Vote how bad a decision did Butler make by shooting?

[reggiecleveland]

I myself, am most grateful Butler decided to shoot a three rather than attack Al in transition.
I think Jimmy with a head of steam on his right had in at least a 50% chance of 2 points and a 10% chance of and 1 to win it.
I think, assuming he is rolling that shot is at best a 40% for Jimmy or a 60% chance to put your fate into getting a rebound.

Thanks Jimmy.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The shot was fine. Open, great look, feeling it the past two games, and you do it early to extend the game if you miss. I’m still stunned it didn’t go in.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Pretty bad. Attacking Al off the dribble is a higher percentage play than jacking up a three there. Shot wasn’t really close either. Front rim and left.

I know he isn’t Jimmy Butler but if Marcus pulled up like that we’d all be losing our shit right now, and he’s a better 3P shooter. No way a quick three by a 20 something percent 3P shooter is the right shot there.

 

[reggiecleveland]

This whjere I am with the whole 3pt shot. Yes the 50% bounsu makes it valuable to shoot a lot. But in a situation where you absolutely must score on a possession it goes back to pure percentage. You don't scare there you lose. Can't have a three by anyone but a great 3 shooter there.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It was a defensible shot strategically but I didn’t like it. He had one guy to beat for a layup and certainly could have drawn a foul or gotten an and-one. It’s also one of the tougher shots in basketball to come down the court, stop on a dime, and launch a 3 from straight one. Really hard to get distance right on a shot like that and a lot of times you do exactly what he did…shoot too hard.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Volgaris made a compelling case that it was the best decision and not really close. After dissecting his points I have to agree. I’ll paraphrase…..

* If Butler makes the two to tie the game the Celtics get the final shot. Between the chances of the Celtics scoring on final possession and the (likely greater than) 50% chance of winning in OT, a made layup likely results in Miami losing the game.

* If Butler makes the 3, the Celtics are likely to shoot quicker to give them a chance to foul and extend game if they miss so even if the Celtics score the Heat would get the ball back for another potential game winning shot.

* Butler’s 3-pt pct is misleading bc he takes nearly all of his three’s against the shot clock when it’s under 5 seconds.

* Butler is a career 47% three-point shooter in open transition threes which this one was considered and had a good rhythm shooting them in this particular game.

 

[RG33]

I have no problem with that shot if I’m a Heat fan.

Also, fuck Jimmy Buckets. And Bam AdeNoShow. And Kyle Flopry. And Max Streusel. And Tyler FashionErro. And Pat Riley’s Fat Ugly Roadkill Face.

 

[LesterFan]

Fwiw he took and made a similar shot in the first half.

View: https://twitter.com/outsidethenba/status/1531112147975032839

 

[bosockboy]

I think the adrenaline got him and made a poor decision.

 

[Spelunker]

I think it was a good shot, it totally terrified me, and my only hope was that his legs were shot at that point from playing so many minutes (and, phew). That said, this made me cry-laugh.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CeKtKqvAIoO/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

[djbayko]

I think the smartest play would have been for Jimmy to take it to a backpedaling Al, since he has been nearly unstoppable around the rim the past 2 games, and it's possible he would have gotten and And 1 to top things off. But that shot is defensible, especially since a long rebound is one highly possible outcome. Butler is a big time player and hits clutch shots all the time, even 3s. You live and die with your best player.

 

[slamminsammya]

Volgaris made a compelling case that it was the best decision and not really close. After dissecting his points I have to agree. I’ll paraphrase…..

* If Butler makes the two to tie the game the Celtics get the final shot. Between the chances of the Celtics scoring on final possession and the (likely greater than) 50% chance of winning in OT, a made layup likely results in Miami losing the game.

* If Butler makes the 3, the Celtics are likely to shoot quicker to give them a chance to foul and extend game if they miss so even if the Celtics score the Heat would get the ball back for another potential game winning shot.

