Week 5 NFL Game Thread

Reverend

for king and country
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Jimmy G sporting a highly misleading 70% completion rate.
 

JCizzle

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Pettis is heading toward another benching next week after a big catch against the Steelers two weeks ago
 

heavyde050

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He shouldn't have bobbled it in my opinion. I guess he probably has a few more weeks until Taylor and Hurd theoretically return.
I don't think Hurd is coming back, and JG did lead him a bit. I think the timing is off. For the most part, the 49er receivers have made life easier for Jimmy G tonight.
 

DJnVa

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Browns have loads of talent and they are wasting a year of it with Kitchens.
 

Super Nomario

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I was fading the Browns pretty hard in the preseason and they've been even worse than I expected. Tons of factors that lead to a team being overrated:
  • Too much emphasis on offseason moves
  • They gained a lot of players in the offseason (Beckham, Vernon, Murray) but lost a lot too (Zeitler, Ogbah, Peppers, Johnson)
  • They have stud skill players but a meh OL
  • They have great stars but mediocre depth
  • They have a lot of young players and improvement is not always linear
  • They did well at the end of last year and such trends don't always continue
I don't think they'll be this bad all year though. They have the fourth-worst point differential in the AFC right now.
 

johnmd20

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I was fading the Browns pretty hard in the preseason and they've been even worse than I expected. Tons of factors that lead to a team being overrated:
  • Too much emphasis on offseason moves
  • They gained a lot of players in the offseason (Beckham, Vernon, Murray) but lost a lot too (Zeitler, Ogbah, Peppers, Johnson)
  • They have stud skill players but a meh OL
  • They have great stars but mediocre depth
  • They have a lot of young players and improvement is not always linear
  • They did well at the end of last year and such trends don't always continue
I don't think they'll be this bad all year though. They have the fourth-worst point differential in the AFC right now.
They also have the Odell Beckham disease. He's great, but he's never on great teams.

6-10 in 2014. 6-10 in 2015. 11-5 in 2016, the outlier year, but got MURDERED in the playoffs. Beckham was partying in Miami days before the game.

3-17 in 2017. 5-11 in 2018. 2-3 in 2019.

I know he didn't play all the games, as he's also very easily injured, but it seems like he's always a major distraction and that doesn't help the team. It's the reverse Belichick. Baker Mayfield isn't helping matters, either. Both should focus on the fucking game and not on all these other extra curricular tussles and Rex Ryan slights and watches and handshakes and stupidity.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the Browns FO was pretty smart with buying draft picks by taking on Osweiler, etc. to get to this point. it's shocking they flubbed on the coaching hire.
 

Super Nomario

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They also have the Odell Beckham disease. He's great, but he's never on great teams.

6-10 in 2014. 6-10 in 2015. 11-5 in 2016, the outlier year, but got MURDERED in the playoffs. Beckham was partying in Miami days before the game.

3-17 in 2017. 5-11 in 2018. 2-3 in 2019.

I know he didn't play all the games, as he's also very easily injured, but it seems like he's always a major distraction and that doesn't help the team. It's the reverse Belichick. Baker Mayfield isn't helping matters, either. Both should focus on the fucking game and not on all these other extra curricular tussles and Rex Ryan slights and watches and handshakes and stupidity.
I don't think Beckham is the problem or even a problem - he's a great player. The records you cite show how little any great non-QB matters in the grand scheme of things. That's part of the problem - people thought that because the Browns have Beckham, Vernon, Garrett, Landry, etc. they'd be excellent, when in actuality the stars only have so much impact and you need a strong roster 10-53. The Giants with Beckham didn't, and the Browns with Beckham have the same problem (the same has been true of any number of teams with other great non-QBs, of course: Julio, Moss, Barry Sanders, Khalil Mack, J.J. Watt, etc.).

the Browns FO was pretty smart with buying draft picks by taking on Osweiler, etc. to get to this point. it's shocking they flubbed on the coaching hire.
I think Kitchens is getting too much blame and the major problem is that the roster isn't that good, but I do think they deliberately wanted to hire a "weak" HC. Under Jimmy Haslam, the GMs, HCs, etc. have been in constant conflict because he has no idea how to hire one person to do a job and stay out of his way. So Dorsey (IMO) wanted to hire a HC with no gravitas who wouldn't threaten his status with Haslam. It's the same reason (again, IMO) Sashi Brown didn't hire a real GM even though he was originally planning to.

(FWIW, I wasn't a huge fan of the Osweiler trade - nice idea, but $16 MM for a 2nd is a hefty price)
 

5dice

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  • Too much emphasis on offseason moves
  • They gained a lot of players in the offseason (Beckham, Vernon, Murray) but lost a lot too (Zeitler, Ogbah, Peppers, Johnson)
  • They have stud skill players but a meh OL
  • They have great stars but mediocre depth
  • They have a lot of young players and improvement is not always linear
  • They did well at the end of last year and such trends don't always continue
Nailed it. My additions in bold

  • Too much emphasis on offseason moves -- Unlike the NBA where 3 headlining divas engineering their fate can make a championship team, doesn't work in NFL yet
  • They gained a lot of players in the offseason (Beckham, Vernon, Murray) but lost a lot too (Zeitler, Ogbah, Peppers, Johnson) - Add Jamie Collins to that
  • They have stud skill players but a meh OL - Prayer throws off the back foot on the run 2-3 times per series if you are not Mahomes is not a game plan that can succeed, no matter the WR talent
  • They have great stars but mediocre depth - This is like a fantasy football team
  • They did well at the end of last year and such trends don't always continue - Hard to play every week in the spotlight. Careful what you wish for with talking before walking and media hype. They did what they did last year with nothing to lose.
 

