Tyler O’Neill acquired by Red Sox

[ElcaballitoMVP]

TON strikes out a lot period. In the game yesterday, he had two homers, but K'd with runners on 2nd and 3rd with two-out. That says something. He has like 21 dingers, but only 38 rbi's this year. He is serviceable, but we really need one more RH bat, especially like today (Wed) when they held him out.

Striking out with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out means next to nothing when you compare it to the 2 home runs he already hit. He was directly responsible for 3 of their 6 runs yesterday, so I don't know why you'd want to dismiss what he'd already done and focus on a strike out in a game they're up 6-0.

Look, power hitters tend to strike out a lot. Brent Rooker, a guy people want as another RHH K's at a similar rate. No one is mistaking O'Neill for Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez when it comes to striking out. Those guys are pretty rare. But what they've gotten from O'Neill has been beyond just about everyone's expectations and provided much needed RH power to the lineup. He's 15th in the majors in HR while missing almost 30 games. He's been more than serviceable. He's been a key piece to their lineup.

And yes, they still need at least one more RH bat.

 

[jbupstate]

Wondering if you watched the game. The strikeout was due in part to two strike calls above the zone.

 

[bernie carb 33]

Wondering if you watched the game. The strikeout was due in part to two strike calls above the zone.

Yes I watched the game. But I did not see much after they pulled Criswell. But my point stands on TON, maybe trying to do too much with RISP and the Ks. Reference only 38 RBIs. He strikes out a lot, yes. In fact the team has a bad avg K rate, they have a 24.6% K rate w/ RISP and less than two outs. Added to that, they have a 25.1% K rate in all situations.

The RISP deal has exacerbated in the last six games. I think they will use NYY to jell into some real baseball again. Hopefully there are just some mild slumps going on, 3 of the losses winnable.

In LA
0-11 risp 6 lob Loss
2-14 risp 9 lob Loss
3-14 risp 10 lob Loss

Col games

4-14 risp 7 lob Loss
2-10 risp 11 lob Win
1-10 risp 4 lob Loss

 

[chrisfont9]

O'Neill's numbers are tracking pretty closely with Teoscar Hernandez, minus 120 PAs. Obviously durability is in favor of Hernandez, and that's always the rub with O'Neill. But it's arguably not worth the cost, 3x what O'Neill makes, for similar production and forgettable defense. O'Neill signing was a win.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t think it was ever Teoscar instead of O’Neill, it was in addition to. Of course, that assumed a signing would free up Duran or Abreu to be traded for a SP. Bullet likely dodged!

 

[chrisfont9]

I don’t think it was ever Teoscar instead of O’Neill, it was in addition to. Of course, that assumed a signing would free up Duran or Abreu to be traded for a SP. Bullet likely dodged!

Hm, I am maybe not remembering. It doesn't seem like both would be an option unless Yoshida were traded, but that may be hindsight on my part.

 

[BaseballJones]

O'Neill's numbers are tracking pretty closely with Teoscar Hernandez, minus 120 PAs. Obviously durability is in favor of Hernandez, and that's always the rub with O'Neill. But it's arguably not worth the cost, 3x what O'Neill makes, for similar production and forgettable defense. O'Neill signing was a win.

O'Neill: 273 ab, 20 hr, .267/.356/.535/.891, 2.3 bWAR, $5.8m
Hernandez: 386 ab, 21 hr, .267/.333/.487/.820, 2.6 bWAR, $15.0m

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

O'Neill: 273 ab, 20 hr, .267/.356/.535/.891, 2.3 bWAR, $5.8m
Hernandez: 386 ab, 21 hr, .267/.333/.487/.820, 2.6 bWAR, $15.0m

The thing that makes me the happiest about this is that Henry will be able to buy his 4th yacht!

But seriously.... the $10M "savings" on that I hope are used in some way to improve the club both this season and into the future. Speaking of which, I wonder how O'Neill and Hernandez line up in your Total Bases stats....

 

[BaseballJones]

The thing that makes me the happiest about this is that Henry will be able to buy his 4th yacht!

