What Do You Want For This Patriots Season

BigSoxFan

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Lather. Rinse. Repeat. I honestly feel Stidham is going to be a big surprise. But I don't know that he alone playing above expectations will make that much of a difference to overall team performance, but it will be an important part. I'll be satisfied with 9-7 and a WC.
Stidham looking as good as Jimmy G during the Brady suspension would be the funniest thing ever. I hope to will it into reality.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I wish I had your emotional maturity. I would love to have Stidham come out of the gate hot so that the other fan bases have a collective "Oh, shit!" moment.
Oh, if he does, and they open 3-1, I'll definitely cave and start reveling in the gnashing of teeth... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

E5 Yaz

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If you go to Over the Cap, you will see that the Pats are in great shape after this year. In 2021, they have $110,346,529 in cap space which is third behind the Colts and Chargers, and in 2022, they have the most cap space at $192,355,712.
Thanks, I guess i was getting at not screw things up further with questionable signings or extensions
 

heavyde050

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Stidham looking as good as Jimmy G during the Brady suspension would be the funniest thing ever. I hope to will it into reality.
I hope Stidham's performance gives the team and its fans reason for optimism heading in 2021 as well as some great moments in 2020.
 

tims4wins

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I hope Stidham's performance gives the team and its fans reason for optimism heading in 2021 as well as some great moments in 2020.
This is really the common thread amongst all these posts. We want to see the young guys on both sides of the ball show potential, but most of all we want some hope that 2021 will be a better season
 

Super Nomario

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If you go to Over the Cap, you will see that the Pats are in great shape after this year. In 2021, they have $110,346,529 in cap space which is third behind the Colts and Chargers, and in 2022, they have the most cap space at $192,355,712.
It's debatable how great a shape that is. They have one of the lowest number of players under contract for 2021 (30) and 2022 (13). They also don't have very many quality young players that would be obvious extension candidates.
 

j44thor

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I have one wish, no trading high picks for players unless you are trading with BOB though they don't have anyone outside of Watson worth trading for.

Would be great if we could snag an extra high pick for a vet though. If ever there was a year to punt this is it.
 

snowmanny

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For most of my life my goal for the Pats was to have a playoff game. You’re guaranteed 16 (17 now) Patriots games to watch*. An extra game is a treat.

I still sort of expect them to win the division.
Organization and culture and coaching are really important in the NFL. Quarterbacking is very important but as of this moment the number of definitely very good quarterbacks in the AFC East is zero.

*well, not guaranteed anything. I know.
 

BaseballJones

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It's debatable how great a shape that is. They have one of the lowest number of players under contract for 2021 (30) and 2022 (13). They also don't have very many quality young players that would be obvious extension candidates.
In the movie Apollo 13, Flight Director Gene Krantz, when told of the problems threatening the ship, takes a long drag of his cigarette, takes a deep breath, and asks his team, "What have we got on the spacecraft that's good?"

I feel like asking you that question. You're a terrific poster, but man every time it seems like someone brings up something positive about the team, you immediately come back with a negative. The draft. The WR situation. The cap situation. The O-line. You name it.

So I want to ask you: in your opinion, what about the Patriots is good right now?
 

ShaneTrot

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It's debatable how great a shape that is. They have one of the lowest number of players under contract for 2021 (30) and 2022 (13). They also don't have very many quality young players that would be obvious extension candidates.
I agree with you. But I think there are a few things going on here. They are taking the dead money hit in 2020. Brady was underpaid but he was 11.4% of the cap in 2019. They have a cheap QB now unless something changes. They have a cheap back up QB as well. I think they franchised Thuney because it buys them a year going forward to sign him when they have cap room. They just have had the balls to let their quality free agents walk, they value the comp picks. Their unproductive drafts from 14-17 save them money because there were/are not many guys to sign to second contracts. They really need most of the 12 guys still on the team from the first three rounds of the 18-20 drafts to come through. They have been lucky or smart with undrafted free agents. Jones, Andrews, Adam Butler and JC Jackson are good, young cheap players.
 

tims4wins

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It's debatable how great a shape that is. They have one of the lowest number of players under contract for 2021 (30) and 2022 (13). They also don't have very many quality young players that would be obvious extension candidates.
The 30 is on the low side, but look at the list. The Chargers and Jaguars are definitely in better shape with 43 and 52 players under contract respectively with similar cap space. But as you scroll down the list, you don’t see too many teams in such good position. Miami has 35 players, but $32M less space. Washington has 41, but $25M less space. The average of the top 10 in 2021 cap space have 34 guys signed. It’s not like they’re an outlier. Among the top 10, there are teams with 25, 30, 30, 30, 27, 31, and 35 guys signed. Let’s not overblow this.
 

cornwalls@6

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I'm with a lot of you in regards to having a low-pressure year, where nobody's fretting about HOF, GOATS, revenge on Goodell, legacies, etc. I'm not sure this is even possible anymore, particularly with Bill at the helm, but a quietly going about their business/lay in the weeds and exceed expectations year would be kind of fun.
 

