What Can/Should NY Do?

jon abbey

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Now I understand better why NY drafted a SS in the 1st round a couple weeks ago in Sweeney, the system is now much less clogged for guys like him and Vargas to move up.
 

jon abbey

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John King is on the IL with shoulder inflammation, wonder if that is part of the holdup.
 

nattysez

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Seems like a very good deal for the Yankees considering the consolidation point made above. If they were going to lose some of these guys as part of the Rule V draft, might as well get value for them now.

It also looks like the Rangers had been negotiating an extension with Gallo. I wonder if his demands made them decide there was more value to be had from a trade rather than ongoing extension talks.
 

Apisith

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Damn, this is a good trade for the Yankees. Gallo's K rate is at a career low and his walk rate is at a career high. He'll add a lot to their lineup.
 

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Seems like a very good deal for the Yankees considering the consolidation point made above. If they were going to lose some of these guys as part of the Rule V draft, might as well get value for them now.

It also looks like the Rangers had been negotiating an extension with Gallo. I wonder if his demands made them decide there was more value to be had from a trade rather than ongoing extension talks.
STOP BEING SO NEGATIVE....oh wait, I agree! (JK, sorry about yesterday)

The extension talks would be interesting because if there's no baseball next year, this could be a real shit trade.
 

jon abbey

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All five of the BA top 30 guys there are having fantastic seasons also, not just very good but fantastic.

Also very relevantly (as it was intended), earlier today Eric Longenhagen posted his annual pre-deadline take on which teams have looming 40 man issues this winter. TEX is one of them, which shows you what they think of this Yankee haul to add four more to that (Smith/Hauver don't need to be protected yet).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-crunch-situations-american-league/
 

DanoooME

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FG also has moved the prospects to Texas' list. Duran slots 3rd behind Leiter and Jung and is #122 overall. Smith is #8, Pereira is #18, Hauver is #32, Otto is #38, and Vasquez is #50
 

jon abbey

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Oh, an even more recent deal that is similar to this was NY sending 4 guys to PIT for two seasons of Taillon, two of them are already in top 100 lists (Contreras/Yajure) and the other two are playing well too. You can easily win one of these deals on the quantity side in the current game, I think.

WAS is the team that should be doing this kind of move, they badly need to restock their system.
 

jon abbey

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View: https://twitter.com/BryanHoch/status/1420571116431622144


I think any holdup might be around King, but also Josh Breaux got pulled from his game in high A in the 8th. He also fits the profile of the other players in this deal, their 2018 second round pick, a catcher who they are not sure can stay there defensively but who has been crushing the ball lately, 8 HRs in July. He also is rule 5 eligible this winter, I certainly could see him subbed in for someone if needed.

https://www.milb.com/player/josh-breaux-677007?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb
 

E5 Yaz

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View: https://twitter.com/BryanHoch/status/1420571116431622144


I think any holdup might be around King, but also Josh Breaux got pulled from his game in high A in the 8th. He also fits the profile of the other players in this deal, their 2018 second round pick, a catcher who they are not sure can stay there defensively but who has been crushing the ball lately, 8 HRs in July. He also is rule 5 eligible this winter, I certainly could see him subbed in for someone if needed.

https://www.milb.com/player/josh-breaux-677007?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb
Nah, Manfred voids it in the best interest of baseball ..... lololololol
 

nattysez

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Rodriguez is a much worse get than King (76 ERA+ v. 128) so the prospects going the other way should diminish as well.
 

jon abbey

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So what that looks like to me is that King is a lot better than Rodriguez, but King's arm is not currently functional, so in exchange, TEX dropped the 5th and 6th pieces. So maybe initially it was conceived as a kind of combined 4 for Gallo/2 for King deal, Rodriguez does not look like an asset, so now it is just 4 for Gallo.
 

