What do the Pats do at 23?

What do the Pats do at 23?

  • Trade down

    Votes: 131 71.6%
  • Trade up

    Votes: 8 4.4%
  • Draft LB (Murray, Queen, etc.)

    Votes: 14 7.7%
  • Draft OL (Josh Jones, Ruiz, etc.)

    Votes: 12 6.6%
  • Draft WR (Higgins, Ruggs, Jefferson, etc.)

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Draft TE (Kmet)

    Votes: 6 3.3%
  • Draft Edge (Chaisson, Baun, etc.)

    Votes: 5 2.7%
  • Draft DB (McKinney, Winfield, Delpit, etc.)

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Draft RB (Swift?)

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Other (QB or DT... or Kicker ha)

    Votes: 3 1.6%

  • Total voters
    183
  • Poll closed .

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Makes sense if Belichick shifts to the single wing offense that he's always wanted to try.
Heh. I do wonder what advantages could be gained by going to an old-school two-back set like they used to run with James and Collins in the 80s. Both were very good runners, good blockers, and good receivers. They could go with either guy and the defense didn't have a clue who was getting the ball.

Could such an approach be effective in today's game?
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
3,932
I would agree with you on that but I'm still interested in what the exchange rate is. How much additional value can we acquire by trading out of this draft? Tims and Jed Zep know a lot more than me but I'm interested in what we have and what its worth a year or two down the road. Is #23 worth a first and a third at some point. Can multiple thirds be converted into higher future picks? I'm really asking, not just theorizing for the sake of argument.
In theory, it's a decent idea. But you'll have a couple of issues to deal with:
-Other teams may also want to bail on this draft, reducing the number of trade partners you have.
-With a lot of unknowns this year, teams may be less willing to give up assets than they normally would to move up or into a draft spot.
- I'm sure they could deal 23 for a future 1st and a 3rd, you're just not going to get that from someone projected to be in the top 10 or so of the draft. After that, you're getting into a crap shoot. Do you do a deal with a team like Indy or BAL, and then next year see that 1st round pick land at 29 or 30 if they do well? Is that extra 3rd round pick worth a possible drop in the 1st while waiting another year? If not, is someone willing to give up a 1st and a 2nd?
-You're probably not going to trade a couple of mid round picks for anything of significant value. Maybe you get a future 2nd and a 4th?

Basically, sure, they could trade out and get future assets, but you're delaying getting those players into your system another season and you're taking a risk if you're dealing with a playoff bound team that the future assets aren't as good as what you're dealing. It depends what you want to do. I don't think Bill is looking to punt on the season, so I think they'll stick around and take BPA while making the typical BB moves up and down the draft. I'm hoping they uncover a couple of unknown gems in the middle rounds.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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Yeah this is true. I just think the evaluations a year out with no college season would be really, really sketchy.
I agree with you on this, however, that risk means that teams moving up at the expense of '21 picks are going to pay an over-market rate. So there is some potential for them to accumulate serious draft capital in the Lawrence/Fields sweepstakes in a year where they're not likely to be very good.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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Best case scenario for me is Tua and Herbert going off the board in the top 6 along with Burrow, then whoever wants Jordan Love moving up to the Pats pick at 23.

That should give the Patriots enough ammo to dance around the board and scoop up a couple guys in round 2, and 3 guys in round 3. Should be able to fill some holes in that 35-100 range.
 

Harry Hooper

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Murray or Ruiz if the pick is kept.

Murray fits a short term and long term need and Ruiz gives the flexibility to trade Thuney and have a potential Andrews replacement.
Merloni was practically in tears on the radio begging BB not to draft Ruiz. Pretty entertaining, actually.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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For the Patriots, Breer just mentioned McKinney, Murray and Kmet as the names he's hearing. He also said OL if the board goes that way.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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[
For the Patriots, Breer just mentioned McKinney, Murray and Kmet as the names he's hearing. He also said OL if the board goes that way.
So basically the highest ranked player likely available at their 3 biggest areas of need, he's really got the inside scoop there.
 

EL Jeffe

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Kinlaw, Chaisson, Murray, Jeudy and Lamb. Any of them at 23 would be an absolute slam dunk for me.
 

Joe D Reid

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Looks like the correct answer will be something like Kmet and Hurts.
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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I’m going contrarian here and saying “Trade Up”. We have really only seen BB in “go for it” mode (to different degrees) knowing that he has a franchise QB in place and can win now, so they have accumulated as many complementary assets as they have been able to. It will be interesting to see if their draft approach changes at all and they go after a player that they think is someone they can build something around.