Tetrimus

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All depends on how Stidham looks.

If he's the real deal, I wanna see a 10-6 or better season. Hopefully Harry and the TEs can contribute.

If not, just keep drafting well.
 

Marciano490

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I mean, if Jackson and Mahomes get injured and Stidham is good it’s not impossible we mess around and win the Super Bowl.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Contend for the division title. Anything more than that is gravy. They still have the greatest coach ever in a sport where it means the most.

I can’t understand the posts where people think 2-14 or a full tank job is a possibility. Bill wins 6-8 games with this roster by accident and losing on purpose just isn’t going to happen.
 

Super Nomario

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The 30 is on the low side, but look at the list. The Chargers and Jaguars are definitely in better shape with 43 and 52 players under contract respectively with similar cap space. But as you scroll down the list, you don’t see too many teams in such good position. Miami has 35 players, but $32M less space. Washington has 41, but $25M less space. The average of the top 10 in 2021 cap space have 34 guys signed. It’s not like they’re an outlier. Among the top 10, there are teams with 25, 30, 30, 30, 27, 31, and 35 guys signed. Let’s not overblow this.
I don't disagree with you. I don't think the Patriots' cap situation or players under contract is terribly unusual. That's my point. The Patriots' big cap figure for 2021 / 2022 was presented as being in "great shape." I don't think it's great shape, it's just what the cap looks like when you hardly have any players under contract, and the reason a team hardly has any players under contract a year or two out is because they haven't been extending their younger players, and the reason a team doesn't extend their younger players is generally because their younger players aren't good. I wrote about this a few years back for ITP:

A look at the teams with the most cap space since 2011 (the inception of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement) makes apparent that the teams with the most cap room tend to be the least successful.
I'd rather have less cap space because I drafted good players and re-signed them. There are some advantages the Patriots can leverage out of this situation, if Stidham can be cheap and competent and it they roll over cap space and use it smartly. They need to start hitting on some draft picks.

I feel like asking you that question. You're a terrific poster, but man every time it seems like someone brings up something positive about the team, you immediately come back with a negative. The draft. The WR situation. The cap situation. The O-line. You name it.

So I want to ask you: in your opinion, what about the Patriots is good right now?
Did I criticize the OL? I think that's pretty good, definitely better than most (assuming Thuney and Andrews or back). That and the secondary, of course, which is still terrific. And we still have Belichick and McDaniels.

I agree with you. But I think there are a few things going on here. They are taking the dead money hit in 2020. Brady was underpaid but he was 11.4% of the cap in 2019. They have a cheap QB now unless something changes. They have a cheap back up QB as well. I think they franchised Thuney because it buys them a year going forward to sign him when they have cap room. They just have had the balls to let their quality free agents walk, they value the comp picks. Their unproductive drafts from 14-17 save them money because there were/are not many guys to sign to second contracts. They really need most of the 12 guys still on the team from the first three rounds of the 18-20 drafts to come through. They have been lucky or smart with undrafted free agents. Jones, Andrews, Adam Butler and JC Jackson are good, young cheap players.
The bolded is the crux of it and nothing else really matters with this team right now, other than Stidham. The interesting thing is that, in contrast to almost every other offseason, they've brought in very little competition for their young players. They're going to sink or swim with youth.
 

BaseballJones

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Did I criticize the OL? I think that's pretty good, definitely better than most (assuming Thuney and Andrews or back). That and the secondary, of course, which is still terrific. And we still have Belichick and McDaniels.
Yeah I believe you did criticize the OL as not having depth and being overly optimistic about the quality. But ok, you think it's pretty good, the secondary good, and BB/McD are good.

