when the team won again in 2003, it was largely done with a core of players Dombrowski had acquired. He went to Detroit and turned a terrible franchise into a team that was fairly unlucky to win a World Series title during his tenure. He went to Boston and identified the right players to pay and built an 108 juggernaut that cruised to another title. He's got another strong team in Philly now.

It's an unconventional resume, and one that is easy to dismiss as having good fortune, but it's hard to deny that he hasn't been extremely effective in that role, and I question how many other GMs would be as successful if they were put in the same positions.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I'm so tired of seeing the "Well he is going to be worth nothing when he is 40 and he will be making a fortune!" lines when these contracts come up. As discussed above, it makes sense when using length to get the AAV down, and it looks like the Phillies have used that strategy a few times now in order to remain within whatever (very large) budget Dombroski has been given.
People conveniently forget the five to six years of above average production that they’ll get before Player X becomes an albatross on the payroll.

“In 2031, the Phillies will be really sorry! Then we’ll have our last laugh!”
 

OCD SS

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People conveniently forget the five to six years of above average production that they’ll get before Player X becomes an albatross on the payroll.

“In 2031, the Phillies will be really sorry! Then we’ll have our last laugh!”
5 - 6 years of above average production seems a little optimistic. Player’s primes seem to have shifted to being a bit younger. How many 34 year olds are we seeing putting up above average production (especially at SS)?
 

jon abbey

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5 - 6 years of above average production seems a little optimistic. Player’s primes seem to have shifted to being a bit younger. How many 34 year olds are we seeing putting up above average production (especially at SS)?
Yeah, the deals that hurt are the ones where the guy becomes useless almost right away: Rendon, Miguel Cabrera's current deal, Pujols with LAA, Strasburg, Jason Heyward, there are a lot.
 

amfox1

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https://theathletic.com/3973611/2022/12/05/phillies-trea-turner-300-million-deal/?source=emp_shared_article

Turner, according to sources, was the team’s first choice — even if signing him meant surrendering two draft picks (second and fifth round) and $1 million in international bonus pool money because he received a qualifying offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Carlos Correa, who was not attached to those penalties, was the second choice. There was not much that separated the two, although the Phillies harbored some concerns about Correa’s history of lower-back injuries.

The Phillies had Xander Bogaerts as their third choice and Dansby Swanson fourth. But there was a large gap, in the Phillies’ evaluation, between the first two shortstops and the latter two. The team met with all four — Turner first, Swanson last week in Georgia, and Correa and Bogaerts this past weekend in California. The Phillies decided their original rankings were accurate after the in-person interviews.
 

radsoxfan

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Agreed, its just a shorter deferral/financing device rather than have typical deferred money while the player isnt on the roster anymore. I figured that Turner was going to be in the 8/240 to 9/275 range so I was surprised at the $300M, but I think you're right this is just a current value/salary deferral play for them and those last few back years are meaningless/adding very little to total contract value and are there to spread the total number out.

All of these deals really have their value in the first 5-6 years depending on exact age (perhaps 7 for a really young 25/26 year old FA) in any event.
Present value of 300M divided up over 11 yearly payments with 6% interest rate... 158M

Present value of 250M divided up over 8 yearly payments with 6% interest rate... 157M
 

mikcou

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Present value of 300M divided up over 11 yearly payments with 6% interest rate... 158M

Present value of 250M divided up over 8 yearly payments with 6% interest rate... 157M
Yeah I was playing with this in the other thread about impacts on Xander pricing last night - completely agree (although I was coming up with something like an 8% break even point for a 8/268 so I'm having a tough time seeing how a 6% discount rate gets a 8/250 to break even - seems like more like a 8.75% discount rate). For example what I came up with there:
  1. PV with 8% discount rate, 11 periods, 27.3M per period is a present value of 188.2M
  2. PV with 8% discount rate, 8 periods, 33.5M per period is a present value of $187.5M

Pretty irrelevant difference because I suspect most teams are using something like 10% or at least the 8% that would put the deals pretty even. Even large public co's with pretty low cost of capital trend towards 7-8%; sports teams should be above that.

The player might not be looking at it that way, but the team sure is.
 

Apisith

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Contracts are discounted at the Imputed Loan Interest Rate (defined in the CBA as “the annual ‘Federal mid-term rate’ as defined in Section 1274(d) of the Internal Revenue Code for the October preceding that Contract year”), which is currently around 4%.

This is for calculating AAV and thus CBT tax purposes.
 

trekfan55

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Until the players and owners figure out a way for players to get paid when they actually produce, we will see contracts like this.