* Butler’s 3-pt pct is misleading bc he takes nearly all of his three’s against the shot clock when it’s under 5 seconds.

* Butler is a career 47% three-point shooter in open transition threes which this one was considered and had a good rhythm shooting them in this particular game.

I am not sure about that second point, it seems like the smart play down 1 on the road in that situation is hope for the last shot and know if you make it you win.

 

[Van Everyman]

How many points did he have in the fourth quarter? I can’t find it anywhere but it didn’t seem like many and that he had gotten tired. I remember asking why guys like Oladipo were taking so many of the shots down the stretch. For that reason alone, I don’t think it was a *great* shot but certainly a defensible one.

Jimmy was tremendous these last two games but he just had tired legs and it showed because the shot itself was a line drive off the front rim.

Notwithstanding the fact that ESPN is still begging for this shot to go in.

 

[Just a bit outside]

How many points did he have in the fourth quarter? I can’t find it anywhere but it didn’t seem like many and that he had gotten tired. I remember asking why guys like Oladipo were taking so many of the shots down the stretch. For that reason alone, I don’t think it was a *great* shot but certainly a defensible one.

Jimmy was tremendous these last two games but he just had tired legs and it showed because the shot itself was a line drive off the front rim.

Notwithstanding the fact that ESPN is still begging for this shot to go in.

He had 4 points in the fourth.

 

[Rusty Gate]

Down 1 clearly the drive to the basket to take the lead. Down 2 the wide open pull up three is the better choice. It puts the Heat ahead if it goes. It extends the game on a miss. The score on the drive ties it up and gives the Celtics the last shot to win it. The and 1 is low probability. It's more likely that if Horford fouls him, he makes sure that Butler doesn't get a clean shot at the basket.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I am not sure about that second point, it seems like the smart play down 1 on the road in that situation is hope for the last shot and know if you make it you win.

Do we have stas for Butler attacking right side in transition, since we have pullup 3%.
That's my only nitpick. The Heat had no timeouts left (Thanks Kyle!) so the Cs shoot wiuth time for board, maybe. So whatever odds of the Cs winning if he makes a three or a 2 seem the same.

If you assume 50% chance Cs score (I think lower, having blown a lead)

2 point .5 x .5 Heat win=.25 (Ignoring and 1 opportunity completely) 0% chance win in reg.
3 point shot .4 x .5 Heat win= .2 chance Heat win in reg

So maybe HRB is right but I think Butler is less than 47% on the 3 at that point, this series, and highers than 50% attacking.

But HRB has convinced me it was closer than I thought

 

[MiracleOfO2704]

I’m in the “good decision, less than good execution” camp. I think he was even surprised with Horford’s positioning, realized just how wide open he was, and quickly put up the shot. I get the feeling that if he set up for 0.1 seconds more, he drains it.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I’m in the “good decision, less than good execution” camp. I think he was even surprised with Horford’s positioning, realized just how wide open he was, and quickly put up the shot. I get the feeling that if he set up for 0.1 seconds more, he drains it.

I just think he was just on fumes more than anything. Maybe he’s a career 47% shooter on open transition threes in the regular season, but in his 48th minute in G7 of the ECF with a sore knee that isn’t close to a 47% shot. Great post by HRB and I get that the numbers are what they are, but given his workload and general three point shooting ability I still think that shot was a prayer.

 

[scottyno]

I myself, am most grateful Butler decided to shoot a three rather than attack Al in transition.
I think Jimmy with a head of steam on his right had in at least a 50% chance of 2 points and a 10% chance of and 1 to win it.
I think, assuming he is rolling that shot is at best a 40% for Jimmy or a 60% chance to put your fate into getting a rebound.

Thanks Jimmy.

