What do the Pats do at 23?

What do the Pats do at 23?

  • Trade down

    Votes: 131 71.6%
  • Trade up

    Votes: 8 4.4%
  • Draft LB (Murray, Queen, etc.)

    Votes: 14 7.7%
  • Draft OL (Josh Jones, Ruiz, etc.)

    Votes: 12 6.6%
  • Draft WR (Higgins, Ruggs, Jefferson, etc.)

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Draft TE (Kmet)

    Votes: 6 3.3%
  • Draft Edge (Chaisson, Baun, etc.)

    Votes: 5 2.7%
  • Draft DB (McKinney, Winfield, Delpit, etc.)

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Draft RB (Swift?)

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Other (QB or DT... or Kicker ha)

    Votes: 3 1.6%

  • Total voters
    183
  • Poll closed .

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,662
Hingham, MA
Since we still have close to 10 hours to kill...

Edit: to be clear, I am asking for predictions, not ideal outcome. I think we'd all prefer a trade down.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,662
Hingham, MA
Trade down to try to shorten the gap between the first round and third round picks. They need to draft as many players as possible.
I think that is all of our ideal choice, but we'll see how many teams are actually interested in doing this. I'm skeptical. I updated the OP to make it more clear on what we are voting on.
 

Gambler7

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2003
3,641
I think they need to trade down to obtain more assets. The most interesting thing is when and where they draft a QB. It will be the first indication of how they really feel about Stidham.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
24,471
I think they trade down (Colts, Bears, Ravens, Packers seem possible partners)

I think they need to trade down to obtain more assets. The most interesting thing is when and where they draft a QB. It will be the first indication of how they really feel about Stidham.
I think it really only says something about Stidham if they pick one in the 1st. Even in the Brady years they often used 2-4ths if they liked a guy.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,559
Mansfield MA
I think they trade down (Colts, Bears, Ravens, Packers seem possible partners)


I think it really only says something about Stidham if they pick one in the 1st. Even in the Brady years they often used 2-4ths if they liked a guy.
They only used a 2 once. 3 or 4 I agree.

It's also worth noting: Brian Hoyer is the only other QB on the roster, he's 35, he's won one start since 2015, and he's on a one-year deal. Even if you're ride-or-die with Stidham, there's a need for a long-term backup.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
SoSH Member
Feb 9, 2010
5,299
Providence, RI
I hope they punt on this entire draft as much as they can.
There'll be no rookie camp, no mini-camp, a shortened training camp (assuming it happens) and likely a shortened season if any at all. Drafting guys to have them sit on the shelf for a year doesn't have a great success rate. The team has so many needs right now I'd really rather see them ignore 2020 and focus on 2021. Start the rebuild in 2021 with more draft picks and more cap space.

Though I'd assume other teams would love to take the same strategy so trading out of this draft might be easier said then done.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,662
Hingham, MA
I hope they punt on this entire draft as much as they can.
There'll be no rookie camp, no mini-camp, a shortened training camp (assuming it happens) and likely a shortened season if any at all. Drafting guys to have them sit on the shelf for a year doesn't have a great success rate. The team has so many needs right now I'd really rather see them ignore 2020 and focus on 2021. Start the rebuild in 2021 with more draft picks and more cap space.

Though I'd assume other teams would love to take the same strategy so trading out of this draft might be easier said then done.
I originally had the same thought, but if there is no college season (or reduced college season), the 2021 draft could be a complete crapshoot (and shitshow - if guys can't work out the same way, not in structured programs, etc.). I'd much rather have them load up this year and have those guys in the system for a year and just punt 2021. Maybe they should use 2021 picks to move up this year.
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,469
I think they go HEAVY defense. #23 will most likely be a LB or DL if they don't trade the pick.

IMO, the offenses will suffer most from lack of time together in OTAs - It takes reps to get an offense to click into place. Belichick knows this better than anyone so I'd bet that he tries to draft as many impact defenders as possible.

I'm guessing they pick Ross Blacklock in a trade-down.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
5,535
CA
I’m going contrarian here and saying “Trade Up”. We have really only seen BB in “go for it” mode (to different degrees) knowing that he has a franchise QB in place and can win now, so they have accumulated as many complementary assets as they have been able to. It will be interesting to see if their draft approach changes at all and they go after a player that they think is someone they can build something around.

I’m going way out on a limb and saying they trade up for Isaiah Simmons.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,699
I’m going contrarian here and saying “Trade Up”. We have really only seen BB in “go for it” mode (to different degrees) knowing that he has a franchise QB in place and can win now, so they have accumulated as many complementary assets as they have been able to. It will be interesting to see if their draft approach changes at all and they go after a player that they think is someone they can build something around.

I’m going way out on a limb and saying they trade up for Isaiah Simmons.
They'd have to trade most everything they have in order to get high enough to draft Simmons. Don't see them doing that. But man I love that player.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
74,237
Oregon
I originally had the same thought, but if there is no college season (or reduced college season), the 2021 draft could be a complete crapshoot (and shitshow - if guys can't work out the same way, not in structured programs, etc.). I'd much rather have them load up this year and have those guys in the system for a year and just punt 2021. Maybe they should use 2021 picks to move up this year.
Agree with this ... and bonus points for the crapshoot/shitshow sentence.

