Week 5 Survivor

glennhoffmania

but still failing
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I'm having a tough time making a decision this week and I'd like to see what other people are doing in their pools.  I had planned to use Bal v. Cle but that pick doesn't seem as great as it did a couple of weeks ago.  KC v. Chi, Atl v. Was and NYG v. SF are other options (I already used GB).  I'm kind of leaning towards Atl right now since they've surprisingly looked very good.
 
 
 
 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Wow, rough week.  I can only imagine the discussions we would have had.

If you go by net point differential, a quick glance suggests that NYG (+20) over SF (-62) would be the game to pick.
 

DanoooME

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I'd go Chiefs.  The only other potential times to use them are against Detroit and Cleveland.  Atlanta has a few more options for use later.
 

tims4wins

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I think all of those games you listed have roughly the same odds. Giants are 7 point favorites, Ravens are 7, Falcons are 8, Chiefs are actually 10.5
 
I think I would still roll with Baltimore, honestly. But one of those teams is probably going to lose, just hard to know which one.
 

tims4wins

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Would you consider SD at home vs. Pittsburgh? Pitt didn't look very good last week and I don't see their D stopping SD much.
 
Edit: and SD doesn't have many appealing remaining games. One @ Jax, one vs. Chicago.
 

glennhoffmania

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KC's best spots are the last two weeks of the season, and I'm not going to plan that far ahead with the way things have gone so far.  I like Atlanta in week 8 v. Tampa. I wouldn't touch SD this week.  They do have Oakland in week 7 and hopefully they'll be healthier by then.  I'm struggling between Atlanta and KC.  Atlanta is one Julio twisted ankle away from being mediocre.
 

JoePoulson

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I know CHI sucks, but I still don't understand how KC is almost a 10 point fave against the Bears.  Yea, KC is probably better, and has lost to "good" teams, but I don't remember the last time a 1-3 team was favored so heavily against another 1-3 team.  I'm staying far, far away from KC this week as I just don't like that game at all.
 
I went with GB and ATL this week with my two picks in my pool.
 

glennhoffmania

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That's reasonable but I think it's more about the Bears being really bad than KC being pretty good.  I think the same thing applies to the Giants and Ravens.  The Ravens spread seems most out of whack to me.  They look pretty bad and the Browns at least gave SD a decent game last week.
 

edmunddantes

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I've stopped worrying about teams to save for future value because you never know when an injury is going to throw you for a loop.

I'm going with Atl at home. I've already used Mia, Pit, NE, and SEa.
 

Reverend

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The thing is, you also gain more information about teams as the season progresses, so some picks should become more obvious once you reach that point in the season.

It's critical to get there, of course. ;)
 

semsox

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Going with the Giants, who have already gotten some losses out of the way. Undefeated teams that don't seem elite (looking at you Atlanta) get scarier and scarier as the year goes on.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I'm in the same boat. Two guys left in one pool, plus we started a revival pool for those that only got to play for 10 days in the first one. 
 
The first pool is my real decision. Used NYJ, Pitt, NE, Sea.  So I'm leaning toward taking Baltimore at home. They are a good home team, 85% as a home favorite, good in conference at home. Cleveland is a poor road team, especially as an underdog. I know I shouldn't look ahead, but next week is a mess and I could use Green Bay at home next week, otherwise I'd pick GB this week. Also thinking about KC at home or Atlanta. I don't trust the Giants yet.
 
This site is somewhat helpful
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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PaulinMyrBch said:
I'm in the same boat. Two guys left in one pool, plus we started a revival pool for those that only got to play for 10 days in the first one. 
 
The first pool is my real decision. Used NYJ, Pitt, NE, Sea.  So I'm leaning toward taking Baltimore at home. They are a good home team, 85% as a home favorite, good in conference at home. Cleveland is a poor road team, especially as an underdog. I know I shouldn't look ahead, but next week is a mess and I could use Green Bay at home next week, otherwise I'd pick GB this week. Also thinking about KC at home or Atlanta. I don't trust the Giants yet.
 
This site is somewhat helpful
 
I think I've demonstrated that I don't have a knack for survivor pools but I'd be careful with the Ravens here.  Their top 4 WRs are Kamar Aiken (UDFA on his third team), Marlon Brown (UDFA), Darren Waller (6th round rookie, although he is 6'6", 240, with 4.46 speed), and Chris Givens (traded for this week).  Steve Smith had more catches this season than all four of them combined. 
 
Assuming Joe Haden plays, the Ravens better be able to run against 8 in the box.  If they can't, they are going to be in for a long afternoon.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I've already switched it to Atlanta. Feeling better about them, but I'm going to study it a bit more before I leave it up. 
 
I think it's still debatable whether Atlanta is an elite team...but I think it's even more debatable whether Washington is a .500 team. And that is really the question you ought to be asking yourself if you're worried about picking the Falcons: is Kirk Cousins really going to win on the road against a pretty healthy team which was able to rest most of its starters for more than a quarter last week?
 
(That paragraph is probably an allergic reaction to this week's Simmons-Cousin Sal podcast - I was bemused to hear them question how good Atlanta is while blithely assuming that Washington is decent.)
 

PaulinMyrBch

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If I lose I've got no one to blame buy myself. I'll be guilty of looking ahead in a pool with 2 fucking people left. Didn't play GB and went with Atlanta. Fuck me. 
 
2:38 to go down 4, you're on a mission from God. Lets go Matty Ice. 
 

edmunddantes

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PaulinMyrBch said:
If I lose I've got no one to blame buy myself. I'll be guilty of looking ahead in a pool with 2 fucking people left. Didn't play GB and went with Atlanta. Fuck me. 
 
2:38 to go down 4, you're on a mission from God. Lets go Matty Ice. 
the number of points Atlanta has left on the board is absurd. Fumbles, interceptions, missed FGs, just horrible play.
 

edmunddantes

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Wow. So lucky for me. Guy that picked GB in our pool has to be pissed. 3-1 Atlanta. He would have had the money.
 

glennhoffmania

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I went with Atlanta and was very close to changing to KC.  I would've been really pissed if I switched at the last minute.