We're Onto the NFL Draft (2019 Prospect Thread)

[SMU_Sox]

This will be the thread to discuss prospects. In general the class is loaded at WR and TE. DL and edge have some depth too. Not a good class for LBs minus the top few guys and even then the ceilings are not as high as last year. I expect to see a WR, TE, DL, and Edge drafted.

I have started looking at guys more in depth and doing 3-4 game mini-dives.

I'll be looking at tight ends first.

First guy is TJ Hockenson from Iowa. I have been following this guy since mid-season and couldn't wait to take more time and get into his tape. It didn't disappoint.

You can see him vs Wisconsin here. vs Penn State here. vs Miss State here.

I'll try and organize these better into traits but for now let me start with some general observations. Hockenson is a true 2-way threat in that he can block, line up anywhere, and is a terrific receiver. It's rare to see such a complete TE prospect with his athleticism these days.

He generally blocks well and has a good punch. He blocks well on the second level but can also struggle with blocking in space. He takes poor blocking angles occasionally and struggled against better competition on the line of scrimmage in his game against Miss State. He won his fair share of battles against DLinemen which is impressive in and of itself. He has a high ceiling as a blocker.
He catches the ball well using his hands and then bringing it in and securing it. Didn't run a ton of routes but ran them well and has good lateral ability on out routes. His winddown on comebacks is efficient and quick which is impressive for a man of his size. He gets separation in his routes even against DBs. He is a downfield threat and can work the seam. He can clear out a zone and often attracts multiple bodies in coverage. Oh, he also hurdled a guy for a first down. He's going to test well.
He has great balance through contact and is hard to bring down. He also can be lined up almost anywhere. He reminds me a lot of Kelce coming out.

I've been doing this for 3 years now. I haven't seen a guy with this much blocking and receiving ability in that time. In other words he is the most complete TE prospect I have reviewed.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Thanks in advance SMU... always learn a bunch from your write-ups. I don’t expect to have a lot to contribute here aside from questions, but am always grateful to SoSH for our collection of experts.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I see a lot of sites mocking Hockenson to the Patriots at 32. But he seems like he's just too clean of a prospect to last that long, a guy you'll go into the draft excited about and then he gets taken at #18.

 

[edoug]

Yeah reading his reading various scouting reports on him, he's going to be long gone by the Pats pick. Would you trade a 1st and 3rd round pick for him? That's roughly what it would cost them to get Cleveland's pick.
If you believe the draft trade chart.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

[Mooch]

One guy I absolutely love who might be a day 2 or 3 steal is Antoine Wesley from Texas Tech. 6’5 guy who runs great routes and wins contested balls consistently. Only knock is that he’s not very fast but he plays with excellent control and his hands are outstanding. He’s also pretty dangerous after the catch.

 

[Saints Rest]

Yeah reading his reading various scouting reports on him, he's going to be long gone by the Pats pick. Would you trade a 1st and 3rd round pick for him? That's roughly what it would cost them to get Cleveland's pick.
If you believe the draft trade chart.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

That’s basically the chart that Jimmy Johnson (I think he was the one) made famous.
I really don’t think it applies anymore because of the way the CBA has changed contracts for top picks as well as the huge difference between pick 32 and 33 from a contract POV.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I’m going to do Fant and Hock anyway even if they go earlier. Hayden Hurst went in the first round last year. Hock makes him look like a practice squad guy. I kid but not by that much. My next 4-5 guys I am looking at are Irv Smith jr., Dawson Knox, Isaac Nauta, Dax Raymond, and then maybe Jace Sternberger. Initial impressions were positive for all of these guys so going back and zooming in.

 

[tims4wins]

I see a lot of sites mocking Hockenson to the Patriots at 32. But he seems like he's just too clean of a prospect to last that long, a guy you'll go into the draft excited about and then he gets taken at #18.

On cue, McShay has him going 19 to he Titans in his first mock

Edit: FWIW (not much especially on Feb 9), McShay has Gerald Willis III, DT, Miami (FL) to the Pats at 32. He also mentions Fant as a possibility.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Last year the first guy I got really jazzed up for in the skill position department was Sony Michel IIRC. This year it was Hock. So, you know, hopefully some magic happens

 

[tims4wins]

Gronk followed by Hock seems too perfect

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

On cue, McShay has him going 19 to he Titans in his first mock

Edit: FWIW (not much especially on Feb 9), McShay has Gerald Willis III, DT, Miami (FL) to the Pats at 32. He also mentions Fant as a possibility.

Daniel Jeremiah has Hockenson going to the Lions at 8. So his stock continues to rise.
Jeremiah also has Fant going 30 to the Packers. Hockenson and Fant are both from Iowa. That would have to be a first for the first two TE off the board from the same school.