If Ruiz or McKinney is there, they take him. If not, they trade down.
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
5,775
Canton, MA
They only used a 2 once. 3 or 4 I agree.

It's also worth noting: Brian Hoyer is the only other QB on the roster, he's 35, he's won one start since 2015, and he's on a one-year deal. Even if you're ride-or-die with Stidham, there's a need for a long-term backup.
Agreed. I'll be stunned if a QB isn't drafted somewhere in rounds 3-4 this year. Even if Stidham is a future HOFer they still need another QB.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
7,394
South of North
Draft BPA. Unless they have someone targeted and they can get another asset by dropping down 10-20 slots and still get that guy.

If Cesar Ruiz is available I think they get him. Ruiz will be an almost instant starter and has huge potential. One of the smartest interior lineman I've watched with the physical tools to go along with it, and has been playing C longer than any player reasonably should.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
5,535
CA
They'd have to trade most everything they have in order to get high enough to draft Simmons. Don't see them doing that. But man I love that player.
Yep. I think we are more likely to see Hilary as POTUS in 2021.
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
45,056
DL of some sort, just going by history. (Easley, Brown, Chandler). Probably a hybrid with an injured past like Easley if I had to bet. Any fit that narrative?
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
26,140
I voted trade down. kinda hoping for a trade up if there's a franchise QB Bill thinks is the one, but they never operate that way (and for good reason).

if they stay pat, get DL help
 

EL Jeffe

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 30, 2006
1,108
DL of some sort, just going by history. (Easley, Brown, Chandler). Probably a hybrid with an injured past like Easley if I had to bet. Any fit that narrative?
Ross Blacklock. He's 6'3, 290# with some explosion and twitch. He missed his sophomore year at TCU with an Achilles injury, but he's a very disruptive interior rusher. #23 is probably a bit too rich (he's okay against the run, but it remains to be seen if he can 2-gap at the NFL level).
 

MICHAELG63

lurker
Mar 30, 2008
67
I think what they do is going to be tied into if they can move Thuney. If they do i think Ruiz if they can't its a pass rusher.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
6,938
Maine
DL of some sort, just going by history. (Easley, Brown, Chandler). Probably a hybrid with an injured past like Easley if I had to bet. Any fit that narrative?
Blacklock? Also projected to the end of the 1st beginning of the 2nd so he checks a couple boxes.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
30,807
Not if they start including 2021 picks. 23 + 2021 first ought to be more than enough. If they wanted to.
An interesting notion shedding some 2021 picks, given the amount of cap space in a year (relative to other teams) gives BB more ability to add quality FAs to the roster in lieu of picks. Or, maybe a trade for a legit TE gets made before September using 2021 draft assets.
 

Zincman

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
302
New London
Is is a possibility to literally trade out of this draft, amassing 2021 and 2022 picks that become much more valuable if we have a stunted or even eliminated 2020 season.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,662
Hingham, MA
Is is a possibility to literally trade out of this draft, amassing 2021 and 2022 picks that become much more valuable if we have a stunted or even eliminated 2020 season.
Why would you want 2021 picks if there is no 2020 season? Who are you going to draft next year?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
51,125
deep inside Guido territory
First choice is to trade back. If they stay at 23, I'd like them to pick the best available front seven player. Only exceptions to this is if one of the big 4 WRs fall or if Justin Jefferson is there. I do not want to draft a TE early because the value just isn't there, but if the Pats value Kmet anywhere late 1st-2nd and they don't get a 2nd rounder tonight then I guess. It is a dire need, but other players with more value at positions of need will be there too.
 

Zincman

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
302
New London
Why would you want 2021 picks if there is no 2020 season? Who are you going to draft next year?

The easy answer is the best available talent based on whatever evaluations you are able to garner for 2021. If there is no 2020 season the players drafted this year will be rookies in 2021 as well. The question for me is what's the exchange rate for 2020 picks. What does a #23 pick get you in 2021 or 2022 currency. If its inflated enough, isn't it worth it to explore that option?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,662
Hingham, MA
The easy answer is the best available talent based on whatever evaluations you are able to garner for 2021. If there is no 2020 season the players drafted this year will be rookies in 2021 as well. The question for me is what's the exchange rate for 2020 picks. What does a #23 pick get you in 2021 or 2022 currency. If its inflated enough, isn't it worth it to explore that option?
But at least 2020 picks will have a year in the system. Even if it's only virtual, and they can only start working out on (making this up) January 1, 2021, the 2020 picks will much further along than the 2021 picks. Plus the 2021 picks will have gone forever without formal structure, conditioning / weight lifting, etc. If there is no 2020 season I wouldn't feel very comfortable at all with the 2021 evaluations.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
43,919
The easy answer is the best available talent based on whatever evaluations you are able to garner for 2021. If there is no 2020 season the players drafted this year will be rookies in 2021 as well. The question for me is what's the exchange rate for 2020 picks. What does a #23 pick get you in 2021 or 2022 currency. If its inflated enough, isn't it worth it to explore that option?
I guess to really get a sense of how this strategy might work, you'd need to do a deep dive on the history of future mock drafts and the like. How often, for example, do the top projected prospects 2 years out match what ends up happening when that draft comes to pass? When guys jump up thanks to final year performance, does it translate to NFL any more than the guys who sit atop expected prospect rankings for years?