I’m going way out on a limb and saying they trade up for Isaiah Simmons.
Nailed. It.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
8,878
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Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:

23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
I had a shitty mock. The only thing I nailed was what the Pats would do. I know they could just take Kmet at 37 but something tells me they trade up into the 40's or 50's to trade up for Cole. Just a hunch. Probably should quit when I am behind though.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Pleasantly surprised. When I first started looking at trades a couple months ago the first one I came up with was 23 for 37 + 71. Tonight should be fun.
 

NomarsFool

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So, what do they do at 37? Do they go for Tee Higgins? Or is he N'Keal Harry the sequel?

The could certainly trade down a little, according to the draft compensation calculator, the 37 would be worth the 47 and the 100.

Just looking at teams the Browns own the 41 and the 97 (that would be a steal for the Pats, though) and the Broncos own 46 and the 95 (still also too good). There are tons of other options if the Pats are swapping other picks.

Fromm and Hurts are still out there, but I'd like to see the Pats trade down a little if they go for one of those guys. Same thing for Kmet.
 
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EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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Safest guesses would be (in no particular order):

Kmet (yes please)
Baun (good player, but size and fit issues)
McKinney (really good player, but 6', 201# with 4.63 40 speed isn't ideal)
Epenesa (not convinced his power translates to the NFL, bad testing numbers)
Gross-Matos (1st round player at a position of need, unusual background may scare teams off?)
Blacklock (good interior rusher)
Davidson (better kid than player, I'd rather take James Lynch in round 3 for the same sort of role)
Mims (explosive and productive)
Pittman (smooth, productive, great size)
Josh Jones (1st round player, powerful, LT or RT. Cannon replacement?)
Cleveland (athletic LT prospect, no clear 2020 need for him but a good player)

Kmet would definitely be my top choice. Gross-Matos would be my Plan B.

Caveat: If New England decides to move on from Thuney, an IOL like Cushenberry makes a lot of sense too.
 
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amfox1

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The could certainly trade down a little, according to the draft compensation calculator, the 37 would be worth the 47 and the 100.

Just looking at teams the Browns own the 41 and the 97 (that would be a steal for the Pats, though) and the Broncos own 46 and the 95 (still also too good). There are tons of other options if the Pats are swapping other picks.
37/172 for 41/115 works with CLE
37/100 for 46/83/178 works with DEN

I like 37/71/100 to CHI for 43/50 - CHI didn't have a 1st rounder and doesn't have a pick between 50 and 163
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Kyed said Caserio was on a call late last night and said that he expects to pick a "player or 2 or 3" tonight. They currently have 5 picks.
 

Captaincoop

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There are only a couple of potential edge guys that could help right away in this draft. If that's important to them, they go with one of Baum/Gross-Matos/Epenesa at 37, because it's likely to be the only chance.

Otherwise, a couple of really good OL options may still be on the board.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
1,314
He's probably not going 37, but Josh Uche is my favorite player in the draft. Last year it was Stidham, so I'm hoping to go 2/2.

Uche is very sudden and explosive off the edge. His sack and disruption numbers were excellent, but he does it in a 6'1, 245# body. He has 34" arms which he uses to jolt OTs back (when he's not speed rushing past them instead), and he has really good functional strength. He also played some ILB at Michigan, and he's solid in space. He's a very aggressive, downhill type of player in the NE mold...just in a different body type than they usually go with. At this point, he's not a natural stack LB and he doesn't process as quickly as you'd like inside. He'd be a package player early in his career, but that's obviously fine for a team like NE that lives in different sub-packages.

IDK, maybe BB will have some Bruschi flashbacks with Uche. He's just such a fun player to study.
 

Grogan's NeckRol

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He's probably not going 37, but Josh Uche is my favorite player in the draft. Last year it was Stidham, so I'm hoping to go 2/2.

Uche is very sudden and explosive off the edge. His sack and disruption numbers were excellent, but he does it in a 6'1, 245# body. He has 34" arms which he uses to jolt OTs back (when he's not speed rushing past them instead), and he has really good functional strength. He also played some ILB at Michigan, and he's solid in space. He's a very aggressive, downhill type of player in the NE mold...just in a different body type than they usually go with. At this point, he's not a natural stack LB and he doesn't process as quickly as you'd like inside. He'd be a package player early in his career, but that's obviously fine for a team like NE that lives in different sub-packages.

IDK, maybe BB will have some Bruschi flashbacks with Uche. He's just such a fun player to study.
I went to the Michigan-ND game last year (in the unreal rain). Not a big fan of either team so I had no expectations and found that I could not take my eyes off of Uche. Walked out of there saying to my friends that I hope he ends up on the Pats.
 

