I think you pretty much have to go Denver next week at home after this loss. KC might have spanked the Lions at home but I don't think Alex Smith is moving the ball on that D.
Week 6 Survivor
- Thread starter glennhoffmania
- Start date
I've been eliminated from both of my pools for a couple of weeks but the wife was still alive in both. So I basically don't say anything but Thursday I reminded her that there was a game tonight that she should look at. She told me her nephew was born in Cleveland and she couldn't pick against the Browns. I shake my head. She picked New Orleans on both after I recommended maybe picking 2 teams. Somehow this is my fault.
Frankly both those games have decent upset potential. Personally I'm leaning towards Philly at home over Miami tho that may not be an option for you.
I considered them too but I think I'd be less shocked if Miami won in a shoot out than if Carolina lost to Tennessee. I still don't know how they won in NO last week.
You've already taken the Rams?
Between PIT and CAR you have to go with CAR, even though I see them having a letdown after the big win last week. Would hope their defense comes to play.
Yeah, CIN, GB, NE, STL, DEN are out. CAR is the biggest favorite I have left, followed by PHI and PIT I think.
I was going to take Denver, but I'm worried about Peyton (in multiple ways). I've also got PIT available but similarly there's a QB issue.
I'm leaning towards the Ravens now . . . and Philly (or NEP) next week, but I can easily be convinced elsewhere.
I'm leaning towards the Ravens now . . . and Philly (or NEP) next week, but I can easily be convinced elsewhere.
This week seems like the beginning of the end for a lot of pools. A lot of people have been lock step the past few weeks, but now options are growing much less appealing. I'm glad I still have Cincy available
The Ravens with their secondary issues against a team with two productive WRs?
I'm pretty sure you can find a better play. What teams do you have left?
I had them, Denver, and Pittsburgh. And I never would have taken Pitt, w/Ben not starting.
It was fun while it lasted
It was fun while it lasted
I hadn't heard about the NFL apologizing to the Ravens for blowing the game until just a few minutes ago. Damn.
So the 11 people left in my pool this weekend all got knocked out (Green Bay, Cincy, Baltimore). The organizer is saying that everyone that got knocked out this week is back in (but can't use the team they used this weekend). Others are chirping and saying that everybody from the start should be allowed back in. How does it usualy work.
This is a pretty small pool that we re-started week 7 (Maybe 30 people at $20 a pop). So it's not like we're talking thousands of dollars on the line. But still interested in how it usually works.
This is a pretty small pool that we re-started week 7 (Maybe 30 people at $20 a pop). So it's not like we're talking thousands of dollars on the line. But still interested in how it usually works.
I don't see why people who were knocked out previously should be allowed back in. The point is everyone who got knocked out this weekend made it this far, which is more than can be said of the people knocked out previously. I would think of it more like an on-going tie-breaker rather than a re-start.
Cin, GB and Den losing knocked out 4 of the remaining 7 of my pool. 3 of us are left. I have no good options this week. Of the available teams, the ones that could possibly be options are Jax, Chi (crazy but I think they're in the discussion), NYJ- that may be it.
I've used GB, Mia, Sea, SD, Atl, NE, AZ, STL, Cin and Car. Any advice would be appreciated. The good news is the other 2 have also used NE, Sea, and Car, which seem to be the clear top 3 this week.
I've used GB, Mia, Sea, SD, Atl, NE, AZ, STL, Cin and Car. Any advice would be appreciated. The good news is the other 2 have also used NE, Sea, and Car, which seem to be the clear top 3 this week.
What about Philly? They're coming off of a bad loss and should be pissed, they are at home. Tampa isn't terrible and the game would probably be close, but I can't see picking a Thursday divisional game, a lousy Bears team coming off of a fluke win or the Jets on the road.
I agree you have some horrible options there.
I agree you have some horrible options there.
Yeah I should add Philly to the list. But with Sanchez starting I have very little faith in them.
I didn't see Den play last week. Are they at all competent with Osweiler? Their line sucks, they can't run the ball for shit, Sanders is banged up. I could see them struggling to score a point.
I didn't see Den play last week. Are they at all competent with Osweiler? Their line sucks, they can't run the ball for shit, Sanders is banged up. I could see them struggling to score a point.