PICK 30

Noah Fant - TE
School: Iowa | Year: Junior
Fant is an athletic freak and would be a nice complement to the young WR corps in Green Bay.Jimmy Graham isn't the long-term answer at the position.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Next up for me was Dawson Knox. I read about him mid-season. He is a former QB with only 2 full years at the position. He played for Ole Miss and while his overall production does not stand out he is a worthy day 2 pick with tremendous upside at TE.

Vs Texas Tech here. Vs Mississippi State here. Vs Alabama here.

Let's get the obvious out of the way. He's raw and pretty much everything he does needs refinement. He has natural ability as a blocker but he's inconsistent. He can land a first punch but his footwork after that gets him tossed. He offers you positional flexibility. You can line him up in multiple places as a route runner or blocker. He is athletic and fast and he can beat LBs and some corners and safeties. He didn't get a lot of targets and only ran 3-5 routes. Ole Miss has a predictive offense which is going to make life harder for him. By his 3rd game I could routinely predict what he was going to do by where he was lined up and the down so there are mitigating factors when I say he could sell his routes better. If the defender knows you are running an out route at the sticks he's going to defend it. I think his change of direction is fine but not as smooth, efficient, and clean as Hockenson for example.
He had a couple of drops on non-routine catches and usually has good hands. I saw maybe 1 contested catch total here as he is usually open and separated when he gets the ball. Another factor that differentiates him from Hockenson is that he had few if any YAC moments. He was brought down right after the catch most times so not much to evaluate on YAC and vision.

Knox to me is a day 2 guy because with his traits his ceiling is high. If they do double-tip on TE's Knox would be the eventual Gronk replacement. I'd have low expectations year 1 but by year 3 expect a 3-down TE type.

Quick edit: It might be overkill to do a guy like Fant AND Knox but they are complimentary TEs. Another note - technically Knox is listed as bigger than Hock and could put on a bit more on his frame.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Last year the first guy I got really jazzed up for in the skill position department was Sony Michel IIRC. This year it was Hock. So, you know, hopefully some magic happens

From your lips to God's ears. And I'd love to read your thoughts on Hock no matter where he goes.

Any chance of adding Trevon Wesco to your list? I've heard some buzz about him as a mid-round sleeper and he definitely has a Patriots-type feel as a guy who lines up in different places and can really bring it as a blocker.

 

[SMU_Sox]

From your lips to God's ears. And I'd love to read your thoughts on Hock no matter where he goes.

Any chance of adding Trevon Wesco to your list? I've heard some buzz about him as a mid-round sleeper and he definitely has a Patriots-type feel as a guy who lines up in different places and can really bring it as an inline blocker.

Would be my pleasure. I believe I’ve read limited but positive things about him from the Draft Network but I don’t even remember seeing him this year. Always the caveat that I need to be able to find his tape.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Would be my pleasure. I believe I’ve read limited but positive things about him from the Draft Network but I don’t even remember seeing him this year. Always the caveat that I need to be able to find his tape.

Awesome. Thanks!

 

[Ale Xander]

This will be the thread to discuss prospects. In general the class is loaded at WR and TE. DL and edge have some depth too. Not a good class for LBs minus the top few guys and even then the ceilings are not as high as last year. I expect to see a WR, TE, DL, and Edge drafted.

I have started looking at guys more in depth and doing 3-4 game mini-dives.

I'll be looking at tight ends first.

First guy is TJ Hockenson from Iowa. I have been following this guy since mid-season and couldn't wait to take more time and get into his tape. It didn't disappoint.

You can see him vs Wisconsin here. vs Penn State here. vs Miss State here.

I'll try and organize these better into traits but for now let me start with some general observations. Hockenson is a true 2-way threat in that he can block, line up anywhere, and is a terrific receiver. It's rare to see such a complete TE prospect with his athleticism these days.

He generally blocks well and has a good punch. He blocks well on the second level but can also struggle with blocking in space. He takes poor blocking angles occasionally and struggled against better competition on the line of scrimmage in his game against Miss State. He won his fair share of battles against DLinemen which is impressive in and of itself. He has a high ceiling as a blocker.
He catches the ball well using his hands and then bringing it in and securing it. Didn't run a ton of routes but ran them well and has good lateral ability on out routes. His winddown on comebacks is efficient and quick which is impressive for a man of his size. He gets separation in his routes even against DBs. He is a downfield threat and can work the seam. He can clear out a zone and often attracts multiple bodies in coverage. Oh, he also hurdled a guy for a first down. He's going to test well.
He has great balance through contact and is hard to bring down. He also can be lined up almost anywhere. He reminds me a lot of Kelce coming out.

I've been doing this for 3 years now. I haven't seen a guy with this much blocking and receiving ability in that time. In other words he is the most complete TE prospect I have reviewed.