If he was 40% to make the 3 then taking the 3 was easily the right choice. If he makes the 3 the heat are probably about 60% to win the game. If he makes the 2 then the heat first have to fade the 40% or so chance of the Cs winning the game in regulation, and then overtime with a team that was clearly gassed, where the Celtics would have been favored.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I just think he was just on fumes more than anything. Maybe he’s a career 47% shooter on open transition threes in the regular season, but in his 48th minute in G7 of the ECF with a sore knee that isn’t close to a 47% shot. Great post by HRB and I get that the numbers are what they are, but given his workload and general three point shooting ability I still think that shot was a prayer.

Great point on it being his 48th minute of a G7.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Terrible but he maybe thought the C's would dominate OT so he felt he had to take it.

Even if you think you're like 25% at best for OT, with Jimmy's skill set you drive and hope for an and-1 I think.

 

[scottyno]

Terrible but he maybe thought the C's would dominate OT so he felt he had to take it.

Even if you think you're like 25% at best for OT, with Jimmy's skill set you drive and hope for an and-1 I think.

He has a way way higher chance of hitting a wide open pull up 3 than getting an and 1 vs a very good defender in position

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He has a way way higher chance of hitting a wide open pull up 3 than getting an and 1 vs a very good defender in position

The refs had swallowed their whistle on penetrations for the prior couple minutes as well. For there to be a whistle Al would have had to clobber him in which case Butler is unlikely to finish.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1531155254863175682?t=ZjrJCRxUB-lBBHnJyMcGRg&s=19

 

[scottyno]

The refs had swallowed their whistle on penetrations for the prior couple minutes as well. For there to be a whistle Al would have had to clobber him in which case Butler is unlikely to finish.

Yeah, there was that one drive earlier in the quarter where Butler drove, Al may have fouled him, but Al stopped playing for a few seconds because he was so sure a whistle was coming and none came. Butler didn't take a free throw in the 4th quarter, in fact I don't think any of the Heat did.

Add in that in the final seconds the refs are going to be less likely to call a foul that can decide a game anyway.

 

[Ed Hillel]

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1531155254863175682?t=ZjrJCRxUB-lBBHnJyMcGRg&s=19

Lol scroll in left there are two Heat fans taking a fucking selfie above Kyle Lowry, who for some reason is dressed in white street clothes wearing a black mask.

 

[Obscure Name]

All I know is I had already visualized the and-1 in my head before he pulled up, and was quite relieved (and quickly back to panicked until he missed).

 

[Gdiguy]

I just think he was just on fumes more than anything. Maybe he’s a career 47% shooter on open transition threes in the regular season, but in his 48th minute in G7 of the ECF with a sore knee that isn’t close to a 47% shot. Great post by HRB and I get that the numbers are what they are, but given his workload and general three point shooting ability I still think that shot was a prayer.

But if he’s on fumes, that also decreases the likelihood he drives well to the basket, no?

I dunno; losing because your best player took and missed an open 3 I think I could live with

 

[reggiecleveland]

Lol scroll in left there are two Heat fans taking a fucking selfie above Kyle Lowry, who for some reason is dressed in white street clothes wearing a black mask.

Lol
Took me a minute

 

[djbayko]

Lol scroll in left there are two Heat fans taking a fucking selfie above Kyle Lowry, who for some reason is dressed in white street clothes wearing a black mask.

This is good.

 

[Devizier]

But if he’s on fumes, that also decreases the likelihood he drives well to the basket, no?

I dunno; losing because your best player took and missed an open 3 I think I could live with

I don’t know if I could live with it, but I was sure it was going in until he released it.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It was an open shot and he was The Man for them in this series. Not the best shot or a becessary one but I don't see how he can be faulted.

Had Jayson, down by 2, taken that shot I think I'd be OK with it.

 

[lexrageorge]

Wasn't a bad decision. Sometimes passing up on the shot that's in front of you is a bad decision. Maybe an unseen (by Butler) Celtic defender closes up before he can reach the rim. Maybe he loses a handle, or Horford makes a play, or the ball goes in-and-out (Marcus Smart missed an easy layup a few seconds before), or he's fouled and forced to hit 2 FT's to tie. He had the open look and the time to shoot, and an offensive rebound wasn't out of the realm of possibility either.