I'm sure there aren't really definitive answers to these questions thanks to very small sample sizes. But I am generally with tims here—I'd want to draft more guys with the most information possible. A full missed season introduces a ton of uncertainty, with only the benefit of guys having one less season of wear and tear on their bodies (which is not nothing, to be fair).
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
45,056
I'd prefer 2022 draft picks to both 2020 and 2021, provided BB stays through 2024 at the very least
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,781
Dallas
They could go a ton of directions but I think they trade down or take an offensive lineman.

One of these five: Lloyd Cushenberry, Cesar Ruiz, Josh Jones, Ezra Cleveland, Austin Jackson.

They might be in on Kmet but I think he's a 2nd rounder. If they traded back once or twice and got him at the end of round 1 I could swallow it.

Or maybe all of this talk of offense is a smokescreen for them taking D early and often given the state of the roster in 2021 especially in the front 7.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
30,807
Bedard's mock pick at #23:

Patriots: Kenneth Murray, ILB, Oklahoma
The more I’ve thought about it, the more they need a linebacker who is versatile, smart and a leader to replace Jamie Collins. Murray has it all.

BSJ

Clarification: He actually expects Pats will trade out of 1st round, but has Murray if they keep pick.
 
Last edited:

dcdrew10

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
1,314
Washington, DC via Worcester
Since 2000 BB has used the Pat's first pick on an offensive or defensive lineman first 11 times and a linebacker 2 times. Three of the drafts where the Pat's top pick went to a position other than a front-7 or o-line gets, a lineman has gone with their second pick.

In the 4 years where no front 7 or offensive line picks in the top 2 - 2019 (Henry, Joejuan Williams), 2010 (McCourty and Gronk), 2006 (Maroney and Chad Jackson), 2002 (Graham and Branch).

So I would go trade or the best player available in the Front 7 or Offensive Lineman.
 

EL Jeffe

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 30, 2006
1,108
I freaking love Murray as a prospect fit. I don't think he gets past Dallas, unfortunately.
 

Dr. Gonzo

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2010
3,159
Murray or Ruiz if the pick is kept.

Murray fits a short term and long term need and Ruiz gives the flexibility to trade Thuney and have a potential Andrews replacement.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
13,610
UWS, NYC
Peter Schreger's mock draft this morning had Swift to the Pats at #23. Which makes less sense to me than Rodrigo Blankenship at #23.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,699
But at least 2020 picks will have a year in the system. Even if it's only virtual, and they can only start working out on (making this up) January 1, 2021, the 2020 picks will much further along than the 2021 picks. Plus the 2021 picks will have gone forever without formal structure, conditioning / weight lifting, etc. If there is no 2020 season I wouldn't feel very comfortable at all with the 2021 evaluations.
But you'd also have them (2020 picks) under control for one fewer year as well.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
24,471
I voted trade down, and I think that is what happens, but if they stay, I have no idea because the picks in front are so in flux, but also the Patriots have so few long term commitments that they could legitimately take whoever the BPA is.

Kinlaw falls... great fit. Henderson falls... yeah that makes sense. Josh Jones or Austin Jackson... great, Justin Jefferson ... makes sense, Cowboys passed on Chaisson.,.... good fit.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
32,935
AZ
I hate the draft largely because I don't watch college football. Every year I turn it on at some point and then turn it off within like 5 minutes and then just check the internet to see what's happening with the Patriots.

I cannot believe how excited I am to watch it tonight given that it's something related to sports.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,781
Dallas
Murray is not just a dynamic athlete but an outstanding young man and a model citizen and leader both on and off the field. Want a high character guy? That's him. I have a few questions with his processing and in coverage but he improved as the season went on with both of those regards.

Huge ceiling. Huge upside and a nice floor to boot. I like me some Kenneth Murray. Beware of the Raiders and the Saints here.
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,469
Peter Schreger's mock draft this morning had Swift to the Pats at #23. Which makes less sense to me than Rodrigo Blankenship at #23.
Makes sense if Belichick shifts to the single wing offense that he's always wanted to try.
 

Zincman

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
302
New London
Yeah this is true. I just think the evaluations a year out with no college season would be really, really sketchy.
I would agree with you on that but I'm still interested in what the exchange rate is. How much additional value can we acquire by trading out of this draft? Tims and Jed Zep know a lot more than me but I'm interested in what we have and what its worth a year or two down the road. Is #23 worth a first and a third at some point. Can multiple thirds be converted into higher future picks? I'm really asking, not just theorizing for the sake of argument.