When you say loaded with WR's, do you mean the mid rounds? I've only seen 2 or 3 WR's projected to go in the first round.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I could only find one game for Isaac Nauta so far so so I will pass on him. I only found 2 on Irv Smith Jr. but he was so consistent in both that I feel like I have a handle for him.

This is him vs Clemson in the Championship game. This is him vs Auburn.

Irv Smith Jr. from Bama is a mauler is a blocker. Of the four guys I have looked at so far Smith Jr. is the best blocker. He can take on edges, DLs, LBs, DBs, whatever he faces. He can block in space well too. He can be a lead blocker too - very solid there. He's a good route runner and he has a lot of subtle natural moves. He deeked a safety out of his shoes against Clemson. He isn't particularly fast and won't get much separation from pure athleticism. If you compare his change of direction compared to Hock and Knox you will see he has significant more winddown time and changes direction less easily. He is not going to be a huge YAC guy but he has above average vision. He also has good hands.

Irv Smith Jr. has a high floor because of his blocking. His ceiling as a receiver will depend somewhat on his athleticism which looks ok vertically but I am not sure he will have a great 3-cone for example. Some players play smart - they read running lanes and blocks well, engage defenders and clear them out of the second level, and run routes well. Smith Jr. even worked well with Tua when a play broke down (either that or it was designed that was and he executed it perfectly against Clemson).

I am not one for comps but he would take over the Dwayne Allen/Izzo TE 2 spots with more slightly more upside as a receiver.

 

[Super Nomario]

Did you watch Izzo, @SMU_Sox ? I haven't but the ITP Draft Guide guys kinda liked him, especially as a blocker. I'm just wondering based on your writeup if drafting a guy like Smith who's a little better version of that doesn't really move the needle that much.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@Super Nomario I watched him last year, yes, but post-draft. I do think he is a better route runner and receiver than Izzo. He might even be a better blocker. But you probably have to draft him on day 2. As much as I like Smith's route running and moves given Izzo's cost and skill set I would invest the pick elsewhere. Like you said, the needle isn't really moving a ton here.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Noah Fant, TE, Iowa.

You can watch him vs Penn State here, vs Iowa State here, and vs Ohio State 2017 here.

Fant is an explosively athletic route runner who has good hands and vision.

He has run a diverse set of routes all over the field and he runs them well. He has natural moves, jukes, deeks, and his lateral cuts are ridiculous. I saw him have some issues with his winddown on comebacks and hitches but I think that's fixable and it got better later in 2018. He runs routes intelligently. If his route breaks near the sticks he makes sure that he gets the first down. He gets separation from his route running.
He can also get separation with pure athleticism. He's faster than linebackers and routinely burned safeties. He can can YAC it up too when making a catch in space. Another strength will be positional flexibility because he can line up almost everywhere. The caveat to that is that...
He's not the best blocker and that's being charitable. He's not even that great against DBs in space when he has 30+ pounds on them. I saw him get better at being physical when a corner is stuck to him but in general that part of his game is a negative. He is only around 230 pounds so he's a bit light for the typical BB TE.

I like Fant a lot because for his size, speed, and route running he is a monster and that more than overcomes for his weaknesses.

If we're going former comps Fant is much closer to a Sweatleaf type. If the Patriots stick with a run heavy approach for a few years how well does he fit value wise compared to a more well-rounded TE if they have to take him at 32?

 

[SMU_Sox]

It's time for Jace Sternberger, tight end, out of the cult Texas A&M.

You can see him vs Kentucky here. You can see him vs Ole Miss here.

Let's start with what Jace does well. He's super athletic and fast. He's more or less around Knox's level of speed but below Fant and faster than Irv Smith jr. He makes great contested catches. He has superior vision when he gets the ball and is a YAC monster. He has run a variety of routes and can line-up anywhere. We're talking highlight reel catches and runs after catch. But he has some major areas of weakness.

He is an average blocker but he has poor technique and leverage and gets by with athleticism and balance. Still, he ends up on his ass a lot and he's blown quite a few plays directly from his in-line blocking. And then what's worse is he can't block in space to save his life. He takes these stupid non-sense angles and is so out of place he can't use any technique worth a damn. He seems light in the lower half maybe too.

He is not a good route runner. He has no natural moves. He telegraphs his breaks which result in him NEEDING to make those contested catches and he should get more separation from his natural gifts. He also has quite a bit of winddown with his breaks which is surprising for how natural an athlete he is. He needs a lot of refinement in this department. He also seriously struggles with separation from contact and unlike others who know where and how to attack zone coverage he runs into it like a trap. He just lacks a lot of mental awareness to the details and that concerns me a bit. For our offense, which depends on timing and anticipation, I wonder how much of a struggle Jace will have.

