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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The thread to track Red Sox trends (or otherwise named: cherry-picking the latest numbers). To start, here's a few...

- Since London, the Red Sox are 15-7 (.681), outscoring their opponents 157-121 (+36 run differential). The offense over that stretch is averaging 7.1 runs per game (!), but the pitching...5.5 runs per game.

- Over their last 6 games vs. NYY, the Sox have scored 8, 13, 8, 19, 10, and 9 runs. That's 67 runs, or 11.2 per game.

- The Sox are just 8-13 in games started by today's pitcher Chris Sale, but they've won his last two, and Sale has gone 12.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 5 bb, 22 k, 1.50 era, 0.92 whip, 16.5 k/9 over those two games.

- Sale in his career has fared very well vs. NYY: 19 g, 111.2 ip, 2.10 era, 0.95 whip, 11.8 k/9. But in 2019, not so much: 2 g, 11.0 ip, 14 h, 8 r, 8 er, 2 bb, 16 k, 6.55 era, 1.46 whip, 13.1 k/9.

- After a very rough stretch, Barnes has pitched well this month: 9 g, 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 14 k, 0.00 era, 0.71 whip, 18.0 k/9.

- Walden, who was warming up at the end of last night's game, has also found a mini-groove. Last 5 games: 4.2 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 3 k.

- Workman has been solid all season. He was dominant for much of the year, and his era stood at 1.50 on May 11. Since then, it's "ballooned" (haha) up to 2.08, and over his last 29 games has put up this line: 29.2 ip, 15 h, 9 r, 8 er, 18 bb, 41 k, 2.43 era, 1.11 whip, 12.4 k/9.

- On the negative side, Vazquez' bat has cooled considerably. After reaching a batting average of .302 on July 12, he's put up this line in his last 14 games: 57 pa, 1 hr, .176/.263/.255/.518. Coming back to earth like a burned out satellite.

- Nice little 12-game stretch for Benintendi: 54 pa, 2 hr, .340/.426/.617/1.043. Raising his average from .266 to .275, and his ops from .762 to .798.

Feel free to add your own.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Since this ownership group has taken over, the Red Sox have won four championships, and the Yankees have won one.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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- On the negative side, Vazquez' bat has cooled considerably. After reaching a batting average of .302 on July 12, he's put up this line in his last 14 games: 57 pa, 1 hr, .176/.263/.255/.518. Coming back to earth like a burned out satellite.
I’ve been thinking that all the DHing and 1Bing etc for Vazquez was too much, overexposing him. He’s been having a good season. Enjoy that, but don’t count on it and don’t be greedy about it. He is what he is until he proves otherwise for more than half a season.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Sale's last three games vs NYY:

Apr 16, 2019: 5.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 6 k
May 31, 2019: 6.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 10 k
July 28, 2019: 5.1 ip, 5 h, 6 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 7 k
TOTALS: 16.1 ip, 19 h, 14 r, 14 er, 5 bb, 23 k, 7.71 era, 1.47 whip, 12.7 k/9

Contrast that with his 2018 effort vs NYY:

April 10, 2018: 6.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 8 k
June 30, 2018: 7.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 11 k
Oct 5, 2018: 5.1 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k (postseason)
Oct 9, 2018: 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k (postseason)
TOTALS: 19.1 ip, 14 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 28 k, 1.40 era, 0.88 whip, 13.0 k/9
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Josh Taylor's last 19 games: 19.2 ip, 1.83 era, 1.12 whip, 11.4 k/9

In those 19 games, he's allowed:
- 0 runs 15 times (78.9%)
- 1 run 3 times (15.8%)
- 2 runs 1 time (5.3%)

- 0 baserunners 7 times (36.8%)
- 1 baserunner 6 times (31.6%)
- 2 baserunners 2 times (10.5%)
- 3 baserunners 4 times (21.0%)

In 24 total appearances he's allowed runs in just 7 games (29.2%). He has had one blowup game (1.0 ip, 4 er).
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Sale's last three games vs NYY:

Apr 16, 2019: 5.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 6 k
May 31, 2019: 6.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 10 k
July 28, 2019: 5.1 ip, 5 h, 6 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 7 k
TOTALS: 16.1 ip, 19 h, 14 r, 14 er, 5 bb, 23 k, 7.71 era, 1.47 whip, 12.7 k/9

Contrast that with his 2018 effort vs NYY:

April 10, 2018: 6.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 8 k
June 30, 2018: 7.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 11 k
Oct 5, 2018: 5.1 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k (postseason)
Oct 9, 2018: 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k (postseason)
TOTALS: 19.1 ip, 14 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 28 k, 1.40 era, 0.88 whip, 13.0 k/9
Ugh. I can't wait for the Who's Your Daddy chants to start...
 

nvalvo

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I saw an interesting one on twitter from Sox Scout (@redsoxstats):

Price had 14 BB and 41 K in 30.1 July innings while allowing 4 barrels all month. Batters hit 26 flares and got hits on 20 of them. Two homers hit off him were laughable - Pham and Pollock. Ended up with 5.04 ERA.