Apisith

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It’s a good move by Cashman and this is exactly how he should spend prospects that don’t fit the contending window. The Yankees window, assuming ownership is intent on staying at the limit, is finished in two years. You gotta load up and make a real run at things. Hoarding prospects is suboptimal.
 

jon abbey

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Joely Rodriguez has no options, having a very hard time seeing how he deserves a spot on the team currently. Maybe moved on or released? I guess we'll hear soon.
 

jon abbey

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It’s a good move by Cashman and this is exactly how he should spend prospects that don’t fit the contending window. The Yankees window, assuming ownership is intent on staying at the limit, is finished in two years. You gotta load up and make a real run at things. Hoarding prospects is suboptimal.
This definitely pushes more chips into the 2022 basket, Judge and Gallo and Sanchez are all FAs after that.

And we have no idea what will be in the next CBA, but I'm pretty sure the idea for NY isn't to stay under every year, just to reset the tax rate every three or so as the penalties really add up. I would even go farther and guess that the reason resetting it this year was imperative for Hal is that they are eyeing the big SSs this winter (Correa?) and might not be under again for a while. That doesn't mean they definitely do, but they are better positioned if they want to.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Interesting thought from a SF Giants writer. How worried are the Yanks about exceeding the cap this year?

View: https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/1420587174173372417?s=19
Fair to say the Yankees will not go over the CBT cap unless there is something unbelievably compelling. Every move they have made since November has been with an eye toward staying under.

Edit: And the Yankees need Kluber. If there a player that would help to get rid of, it'd probably be Gardner to save a couple million but I don't think there's anyone who they need ~$2m or so for. I suppose Clint Frazier would save ~$1m or so too. I just don't see any viable options for the Yankees to move. You guys took Ottavino already to help all this happen.
 
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jon abbey

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Joel Sherman definitely does not know exactly where NY is in relation to the tax line.
 

Apisith

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This definitely pushes more chips into the 2022 basket, Judge and Gallo and Sanchez are all FAs after that.

And we have no idea what will be in the next CBA, but I'm pretty sure the idea for NY isn't to stay under every year, just to reset the tax rate every three or so as the penalties really add up. I would even go farther and guess that the reason resetting it this year was imperative for Hal is that they are eyeing the big SSs this winter (Correa?) and might not be under again for a while. That doesn't mean they definitely do, but they are better positioned if they want to.
Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers need the CBT limit to be raised $30-40m to extend their respective windows.
 

nattysez

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Edit: And the Yankees need Kluber.
This is a good point. If they can actually get him back in time for the stretch run, he'd be helpful. They'll probably only move him as part of a deal for another starter.
 

jon abbey

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Keith Law says among other things:

"The original deal included two more prospects in Everson Pereira and Randy Vasquez, and the package was much more attractive for the Rangers with them included – especially Vasquez."
 

Murderer's Crow

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Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers need the CBT limit to be raised $30-40m to extend their respective windows.
Long post needed to really dig in here, and you can certainly fill in details for the Red Sox, but the Yankees are built in a way where they shouldn't have to close their window if they lose Sanchez and/or Judge. That is talent that can be replaced, hopefully from within but also very possible externally. The Dodgers also don't ever look like they'll have a closed window again given how deep they are.
 

jon abbey

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But his MAIN takeaway was that the Rangers took quantity over quality -- exactly what I said four hours ago. ;)
In the end it is the same deal NY made for 2 seasons of Taillon, 4 solid prospects but not their top tier. That one looks good both ways currently, Roansy Contreras hurts the most of any of those eight.
 

Apisith

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Long post needed to really dig in here, and you can certainly fill in details for the Red Sox, but the Yankees are built in a way where they shouldn't have to close their window if they lose Sanchez and/or Judge. That is talent that can be replaced, hopefully from within but also very possible externally. The Dodgers also don't ever look like they'll have a closed window again given how deep they are.
When I refer to the 'window', I'm defining it to be the years where your base level talent is of a 97-102 win team. This seems to be what it takes to win these days as the league has become much more top heavy. Yes, the Yankees are likely to win 90 games every year even if they lose Sanchez and/or Judge but LeMahieu, Hicks, Cole and Stanton are all 30+. You have to project some decline from them, and whichever prospects graduate not only have to replace Judge and/or Sanchez's production but also replace the production from the 30+ players, who are all on long term deals. If the CBT limit isn't raised and the ownership is intent on staying at the limit, IMO, your 'window' is done after 2022. If the CBT limit is raised $30-40m then you'll have enough payroll room to top-up the base level talent through FA to replace production from the 30+ players. Like you implied, your farm system is strong enough to continue graduating players.