BigSoxFan

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I went to the Michigan-ND game last year (in the unreal rain). Not a big fan of either team so I had no expectations and found that I could not take my eyes off of Uche. Walked out of there saying to my friends that I hope he ends up on the Pats.
Uche and Winovich. Release the Wolverine Kraken!
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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If we make a 2nd tradeback, I could see Uche, Okwara, and Greenard as Edge options.

Personally I'd love to come out of the 2nd with something like Pittman and Okwara.
 

bsj

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Dec 6, 2003
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There are only a couple of potential edge guys that could help right away in this draft. If that's important to them, they go with one of Baum/Gross-Matos/Epenesa at 37, because it's likely to be the only chance.

Otherwise, a couple of really good OL options may still be on the board.
I happen to have a personal affinity for Alton Robinson. That said, I could see Bill picking off one of the Alabama guys
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Regarding tonight. While I think the natural inclination might be to draft offense (a WR, Kmet, etc.), I am coming around to the idea that with a shortened offseason, defenses will be so far ahead of offenses. Maybe the best path forward is for the Pats to load up on D and be as awesome as possible on D/ST and fill in some gaps on offense when there is opportunity (e.g., Trautman at 87 or Jefferson / Duvernay at 98, whatever). But if they can get guys like McKinney, Blacklock, Okwara, Harrison, Jennings, etc.. I dunno, could be a good game plan.
 

NomarsFool

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It's hard to ask the defense to score ALL the points though (as the Pats basically did last season :) )
 

dcdrew10

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Regarding tonight. While I think the natural inclination might be to draft offense (a WR, Kmet, etc.), I am coming around to the idea that with a shortened offseason, defenses will be so far ahead of offenses. Maybe the best path forward is for the Pats to load up on D and be as awesome as possible on D/ST and fill in some gaps on offense when there is opportunity (e.g., Trautman at 87 or Jefferson / Duvernay at 98, whatever). But if they can get guys like McKinney, Blacklock, Okwara, Harrison, Jennings, etc.. I dunno, could be a good game plan.
I can see them taking at least one player on each side of the line. They obviously need some edge help, but expecting a rookie to come in a play the 5 technique well is asking a lot of a player not named Richard Seymour. I wonder if they stock up on OL and TE to help protect Stidhum, strengthen the run game, and give him a binky/outlet. I guess a lot depends what they think they can turn Cajuste and Frohldt into, but do the Pats think they can develop a rookie WR along with a second-year QB with almost no experience during a shortened off season? Seems to me that it will be TE, DL/Edge, OL.
 

Cellar-Door

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I can see them taking at least one player on each side of the line. They obviously need some edge help, but expecting a rookie to come in a play the 5 technique well is asking a lot of a player not named Richard Seymour. I wonder if they stock up on OL and TE to help protect Stidhum, strengthen the run game, and give him a binky/outlet. I guess a lot depends what they think they can turn Cajuste and Frohldt into, but do the Pats think they can develop a rookie WR along with a second-year QB with almost no experience during a shortened off season? Seems to me that it will be TE, DL/Edge, OL.
I think this makes the assumption of short term thinking that I don't think Bellichick has been particularly guilty of. He's not drafting rookies for 2020, he's drafting them for 2021-2023 and perhaps beyond.
 

Super Nomario

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I can see them taking at least one player on each side of the line. They obviously need some edge help, but expecting a rookie to come in a play the 5 technique well is asking a lot of a player not named Richard Seymour. I wonder if they stock up on OL and TE to help protect Stidhum, strengthen the run game, and give him a binky/outlet. I guess a lot depends what they think they can turn Cajuste and Frohldt into, but do the Pats think they can develop a rookie WR along with a second-year QB with almost no experience during a shortened off season? Seems to me that it will be TE, DL/Edge, OL.
If WR is tough to integrate, TE is even more difficult. They need to know everything WRs do plus all the run-blocking and pass-protection schemes.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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He's probably not going 37, but Josh Uche is my favorite player in the draft. Last year it was Stidham, so I'm hoping to go 2/2.

Uche is very sudden and explosive off the edge. His sack and disruption numbers were excellent, but he does it in a 6'1, 245# body. He has 34" arms which he uses to jolt OTs back (when he's not speed rushing past them instead), and he has really good functional strength. He also played some ILB at Michigan, and he's solid in space. He's a very aggressive, downhill type of player in the NE mold...just in a different body type than they usually go with. At this point, he's not a natural stack LB and he doesn't process as quickly as you'd like inside. He'd be a package player early in his career, but that's obviously fine for a team like NE that lives in different sub-packages.

IDK, maybe BB will have some Bruschi flashbacks with Uche. He's just such a fun player to study.
So this is my happy face.