Expected wOBA by month: .295, .280, .291, .305 rock steady.
So while Price's results have been decidedly mediocre in his last few starts, he hasn't really been hit harder than in his strong first half. It may be just be the good lord BABIP hiding his face.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I saw an interesting one on twitter from Sox Scout (@redsoxstats):



So while Price's results have been decidedly mediocre in his last few starts, he hasn't really been hit harder than in his strong first half. It may be just be the good lord BABIP hiding his face.
It's arguable that he's not getting hard contact because he's nibbling around, DiceK-style. His walks in July were up a lot...14 in 6 starts compared to just 4 in 5 starts in June, and 3 in 5 starts in May. His WHIP is up as a result. His BABIP in July is actually down from June (.351 vs .380), but still up from May when he was absolutely stellar (.255).

He might not be getting hit hard, and he might be a bit unlucky, but he's putting more guys on base and, unlucky or not, hit hard or not, that means base hits are going to bring in more runs. And with the nibbling, he's throwing more pitches and not getting as deep into games. 6 starts, 30.1 innings is a hair over 5 innings per outing. Not really acceptable from your ace.
 

Harry Hooper

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I saw an interesting one on twitter from Sox Scout (@redsoxstats):



So while Price's results have been decidedly mediocre in his last few starts, he hasn't really been hit harder than in his strong first half. It may be just be the good lord BABIP hiding his face.
He is having a lot of trouble finishing batters off. He's also given up 6 taters in July (vs. 1 HR in June) which are not included in BAbip
 

BaseballJones

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Sale's last 7 starts (you may need a vomit bag):

37.1 ip (5.1 ip per start), 42 h, 31 r, 31 er, 12 bb, 55 k, 10 hr, 7.47 era, 1.45 whip

Four games vs NYY this year:

5.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 6 k, 1 hr
6.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 10 k, 1 hr
5.1 ip, 5 h, 6 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 7 k, 2 hr
3.2 ip, 9 h, 8 r, 8 er, 0 bb, 4 k, 2 hr

TOT: 20.0 ip, 28 h, 22 r, 22 er, 5 bb, 27 k, 6 hr, 9.90 era, 1.65 whip, 12.2 k/9

Holy crap. $30 million doesn't buy what it used to.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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These are not good trends...

Sale last 7 starts: 9.90 era, 1.65 whip
Price last 9 starts: 5.48 era, 1.52 whip
Porcello last 7 starts: 9.35 era, 1.87 whip

I mean, we can blame whatever the hell else we want on this team (and it's been a lot of suck), but when your top three starters are doing THIS....holy frigging god you have no chance.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If I were the Sox' pitching coach, I might be a bit careful with longterm schooling plans for my kids.

Yes, I know, game-thready. But the issues this year are mostly pitching related, and the team can't come back next year and say "it's the same guys who won in 2018" again.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If I were the Sox' pitching coach, I might be a bit careful with longterm schooling plans for my kids.

Yes, I know, game-thready. But the issues this year are mostly pitching related, and the team can't come back next year and say "it's the same guys who won in 2018" again.
Not game thready to me. Between Porcello, Sale and Price that Sox are throwing out almost $70million clams and getting absolutely nothing even close to that value. We're stuck with Price for two more years and Sale for 5 more with no pitching prospects on the horizon, nor any prospects tradeworthy to bring in a low cost starter to bring the quality up and the cost for the rotation in aggregate down. Someone will have to answer for this mess and that likely will be the pitching staff
 

Plympton91

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I used to say that the “blame the pitching coach” stuff was overdone, but holy hell then you look at Houston. Aaron Sanchez has been a hot mess for 2 seasons, he spends 5 days in Houston and throws a combined no hitter last night.

Can we get someone else in here? Like, today?
 

twibnotes

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I used to say that the “blame the pitching coach” stuff was overdone, but holy hell then you look at Houston. Aaron Sanchez has been a hot mess for 2 seasons, he spends 5 days in Houston and throws a combined no hitter last night.

Can we get someone else in here? Like, today?
We’re also not developing any pitchers. At some point it can’t just be the drafting
 

brandonchristensen

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I used to say that the “blame the pitching coach” stuff was overdone, but holy hell then you look at Houston. Aaron Sanchez has been a hot mess for 2 seasons, he spends 5 days in Houston and throws a combined no hitter last night.

