Agreed - the second analogy is more like being up 2 mini-breaks in a 10-point tie-breaker.
We're halfway through the season
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It’s the same reason the Yankee media will fall back on the loss column when they’re behind, as if those games they haven’t played are just guaranteed wins that the league hasn’t done them the honor of handing over yet. It’s bargaining. It has to be because of x, y, z out of their control, it can’t possibly be because they aren’t the best team.
Boston really benefited by running up the score against TB in all those April games before the Rays got their act together. NESN has been ridiculing TB all year because they traded Steven Souza or something, but that looked to me then like a pretty good roster, and it's only looked better since.
Yeah, thanks. This actually makes way more sense now--and also now that Al Zarilla reminded me to whom I was responding.
Enjoying the national past time as it was meant to be. Innovative. Jarring... But there might be something to it.
I was thinking the same thing while watching the Rays game today. Aside from ownership, the rest of the front office knows what they are doing. They got rid of Longoria at the right time, and made great deals for Eovaldi and Ramos.
And Kevin Cash is a boss. He has been masterful managing the pen.
They have the Sox much higher on that front (18%) than BP (10%) and Fangraphs (13.5%). I wonder how that's happening.
They each give 100% to make the playoffs (or near enough). They each give similar odds to win the division, so it's not about being in the coin flip game.
It's about their estimate of the Sox's strength. 538 rates the Sox as the best team going forward (essentially a 3 way tie with HOU/NYY), BP rates them as 4th (behind HOU/NYY, essentially tied with CLE), and Fangraphs rates them as 5th (meaningfully behind HOU/NYY/CLE, also behind LAD). You can see it in the number of wins each projects, 108, 105 and 106, respectively.
538's ELO is definitely relying more on current season results than the other two systems are - if not entirely on current season results at this point.
They each give 100% to make the playoffs (or near enough). They each give similar odds to win the division, so it's not about being in the coin flip game.
It's about their estimate of the Sox's strength. 538 rates the Sox as the best team going forward (essentially a 3 way tie with HOU/NYY), BP rates them as 4th (behind HOU/NYY, essentially tied with CLE), and Fangraphs rates them as 5th (meaningfully behind HOU/NYY/CLE, also behind LAD). You can see it in the number of wins each projects, 108, 105 and 106, respectively.
538's ELO is definitely relying more on current season results than the other two systems are - if not entirely on current season results at this point.
I really have to question how 538 is computing this. Can we all agree that the big advantage Houston has over both BOS and NY is the 50+% chance that those two will have to play each other in the division series? And those three teams are rated the three best according to 538's ELO rankings. In the meantime, Houston gets probable-90-game winner Cleveland.
Looking closer at their rankings I am even more suspicious. The top 7 ranked teams exactly match in order the top 7 teams with the highest chances of winning the WS, as though each has an equally hard path to the WS trophy. It's as if they are simulating out the regular season using their ELO numbers, but then NOT simulating the playoffs but only using the rating in some context-free way. Strange.
EDIT: And this is taking 538's rankings at face value, which there might be concerns about as SPS noted above
Or....the Rays didn't get their act together in April because they were playing Boston. It's the baseball equivalent of the chicken or the egg.
You're right, of course.
But we came a Joe Kelly meltdown away from sweeping the first two series against them, and they've been well over .500 since the second half of April — or, expressed differently, they've fought back to .500 after falling into a 4-13 hole.
(Of course, they've just lost consecutive games to the Orioles, so who knows...)
Put simply, that advantage is all but certain* to be given to the team that finishes with the best overall record, a race that Boston currently enjoys a 7 game lead over Houston and likely 4 to 5 games over NYY. If the Red Sox or Yankees finish ahead of the Astros, Houston will be pushed into that 2 vs. 3 ALDS matchup with the AL East runner-up.
(* all but certain since neither the Indians or the second wild-card team is likely to finish ahead of BOS, NYY or HOU).
