Week 6 Survivor

glennhoffmania

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This week seems brutal.  Denver @ Cleveland and NYJ v. Washington seem like the better picks so far.  I'm thinking about going with NE just because I hate every other game.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah Washington seems like one of these weird teams that is hard to pick right this year. They surprise me somehow every week.
 
Denver @ Cleveland is appealing, and with Cleveland coming off the emotional win against one of its rivals, could let down. It is hard to see McCown having too much success against that Denver D. That said Denver is due to lose one of these close games at some point.
 

edmunddantes

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I've used up Atl, Mia, NE, Pit, and Sea.
 
Only decent home game I've got is GB vs SD. 
 
You have to take it? Advance and move on. Don't get too cute. Worry about Week 7 if I get there. Right?
 

semsox

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I think GB is the move here. After this week, they have a bye, @Den, @Car, and then their next good matchup isn't until Week 10 vs. Detroit. Given the way these pools go, that seems like pretty good present value for them.
 

edmunddantes

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I just looked at the teams the other guys have used so far I'm pretty sure this is going to be 3 GBs vs 1 NE this week. 
 
After that, the pool is going to get interesting as most of the good teams have been used by everyone. 
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I'm just going to post this here rather than start a new thread. 
 
I'm 1/2 that survived Bloody Sunday. I've used, Jets, Steelers, Patriots, Atlanta, Seahawks, and GB. I'm leaning toward Cardinals this week hosting the Ravens. Anything else out there I should be focused on?
 

edmunddantes

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I've used Mia, Pit, NE, Sea, Atl, and GB.

I'm leaning towards the Chargers.

Stl scares me cause they (and Fisher) have a remarkable record for playing down to the competition.

I don't like Indy yet as I can't figure them out or NO who they are playing against.

Buffalo is an away game.

And Carolina is going up against a hard to pin down Phi team.
 

tims4wins

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Personally hard for me to trust the Cardinals after they lost to Pittsburgh's 3rd string QB. Maybe I am giving the Ravens too much credit but I could absolutely see them going to Arizona and winning.
 

Dan Murfman

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edmunddantes said:
I've used Mia, Pit, NE, Sea, Atl, and GB.

I'm leaning towards the Chargers.

Stl scares me cause they (and Fisher) have a remarkable record for playing down to the competition.

I don't like Indy yet as I can't figure them out or NO who they are playing against.

Buffalo is an away game.

And Carolina is going up against a hard to pin down Phi team.
Buffalo is a London game
 

semsox

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I'm going Cards this week. They're tough at home, and coming off a loss, I expect them to be properly motivated. Baltimore's season is done, and likely hasn't reached the portion where people are trying to impress for 2016.
 

JoePoulson

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Yea ARI for me this week as well.  BAL is complete garbage and is on the road.  ARI will be pissed about last week and should roll.
 

ipol

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In an effort to assure that those of us that suck at survivor pools have an equal voice, I'll weigh in with my support of Buffalo.
 

glennhoffmania

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I was all set to go with AZ as well but now I'm starting to wonder if Indy is a better play.  They looked good last week and NO sucks.
 

Freddy Linn

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Poulsonator said:
Yea ARI for me this week as well.  BAL is complete garbage and is on the road.  ARI will be pissed about last week and should roll.
 
Adding to this, the Ravens have also already traveled to Denver, Oakland, and SF, and are making another long haul out to Arizona.
 

tims4wins

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Freddy Linn said:
 
Adding to this, the Ravens have also already traveled to Denver, Oakland, and SF, and are making another long haul out to Arizona.
 
 
Interesting that the Ravens voted against spending the week on the west coast like they did between weeks 1 and 2. They are making back to back west coast trips instead. That has to take a toll. Add in their shaky D, Arizona's very good offense, mad Arizona team, Steve Smith being banged up, etc. etc., hard not to like Arizona here
 

tims4wins

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Jax is just so bad. Losses to TB and Houston, lost to Colts without Luck, weren't really competitive vs. Pats. Bills D line is going to eat them alive this week IMO.
 

Stitch01

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Bills are a fine pick too I think.  Only team Im really going to avoid this week is Arizona because it looks like they are by far the highest picked team and I don't think they are that much better than the other options.
 

mauf

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Stitch01 said:
Bills are a fine pick too I think.  Only team Im really going to avoid this week is Arizona because it looks like they are by far the highest picked team and I don't think they are that much better than the other options.
 
The W% at SurvivorGrid (which is based on Vegas money lines) is 77.3% for Arizona and 65.5% for Buffalo.
 
If you flip that and look at the odds of losing, it's 22.7% for Arizona and 34.4% for Buffalo -- so you're 50% more likely to get knocked out of your pool by picking the Bills than by picking the Cards.
 