Can we get someone else in here? Like, today?
Something’s going on in Houston. It seems like every pitcher elevates their game when they go there.
 

amRadio

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Dana Lavangie played in the Sox minor league system and became a bullpen catcher in 97; he's played a ton of roles for this organization. Bullpen catcher, scout, advanced scout, bullpen coach, and now pitching coach. Broke through as a full time coach when John Farrell was re-hired here in 2013. I couldn't source this, but I believe he was one of the advanced scouts that was raved about after the 2007 sweep of the Rockies - maybe someone remembers. I essentially agree that it's a fair moment to look at who the pitching coach is and evaluate the possibility of making a change. It would just be a bit of a sad moment for a long time Sox guy. He's been here in some capacity through all the great moments of the last 15 years.

E: edited for clarity
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We’re also not developing any pitchers. At some point it can’t just be the drafting
They're not developing starting pitchers very well. There's plenty of home grown pitching in the bullpen, both on the current roster and on other teams. Developing really good starting pitching is hard. For every Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz, there are going to be a dozen Michael Bowdens and Anthony Ranuados.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Homegrown pitchers on the Sox right now (defined as having come up to the Red Sox after serving in Boston's minor league system, even if they didn't draft them):

Rodriguez
Walden (kind of but not really...long time minor leaguer for other teams first)
Workman
Barnes
Velazquez
Johnson
Hernandez
Taylor

So some decent pitchers in that group. But no dominant starters.
 

bosockboy

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They're not developing starting pitchers very well. There's plenty of home grown pitching in the bullpen, both on the current roster and on other teams. Developing really good starting pitching is hard. For every Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz, there are going to be a dozen Michael Bowdens and Anthony Ranuados.
Ranaudo, wow. I had forgotten about him.

Hopefully Groome recovers and is the next successful homegrown arm.
 

Pandarama

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Aug 20, 2018
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I used to say that the “blame the pitching coach” stuff was overdone, but holy hell then you look at Houston. Aaron Sanchez has been a hot mess for 2 seasons, he spends 5 days in Houston and throws a combined no hitter last night.

Can we get someone else in here? Like, today?
Do the lowly Seattle Mariners get any credit for providing the punching bag? I mean, they’ve already been no-hit once this season.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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These are not good trends...

Sale last 7 starts: 9.90 era, 1.65 whip
Price last 9 starts: 5.48 era, 1.52 whip
Porcello last 7 starts: 9.35 era, 1.87 whip

I mean, we can blame whatever the hell else we want on this team (and it's been a lot of suck), but when your top three starters are doing THIS....holy frigging god you have no chance.
Updating this for Price's start tonight:

Sale last 7 starts: 9.90 era, 1.65 whip
Price last 10 starts: 6.55 era, 1.90 whip
Porcello last 7 starts: 9.35 era, 1.87 whip

Holy mother of god.
 

Harry Hooper

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McAdam had this notable tidbit today at BSJ:

The Yankees scored six runs in the third, marking the fifth time this season that they’ve scored six or more runs in an inning against the Sox.
 

Pandarama

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Aug 20, 2018
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No. The Red Sox got no-hit last season in one of their best offensive seasons ever.
Well, Dee Gordon will tell you that the Angels no-hit the M’s with assistance from the Deity. So there’s that to take into consideration. I’m not aware of whether he credited the Astros with supernatural help on this one.

But regardless of that, the M’s have stripped their roster in a “step back,” and the Red Sox didn’t get no-hit twice in one season last year.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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FIP Up, FIP Down

Here are guys whose ERA is better than their FIP (meaning they've gotten lucky and/or needed more help from the D):

Pitcher - ERA, FIP (Difference)
Rodriguez - 4.17, 4.29 (-0.12)
Workman - 1.87, 2.57 (-0.70)
Walden - 3.30, 3.48 (-0.18)
Brewer - 4.31, 4.80 (-0.49)
Hembree - 4.06, 4.91 (-0.85)

Here are guys whose ERA is worse than their FIP (meaning they've gotten unlucky)

Pitcher - ERA, FIP (Difference)
Sale - 4.41, 3.34 (+1.07)
Porcello - 5.67, 4.93 (+0.74)
Price - 4.36, 3.64 (+0.72)
Barnes - 4.70, 3.15 (+1.55)
Velazquez - 5.81, 4.80 (+1.01)
Cashner - 8.01, 6.81 (+1.20)

As a team, the Sox' ERA is 4.81, and their FIP is 4.30 (+0.51). Contrast that with these teams:

Hou - 3.72, 4.10 (-0.38)
NYY - 4.33, 4.56 (-0.23)
Cle - 3.63, 3.99 (-0.36)

So yeah, part of why the Sox' era is so bad is a bit of bad luck, especially compared to these other teams. The Sox' FIP isn't far off Houston's, and it's better than the Yankees', and yet the Sox' team ERA is so much worse than both those other teams.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1164192998143528961


Best bullpen ERA since July 24 and best K/9 rate of any bullpen for the season. I only find it worth pointing out this 3-4 week trend came immediately before and since the trade deadline when, according to some Chicken Littles, Dombrowski failed to shore up the pen and "sent a message" that the team wasn't worth the effort. Also in this same time frame, two starters have hit the IL and one was shipped off to the bullpen, putting far more pressure and far more innings on the bullpen staff. And they've largely borne up to it.
 

