Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,219
Somerville, MA
I wonder if Gilmore’s contract status prevented them from spending the rest of their cap space. Didn’t sound like he was going to play under his current contract and it’s been pretty silent.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
Heh ... part of me wants to believe that if the Patriots and Titans made the exact same offer, the Falcons would still pick Tennessee because of 28-3 hangover.
Yeah, who knows about the specifics so we’ll have to see but really thought he made sense and it was a perfect time to take another shot at WR.

Oh well, stay healthy, Agholor...
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon
Yeah, who knows about the specifics so we’ll have to see but really thought he made sense and it was a perfect time to take another shot at WR.
Right there with you. I was really hoping for this one.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,767
Hartford, CT
The exact compensation and dollars will be interesting. This trade makes more sense for the Titans than the Patriots. The Titans just lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith and, unlike the Pats, they have a straightforward path to finding the cap space to take Jones on while leaving themselves enough space to sign their picks and make mid year moves (e.g., convert a large chunk of Tannehill’s salary to a signing bonus).

The Pats are gonna have to deal with Gilmore’s contract ahead of the season (he is not playing at a 7M salary), so unless they restructured several veterans’ deals to push cap charges into 2022 (DMC, Hightower) in addition to absorbing the Julio cap charge I think it would have been difficult, if possible, to make it work. They’ve got a lot of pending FA next year (Brown, JC Jackson, Gilmore, DMC, Hightower, most notably), and a good chunk of their 30M in projected cap space will need to go to signing some of those guys or others to fill out the roster and the team already has over 50M in cap charges allocated to WR/TE next year.

I would have liked to see Julio in a Pats uni, but I get the lack of aggression (from what the local guys have reported over the weeks, they’ve been monitoring but not interested at the selling price) given the cap dynamic and the team’s realistic contention window. So, I am disappointed but I get it.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,089
A Scud Away from Hell
Disappointed but not surprised.

It's still going to be the Harris & Smith show for Cam and/or Mac.

At least we are getting some encouraging news on Agholor & Bourne from the OTAs.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,367
I expected (and still do) the Pats will add 1-2 more speed guys like Hall who are cap casualties elsewhere.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,711
I will now begin to shift my own personal narrative to him being too old and too often injured in order to cope.
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,391
Good trade all around it seems to me. TENN lost some WR depth this off-season and ATL needs as many high picks as they can gather. I would have been more excited to go after JJ if we had a better QB situation. A star like that—even in the later stages of his career—didn’t make a ton of sense for the current team. And against all odds I’m not ready to give up on Harry, which may have been a consequence of a trade.
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,278
I had been under the impression that the Patriots had a better cap situation than Tennessee, even with the specter of Gilmore’s contract. Fine with BB saying no, but I don’t see how the Titans are better positioned to make this deal. They seem right up against it, cap-wise, no?
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,219
Somerville, MA
I had been under the impression that the Patriots had a better cap situation than Tennessee, even with the specter of Gilmore’s contract. Fine with BB saying no, but I don’t see how the Titans are better positioned to make this deal. They seem right up against it, cap-wise, no?
The Titans have a few contracts they can rework to push money into future years. All of the FA the Patriots signed already have contracts structured to push money into future years.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,558
Here
The Titans have a few contracts they can rework to push money into future years. All of the FA the Patriots signed already have contracts structured to push money into future years.
Yes, though now they are kind of over a barrel, similar to how Dallas put itself in a shitty spot before Romo’s extension. You definitely have some agents salivating over this, particularly Tannehill’s.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

family crest has godzilla
SoSH Member
Jul 26, 2007
3,721
The Short Bus
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was the Titans OC last year, right? Have to believe he was pretty straight up with Vrabel regarding Jones’ physical condition, etc.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,870
ct
Through the first 8 games, Brady had a 95 QB rating, ~65% completion, 7.3 YPA, and the team was 8-0. It wasn't vintage Brady, and there were ugly patches (like the Buffalo game), but it was fine. That dropped to 80.8, ~57%, 5.9 in the final 8 games (which was when Harry and Sanu started figuring prominently), and that decline happened even though the OL was better.



The relationship between cushion and the route isn't apples to apples, though. If I'm running a speed out against a CB who's giving me an 8-yard cushion, it doesn't require any skill to separate by 3-4 yards, because I'm starting out with separation (the cushion) and cutting early and away from the CB. If I'm running a post, it's a different story; I've got to eat up that cushion before I make my break, and my separation needs to be in the opposite direction from the cushion. Separating by 3-4 yards in that scenario requires way more skill.
The exact compensation and dollars will be interesting. This trade makes more sense for the Titans than the Patriots. The Titans just lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith and, unlike the Pats, they have a straightforward path to finding the cap space to take Jones on while leaving themselves enough space to sign their picks and make mid year moves (e.g., convert a large chunk of Tannehill’s salary to a signing bonus).