If you can coach him up the skies the limit in terms of his ceiling given his athletic gifts, contested catch ability, and vision and YAC as a receiver with the ball. But he has a long way to go to be a traditional TE. I'd want a team to use him as a weapon in space and simplify things for him in year 1. By year 3, maybe 4, Jace has the ability to be a pro-bowl caliber player but comes with a significant amount of risk.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I didn't like Knox or Nauta in the couple of games I watched. Neither one took a single snap at the Y, it was either H-Back or flexed out. When blocking at H-Back, they were both lungers, or wall-off blockers. They both have the size to potentially block at the NFL level, but they're both pretty far off from what I saw. I don't think either one plays the violent, physical style that the Patriots ask. Not to say they can't, just that they haven't shown it.

To me, Caleb Wilson is the undervalued TE here. He played some Y and held his own. He catches well, but he's a little more maxed out physically than Knox & Nauta.

Foster Moreau plays the way the Patriots want a TE to play (exceptional blocker, physical) but athletically, he might not be there. The combine will be big for him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Evan Lazar is a great follow. Currently he is doing tweet threads on draft prospects. One I really like is West Virginia WR David Sills.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@EL Jeffe my list: currently doing Kaden Smith. He's the first guy where my eval of him is different from most others. I think the reason is I found his 2-3 best games. Currently watching the ND game because apparently he struggled there. I might end up being higher on Kaden though then others.

My list of TE's after Kaden Smith to look at: Dax Raymond, Isaac Nauta (when I get more tape), Zach Gentry, Jerome Washington, Foster Moreau, Trevon Wesco, Alize Mack, and Caleb Wilson.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Anyone have a look at Tony Pollard from Memphis? I haven't looked at much film yet, but he seems like a Patriot.

He's got a lot of experience as a RB/WR/Special Teams player. If they're looking for a swiss army knife, he's a good fit in the middle rounds. He's got 7 kick return TD's in his college career and was on kick/punt coverage. He can line up in the slot or in the backfield, and catches the ball well from what I've seen. He's quick and shifty, making it really difficult for LB's to cover him. Runs well between the tackles, esp. for his size. Drawbacks I've read about indicate route running is an issue, but he doesn't have a ton of experience as a WR, so that's to be somewhat expected. He's a former high school CB, so I would hope he would improve here with more time playing as a receiver.

 

[EL Jeffe]

@EL Jeffe my list: currently doing Kaden Smith. He's the first guy where my eval of him is different from most others. I think the reason is I found his 2-3 best games. Currently watching the ND game because apparently he struggled there. I might end up being higher on Kaden though then others.

My list of TE's after Kaden Smith to look at: Dax Raymond, Isaac Nauta (when I get more tape), Zach Gentry, Jerome Washington, Foster Moreau, Trevon Wesco, Alize Mack, and Caleb Wilson.

I was disappointed in Mack, because I'd heard good things. He played a good amount of Y, but he wasn't physical or aggressive. I only caught one game of Kaden Smith and liked what I saw. He blocked well, long, caught it cleanly. He didn't seem to have the 2nd gear of Irv Smith though. I really like Irv Smith a ton and would definitely be happy with him at #32.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Brad Kelly was on the Locked on Patriots pod today and said because of Irv Smith jr.'s route running and vertical ability, good hands, etc. he would be a huge upgrade over Izzo/Allen. That makes sense. I want to see his 3-cone, 40, and splits though. The way I frame it after listening to Brad is Allen and Izzo (in theory) offer you little to nothing as receivers but Smith Jr. profiles at least above average there. Maybe that actually does move the needle. I think I might be short-selling that upgrade.
But, according to Brad he would cost pick #32 and won't be there at 56. That's where you might lose me. TE class is so deep. If it happens the guy has a huge floor and he really is exceptional as a blocker with nice route running so it would be a bit of a safe pick. Kind of reminds me of a Mankins type pick. High floor with a chance for exceptional ceiling. It's also way too early to start sweating that kind of stuff.

 

[Super Nomario]

Brad Kelly was on the Locked on Patriots pod today and said because of Irv Smith jr.'s route running and vertical ability, good hands, etc. he would be a huge upgrade over Izzo/Allen. That makes sense. I want to see his 3-cone, 40, and splits though. The way I frame it after listening to Brad is Allen and Izzo (in theory) offer you little to nothing as receivers but Smith Jr. profiles at least above average there. Maybe that actually does move the needle. I think I might be short-selling that upgrade.
But, according to Brad he would cost pick #32 and won't be there at 56. That's where you might lose me. TE class is so deep. If it happens the guy has a huge floor and he really is exceptional as a blocker with nice route running so it would be a bit of a safe pick. Kind of reminds me of a Mankins type pick. High floor with a chance for exceptional ceiling. It's also way too early to start sweating that kind of stuff.