Ugh, very tough spot. Vegas has Philly a 6 point favorite over Tampa. It's hard to trust the Eagles, and Winston is playing better, but you'd still have to favor Philadelphia at home over the Bucs. Tampa currently has the 24th ranked scoring offense (14th in yards) and the 26th ranked scoring defense (7th in yards). Philly, meanwhile, has the 14th ranked scoring offense (9th in yards) and the 9th ranked scoring defense (18th in yards).
EDIT: Ok you guys covered this while I was looking up the numbers. Sanchez would scare me too.
EDIT: Maybe Baltimore? StL is going with Keenum at QB, and he just isn't very good at all. The Ravens are better than their record indicates, and they're at home.
No consolation to my elimination last week, but pretty sure I would have been on Cincy or Denver this week.
My plan was to go Pit last week and Car this week, but switched at the last minute because of Ben. That sucked.
I don't think I can trust Bal against that defense. Vegas says take Philly. I'm kind of surprised that Den is almost a FG favorite.
I don't think I can trust Bal against that defense. Vegas says take Philly. I'm kind of surprised that Den is almost a FG favorite.
You can think of a reason to not go with any of the options you have available. Looks like you're going to have to take a risk on someone. Swallow hard, close your eyes, and make a very unpleasant selection.
FWIW, on the Rams' defense....home vs. road points allowed.
Home
vs Sea: 31
vs Pit: 12
vs Cle: 6
vs SF: 6
vs Chi: 37
AVG: 18.4
Road
at Was: 24
at Ari: 22
at GB: 24
at Min: 21
AVG: 22.8
I know those are better offensive teams, but still, a four and a half point difference on the road vs. at home.
Really, though, it's a complete guess at this point, right?
What about taking the Bears vs. Brock?
They are 4-2 in their last 6. D seems to be playing much better. Brock's first start. Etc.
They are 4-2 in their last 6. D seems to be playing much better. Brock's first start. Etc.
I like the Bears. They were in my initial top 3. Forte may be back but Langford looked pretty good. I really don't know anything about Brock though. This would be the first time ever I'd take a dog in a survivor pool.
Right, but why are they a dog? The only reason is because Denver is 7-2 and not say 5-4. If the Cleveland, or KC, or Oakland, or Baltimore (or a couple of those games) flipped the other way, Denver would be seen as a mediocre team heading in the wrong direction, while Chicago is ascending. I think the books have it wayyyyy wrong on this one.
Then again, Cutler could throw 3 picks and Denver could win like 16-10.
I know none of the options are any good, but man, putting my season in the hands of Jay Cutler, on the road against a very good defense, seems.....unwise.
Yeah no way I'd touch Chi in Den. Last I saw the line opened at 3 and has gone down to 2 or 2.5. Tim's explanation makes sense but still, people are giving points and taking Osweiler. Makes little sense to me.
Having watched a bnuch of Osweiler on Sunday, my opinion is his arm isn't much better than Peyton's at this point. He doesn't throw ducks, but he doesn't have a ton of zip on the ball either.
The 11 people have won. They can split the pool 11 ways or further agree among themselves to play for a different cut. Quite frankly, they could agree on any rules they wanted. The other players are out of luck because (as noted above) this is basically a runoff.
Baltimore lost to Keenum last year when he was with the Texans just FYI.
Also if you let them back in, the pool almost never end. As any time a wipe out occurs everyone gets back in.
The way I've always seen pools is that a total wipeout only restores the people still in the pool (barring a specific buy-back-in provision that usually has some limitation on it).
The way I've always seen pools is that a total wipeout only restores the people still in the pool (barring a specific buy-back-in provision that usually has some limitation on it).
Yeah, the pool runner just shut them down pretty quickly. It's obviously not fair to participants that have won up until this point to be pooled back in with people that were one and done.
Chicago is now a 1 point favorite. The market has spoken. I'm seriously considering taking them.
Both Min over GB and KC over SD seem better than CHI. Talib is back; that will make a difference.
A couple (other) things to keep in mind on Denver-Chicago:
- "Revenge" game for John Fox (this could be a detriment)
- More importantly, Fox knows the Broncos pretty well; better than the Broncos know the Bears
- "Revenge" game for John Fox (this could be a detriment)
- More importantly, Fox knows the Broncos pretty well; better than the Broncos know the Bears
Two of us took Philly and the third took Chicago. So I guess I get a third. I'm kind of bummed that it's over.