But seriously.... the $10M "savings" on that I hope are used in some way to improve the club both this season and into the future. Speaking of which, I wonder how O'Neill and Hernandez line up in your Total Bases stats....

I'll PM you about those numbers. Meanwhile, I'm genuinely curious to see what the Sox do with O'Neill. Try to extend him? Just let him play out his contract and then let him go after this year? Trade him this week while he still has rental value to someone?

 

[Niastri]

Can we change the title of the thread, please? Every time this gets topped, I see "O'Neil traded..." And my heart skips a beat.

 

[nvalvo]

I'll PM you about those numbers. Meanwhile, I'm genuinely curious to see what the Sox do with O'Neill. Try to extend him? Just let him play out his contract and then let him go after this year? Trade him this week while he still has rental value to someone?

If he finishes the season healthy, I would QO him, and let him walk if he so chooses. It's probably a bit steep — 1/$20 for a player I'd want at 1/$15 or so — but a chance at a comp pick is worth more than the risk of a mildly overvalued one-year deal.

If he's hitting ~identically to Teo Hernandez who just turned down multiyear offers for a high-AAV one-year deal and is two years older than he is, I would anticipate O'Neill signs in the range of 2-4 years and $40-70m or so.

You might say that he certainly takes 1/$20m, but I don't know. He won't finish the season having exceeded his career high of 138 games unless we go deep in the playoffs, but if he gets to 120 or so that's probably his moment to hit the market aiming for multiyear security. He's played in 73 games so far, which makes it his third-best season by games played (138, 96, 73, 72, 61, 60, 50).

 

[chrisfont9]

If he finishes the season healthy, I would QO him, and let him walk if he so chooses. It's probably a bit steep — 1/$20 for a player I'd want at 1/$15 or so — but a chance at a comp pick is worth more than the risk of a mildly overvalued one-year deal.

If he's hitting ~identically to Teo Hernandez who just turned down multiyear offers for a high-AAV one-year deal and is two years older than he is, I would anticipate O'Neill signs in the range of 2-4 years and $40-70m or so.

You might say that he certainly takes 1/$20m, but I don't know. He won't finish the season having exceeded his career high of 138 games unless we go deep in the playoffs, but if he gets to 120 or so that's probably his moment to hit the market aiming for multiyear security. He's played in 73 games so far, which makes it his third-best season by games played (138, 96, 73, 72, 61, 60, 50).

I doubt he will be able to hide from the previous two years, but he might take three years/30 with an opt out. If he has a second straight solid year, then maybe that's who he is and he can get paid accordingly.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I doubt he will be able to hide from the previous two years, but he might take three years/30 with an opt out. If he has a second straight solid year, then maybe that's who he is and he can get paid accordingly.

I’d like to QO him and then offer something like 2/$30. I suspect one of Abreu Bleis or Anthony won’t be around next Spring so he’d provide insurance for that time in case the other mL guys need more time/injuries.
Just enough to keep a team away but not bad if he takes it

 

[grimshaw]

If he finishes the season healthy, I would QO him, and let him walk if he so chooses. It's probably a bit steep — 1/$20 for a player I'd want at 1/$15 or so — but a chance at a comp pick is worth more than the risk of a mildly overvalued one-year deal.

If he's hitting ~identically to Teo Hernandez who just turned down multiyear offers for a high-AAV one-year deal and is two years older than he is, I would anticipate O'Neill signs in the range of 2-4 years and $40-70m or so.

You might say that he certainly takes 1/$20m, but I don't know. He won't finish the season having exceeded his career high of 138 games unless we go deep in the playoffs, but if he gets to 120 or so that's probably his moment to hit the market aiming for multiyear security. He's played in 73 games so far, which makes it his third-best season by games played (138, 96, 73, 72, 61, 60, 50).

I would do this too, due to the dirge of right handed bats available. I am 95% a numbers guy and he's probably a 2 to 3 win guy for a few season. but I just don't enjoy watching players with huge whiff rates even when they are well rounded elsewhere. It's not an enjoyable brand of baseball for me.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’d like to QO him and then offer something like 2/$30. I suspect one of Abreu Bleis or Anthony won’t be around next Spring so he’d provide insurance for that time in case the other mL guys need more time/injuries.
Just enough to keep a team away but not bad if he takes it

A QO will give him $20M+, there’s no way he accepts 2/30 if he has been offered the QO.