They have enough picks to trade up from 56 to 46 or whatever to get Smith, if he's their guy. They could also trade back from 32 into the 40s.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Kaden Smith, Tight End, Stanford

You can see him vs USC here. You can see him vs Oregon here. This is the condensed version of Stanford Notre Dame but it is 39 minutes long and you won't have 82 marked.

Kaden Smith is another plus athlete with a trump card but his inconsistencies in a multitude of key areas are going to be red flags.

Smith has a trump card. He is a great contested catcher. He has good hands. I want to see his testing because I know guys on the Draft Network are down on his athleticism but I think he is a plus athlete maybe around Irv Smith jr.'s level or better. Look at his vertical extension against USC around 3:02. He's savvy about getting the first down too. He converted a 3rd and 23 by catching and angling his catch and fall to power through guys for the first down. He is savvy about YAC and fights through tackles displaying balance through contact. He doesn't get a ton of opportunities to show off his YAC but he has good vision and is an asset in space with the ball.

Kaden Smith reminds me of Courtland Sutton in some ways regarding his lateral breaks. Smith has plays where he makes one step, two steps and he's accelerating into his out route. Check out his Oregon tape around 1:16ish. This is a smooth break guys. We're talking a Noah Fant level break in terms of step efficiency (Fant is in a league of his own speed wise imo). He will have a highlight kind of break out of his route for other breaks as well. The problem is, like Sutton last year, that often was not the case. I think the problem might be with his footwork which is often sloppy (especially if there is contact involved).

Another issue for him is blocking. He had some good moments on his USC tape blocking. He had a lot of lowlights though against Oregon and Notre Dame. He gets pushed around. Doesn't have much of an anchor which is surprising given his stature. He took good blocking angles blocking in space but the results aren't there. He even lost quite a few times with a good punch and leverage. He has some mean streak to him as a blocker but that's inconsistent as well. That's the pattern with him, inconsistency with flashes of brilliance. I don't think I saw him ever in pass protection.

His route running was average on the whole with some truly bad footwork. He has moves but he doesn't use them with any desirable frequency and he needs to sell his routes more (check out the play before 2:30 against Oregon). He has a glaring weakness. He can't get off contact and gets redirected way too easily. Again, surprising given his stature. He also has had mixed success using corners leverage and positioning against them. Too many times he breaks at the wrong position against the DB and then because he can't fight through that contact and now the DB is in the way he can't successfully make his break with any separation. And then the next play he'll find the soft spot in the zone and squat there for the first down. It was like that watching him play to play. Another point in favor of Smith and that demonstrates his speed: when he gets a clean release he can build up a head of steam and attack vertically.

Year 1 Smith is a red zone and third down target (not that the Patriots targeted TEs in the red zone last year but that's a different conversation and maybe just an anomaly). I am not sure if he is a late day 2 or mid day 3 pick. He has the traits to be a contributor as a receiver. But the magnitude of that is largely going to depend on his athletic testing with a range of commentary and speculation there. His mediocre blocking and lack of experience in pass pro (combined with the other inconsistencies) makes me wonder if he is not the right fit for this team.

quick edit: It is onto Dax Raymond. Heard he is a stud. I like studs.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Before I give you my report on Dax Raymond, tight end Utah State, let me tentatively rank the tight ends and a quick top X estimation on where I see them.

1. TJ Hockenson Top 20
2. Noah Fant Top 30
3. Irv Smith jr. Top 40
4. Dawson Knox Top 75
5. Dax Raymond Top 75
6. Jace Sternberger wait for testing but early to mid day 3 (outside top 100)
7. Kalen Smith wait for testing but early to mid day 3

Quick edit: Last year I had one guy I liked in the early 1st/2nd, Dallas Goedert. This year it is so much better.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Dax Raymond, Tight End, Utah State. SoSH deleted my draft so this is a bit choppy.

Watch him here vs Michigan State, and here vs San Jose State.