The Pats are gonna have to deal with Gilmore’s contract ahead of the season (he is not playing at a 7M salary), so unless they restructured several veterans’ deals to push cap charges into 2022 (DMC, Hightower) in addition to absorbing the Julio cap charge I think it would have been difficult, if possible, to make it work. They’ve got a lot of pending FA next year (Brown, JC Jackson, Gilmore, DMC, Hightower, most notably), and a good chunk of their 30M in projected cap space will need to go to signing some of those guys or others to fill out the roster and the team already has over 50M in cap charges allocated to WR/TE next year.

I would have liked to see Julio in a Pats uni, but I get the lack of aggression (from what the local guys have reported over the weeks, they’ve been monitoring but not interested at the selling price) given the cap dynamic and the team’s realistic contention window. So, I am disappointed but I get it.
I am not disappointed. Remember Julio Jones is an over the hill dome player who would suck playing in the cold Northeast. At least that's what I'm comforted by as its @Deathofthebambino 's point. Hope he's right.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,749
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
The cap hit only matters because they don't know what they have at quarterback. If the Patriots were set at the position paying Julio Jones that kind of money to complement the rest of the offensive pieces for a second rounder would be an absolute no brainer.
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,219
Somerville, MA
The cap hit only matters because they don't know what they have at quarterback. If the Patriots were set at the position paying Julio Jones that kind of money to complement the rest of the offensive pieces for a second rounder would be an absolute no brainer.
This is a good point. Bringing in Julio almost forces a transition to Mac in 2022 and if he doesn’t develop you have no flexibility. But if they were set at that position it would probably be with a guy with a higher cap hit.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon
You're all forgetting the worst aspect of this ... cue the annual OBJ rumors!
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,749
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
This is a good point. Bringing in Julio almost forces a transition to Mac in 2022 and if he doesn’t develop you have no flexibility. But if they were set at that position it would probably be with a guy with a higher cap hit.
Maybe not. If Mac were, say, in his third year and had already proven himself a top half starter, things would be very different. It's bad timing more than anything.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
I would have loved taking the flyer on him, it would have created even more excitement for this season, but I am totally fine not giving up the last picks in the 2nd and 4th rounds or the 2022 draft for him. Onward. . . .
 

Jerry’s Curl

New Member
Feb 6, 2018
2,518
Florida
I’m ok with him going to the Titans. Assuming Cam is mediocre and Mac takes over at some point, we are still a couple of years away from being realistic contenders. By then, I’m sure we can get a #1 WR.
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,351
Would’ve liked to bring him in, but I’m not too upset. I don’t think that price is crazy, but between the QB uncertainty and the potential he wants a new deal I’m fine with not pushing all the chips onto the table. Sign me up for 11 months of our resident draft experts breaking down the WR prospects in next year’s draft.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
Would’ve liked to bring him in, but I’m not too upset. I don’t think that price is crazy, but between the QB uncertainty and the potential he wants a new deal I’m fine with not pushing all the chips onto the table. Sign me up for 11 months of our resident draft experts breaking down the WR prospects in next year’s draft.
Word, and then we draft a DT and an OG and a punter.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,271
AZ
I had been under the impression that the Patriots had a better cap situation than Tennessee, even with the specter of Gilmore’s contract. Fine with BB saying no, but I don’t see how the Titans are better positioned to make this deal. They seem right up against it, cap-wise, no?
Everything you see about cap numbers represents a static view of what is actually a much more fluid situation. It is virtually never the full picture. To truly compare two teams you need a version of Miguel for both of them and even then what you see is incomplete. Without a deep dive on the entire roster the numbers of space at any given time are not very significant.

Just to pick an easy example, you never see NLTBE incentives that will surely be earned. There are dozens of little things like this for each team that represent either cap money in the bank that they have stashed away or loans against future cap money that they have silently taken that are not at all reflected in the cap number you see today.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,767
Hartford, CT
Yeah the 2022 pill with Tannehill was inevitable, there was no other path to making that work. They were cap committed to him anyway, so the downside is fewer cap dollars.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,837
That's a big dead cap number to get out of a mediocre QB's contract.
He really hasn't been mediocre in Tennessee though. His rating the last 2 seasons is 110.6 and with 55 TDs and only 13 INTs. Perhaps Miami just didn't know what they were doing.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Arthur Smith’s offense was also fantastic. He utilized one of the highest rates of play-action passing in the league. Titans also had good offensive lines so far during his tenure combined with some excellent skilled position players including the guy the Patriots should have taken at 32 instead of N’Keal Harry in AJ Brown. Good offensive line + Henry + AJ Brown + Julio should still be enough for Tanne next year. Will be interested to see how the Titans perform without Smith now that he is going to revitalize Atlanta.