The Cards are the heaviest favorite this week, and don't have another attractive home game until Week 14. I think they're the right pick for most folks this week.
 
If your pool has a decent number of folks left and you want to avoid the crowd pick, STL at home against the Browns is a solid option.
 

Stitch01

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SL is my pick, I like them more than Buffalo, but Buffalo seems defensible to me if you just want to be off Arizona for whatever reason.  FO had them as the 4th most likely team to win this week. 
 
On yahoo 40% of the field is on Arizona, 15% are on the Bills, 15% on Atlanta, only 4% on SL.  SurvivorGrid has SL as higher EV (NE is highest EV, which is counterintuitive, then Seattle which is a good pick but not available to me personally)  Im willing to take the extra risk of avoiding Arizona given those ownership levels given the pools Im in are already pretty beat up with 95%+ of people gone, but are big enough we aren't down to like 2 people.  Your point about schedule is certainly a valid point against that strategy though.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Thanks for the input. I'm sticking with Arizona. I like home teams that are favorites playing non-division opponents if I can find one this late. Baltimore traveling to the West Coast in back to back weeks just makes it sweeter. 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Just looking at Point differentials, the gap between AZ and BAL is the biggest of the week (107).  SEA v SF was just behind at 105.  One thing about BAL - I've never seen a team that can run and stop the run as well as BAL can be so bad.
 
Stitch01 said:
SL is my pick, I like them more than Buffalo, but Buffalo seems defensible to me if you just want to be off Arizona for whatever reason.  FO had them as the 4th most likely team to win this week. 
 
On yahoo 40% of the field is on Arizona, 15% are on the Bills, 15% on Atlanta, only 4% on SL.  SurvivorGrid has SL as higher EV (NE is highest EV, which is counterintuitive, then Seattle which is a good pick but not available to me personally)  Im willing to take the extra risk of avoiding Arizona given those ownership levels given the pools Im in are already pretty beat up with 95%+ of people gone, but are big enough we aren't down to like 2 people.  Your point about schedule is certainly a valid point against that strategy though.
I know you are all over STL but I just wanted to say that I think people underestimate how much talent CLE has.  They definitely have playmakers at the skill positions (Benjamin, Johnson, Barnidge, Crowell, etc.) and, as this article states, they may be able to move the ball against STL.
 
Plus, just by DVOA, they are pretty close:  STL ranked 17 (30th by offense; 7 by defense) and CLE 20 (23 by offense and 28 by defense).
 

glennhoffmania

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Just looking at Point differentials, the gap between AZ and BAL is the biggest of the week (107).  SEA v SF was just behind at 105.  One thing about BAL - I've never seen a team that can run and stop the run as well as BAL can be so bad.
 
 
I'm on board with AZ, but the point differentials have to be looked at in context.  BAL has played DEN, CIN and PIT.  AZ has played NO, CHI, SF and DET.  So the schedules are part of that huge disparity.
 
But a team that lost back to back games to CLE and SF can't be any good, and AZ is probably the safest bet in a bounce back game at home so I'm sticking with them.
 

bbc23

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After this week with Arizona and a couple back with the Falcons I've now advanced off two game-winning interceptions.  
 
For next week I had the Patriots written in a few weeks back but between the offensive line issues and the Dolphins resurgence (albeit vs crappy teams) I'm thinking St. Louis murdering Kaep is probably the better call.  Where are you guys at right now?
 

Stitch01

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My early thought is Atlanta, but might go KC in my bigger pool or Arizona. Kind of don't want to use the pats because they are sort of a free square next week vs Washington and that lets you save the bengals vs Houston for the week after
 

glennhoffmania

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Atlanta has started to look vulnerable.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a Tampa upset.  KC is an interesting choice.  Detroit looks terrible and Stafford is getting killed.  As of now I'm going with STL.  SF may not get the ball past midfield. 
 

bostonbeerbelly

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I have to choose two this week, have used Giants, Packers, Rams, and Cardinals.
 
Looking to choose 2 of the following - Pats, Chiefs, Falcons, or Panthers.
 
My original lineup for the next few weeks was as follows.
 
Week 8 - Falcons & Panthers
Week 9 - Bengals & Jets
Week 10 - Bronco's & Steelers
Week 11 - Pats & Seahawks
 
If I can use the Chiefs this week that will help keep one really good team available for a later week, but I am in the mindset of just focusing on getting through this week. 
 

bbc23

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My reasoning behind not taking Carolina would be that they're the clear (for me anyways) best option for week 11, at home vs Washington.  The only other strong option I see that week is Jets@Texans.  I feel pretty comfortable with wk8: sf@STL, wk9: was@NE, wk10, hou@CIN, wk11: was@CAR/NYJ@hou. 
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I hadn't looked forward that far.  I do have NEP, but I also have Cincy for week 9 (home vs. Cleveland) or the Jets, Pit in week 10 hosting Cleveland or Denver hosting KC, and using the Pats in week 11.
 