The Dodgers are way over the limit this year, and assuming of course that they want to reset the tax level once every few years, they won't be able to resign Seager. The rest of their core are also getting expensive (Bellinger) or aging out of their primes (Kershaw, Jansen, Betts). I don't know enough about their farm system to know whether they have enough replacements.
 
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jon abbey

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I agree with Apisith more than crow on this, but I also think it's kind of silly to look too far ahead in a sport that can change so quickly and where young players have an increasingly strong impact. If Dominguez lives up to the hype and is ready by 2023, that would take a lot of sting out of whoever they lose after 2022.
 

jon abbey

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We can start a new Gallo thread if and when this is completed, he seems like a pretty fascinating player who I'm excited to watch every night.
 

nvalvo

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All five of the BA top 30 guys there are having fantastic seasons also, not just very good but fantastic.

Also very relevantly (as it was intended), earlier today Eric Longenhagen posted his annual pre-deadline take on which teams have looming 40 man issues this winter. TEX is one of them, which shows you what they think of this Yankee haul to add four more to that (Smith/Hauver don't need to be protected yet).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-crunch-situations-american-league/
I'm starting to think that there are so many teams with 40-man crunches that the depredations of the actual Rule V draft won't be that bad.
 

Murderer's Crow

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When I refer to the 'window', I'm defining it to be the years where your base level talent is of a 97-102 win team. This seems to be what it takes to win these days as the league has become much more top heavy. Yes, the Yankees are likely to win 90 games every year even if they lose Sanchez and/or Judge but LeMahieu, Hicks, Cole and Stanton are all 30+. You have to project some decline from them, and whichever prospects graduate not only have to replace Judge and/or Sanchez's production but also replace the production from the 30+ players, who are all on long term deals. If the CBT limit isn't raised and the ownership is intent on staying at the limit, IMO, your 'window' is done after 2022. If the CBT limit is raised $30-40m then you'll have enough payroll room to top-up the base level talent through FA to replace production from the 30+ players. Like you implied, your farm system is strong enough to continue graduating players.

The Dodgers are way over the limit this year, and assuming of course that they want to reset the tax level once every few years, they won't be able to resign Seager. The rest of their core are also getting expensive (Bellinger) or aging out of their primes (Kershaw, Jansen, Betts). I don't know enough about their farm system to know whether they have enough replacements.
I think I agree with this, caveat that Judge and Sanchez's production has waffled so much due to injuries that it may not be as hard as it looks.

It sounds like our main point of difference was really around what "window" means. I think the Yankees will continue to field competitive/winning teams regardless of those factors and perhaps the luxury tax won't have any bearing on the decisions for what to do.

One thing I'll say is that I think Cashman and the Yankees probably won't sign any mega contracts in the next couple of years unless the length is right.
 

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My out of left field idea for the next trade is the Yankees getting Bryant, shifting Urshela to short, Torres to second and DJLM to first.
 

jon abbey

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My out of left field idea for the next trade is the Yankees getting Bryant, shifting Urshela to short, Torres to second and DJLM to first.
Wouldn't it make more sense if they got Bryant to put him in LF and keep Voit in the lineup?
 

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Bryant plays a lot of positions, but I'm not sure he plays any of them particularly well. Good bat when he's healthy though.

I think I'd rather keep Urshela at 3B and see a SS move if they can still stay under for the year. And yeah, I know they'd have to figure some things out with Gleyber/Voit/DJ.
 

jon abbey

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Story seems like he has been playing hurt, don't really want to give up prospects for a hurt rental. Anyway, in Cashman I trust (except when it comes to hiring/not firing managers).
 

jon abbey

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Rumors of Voit being dealt and of NY going after Schwarber and Story, gonna be a wild next 26 hours.