Vegas, Baby: Always Bet on... Red.

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
959
Connecticut
With the disclaimer that citing future odds also includes the probablility that future moves are expected.
The RS opened at 22-1 to win the WS. They are now the favorites at 8-1 as listed on Thespread.com and updated through today.
So Someone thinks the FO is doing a good job.
 
 
 WORLD SERIES ODDS OPEN LISTED FIRST THEN CURRENT ODDS
 
BOSTON RED SOX             22/1    8/1
 
LOS ANGELES DODGERS 15/2    17/2
 
WASHINGTON NATIONALS 8/1     10/1
 
LOS ANGELES ANGELS    12/1    12/1
 
DETROIT TIGERS             10/1     12/1
 
ST LOUIS CARDINALS      12/1     14/1
 
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 12/1    14/1
 
SEATTLE MARINERS        18/1    14/1
 
BALTIMORE ORIOLES      20/1    16/1
 
CHICAGO CUBS                18/1     16/1
 
TORONTO BLUE JAYS     33/1     20/1
 
NEW YORK METS            40/1     20/1
 
KANSAS CITY ROYALS   18/1     20/1
 
NEW YORK YANKEES     22/1     22/1
 
ATLANTA BRAVES         22/1      25/1
 
OAKLAND ATHLETICS   20/1     25/1
 
TEXAS RANGERS          33/1     28/1
 
CLEVELAND INDIANS     25/1    33/1
 
PITTSBURGH PIRATES  20/1    33/1
 
CINCINNATI REDS          33/1    40/1
 
TAMPA BAY RAYS         33/1    50/1
 
MILWAUKEE BREWERS 40/1    50/1
 
MIAMI MARLINS              50/1    50/1
 
CHICAGO WHITE SOX   40/1    50/1
 
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 100/1   66/1
 
SAN DIEGO PADRES    75/1    75/1
 
COLORADO ROCKIES  100/1   100/1
 
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 75/1   100/1
 
MINNESOTA TWINS       100/1   100/1
 
HOUSTON ASTROS      100/1    150/1
 

manny

New Member
Jul 24, 2005
266
InsideTheParker said:
I guess I don't know how to read, but does that say that the odds for the White Sox are worse than before? I don't get that.
 
Only thing i can think is that since the Central got stronger, their odds went down.  Every team in the AL Central saw their odds go down.
 

Manramsclan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
3,371
In my lifetime said:
With the disclaimer that citing future odds also includes the probablility that future moves are expected.
The RS opened at 22-1 to win the WS. They are now the favorites at 8-1 as listed on Thespread.com and updated through today.
So Someone thinks the FO is doing a good job.
 
 
 WORLD SERIES ODDS OPEN LISTED FIRST THEN CURRENT ODDS
 
BOSTON RED SOX             22/1    8/1
 
LOS ANGELES DODGERS 15/2    17/2
 
WASHINGTON NATIONALS 8/1     10/1
 
LOS ANGELES ANGELS    12/1    12/1
 
DETROIT TIGERS             10/1     12/1
 
 
The Vegas odds have no value in evaluating the improvement that teams have made to their rosters. They have much more to do with covering the Casino's butt and enticing more people to bet for certain teams than they have anything to do with the quality of the team's moves.
 
Can we please refrain from using this as a referendum on the plan of the  Boston Red Sox?
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
Manramsclan said:
 
The Vegas odds have no value in evaluating the improvement that teams have made to their rosters.
No Value?  they have some value.
 
The only thing Vegas wants is a matched book, so they can collect their vig.
 
Obviously a lot of professionals have placed money that the Sox improved themselves, by quite a bit, to move the spread that much.
 
If you don't agree, you are free to wager in Vegas on that.  
 
Just tell them they got it wrong, and you'd like those 22-1 odds they had at the end of the season.   See how they react.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
In my lifetime said:
With the disclaimer that citing future odds also includes the probablility that future moves are expected.
The RS opened at 22-1 to win the WS. They are now the favorites at 8-1 as listed on Thespread.com and updated through today.
So Someone thinks the FO is doing a good job.
 
A bunch of drunk ass Boston fans who hit Vegas after the pats game?
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,208
Bangkok
benhogan said:
No Value?  they have some value.
 
The only thing Vegas wants is a matched book, so they can collect their vig.
 
Obviously a lot of professionals have placed money that the Sox improved themselves, by quite a bit, to move the spread that much.
 
If you don't agree, you are free to wager in Vegas on that.  
 
Just tell them they got it wrong, and you'd like those 22-1 odds they had at the end of the season.   See how they react.
Vegas does not want a matched book. That's not how bookies work. They make their vig, yes, but they also edge the odds in a certain direction to make more than the vig.

The odds provide some information but unless you know the distribution of their bettors and their biases or assumed biases, the odds don't say much more than who people who bet with Vegas books think are the favourites.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
Apisith said:
Vegas does not want a matched book. That's not how bookies work. They make their vig, yes, but they also edge the odds in a certain direction to make more than the vig.