So it's really if I like Carolina now or in week 11 I guess.
 

mauf

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The Falcons, Rams and Pats have roughly the same odds of winning this week. The Pats are by far the least popular pick (presumably because most people used them earlier).
 
The Pats are an even bigger favorite next week (vs WAS), but there's an alternate pick (NYJ vs. JAX) that looks safer than either of this two bandwagon picks -- but everyone and their brother is going to jump on the Jets bandwagon next week. So you've got a tough call if you haven't burned NE.
 
The Falcons don't have another cupcake until Week 17, so if you've burned NE, I'd probably take ATL this week and save STL for Week 10 (vs CHI).
 

Deathofthebambino

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I still have two survivor pools that I'm alive in.
 
The first is double elimination and I'm the only one left with no losses (about 12 people left with one loss out of about 60 that started the pool).  I've used Atlanta, New England, etc. already. Right now, I'm fighting myself between Carolina vs. Indy, KC vs. Detroit, and against my golden rule, Arizona @ Cleveland.  What do you all think?
 
My other pool is triple elimination (if you finish with no losses, you split 60% of an over 100k pot, two losses is 25%, etc.), and you can use the same team over and over.  It's New England again, for like the 4th time in that pool.  I have one loss in that pool along with about 30% of the field, still about 5% with no losses, 
 

glennhoffmania

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Atlanta probably knocked a bunch of people out yesterday.  I wish I had the balls to pull the trigger on KC but I went safe and stuck with STL.  For next week, with the possibility of Bryce Petty starting at QB for the Jets I don't think they're a viable pick anymore.  It has to be CIN, right?  The problem is that everyone will probably be taking them so I'm trying to decide if there's a usable second team and then hope for a Browns' upset.  The Saints?
 

bostonbeerbelly

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I went completely against my original plan and picked Pats and KC. 1/4 of the pool knocked out with Falcons going down and another 1/4 could go down tonight if the colts pull off a win.
 
This week having to pick 2 again I am thinking some combination of the following - Bengals, Jets, Saints 
 

Deathofthebambino

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Big win for me with Carolina too (although I suppose I could have taken any of the three choices I talked about earlier, with Arizona and KC being my other two and they both won).  Going into this week, I was the only person in the pool without a loss out of the original 62, and I know I was the only one of the remaining 10 or so that took Carolina, so I'm hoping most of these assholes with one loss took Atlanta and are now done.  Haven't looked at next week yet, but I believe I still have Cincinatti available, so that's probably where I'm going.
 
In my triple elimination pool,  i have one loss, and I'll be taking the Pats.  Again. 
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Boring week, 2 players left, we both took Rams. 
 
I'm leaning New Orleans at home against Tennessee, Mariota is back, but Whisenhunt is out, so turmoil no the road. The other game would be Bengals at home against Cleveland. 
 
I've still got Bengals, Denver, Carolina unused and they all look to have good matchups the next 2-3 weeks, so it would be a good time to use the Saints. 
 

glennhoffmania

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I pretty much settled on CIN since even though they have a good matchup next week I think that's the best time to use PIT.  After that CIN doesn't have a great home matchup the rest of the season until week 17.  At SF should be fine though.  NO meanwhile has very good matchups at home weeks 15 and 16 if it gets that far.
 
But does the potential for thunder storms tonight affect the decision?  Losing because of shitty weather would really suck.
 

Jeff Frye's Face Mask

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PaulinMyrBch said:
Boring week, 2 players left, we both took Rams. 
 
I'm leaning New Orleans at home against Tennessee, Mariota is back, but Whisenhunt is out, so turmoil no the road. The other game would be Bengals at home against Cleveland. 
 
I've still got Bengals, Denver, Carolina unused and they all look to have good matchups the next 2-3 weeks, so it would be a good time to use the Saints. 
I'm in a similar spot. I've got the Saints, Pats, Bengals and Broncos all at my disposal still. My brain says to take the Pats this week but I can't stop looking at the Saints match-up and thinking about taking them instead.
 

tims4wins

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Saints now have home losses to TB and Tennessee and have single handedly probably wipe out 40% of all suicide entries. LOL.
 

glennhoffmania

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Yup. Thank god I stuck with CIN. Unfortunately part of my reasoning was to use PIT next week.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Thank you to the New Orleans Saints. Fucked me twice in both entries of the same pool. Week 2 and today. I'm adding a new rule to next year's survivor pick rules to live by. Don't pick a team with a shitty defense even in their QB threw for a gazillion TD's the week before.