The Celtics top 7 outplayed the Heat's top 7 over a hard fought series. That's the reason the Heat lost, not because of Butler's shot.

 

[bsj]

Can't kill him. He knew he was done.

Although the fawning over the shot on ESPN is a little much

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Volgaris made a compelling case that it was the best decision and not really close. After dissecting his points I have to agree. I’ll paraphrase…..

* If Butler makes the two to tie the game the Celtics get the final shot. Between the chances of the Celtics scoring on final possession and the (likely greater than) 50% chance of winning in OT, a made layup likely results in Miami losing the game.

* If Butler makes the 3, the Celtics are likely to shoot quicker to give them a chance to foul and extend game if they miss so even if the Celtics score the Heat would get the ball back for another potential game winning shot.

* Butler’s 3-pt pct is misleading bc he takes nearly all of his three’s against the shot clock when it’s under 5 seconds.

* Butler is a career 47% three-point shooter in open transition threes which this one was considered and had a good rhythm shooting them in this particular game.

i agree with this. The Celtics were the better team and played better overall—the Heat were on fumes. Miami wants to end game there, not risk an OT. That was appropriately part of the math.

Also, as good a finisher as Butler is Al is very good defensively. Taking that to the hole is not clearly higher expected points than an open three

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

The shot was fine. The long rebound could have easily fallen to a Heat player with a decent chance at a second look. Actually just watched the replay and I'm seeing that Bam didn't even make it back past the C's three-point line and the only rebounders were shrimps. Maybe if Bam hustles he's right there to snatch it from Al. Alas...

 

[Humphrey]

Butler didn't exactly crash the boards after he let the ball go. Perhaps my only criticism of him in that spot. Made it relatively easy for the Celts to come down with the rebound.

 

[Archer1979]

Only a bad choice since he didn't make it. Glad he didn't. We had a houseful of family over watching and we all thought it was going in the second it left his hands. Just the way the momentum had shifted at that point as the Heat were on an 11 - 0 at that point. I wasn't the least surprised that he tried to take that shot since they had the hot hand.

In hindsight, should have taken the 1:1 with Horford to try to tie it up. Would have burned another second or two off the clock. Got to play for at least OT first, then the one point on a potential foul. Celtics would have still had a chance to win it but very little time left. In another timeline, game goes to OT and who knows what happens?

In this timeline, we're on to San Francisco...

 

[Toe Nash]

I thought it was pretty bad since he had played literally the entire game (shot was well short) and the c's were squared away to have a good chance at any potential rebound. There was also lots of clock left and I wonder if they could have gotten a better look by moving the ball to either tie or go ahead with no chance for the C's to answer. Probably you don't wait for the defense to get set there, but even if it goes in Boston can advance the ball and have about 15 seconds to try to win the game.

But, it's not an insane call like every time Giannis took a three for example.

 

[mcpickl]

Do we have stas for Butler attacking right side in transition, since we have pullup 3%.
That's my only nitpick. The Heat had no timeouts left (Thanks Kyle!) so the Cs shoot wiuth time for board, maybe. So whatever odds of the Cs winning if he makes a three or a 2 seem the same.

If you assume 50% chance Cs score (I think lower, having blown a lead)

2 point .5 x .5 Heat win=.25 (Ignoring and 1 opportunity completely) 0% chance win in reg.
3 point shot .4 x .5 Heat win= .2 chance Heat win in reg

So maybe HRB is right but I think Butler is less than 47% on the 3 at that point, this series, and highers than 50% attacking.

But HRB has convinced me it was closer than I thought

This math only works if you're giving Butler a 40% chance of hitting that open three, and a 100% chance of making a two instead.