 

[nvalvo]

A QO will give him $20M+, there’s no way he accepts 2/30 if he has been offered the QO.

This is basically correct, although there are a few edge cases where players reject the QO only to find that they've overestimated their market and end up signing contracts worse than what they turned down. But that would be the sort of deal that would get signed five months later if it shook out that way, so it doesn't really bear on the offseason planning.

Here's an edge case for the CBA understanders out there:

Does a QO need to be a one-year offer at those dollars? Or does it just need to clear a minimum AAV? Could you offer a longer deal during that period for the purposes of securing draft compensation? I get that it wouldn't make sense for the CBA to allow a $22m deal stretched out over 10 years to count, but what if a team were in a situation where they didn't value a single season from a player very highly, but were potentially interested in a multiyear deal at the same AAV? Maybe they have a prospect that they'd trade if a given player committed to stay. Or maybe they know that they'll be bad next year because the top half of their rotation just had TJS, but expect to be good in year two of the deal. But if the player won't commit to stick around, they'd rather have the comp pick than the player on a one-year deal. Could that happen?

 

[chrisfont9]

I’d like to QO him and then offer something like 2/$30. I suspect one of Abreu Bleis or Anthony won’t be around next Spring so he’d provide insurance for that time in case the other mL guys need more time/injuries.
Just enough to keep a team away but not bad if he takes it

Yeah, OK, that would be low risk and max flexibility (I know you were joking before about Henry's money but with OF slots the years is the only issue).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

This is basically correct, although there are a few edge cases where players reject the QO only to find that they've overestimated their market and end up signing contracts worse than what they turned down. But that would be the sort of deal that would get signed five months later if it shook out that way, so it doesn't really bear on the offseason planning.

Here's an edge case for the CBA understanders out there:

Does a QO need to be a one-year offer at those dollars? Or does it just need to clear a minimum AAV? Could you offer a longer deal during that period for the purposes of securing draft compensation? I get that it wouldn't make sense for the CBA to allow a $22m deal stretched out over 10 years to count, but what if a team were in a situation where they didn't value a single season from a player very highly, but were potentially interested in a multiyear deal at the same AAV? Maybe they have a prospect that they'd trade if a given player committed to stay. Or maybe they know that they'll be bad next year because the top half of their rotation just had TJS, but expect to be good in year two of the deal. But if the player won't commit to stick around, they'd rather have the comp pick than the player on a one-year deal. Could that happen?

No, a QO offer is a one year at a fixed amount.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If he rejects a QO though, I can totally see other teams staying away for the draft penalty and not wanting to offer him more than a 3/40 though, so I don't think it'd be that crazy for him to think, "I'll take the 2/30 and then can probably get another 2 or 3 year deal after since the QO wont' be attached". A 3 year might be just slightly too long for him to gamble on coming right out of this season that could take him past that sweet spot.

 

[simplicio]

I think he dives headfirst into a QO. He doesn't have the health track record to offer one.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If he rejects a QO though, I can totally see other teams staying away for the draft penalty and not wanting to offer him more than a 3/40 though, so I don't think it'd be that crazy for him to think, "I'll take the 2/30 and then can probably get another 2 or 3 year deal after since the QO wont' be attached". A 3 year might be just slightly too long for him to gamble on coming right out of this season that could take him past that sweet spot.

Why wouldn’t he just take the QO? I don’t see what benefit he gets from the second year at a much lower amount.

 

[LogansDad]

I think he dives headfirst into a QO. He doesn't have the health track record to offer one.

I agree, but I also think it is worth the Sox giving it to him. 1 year at $20M for a pretty good players is a solid transition to the Anthony/Campbell/Bleis OF window.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why wouldn’t he just take the QO? I don’t see what benefit he gets from the second year at a much lower amount.

Sort of guessing it’s the middle ground of playing it safe and also taking a chance…‍

 

[nvalvo]

No, a QO offer is a one year at a fixed amount.

thanks.