Week 1 Pre-Game Thread: Miami

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
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Kenny F'ing Powers

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I’m not a betting man, but themat spread seems low. Normal home field is worth 3, right? Would seem that Miami in early September might be worth a point more than that.
And I would have to guess that Miami should still be favored in a neutral site.
Hmmm.
Yeah. I may be hammering Miami here. I don't have a ton of faith in them, but I think they're better than the Patriots.
 

j44thor

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Yeah. I may be hammering Miami here. I don't have a ton of faith in them, but I think they're better than the Patriots.
I'll be watching the sharps closely on this one as the line almost feels like a trap. NE hasn't won in MIA last 4 yrs and the national media has really turned on NE. I'm surprised the line isn't closer to -6.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I'll be watching the sharps closely on this one as the line almost feels like a trap. NE hasn't won in MIA last 4 yrs and the national media has really turned on NE. I'm surprised the line isn't closer to -6.
That's fair.

Good news for me is that I picked the Pats to win 11+ games. Hedging my bets.

I really have no fucking clue what to expect from them. The fact I'm more comfortable with who Miami is? Weird.
 

tims4wins

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There’s only one prediction I am confident of (the if healthy thing) Miami is going to blow New England off the field in week 1.
I know that probably comes off as trolly based on where we’re posting - but it’s simply the situation - i wouldn’t make any such proclamation for when the team heads to NE - but playing in the Miami heat, Bill having little idea what the Dolphins offense will actually look like, the Dolphins returning everyone from an aggressive defense facing an offense with new coaches, the NE secondary likely being a weak spot to start etc etc. it’s really the ideal situation to face them. I’ll likely be betting alternate spreads up to the 17 range.
Pulling from the Miami thread. Nothing we've seen over the past month makes me think that this prediction is off base, unfortunately.

The heat may be less of a factor since they plan to travel on Tuesday. And the Pats secondary is looking better than most anticipated heading into camp. But I'm still expecting a 2-3 score win for Miami.
 

joe dokes

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The heat may be less of a factor since they plan to travel on Tuesday. And the Pats secondary is looking better than most anticipated heading into camp. But I'm still expecting a 2-3 score win for Miami.
I'm no athlete, but a few days may not matter for heat. I can't possibly overestimate just how fucking hot it is in south Florida these days.
It feels like a science experiment, or an attempt to colonize a planet much closer to a sun. 85degrees 75dewpoint at midnight.
 

Rico Guapo

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Pulling from the Miami thread. Nothing we've seen over the past month makes me think that this prediction is off base, unfortunately.

The heat may be less of a factor since they plan to travel on Tuesday. And the Pats secondary is looking better than most anticipated heading into camp. But I'm still expecting a 2-3 score win for Miami.
Miami will be missing Byron Jones, their OL isn't good, and neither is Tua. They have a good front seven and dangerous wide receivers in Hill and Waddle but I don't think Tua is capable of taking full advantage of either guy.

I'm much more worried about the weather than the coaching staffs where BB has an obvious advantage over a rookie HC.
 

dynomite

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Miami will be missing Byron Jones, their OL isn't good, and neither is Tua. ... I'm much more worried about the weather than the coaching staffs where BB has an obvious advantage over a rookie HC.
I've been thinking about Tua -- if given a choice between Tua and Mac I would immediately choose Mac, but they have remarkably similar stat lines through the early parts of their career. Mac has an edge in Y/A and a few other stats, but they seem roughly similar -- again, lots to be said about Mac's surrounding cast, last year being his rookie season (after not starting all that many games in college and indeed sitting behind Tua), etc.

As for the coaching staffs, while obviously BB is here as we know basically the entire Patriots offensive coaching staff decamped for Vegas this offseason, so both teams will be debuting new schemes and adjusting.

Overall, it's hard to overlook getting swept in 2 games last year against Miami and the widespread concern about the Patriots throughout Training Camp. But aren't those the moments when prior Belichick teams always seem to pull a rabbit out of a hat? Interested to hear more from members on here how they might do that against a talented Dolphins roster.

