HRB having his own, secret metrics that tell him different things is awesome.
A Dallas vs Boston series will really come down to how well Washington/DJJ/Josh Green can defend Tatum and Brown. I would really favor the Celtics on paper in that matchup, but those guys have played really well in the postseason. I would expect it to start out with Washington on Tatum and DJJ on Brown. The big thing with the Celtics, as opposed to the Wolves, is I expect the Celtics to be way better at generating switches and targeting Kyrie and Doncic in those mismatches, the same way they targeted Herro, Garland, Haliburton, etc. so far in the postseason.
A big thing to monitor will be the three point shooting of Dallas' wings. Washington shot 23 of 49 from three in the OKC series, but has fallen back to earth in the Minnesota series, shooting 4 of 18 on mostly wide-open looks. The Celtics will likely concede looks from those guys in favor of collapsing on Luka and Kyrie. Dallas needs those guys to make shots--they probably wouldn't have beaten OKC if those guys shot their career percentages from three.
As good as Minnesota was defensively during the Denver series and during the regular season, they really feel like a poor matchup against Dallas. Conley, Gobert and Towns, can all be attacked on switches, especially when they ask the big guys to defend in space. Boston doesn't have those weaknesses, and have basically the perfect team from a personnel perspective to defend Luka and Kyrie, with four, really strong, all defense-level defenders to throw at them. The Celtics are closer to OKC in terms of personnel than Minnesota, and the Thunder actually did a really good job bottling up Luka and especially Kyrie, in that series.
The thing that scares me the most about Dallas' offense, because it feels like an unknown, is the number of lobs that they've been able to generate. There was a crazy stat they showed during the game that said Dallas had 50+ alley-oops in the postseason and the next closest team had 9. Luka and Kyrie are great at throwing them out of the pick and roll and Gafford and Lively can get to almost any ball (as can DJJ). Lively's health status is going to be pivotal, that looked like a potential nasty concussion last night, and he has been great on both ends as a role player. If he isn't ready to play in the Finals, and Kleber isn't back, Dallas is going to be pretty small if Gafford gets into foul trouble.