It's not that they play each other, it's that one of them has to win a 1 game playoff to get to that stage of the playoffs.
https://www.thoughtco.com/how-mlb-playoffs-work-321331
The team with the top record in the league plays the winner of the WC matchup in the division series. So if Boston finishes with the top record, and NY wins the WC game, Boston gets NY and Hou gets Cle.
So how much of an advantage is it for the Sox to finish with the best overall record while NY plays in the WC game, if they likely will have to play the Yankees in the division series?
I still want that first place overall, for in it comes the guarantee of not having to play in the WC game. But it wouldn't set Boston up against Cleveland, I don't think.
The Red Sox just passed Houston in run differential, now lead the majors at +178.
That's good, right?
That's good, right?
Yeah, in the middle of some injuries and a slump. I wouldn't worry too much if I were them though, Seattle is a mirage. I can't put a lot of faith in a team that's 20 games over .500 with a -1 differential...if anything in baseball is unsustainable, that's it.
You're all just assuming the MFY win the WC game. Anything can happen in one game. The Sox could end up facing the A's in the DS, which is a much better outcome than facing the Indians.
Additionally, whichever team wins the WC would be down a good starting pitcher.
Not necessarily. There's good reason to think the Yankees will treat it like a bullpen game. I think they'd be happy to do something like...
Severino - 2 IP
Green - 2 IP
Robertson - 2 IP
Britton - 1 IP
Betances - 1 IP
Chapman - 1 IP
...which lines up Severino for starts in ALDS Games 2 and 5.
I think that would represent a step forward in strategy, and I'd like to see teams do that kind of thing, but I doubt they would do so absent Severino blowing up (like last year).
I understand your logic, but unless they have been doing this during the season, I do not see the Yankees (or the Sox or any team in that situation) committing to such a wild change in strategy for a one game wildcard playoff.
They will use a starter and try to get 6-7 innings from him as always.
I'd actually do the bullpen thing in a wild card game, but with CC going one time through the order to start. I have no idea if NY would actually do this or not.
Keep in mind since it's a single game 'series', you don't have to put most of your SPs on the roster, so NY could put maybe 10-11 relievers on the team if they wanted.
Keep in mind since it's a single game 'series', you don't have to put most of your SPs on the roster, so NY could put maybe 10-11 relievers on the team if they wanted.
A lot of it should depend on how that final BOS/NYY series goes, and whether they're playing for anything.
I can't say that I see your evidence for a team's bullpen usage in the postseason mirroring the regular season, especially in the modern era. The Yankees have an historically good pen for a reason.
Why is there "good reason" to think they'd do something they haven't done all year? I'm not doubting you, just wondering why you think that.
My reasoning is very cynical.
Unless they are in a strong position (like BB with the Patriots) professional coaches tend to be incredibly risk-averse. And in a one-game playoff after a great season, this will be accentuated. Because the last thing Boone will want is to be vulnerable to the media/fans saying that he tried a “reckless strategic shift instead of staying with what worked all year long.”
Of course, this same risk-aversion also causes managers to have an early hook in the postseason, which can lead to an outcome very similar to a bullpen game. The key difference is there’s no way that Boone starts the game saying he’s pulling his starter after two no matter how well he’s pitching. If he does that and they lose, he’ll be roasted. For good reason.
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They basically bullpenned last year's Wild Card game (admittedly by necessity after Severino was terrible in the 1st) and they have a deeper pen this year. I don't think whether they've done it this season or not matters, a one game winner take all situation is different, but again I don't know if they'd actually do it.
1. The 2018 Yankees are probably the best bullpen in history.
2. Assuming he's not hurt and is still their ace in October, not burning Severino in a Wild Card game makes their ALDS rotation a lot better (starting Severino twice instead of Sabathia/Tanaka twice).
3. There's more rest built into the postseason than the regular season.
I mean, I have no idea what they'll do. But I'd probably do that if I were Boone.