Mac Jones Career Tua Tagovailoa
17 Games Played 23
352 Completions 449
521 Pass Attempts 678
67.6% Completion % 66.2%
3,801 Passing Yards 4,467
22 Passing Touchdowns 27
4.2% Touchdown Percentage 4.0%
13 Interceptions 15
2.5% Interception Percentage 2.2%
75 Longest Pass 35
7.3 Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.6
7.0 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4
10.8 Yards Per Completion 9.9
223.6 Passing Yards Per Game 194.2
92.5 Quarterback Rating 87.1
28 Times Sacked 40
241 Yards Lost by Sack 288
6.5 Net Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.8
6.2 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt 5.6
5.1% Sack Percentage 5.6%
 

cshea

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Pulling from the Miami thread. Nothing we've seen over the past month makes me think that this prediction is off base, unfortunately.

The heat may be less of a factor since they plan to travel on Tuesday. And the Pats secondary is looking better than most anticipated heading into camp. But I'm still expecting a 2-3 score win for Miami.
Miami may very well run us off the field, but the coaching take is a strange one to point to. Both teams have new offensive staffs, but despite the same, if not more coaching turnover, Miami is confident they'll be a well oiled machine right out of the gate while the Pats struggle.

Again, the result may be the same but it's a strange take.

Edit: Now that I read the other thread I see this point was made.
 

Shaky Walton

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The logic supporting a Fins blow out, as described above, is hard to dismiss. The Pats often look hideous in South Florida and not having any game film on this year's team is indeed a disadvantage for a coaching staff who preys on tendencies.

That said, I have a sixth sense that the Pats are more than a little pissed off at all of the negativity and are going to take it out on Miami. And there's Tua, who is an inaccurate passer except when playing NE.

I think the Pats are going to blow them out. Not exactly a reverse lock but that's my prediction. It's worth absolutely nothing but I am enjoying the possibility.
 

rymflaherty

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^ @cshea
Just noticed it was my quote I think you’re speaking of, so to speak to the coaching take - it’s the simple fact that Miami went from arguably the worst offensive coaching situation in the league to (what I think) a genius, while the Pats went from arguably an offensive genius to a situation that’s starting to look like Miami’s last year.
So, yes both have new staffs, and that’s going to bring question marks, but at least in my head they are virtually polar opposite situations (on paper)

Then on the other side of the ball, I think the unknown is actually a positive when dealing with Bill B.and his ability to scheme, and conversely Miami does return their DC (for better or worse) and virtually everyone on that side of the ball. And I may very well regret these words, but the unknown the NE offense brings doesn’t seem nearly as scary.

Also, I’m regards to the comparison stat post - I know everyone likes to laugh at Tua’s arm strength, but his long last year was 65. He gets slandered enough as is, figure I need to at least pouring out the actual number.

edit - fwiw I posted that a week or two ago. The fact that the Patriots struggles have become a national talking point, and my post wasn’t met with pitchforks by all of you guys actually makes me feel worse about the runaway victory prediction lol
 
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tims4wins

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The logic supporting a Fins blow out, as described above, is hard to dismiss. The Pats often look hideous in South Florida and not having any game film on this year's team is indeed a disadvantage for a coaching staff who preys on tendencies.

That said, I have a sixth sense that the Pats are more than a little pissed off at all of the negativity and are going to take it out on Miami. And there's Tua, who is an inaccurate passer except when playing NE.

I think the Pats are going to blow them out. Not exactly a reverse lock but that's my prediction. It's worth absolutely nothing but I am enjoying the possibility.
While my gut says Miami wins by 2-3 score wins, I can absolutely see this happening too
 

rodderick

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I don't see a blowout either way, most of the recent matchups have been close affairs and I'm expecting this one to follow a similar script. My worry is Miami's running game, the last time a Mike McDaniel coached rushing offense played the Patriots, the 49ers shellacked them on the ground. Focus on stopping that and the Pats will be alright. Don't care how many weapons he has, if the game is on Tua I'm pretty confident we'll pull this one off, even if the offense struggles out of the gate.
 

BuellMiller

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Early 30 year old safety and ST with zero turnovers or sacks the year before goes to a divisional rival that the Patriots play on the road opening day. Somewhere TJ probably is muttering the Patriots still hate their coach.
 

j-man

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it's funny when TJ said they hate their coach he must had overlook elway and dan reeves because it is my befelie had reeves stayed in denver for 93 he would had traded elway for plob 2 ones and a three where to u ask my 3 guesses are Wash LA Rams Minn
 

bakahump

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No Langi.....so addition by subtraction.