He's not a gadget player but what a fun eval.
Raymond's trump cards are his ability to make quick cuts either laterally or getting up the field. His speed and athleticism are all over the tape.
I loved the chemistry he had with his QB. He worked well when the play broke down multiple times to make the 1D in a scramble situation. You can tell that the QB trusts him because he gets a lot of those directed scramble plays as well as plenty of targets on 3rd down. He's old reliable. Generally he will carve up a zone and know where to exploit it with his route. However there were times in the red zone that was not the case. So a good base there to work off of. He isn't particularly deceptive or has moves or stutters or what not in his route running. It's a bit bland. He also, especially on his vertical routes, needs to clean up the loopiness to his breaks. They aren't as crisp as they could be given his ability to do that.
He offer great positional flexibility. You can line him up anywhere as a half-back, in-line, out wide, slot, etc. His blocking against better competition was rough to watch. This might never be a strong point but I think he can take on DBs and maybe LBs. Maybe he will be more of a chipper. Guys like Ledyard think he can be average to above average here but I am a bit more skeptical.
He has trouble catching when the ball is thrown high. He might not be the best contested catcher in a jump-ball situation but he is in others. He can make a catch on a ball thrown near the ground in a contested catch situation which... we do see quite a bit from Brady.
The Patriots like guys who can get separation quickly and get upfield. That's him. Check him out at 2:44 against Michigan State. He is great at tracking the ball and keeping on route at full speed. He makes an adjustment so that as he catches it he quickly accelerate upfield. He's smooth like that. If I could describe him in one word it would be smooth. Going back to the QB trusting him. At 5:46 they run the same route with him, same play I think, and after a close miss last time he gets the 1D this time.
Assuming he tests as well as he looked on film he is a guy I'd love for the Pats to add in day 2 and preferably in the third round sometime. He's a guy who can get that separation in 2.5 seconds or less. He has his warts and things to work on but who doesn't.

One final note. He didn't see much man coverage. He did well against man coverage in the senior bowl practices. TDN guys wrote about it.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I know Nauta is going to end up in my top 6 and with a round 2 grade. He's another two way tight end talent who has a nasty streak to him with, like every one else in this ridiculous class, plus athleticism. I can't give you that many specifics because I'd be going by just one cut-up vs LSU. Under utilized at Georgia like most tight ends in college. With Nauta it is more fine-tuning things because he already does a lot well. Good route runner. Some good natural moves there. You can use him to spell what Gronk does now. He is a vertical threat. He can get into blocks. He can attack the seams. He really is a great fit for the Pats. I'd take him in the 2nd round. Huge upgrade over Izzo/Allen.
Edit: I saw 90% or so of the Georgia games the past 2-3 years. His Florida tape will be excellent if they release it.

 

[tims4wins]

Kiper had Hock going 8 today. Man.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Kiper had Hock going 8 today. Man.

And the Pats taking Daniel Jones at 32. This is so fucking stupid on so many levels. He’s a day 3 QB. His best fit is a west coast system. Take anything Kiper says with the Pats and throw it out the window. Hock top 10 I can get on board with. Good call.

 

[soxhop411]

Kiper had Hock going 8 today. Man.

And the Pats taking Daniel Jones at 32. This is so fucking stupid on so many levels. He’s a day 3 QB. His best fit is a west coast system. Take anything Kiper says with the Pats and throw it out the window. Hock top 10 I can get on board with. Good call.

Why do we even look at mock drafts as pats fans?

When was the last mock draft that was close to accurate for patriots picks?

 

[tims4wins]

Only reason I looked was to see if Hock was anywhere realistic at 32. Apparently he isn’t.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Why do we even look at mock drafts as pats fans?

When was the last mock draft that was close to accurate for patriots picks?

It’s not that so much as it is this:

Only reason I looked was to see if Hock was anywhere realistic at 32. Apparently he isn’t.

Kiper and others like him hear the ranges of where guys are most likely going to get picked. He usually places in the top 10-20% of columnists with his final mock IIRC. He has a lot of inside info.

I read his stuff for that purpose.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Zach Gentry, tight end, Michigan.

Vs Michigan State here. Vs Florida here.

6'7" long lean and lanky tight end who definitely needs to put on weight if he wants to block at the next level. Florida ate his lunch as a blocker in particular. That's his biggest negative. He does a lot adequately. I think he is a bit stiff in the hips. His change of direction on vertical routes is better than some of his hitches and outs. He's a smooth vertical runner and has good speed. He has experience in pass protection and lining up everywhere. He has good hands, nice vertical extension for contested catches, and he is good at avoiding contact that would disrupts his routes. He has flashed some deception with his route running but it was inconsistent unfortunately.
He won't offer you much after the catch as he is not particularly elusive and his vision is adequate at best. He will though excel at getting open against a zone.
He's yet again another plus athlete with potential to be a three down player with positional versatility. I would value him without seeing his testing as an early day 3 pick. Like Kaden Smith, Sternberger, and Raymond if their athletic testing is exceptional I would have no problem putting any of them as day 2 guys. Combine is right around the corner.

Edit: We're at 9 tight ends that despite what they might struggle at they have a lot they CAN DO for the Pats. Don't rule out a double-dip here.