BTW what I mean is, many players are under the 6 year team control window when they have their highest production and not too many are eligible for FA with 7-9 years of prime production left. Like someone said above, the issue is contracts that are bad from the start (yeah Chris Sale's extension falls into that). In many cases it's extensions like Cabrera, or getting the FA way too late like Pujols. In others it's simply about the player falling off a cliff too quickly. But regardless, any FA signing will include 2 and maybe 3 years when he is not worth anything and is still being paid.

So yes, the fact that Trea Turner may be getting paid at 40 is worth it if he produces. And that is something that any team that wants to sign free agents must take into account.
 

GreenMonster49

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Contracts are discounted at the Imputed Loan Interest Rate (defined in the CBA as “the annual ‘Federal mid-term rate’ as defined in Section 1274(d) of the Internal Revenue Code for the October preceding that Contract year”), which is currently around 4%.

This is for calculating AAV and thus CBT tax purposes.
The October 2022 annual Mid-Term AFR (which I believe would apply for contracts starting in the 2023 season) was 3.28%.
 

mikcou

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Contracts are discounted at the Imputed Loan Interest Rate (defined in the CBA as “the annual ‘Federal mid-term rate’ as defined in Section 1274(d) of the Internal Revenue Code for the October preceding that Contract year”), which is currently around 4%.

This is for calculating AAV and thus CBT tax purposes.
To be clear, the discussion was not about any deferred salary. It was merely about what the present value difference is of a no-salary deferral 11/300 where equal payments of $27.3M were made each year v. a 8/250 or 8/268 where equal payments were made. There wouldnt be any CBT deferral under either of those.

AFRs arent really discount rates in any sort of non-tax world. Discount rates/cost of capital are considerably higher for pretty much everyone. Even massive public listed companies have cost of capital thats going to be significantly higher than 4%.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Until the players and owners figure out a way for players to get paid when they actually produce, we will see contracts like this.

BTW what I mean is, many players are under the 6 year team control window when they have their highest production and not too many are eligible for FA with 7-9 years of prime production left. Like someone said above, the issue is contracts that are bad from the start (yeah Chris Sale's extension falls into that). In many cases it's extensions like Cabrera, or getting the FA way too late like Pujols. In others it's simply about the player falling off a cliff too quickly. But regardless, any FA signing will include 2 and maybe 3 years when he is not worth anything and is still being paid.

So yes, the fact that Trea Turner may be getting paid at 40 is worth it if he produces. And that is something that any team that wants to sign free agents must take into account.
It's worth it, I think, depending on the player. From an on-the-field perspective no sane person will say the back end of a contract is worth as much as the front. But if you've got a franchise player who is humble, fans love him, and he's a true leader in the clubhouse...to me there's less risk. In other words, when Arod stops producing, you want him gone as soon as possible. When Judge stops producing, he's still gonna be a humble guy who transitions to DH and then transitions to backup with grace.

On the big picture contract stuff, yea, but why relitigate that now. If they didn't solve that this CBA w/ a strike, no hope IMO of solving it on the next one.
 

jon abbey

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Reports that he turned down a deal from SD that would have been more than Lindor’s $341M.
 

ehaz

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Reports that he turned down a deal from SD that would have been more than Lindor’s $341M.
Wow. They just have unlimited money to spend I guess. Thankfully, the Padres are reportedly out on the other shortstops, including Xander. If they were presumably offering ~$350M to Turner, you'd think they'd be entering into the Judge sweepstakes. That's a much easier fit on paper than Turner. You'd just straight-up replace Jurickson Profar in LF by moving Soto there and putting Judge in RF.

1. Tatis Jr. SS
2. Soto LF
3. Judge RF
4. Machado 3B
5. Cronenworth 1B
6. Drury DH (if they bring him or Bell back)
7. Kim 2B
8. Grisham CF
9. Nola C
 

moondog80

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Reports that he turned down a deal from SD that would have been more than Lindor’s $341M.

I'm skeptical of this, especially since the full terms have not been released, just the total dollar amount. Like it was $225 mil deal with incentives/team options that will never be exercised that could have taken it to $350 mil.
 

ehaz

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I'm skeptical of this, especially since the full terms have not been released, just the total dollar amount. Like it was $225 mil deal with incentives/team options that will never be exercised that could have taken it to $350 mil.
True. Could also be $350M guaranteed but with tons of deferred payments that drives the actual value well below that.
 

Adirondack jack

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Wow. They just have unlimited money to spend I guess. Thankfully, the Padres are reportedly out on the other shortstops, including Xander. If they were presumably offering ~$350M to Turner, you'd think they'd be entering into the Judge sweepstakes. That's a much easier fit on paper than Turner. You'd just straight-up replace Jurickson Profar in LF by moving Soto there and putting Judge in RF.