I agree, add in that both Severino and Tanaka have started wild card games in the past three seasons and neither has done especially well. CC one time through the order, then give it to the pen.
What would they have done if Severino was lights out at the start of the game? They leave him in, right?
I can see the risk-aversion argument. OTOH, it could flow in the other direction too — Why would you start Severino in a Wild Card game when he had an 81.00 ERA in last year's game? (To use the logic of the New York Post.)
Yes, but given what happened in that game plus NY's pen being even deeper this year, I think it's a much stronger consideration, and also CC showed last postseason how good he can be for 3-4 innings.
What I'm suggesting wouldn't be so different from what they actually did in game 5 of the ALDS against CLE, which was another single game winner-take-all situation.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201710110.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201710110.shtml
I think this is good reason to think it's a good idea. I am disputing that there is good reason to think the Yankees will act on it.
It's pretty different - they waited until he gave up 4 singles in a row in the 5th to pull him. They managed that the same way most teams are managing their postseason games these days - quick hook on a non-elite starter and leaning on your best relievers.
But they had already ridden their bullpen pretty hard at that point too, so they only used two relievers to get through 4.2 innings. Pulling CC after 9 batters instead of 18 isn't a massive jump, especially with a deep and pretty well-rested pen.
It would take a big, brass set for Boone to do this IMO. Hell get killed if he pulls an effective Severino after 2 because he’s looking ahead to a DS game 5 and they lose the play in. Even if he survives it, it’ll dog him forever.
I guess there's a couple different scenarios. Are they in contention for the division going into the last weekend? If so, the starter will be determined by how the rotation shakes out - if that's CC, they're more likely to do some version of heavy reliance on the bullpen.
Are they locked into the WC slot by then? If so, won't they just line up Severino for the WC game and play it straight?
They might, I'm just saying I'm not sure I would. It also depends how their pitchers match up specifically against the team they'd be playing, though.
Bumping this because I appreciate and am thankful for what DD has done.
Watching him and Cashman work this deadline is a treat. Worthy competitors.
And yes — 2/3 comps would be interesting. Is this as good as it ever was?
On pace to win 112 games. Best run differential. Most runs scored. Second fewest allowed. Two legit MVP candidates. Young guys playing well. Adding quality veterans to the mix. Sale is dominant. Price coming into form. Injuries are an issue but they're working through them.
Incredible performance 2/3 of the way through the season. I won't say that if they don't win the World Series it'll be a disappointment or a "failure" because we all know how hard it is to get that done, and there are VERY worthy competitors to have to go through. and baseball is baseball.
But man this team is just crushing it in every way right now. It's unbelievable to watch.
Incredible performance 2/3 of the way through the season. I won't say that if they don't win the World Series it'll be a disappointment or a "failure" because we all know how hard it is to get that done, and there are VERY worthy competitors to have to go through. and baseball is baseball.
But man this team is just crushing it in every way right now. It's unbelievable to watch.
What I like best about the team is the completeness. There isn't a glaring hole, really, anywhere. They have a winning record in just about any split besides games where they scored fewer runs than the opponent. And they've done it consistently since spring training. They can beat a team in all kinds of different ways, and that, IMO, is the secret sauce formula for the playoffs.
That may be, but fairly or not Boone will be the face of those moves, just as Kevin Cash is getting credit in Tampa for all the part juggling working out despite it being clear the FO has been heavily involved in a lot of those decisions as well.
If they try that on the field and fail, the one getting destroyed in the papers will be Boone.
This is really the key. I don't know if they're the "best" team in the league, but they are clearly the most balanced. The Yankees have an iffy rotation, the Indians have a dumpster-fire bullpen, and the Astros lineup has massively underperfomed compared to last year. Whereas the Sox are at or near the top in all three categories, with plus defense all over the field (especially with Kinsler). This is a solid, solid team.