 

[EL Jeffe]

My WAY too early pre-combine Patriots projection:

1) Jeffery Simmons - I think he still goes in the 1st round. My best guess is Oakland takes him (they have 3 1sts, Gruden & Mayock have job security, and the Mack trade looks different if you get Simmons out of it). But if he makes it to 32, I think the Patriots jump. It's easier to redshirt this pick if you think of Wynn as your 1st round pick this year.
2a) D/Andre Walker - Reminds me a lot of Kyle Van Noy. He's not going to be for everyone (like KVN in Detroit) seeing how he's a 6"2", 245lb edge defender. I love his game - aggressive, tough, good football character and can get after the QB. He'd be a package player as a rookie but I like his future.
2b) Darnell Savage - I love Abram and Rapp, but Savage is my favorite of the 2nd tier safety group. He's very fast, aggressive, tackles well and covers the slot. With JC Jackson's immediate success last year, I can see them going back to the Maryland well.
3a) Armon Watts - I'm much higher on Watts than a lot of draft twitter is, but I think he ends up going somewhere around here. He's an Arkansas DL, 6'5", 300Lb. and well put together. Anchors against the run, 7.5 sacks last year and I liked his pass rush ability. He barely saw the field his first three years in college, and then blew up his senior year.
3b) Miles Boykin - There's a scrum of big WRs in this draft so it's hard to separate them. It's even harder to project WRs to the Patriots since even NFL veterans often struggle picking up the offense. I went with Boykin because the Notre Dame connection; BB and Kelley seem to have a lot of mutual respect and I think there's some conceptual and cultural carryover between the programs. Plus Boykin is aggressive in run blocking and I saw him throw some textbook wham blocks that the Pats love to execute.
3c) Max Scharping - I think they look for a developmental OL (assuming Trent Brown moves on). Scharping has some good tools but is a project coming from Northern Illinois. Seems like a Scar kind of guy.
4) Foster Moreau - My favorite mid-range TE in the draft. I love his blocking ability, he's got great football character, and he can catch. He definitely strikes me as a BB type of player.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The more I study Charles Omenihu DL/Edge Texas the more I think he is made for the Pats. The Draft Network has been on him since last summer and Mascho just mocked him in his latest. The Pats like size on the line. Omenihu is considered a bit of a tweener by traditional standards but the Pats don’t mind that. Trey Flowers is large for an end too. So is Wise. Like Flowers Omenihu can flip inside. You can use him anywhere on the DLine.
Where do I start with him? He’s long and powerful and he won’t win with bend but he’s sufficient there.
So many times you watch guys get stuck on blocks. Not Omenihu. His technique, hand work, variety of moves/counters, power, and athleticism allow him to win everywhere.
He’s not your prototypical bendy Edge guy. He’s a bit large for the position and some consider him a tweener.
Before he tests well I’d like to plant a flag here. I think he grades out as a first or second round guy for the Pats. He is a 3-down player. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes 32. Now if he slides and they can grab him later? Great.
His wingspan is going to be massive. He knows how to use his length too. In his interview with Jon and Trevor he talks about the stab club being his favorite move. He has an arsenal of them... going back it’s a good one too!
Edit: The rumor is he slides because he’s a tweener. I hope that’s true. Would be nice to grab him in the back of the 2nd.

 

[EL Jeffe]

Yeah, I definitely like Omenihu too. I think he's a better football player than Tillery, but I expect Tillery to be drafted first. Tillery is a planet player - legit 6'6", 300lb sculpted guy who competes in triathlons. But Tillery's hands aren't as heavy as I'd like and he doesn't consistently anchor in the running game. I thought Omenihu was a bit more consistent and versatile. I don't think either one will be there with that Chicago 2nd round pick, but they could be in play at #32 or a trade-up in the 2nd.

 

[Saints Rest]

It’s not that so much as it is this:
Kiper and others like him hear the ranges of where guys are most likely going to get picked. He usually places in the top 10-20% of columnists with his final mock IIRC. He has a lot of inside info.
I read his stuff for that purpose.

I think Kiper has given up on trying to guess what BB will do, so he just uses the Pats picks to slot in guys who deserve to be in that range, even if the Pats wouldn't be taking him. Which has value for him considering how often the Pats end up not picking in their original slots.
So when I read Kiper's picks for the Pats, I read it that he is more saying "The field is likely to take this guy in this slot."

 

[Saints Rest]

@SMU_Sox I love your write-ups. Could you add the player's height and weight when you do your profiles? It would help put your words in context (e.g. "Omenihu is considered a bit of a tweener by traditional standards but the Pats don’t mind that.")?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Absolutely will do. I do want to wait though for their combine or pro-day weigh-ins. Omenihu showed up at 6’6” and 274 at Mobile (Senior Bowl). His arms are 36”.

 

[tims4wins]

Pats get 2 3rds and a 6th, as predicted. I thought they would get a 7th as well, don't see any in the tweet though?