The odds provide some information but unless you know the distribution of their bettors and their biases or assumed biases, the odds don't say much more than who people who bet with Vegas books think are the favourites.
Off topic...Go read the quarterly's and annual's for a publicly listed casino.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,208
Bangkok
benhogan said:
Off topic...Go read the quarterly's and annual's for a publicly listed casino.
This is off topic but a casino, where many games are offered in which the probabilities for winning are clear to the bettor, is different from a bookies that seemingly collects only a vig. Anyway, maybe a thread on this somewhere else would be useful.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
go look up "mathematics of bookmaking" on wikipedia.  Casinos wherever possible want a balanced book so they can collect the vig without taking any risk.  This is why Floyd has to spread his bets around at multiple casinos & why big bets move lines around.
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
Apisith said:
Vegas does not want a matched book. That's not how bookies work. They make their vig, yes, but they also edge the odds in a certain direction to make more than the vig.

The odds provide some information but unless you know the distribution of their bettors and their biases or assumed biases, the odds don't say much more than who people who bet with Vegas books think are the favourites.
 
 
This is only partially correct.  Matched odds for a Vegas sports book are the only sure fire way to make money.  Setting the odds initially is a complex mix of art and science, but once the bets start coming in the majority of movement is determined by the house matching the odds more closely to which side the money flows.  Now for something like 2015 WS-chances, I would think that the movement of the Sox from 22:1 down to 8:1 was driven mostly by the bettors.  That said, the odds setting experts also see the acquisitions made by the team and may have been nudging them down along the way to stay one step ahead of the public.  That is, Sox sign Ramirez and Sandoval and even if the bets aren't flowing right away a savvy odds setter may have pushed the odds down to 20:1 or something... taking the difference from the SFG and LAD who lost these players.  NB - This is an over simplification, but I hope my point is clear.
 
Just to repeat, in all profitable gambling establishments the goal is to grind out profits from the smart gamblers and take the rubes who bet on the hard 12 for everything they have.  Matched odds for sports are the bread and butter of any sports book... legal or not.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,721
Anyone know the vegas odds before the 2014 season for the Red Sox, Giants and KC? How about the Red Sox in 2012 and 2013? I have no idea what they were, but now I am curious.
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
Sox were 12:1 in 2014 as defending champions.  Again following a WS victory the actual bets probably drove their odds down below what would have been reasonable...say 20:1.  The SFG were 20:1 to win the WS FWIW.
 
In 2013, the Sox were at 30:1.
 
In 2012 they were at 7:1.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
16,626
Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
Manramsclan said:
 
The Vegas odds have no value in evaluating the improvement that teams have made to their rosters. They have much more to do with covering the Casino's butt and enticing more people to bet for certain teams than they have anything to do with the quality of the team's moves.
 
Can we please refrain from using this as a referendum on the plan of the  Boston Red Sox?
Where it might be useful is letting us know what demand for tickets is going to be like
 

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
959
Connecticut
The Gray Eagle said:
Anyone know the vegas odds before the 2014 season for the Red Sox, Giants and KC? How about the Red Sox in 2012 and 2013? I have no idea what they were, but now I am curious.
 
Well the odds change, so it always depends when in the year you are talking about.
 
I know when the RS picked up Dice K in Mid Dec 2006, the RS odds to win the 2007 WS were 9-1, and even though my rationale might not have been correct (Dice K) I placed a substantial bet on the RS.  So that is one point I remember.
 
and as Ellis states, Vegas does typically try to stay a step ahead on futures. This is no different than the stock market or any other speculative market.  The RS at 8-1 is not just based on betting and their current roster. But also takes into consideration that future moves have a certain probability of occuring, ie, obtaining an #1/2 starter.  The fact that they opened at 22-1 when the season ended is reflective of the science/art Vegas placing odds before bets are placed.  The odds then change based on wagers, roster changes, etc.  
 

JB H

New Member
May 5, 2008
32
While I agree that one can often find a tremendous amount of predictive power in Vegas lines, this is not one of those times.
 
This futures market is not efficient.  There is a tremendous amount of vigorish built in to it.  A bettor also is required to let the casino hold their money for nearly a year.  Because of this, sophisticated bettors, that in other scenarios ruthlessly pound a line into efficiency, are not part of the equation.
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
JB H said:
While I agree that one can often find a tremendous amount of predictive power in Vegas lines, this is not one of those times.
 
This futures market is not efficient.  There is a tremendous amount of vigorish built in to it.  A bettor also is required to let the casino hold their money for nearly a year.  Because of this, sophisticated bettors, that in other scenarios ruthlessly pound a line into efficiency, are not part of the equation.
 
Excellent points.  I think we can lock the thread.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,026
EllisTheRimMan said:
 
Excellent points.  I think we can lock the thread.
 
This thread only exists to stop these people form mucking up the other thread.