E5 Yaz

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They have stud skill players but a meh OL
I know the 49ers have a stellar D-line, but this point is really the Jenga block that stirs the drink. Weak upfront just strengthens Baker's desire to leave the pocket and hold the ball longer, which makes their offense break down.

All those player moves and its the Joe Thomas injury that was the killer
 

BaseballJones

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SSS alert.

Mahomes' first three games: 82-114 (71.9%), 1195 yds, 10.5 y/a, 10 td, 0 int, 134.9 rating
Mahomes' last two games: 46-81 (56.8%), 636 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 86.2 rating

Probably just a blip.
 

tims4wins

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SSS alert.

Mahomes' first three games: 82-114 (71.9%), 1195 yds, 10.5 y/a, 10 td, 0 int, 134.9 rating
Mahomes' last two games: 46-81 (56.8%), 636 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 86.2 rating

Probably just a blip.
Could have to do with pressure rate, although that's been up and down all year. However, this is interesting to me. Detroit and Indy both played a lot of man. Here are Mahomes' splits this year vs. man / zone:
vs Man: 48-92, 674, 1 TD, 4 sack, 79.7 rating, 4.17% sack rate, 44% positive plays
vs Zone: 55-74, 957, 8 TD, 3 sack, 152.1 rating, 3.90% sack rate, 64% positive plays
 

BaseballJones

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Could have to do with pressure rate, although that's been up and down all year. However, this is interesting to me. Detroit and Indy both played a lot of man. Here are Mahomes' splits this year vs. man / zone:
vs Man: 48-92, 674, 1 TD, 4 sack, 79.7 rating, 4.17% sack rate, 44% positive plays
vs Zone: 55-74, 957, 8 TD, 3 sack, 152.1 rating, 3.90% sack rate, 64% positive plays
That would bode well for the Pats, who play predominantly man pass defense, with a bunch of excellent coverage guys. The LBs would have to keep Mahomes in the pocket but it would seem that from this data you present, the Pats are ideally equipped to give Mahomes fits (as much as that's possible).
 

Ralphwiggum

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The ankle was clearly limiting Mahomes in the Indy game. The thing that makes him unique is his ability to throw on the run from outside the pocket. If he can't do that or if his ability to escape pressure is limited it's not surprising that he cannot put up video game numbers.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Could have to do with pressure rate, although that's been up and down all year. However, this is interesting to me. Detroit and Indy both played a lot of man. Here are Mahomes' splits this year vs. man / zone:
vs Man: 48-92, 674, 1 TD, 4 sack, 79.7 rating, 4.17% sack rate, 44% positive plays
vs Zone: 55-74, 957, 8 TD, 3 sack, 152.1 rating, 3.90% sack rate, 64% positive plays
Mahomes has expressly admitted that this is an issue for the Chiefs and has vowed to work on it. Here's hoping they don't figure it out until the offseason (or, ideally, never).
 

E5 Yaz

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Detroit and Indy both played a lot of man.
Heard this on the radio the other day and immediately thought of the Patriots ability to play this style. That, of course, would be made more difficult if Hill is back for that game
 

tims4wins

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That would bode well for the Pats, who play predominantly man pass defense, with a bunch of excellent coverage guys. The LBs would have to keep Mahomes in the pocket but it would seem that from this data you present, the Pats are ideally equipped to give Mahomes fits (as much as that's possible).
Mahomes has expressly admitted that this is an issue for the Chiefs and has vowed to work on it. Here's hoping they don't figure it out until the offseason (or, ideally, never).
Heard this on the radio the other day and immediately thought of the Patriots ability to play this style. That, of course, would be made more difficult if Hill is back for that game
Held Mahomes to 16-31 in the AFCCG, though he still threw for a bunch of yards and 3 TD vs. 0 INT. But 16-31 was meaningful.
 

SMU_Sox

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KC's WRs are banged up or out so that hurts them, like Hill, Watkins, etc. Mahomes is injured too. It's very SSS.

@Reverend it cracks me up man that people shout-out blueprint and it's like do they have the personnel to actually pull it off? Will KC still be beat up? Will the line keep disciplined in man when Mahomes is healthy to prevent those scrambles? It's so many things.

They have an issue vs man at the moment but this is Andy fucking Reid. He will have a hoagie and solve it.
 

DeadlySplitter

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at least 7 of KC's 31 points in the AFCCG 2nd half (and the last passing TD we have given up to this day, in fact) was on a garbage non-call on a pick play.

will KC be tough? of course they will. Will Bill scheme with this elite defense and hold KC under 30 at Foxboro? very likely.