Plympton91

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The emergence of Taylor and Hernandez has been a godsend. Adding them to Workman and Barnes creates a much more stable pen going into next year.

Walden has also been great, defying logic. I continue to believe that he is doing it with smoke and mirrors and shouldn’t be counted on to continue to succeed tonight much less next year. Keep him and Brasier on the 12th man shuttle between Boston and Pawtucket as long as you can.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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The Sox have a chance to have...

- 3 players with .300, 30 hr, 100 rbi (JD, X, Devers)
- 7 players with 20+ hr (JD, X, Devers, Mookie, Vazquez, JBJ, and Chavis, if Chavis returns to the majors)
- 4 players with 100 runs (X, Mookie, Devers, JD)
- 5 players with 30 doubles (X, Devers, Mookie, JD, Benny)
- 4 players with 125 obp+ (X, Devers, Mookie, JD)
- 7 players with 200 total bases (Vaz, X, Devers, Benny, JBJ, Betts, JD)
- 3 players with .960 ops (X, Devers, JD)

I mean, that's a lot of offense.
 

Plympton91

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That’s nice and all, but part of the reason those numbers aren’t translating into quite enough wins is because every good team is breaking records for home runs and doubles, because they juiced the ball to try and redo the Bonds, Sosa, McGwire age without the steroids.

I think you have to put an asterisk on any stat that isn’t expressed relative to the rest of the league this year.
 

redsox11507

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I think you have to put an asterisk on any stat that isn’t expressed relative to the rest of the league this year.
Sox have the fourth best offense by wRC+ wOBA and WAR and the second most runs scored in the league. So it's less that everyone has a great offense and more that pitching has taken a mighty drop off compared to last year.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Homers are so far up it's crazy, even compared to the "steroid era" of Sosa, McGwire, and Bonds.

25994

This graph is homers per at-bat.

2000: 0.034 hr/ab (HR leader: Sosa with 50; 47 with 30+ homers)
2011: 0.027 hr/ab (HR leader: Bautista with 43; 24 with 30+ homers)
2014: 0.025 hr/ab (HR leader: Cruz with 40; 11 with 30+ homers)
2019: 0.041 hr/ab (HR leader: Alonso/Suarez with 47 so far; 48 with 30+ homers, with another 16 with 26-29)
 

Cesar Crespo

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before demotion: 40.1 ip, 4.46 era, 36k/12bb, 1.215, 21.1% K rate, 7.1% BB%
in AAA: 9.1 ip, 0.96 era, 13k/1bb, .750 WHIP, 36.1% K Rate, 2.8% BB%
Since Call up: 13.1 ip, 6.75 era, 22k/7bb, 1.50 WHIP, 35.6% K rate, 11.3% BB%

Combined AAA/Callup: 22.2 ip, 8bb/35k. 35.7% K%, 8.2% BB, 13.9k/9. The results aren't there but for the long term, this has to be encouraging.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not seeing this as a positive trend. Where is the Big League success?
A 21.1% K rate to a 35.7% k rate is a very positive trend. If that's maintainable due to something he's doing, that's huge. Generally speaking, the pitcher with the 35.7% K rate is going to be much better. The results aren't there yet but he's had a .369 BAbip since returning. It's possible something he did to get an increase in Ks is causing a higher than average BAbip too, or that he just reverts back closer to the league average rate of 21.2%.

Since coming back, he has a 15% Strike looking, 18% Strike swinging. Prior he was at 13% and 14%. There's a lot of good things under the bad results.
 

santadevil

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K rate is there, but the walk rate is brutal. Cut down on the walks, the rest of the numbers may end up looking a lot better
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Walk rate is up, but looking at his game log, it isn't the walks that have hurt him. It's three bad outings, back to back to back, where he gave up 9 of his 10 ER (and 10 of his 11 runs total) since his recall. Since those ugly outings, he's made six appearances, allowing no runs, 2 hits, and a 8/1 K/BB ratio.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Walk rate is up, but looking at his game log, it isn't the walks that have hurt him. It's three bad outings, back to back to back, where he gave up 9 of his 10 ER (and 10 of his 11 runs total) since his recall. Since those ugly outings, he's made six appearances, allowing no runs, 2 hits, and a 8/1 K/BB ratio.
So he's the Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Bullpen?