In this calculation, Butler would have to have an 80% chance at making a two to be better than shooting that open three(that's ignoring and 1 completely and assuming it's a 50/50 game in OT)

I think that's the right shot for Butler to take. I can say for myself, I was terrified when he pulled up. As a Celtics fan, I wanted nothing more than for him to attempt a 2 pointer there.

 

[moondog80]

I saw something where Butler had a high % of his 3s year coming at the end of the shot clock -- rushed after a good 23 seconds of defense by the other team. I don't remember exactly how the numbers broke down, but it stands to reason that if he's not getting the same looks at Duncan Robinson, his low % is going to be misleading, at least a little.

 

[the1andonly3003]

Butler should have held it for the game winning/tying score. There was too much time on the clock for the Cs to respond.

 

[Jimbodandy]

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1531155254863175682?t=ZjrJCRxUB-lBBHnJyMcGRg&s=19

My favorite part of this picture is Tatum is so close to Strus that he should probably buy him dinner. That's one guy who was not getting a shot off.

 

[DJnVa]

Notwithstanding the fact that ESPN is still begging for this shot to go in.

You really think ESPN would prefer a Heat-Warriors matchup? No way.

 

[TripleOT]

Volgaris made a compelling case that it was the best decision and not really close. After dissecting his points I have to agree. I’ll paraphrase…..

* If Butler makes the two to tie the game the Celtics get the final shot. Between the chances of the Celtics scoring on final possession and the (likely greater than) 50% chance of winning in OT, a made layup likely results in Miami losing the game.

* If Butler makes the 3, the Celtics are likely to shoot quicker to give them a chance to foul and extend game if they miss so even if the Celtics score the Heat would get the ball back for another potential game winning shot.

* Butler’s 3-pt pct is misleading bc he takes nearly all of his three’s against the shot clock when it’s under 5 seconds.

* Butler is a career 47% three-point shooter in open transition threes which this one was considered and had a good rhythm shooting them in this particular game.

Did he mention that Butler had played 47 minutes, and possibly didn’t have the legs to make a three. Did he mention that Butler was struggling in the 4th, going 2-5, making only layups, one aided by an off arm push off, instead of his usual leap when he had his legs?

 

[slamminsammya]

I saw something where Butler had a high % of his 3s year coming at the end of the shot clock -- rushed after a good 23 seconds of defense by the other team. I don't remember exactly how the numbers broke down, but it stands to reason that if he's not getting the same looks at Duncan Robinson, his low % is going to be misleading, at least a little.

The reason he doesn't take 3s in the first place is that he knows he can't shoot them well. So, yeah - higher degree of difficulty on the 3s he does take, but also his shot selection indicates he is probably < 33% or so and he knows it.

 

[Euclis20]

Butler should have held it for the game winning/tying score. There was too much time on the clock for the Cs to respond.

Definitely not. You only hold for the final shot if the game is tied, if you're losing you need to take the first good shot available so if you miss, you aren't dead in the water. Run the clock down and not only do you only get one chance, it would have had to be against the Celtics half court defense - Miami had struggled mightily all series to score outside of transition. If Butler had pulled it back and ran the clock down to <5 seconds, that would have been a massive error and he (and the Heat) would have rightly been killed for it.

 

[Nator]

That was stupid. The way the momentum was going and the crowd was going crazy, if he takes it to the rim and Al so much as gives him a dirty look they are blowing a whistle, so he'd either have 2 free throws, or the and-1.

 

[patinorange]

Like Marcus, if you are wide open you have to take it. No problem with the shot. He was the man carrying them and he probably felt he needed to win it. And he knew after 48 minutes he wasn't going to be much in OT.

 

[slamminsammya]

That was stupid. The way the momentum was going and the crowd was going crazy, if he takes it to the rim and Al so much as gives him a dirty look they are blowing a whistle, so he'd either have 2 free throws, or the and-1.

The refs were letting tons and tons of contact go those last 5 minutes. Not sure they were going to call anything at that point