Not sure why(ok I know why....I dont think he is good) but i really dont like him.
 

bakahump

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Evidently hurt. Or maybe personal issues.
Idc if he is a locker room attendant. Langi sucks and needs to go. Disappointing we couldnt find a better player then him to keep even if only on the PS.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Evidently hurt. Or maybe personal issues.


Idc if he is a locker room attendant. Langi sucks and needs to go. Disappointing we couldnt find a better player then him to keep even if only on the PS.

Oh, I see -- I glossed over the part of the tweet that said Langi was missing. Thought you'd seen that somewhere else.
 

Bowhemian

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Not anymore he isn't. It's a Cardinal sin for a Patriot player to reveal playing status prior to the game. Benched.
I'm only half joking.
 

lexrageorge

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The fact he was made available to the media for that interview means he was already cleared to say he was playing
 

Jungleland

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LJH!!!!!!! Let’s goooo! Legitimately happy for the dude, I didn’t think he had a shot when camp started, but he played his ass off in the preseason. If active, I’m interested to see if he works in at tight end or if he’s just a reserve WR.

I feel like I’m missing a transaction somewhere. Thornton got IRed and I don’t believe there was a corresponding bump up until now, but who’s the other spot?
 

lexrageorge

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LJH!!!!!!! Let’s goooo! Legitimately happy for the dude, I didn’t think he had a shot when camp started, but he played his ass off in the preseason. If active, I’m interested to see if he works in at tight end or if he’s just a reserve WR.

I feel like I’m missing a transaction somewhere. Thornton got IRed and I don’t believe there was a corresponding bump up until now, but who’s the other spot?
Ferentz took Thornton's spot on the roster.

Teams can elevate 2 practice squad players to the active roster prior to game day. So teams have essentially a 55 man roster, of which 48 can be active for game day. After the game, Langi and Humphrey can be returned to the PS without having to pass through waivers. Players can be elevated from PS to roster up to 3 times in this manner, after which they have to be named to the actual 53-man roster.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Ferentz took Thornton's spot on the roster.

Teams can elevate 2 practice squad players to the active roster prior to game day. So teams have essentially a 55 man roster, of which 48 can be active for game day. After the game, Langi and Humphrey can be returned to the PS without having to pass through waivers. Players can be elevated from PS to roster up to 3 times in this manner, after which they have to be named to the actual 53-man roster.
I suspect they aren’t likely to elevate someone and then not activate them for the game.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I put a $15 spite bet on Miami, so things are looking up for the pats.

Edit: like many I am increasingly concerned that the Pats secondary has no one up to the task of covering those WRs though.
 
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lexrageorge

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I suspect they aren’t likely to elevate someone and then not activate them for the game.
I'm guessing if either get a snap it will be on special teams. Not sure they are that concerned about "burning the option" for either player; this season is likely Langi's last hurrah anyway.
 

Arroyoyo

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So, I’m in Texas now. Is it just me or is it now impossible to legally get out of market Patriots game access without a full DirectTV subscription?

Which means a two year commitment, which is insanely stupid?
 

Preacher

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So, I’m in Texas now. Is it just me or is it now impossible to legally get out of market Patriots game access without a full DirectTV subscription?

Which means a two year commitment, which is insanely stupid?
You’d think with all the streaming options there’d be some other option. You can stream games on Paramount+ but only ones televised in your local area.
 

Arroyoyo

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Yeah it’s a mess. I thought I’d wake up today and subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket but…nope. You have to be a college kid or live in an area that for some reason cannot support a “dish” installation. Otherwise, you can only get it if you subscribe to DirectTV with a 2-year commitment.

Their contract ends with the NFL after this season so this is their sleazy way of trying to lock people into getting the dish for two years.

Illegal streaming it is.
 

Reverend

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Yeah it’s a mess. I thought I’d wake up today and subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket but…nope. You have to be a college kid or live in an area that for some reason cannot support a “dish” installation. Otherwise, you can only get it if you subscribe to DirectTV with a 2-year commitment.

Their contract ends with the NFL after this season so this is their sleazy way of trying to lock people into getting the dish for two years.

Illegal streaming it is.
It’s the NFL. Steal feeds and leave them on for games you aren’t even watching just on basic principle.