Edit: I see it, 252. So 97, 101, 205, 252

 

[EL Jeffe]

I looked at three Day 2 DL prospects today: LJ Collier (TCU), Isaiah Buggs (Bama), and Gerald Willis III (Miami). Three very different players, one of which I really liked.

I didn't catch any TCU games this year so Collier wasn't on my radar. Nonetheless I'd heard good things recently so I was eager to take a look. I watched his Texas and Cal (bowl) games. I was very impressed. His physical profile is a lot like Flowers's. Collier is a shade over 6'2 and checks in at 280# with long arms. The first thing that jumps out is he's a natural pass rusher. At 280 he was able to bend the edge. He also showed good pad level, bull rushing and putting tackles on roller skates. He also had an effective swim move. He played strictly on the edge, never kicking inside. He did stand up as a rusher a few times. His play against the run was just okay. He got washed out a few times and engulfed at other times. Overall he held his own but he's got work to do in stuffing the run. I really liked watching his tape. Good football player who can get after the QB. I expect him to test well at the combine.

I've seen Buugs mocked to the Pat's often so I looked forward to watching him. I looked at his A&M and Ole Miss games. Ugh. Really, really disappointing considering the hype. He was consistently the last player off the snap and there was no twitch or explosion in his first two steps. He had productive counting stats against A&M but he wasn't winning many matchups. He's naturally strong and can use his hands but no rush moves. He can anchor in the run game but didn't make pursuit plays. Looks like a limited athlete. Very underwhelmed with Buggs. 6'2 5/8, 295#. I don't expect him to run or jump well at the combine,

Willis was an interesting evaluation. I watched LSU and BC. He was very disruptive against LSU spending a lot of time in the backfield. Very explosive, quick and strong. He has some bad habits, losing control of his gap responsibilities and playing horizontally to the line of scrimmage. He was also on the ground way too much. BC was a different story as the really handled him. No penetration and he got washed out pretty consistently. Still, the tools are evident. He has some character red flags but it sounds like he got straightened out this year under Richt. I can see him being an impact 3 down DT, but he needs to play more square and under control. He doesn't strike me as a Patriots pick in terms of play style but the physical profile is there (6'3 2/8, 300#). I'd expect a good 10 yard split and jumping numbers at the combine to confirm the explosion he showed against LSU.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/ledyard-s-2019-nfl-mock-draft-5.0

Jon Ledyard has his pre combine mock draft up today and I was intrigued to see Christian Wilkins going so late, #26 to Indy. Wilkins seems to be a lock to be a productive pro during his first contract but I can’t imagine he generates more buzz from here on out. Could he see a Wilforkian slide to the Pats?

 

[EL Jeffe]

I can't see Wilkins sliding that far. There were some questions about his toughness and physicality but I think he answered them this year. I really like his game - he's extremely athletic, has 3 down value and had a really good senior year.

Dexter Lawrence on the other hand could definitely be available at 32. He'll test out as a better athlete than Danny Shelton, but I'm not convinced he can rush the passer at the NFL level. He's massive and he's strong, but he's a pocket pushing pass rusher. I'd expect the Patriots to have interest, but those 340# nose tackle types are a dying breed in the NFL.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I love dancing Bears but I’m out on Lawrence as a top 50 guy. Top 50-100 fine. My sweet spot for him is that end of 2nd to 3rd round.
My logic is a guy like Lawrence might not play on obvious passing downs. DT's typically play 40-60% of the snaps. Whereas versatile DL folks like Flowers can play 80-100% of snaps. I see Lawrence as a 40-60% guy whereas I see Omenihu year 3-4 being closer to a 60-80%+ guy because he can lineup on the interior. Lawrence should have a high floor but his ceiling is limited given what he can and cannot do. Whereas Omenihu has some greater risk to him not being a prototype for either edge or IDL but has the ceiling to be a complete DL player. That's a simplistic version of it.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Combine has started! Let’s overreact to everything! Going in I rewatched some of the TEs and read additional other work on the class. Matt Waldman’s piece on Dawson Knox (on mobile will link later) looks at his blocking technique. Dawson Knox is close to a first round grade for me. He is another guy I’d plant a flag for or die on a hill for (those two phrases are used a lot now, huh?). I believe his ceiling is that he projects to be an elite TE 1. His production issues stem from their 25 play offense (or 5 plays with 5 variations of each?). He consistently got separation. The traits are all there even if you have to partially project things like how he will develop as a route runner.
Irv Smith jr and Nauta came in a little small at 6023 242 and 6032 244. Patriots have liked bigger tight ends earlier in the draft historically. Now the good news is most of the other tight ends weighed in at 249 or above including Raymond and Sternberger.
Get ready for some tight end fireworks folks.