1. Tatis Jr. SS
2. Soto LF
3. Judge RF
4. Machado 3B
5. Cronenworth 1B
6. Drury DH (if they bring him or Bell back)
7. Kim 2B
8. Grisham CF
9. Nola C
Using the Pads as an example of a team on the cusp..

So you have a team that is good and just about there. It would seem that the opportunity cost of fielding this team, right there and on the cusp, but not quite there (for examples sake, not saying the friars are or are not..)is too great to not pick up an Aaron Judge, or whomever at full retail through his 42nd birthday.

I think Dombrowski understands opportunity cost better then many current GM's who are afraid to make the "Larry Andersen" trade (perhaps not the best example), but you get the point.

For all the flak Dombrowski gets around here you would think Theo left our farm in a far different state.

Im just saying Pearl Jam is a bit overrated is all
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Using the Pads as an example of a team on the cusp..

So you have a team that is good and just about there. It would seem that the opportunity cost of fielding this team, right there and on the cusp, but not quite there (for examples sake, not saying the friars are or are not..)is too great to not pick up an Aaron Judge, or whomever at full retail through his 42nd birthday.

I think Dombrowski understands opportunity cost better then many current GM's who are afraid to make the "Larry Andersen" trade (perhaps not the best example), but you get the point.

For all the flak Dombrowski gets around here you would think Theo left our farm in a far different state.

Im just saying Pearl Jam is a bit overrated is all
I think that people feel that a minor league system should be a consistent and constant flow of talent at all times. And throughout baseball history, it doesn't work like that. If you're good, you trade minor leaguers off to get better. Sometimes your scouts stink. Sometimes you miss on guys who are considered "can't miss". Sometimes weird things happen and your prospect gets into a fight outside a bar and busts up his shoulder or another one smashes a glass in his hand severing tendons while visiting his friend's grave.

I'm not sure you can name more than one GM who has had a steady stream of prospects over a long time.

The best thing that can happen to your minor league system is graduating young players to the majors so that they can contribute to the big club's success. It's usually at that point where a team's minor league system atrophies and that's exactly what happened to the Sox in 2019 and 2012. It's designed to be a boom/bust sort of system.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Friedman since he joined the Dodgers and Schueholtz from the late '80s through the '90s in Atlanta, although they're easy to name because it's a rarity.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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John Schuerholz didn't get to Atlanta until 1990, after the Braves gravy train started. Gant, Glavine, Pete Smith all debuted in 1987, Lemke the next year, Smoltz, Justice, Blauser, Merker and Wohelers the year after. Bobby Cox was the Atlanta GM starting in 1985 and I'm pretty sure he didn't draft most of those guys.
 

8slim

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I think that people feel that a minor league system should be a consistent and constant flow of talent at all times. And throughout baseball history, it doesn't work like that. If you're good, you trade minor leaguers off to get better. Sometimes your scouts stink. Sometimes you miss on guys who are considered "can't miss". Sometimes weird things happen and your prospect gets into a fight outside a bar and busts up his shoulder or another one smashes a glass in his hand severing tendons while visiting his friend's grave.

I'm not sure you can name more than one GM who has had a steady stream of prospects over a long time.

The best thing that can happen to your minor league system is graduating young players to the majors so that they can contribute to the big club's success. It's usually at that point where a team's minor league system atrophies and that's exactly what happened to the Sox in 2019 and 2012. It's designed to be a boom/bust sort of system.
Great post. People are gushing about the Yankees farm today, but it wasn't that long ago when a lot of folks here were mocking their system.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Great post. People are gushing about the Yankees farm today, but it wasn't that long ago when a lot of folks here were mocking their system.
Great point about the Yanks.

It's an ebb and a flow, and Dombrowski got caught in an ebb. Does that shield him from blame? No. He still didn't draft awesome, but I think he drafted okay enough that the Sox should be fine with Bello, Casas, etc. As GM, Team President, Grand Poobah of Cool Baseball Shit; you can't just focus on one part of the organization. I think that's something that Bloom struggles with, but when he insinuates to fans that the farm system is where you need to focus, what he's really doing is buying time because he's selling hope. And who doesn't want to buy hope during a last place season?

Maybe he's starting to get the idea that he needs more than hope for the future. Today (especially if Bogaerts gets signed) is a nice step in that direction.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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John Schuerholz didn't get to Atlanta until 1990, after the Braves gravy train started. Gant, Glavine, Pete Smith all debuted in 1987, Lemke the next year, Smoltz, Justice, Blauser, Merker and Wohelers the year after. Bobby Cox was the Atlanta GM starting in 1985 and I'm pretty sure he didn't draft most of those guys.
Meh… Front office personnel changed over time, but the point remains the Braves were cranking out good homegrown players for at least a decade while going to the playoffs every year. They were the most impressive at doing that since the advent of free agency even if it did only result in one World Series championship.