I am not sure about that second point, it seems like the smart play down 1 on the road in that situation is hope for the last shot and know if you make it you win.

Do we have stas for Butler attacking right side in transition, since we have pullup 3%.

That's my only nitpick. The Heat had no timeouts left (Thanks Kyle!) so the Cs shoot wiuth time for board, maybe. So whatever odds of the Cs winning if he makes a three or a 2 seem the same.

If you assume 50% chance Cs score (I think lower, having blown a lead)

2 point .5 x .5 Heat win=.25 (Ignoring and 1 opportunity completely) 0% chance win in reg.

3 point shot .4 x .5 Heat win= .2 chance Heat win in reg

So maybe HRB is right but I think Butler is less than 47% on the 3 at that point, this series, and highers than 50% attacking.

But HRB has convinced me it was closer than I thought