That's it, I guess. Here's what I think is good on the team:

1. Ownership is tremendous.
2. Best HC in football history.
3. Elite OC.
4. Assuming health, outstanding offensive line, one of the best in football.
5. Good, deep, versatile RB group.
6. Best secondary in football.
7. Elite punter and special teams.
8. Improved speed and athleticism.

I also think the WR group is underrated, and I think they upgraded the TE position considerably with the draft picks.

Long story short, I think there's a *lot* to like about this team. Might be undermined by the QB situation, might not. We shall see.
 

Super Nomario

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Yeah I believe you did criticize the OL as not having depth and being overly optimistic about the quality. But ok, you think it's pretty good, the secondary good, and BB/McD are good.
Depth is an issue on the OL, at least proven depth. But the starting five is definitely better than most teams are running out there.

That's it, I guess. Here's what I think is good on the team:

1. Ownership is tremendous.
2. Best HC in football history.
3. Elite OC.
4. Assuming health, outstanding offensive line, one of the best in football.
5. Good, deep, versatile RB group.
6. Best secondary in football.
7. Elite punter and special teams.
8. Improved speed and athleticism.
I mostly agree but I think you're overselling almost all of this. It's a good offensive line. Is it "outstanding, one of the best in football?" Is Bailey truly an "elite" punter or simply very good? If the running backs are so good and the offensive line is so outstanding, how did they finish 25th in yards per carry in 2019?

I also think the WR group is underrated, and I think they upgraded the TE position considerably with the draft picks.
I'm not with you on WR. I really like both Asiasi and Keene (they were all over my TE superlatives column), but that's a tough position to come in and make an impact right away, with all the diverse responsibilities in route-running, run blocking, and pass protection. So I expect any 2020 upgrade will be mild and the real gains will be in 2021 and on.
 

BaseballJones

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Depth is an issue on the OL, at least proven depth. But the starting five is definitely better than most teams are running out there.
They are excellent when healthy.

I mostly agree but I think you're overselling almost all of this. It's a good offensive line. Is it "outstanding, one of the best in football?"
Yes it is.

Is Bailey truly an "elite" punter or simply very good?
2nd in the NFL in punts inside the 20. Bailey and the punt coverage only allowed 6.3 yards per return last year. 8th in the NFL in punts inside the 20 per # of punts. He's really really good. I guess "really really good" or "excellent" may be better than "elite", but my god that's just picking nits.

If the running backs are so good and the offensive line is so outstanding, how did they finish 25th in yards per carry in 2019?
You know the answer to that. For most of the year they were without a legit blocking back. Their TEs suck at blocking. Edelman was playing banged up and Harry - a good blocker - missed half the year. Cannon and Mason were banged up, and Wynn missed the first half of the year. Andrews missed the entire year.

Last 5 games of the year (plus playoffs):

vs Hou: 29-145 (5.0)
vs KC: 22-94 (4.3)
vs Cin: 32-175 (5.5)
vs Buf: 35-143 (4.1)
vs Mia: 27-135 (5.0)
vs Ten: 22-98 (4.5)
TOT: 167-790 (4.7)

4.7 would have put them 6th in the NFL in yards per carry if that was over a whole season. And 131.7 yards per game would have been good for 8th.

Having a real FB and better blocking TEs and better OL health will do wonders for this team.

I'm not with you on WR. I really like both Asiasi and Keene (they were all over my TE superlatives column), but that's a tough position to come in and make an impact right away, with all the diverse responsibilities in route-running, run blocking, and pass protection. So I expect any 2020 upgrade will be mild and the real gains will be in 2021 and on.
Maybe. But it'll still be an improvement over last year.
 

Super Nomario

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You know the answer to that. For most of the year they were without a legit blocking back. Their TEs suck at blocking. Edelman was playing banged up and Harry - a good blocker - missed half the year. Cannon and Mason were banged up, and Wynn missed the first half of the year. Andrews missed the entire year.
And in 2018, with Develin healthy, and Trent Brown all year, and a pair of excellent blocking TE in Gronk and Dwayne Allen, they finished ... 20th in the NFL in YPC.

Last 5 games of the year (plus playoffs):

4.7 would have put them 6th in the NFL in yards per carry if that was over a whole season. And 131.7 yards per game would have been good for 8th.
Arbitrary end point.
 

DJnVa

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I can’t understand the posts where people think 2-14 or a full tank job is a possibility. Bill wins 6-8 games with this roster by accident and losing on purpose just isn’t going to happen.
Can someone point to a post that actually says they think it's a possibility that BB tanks?

People talk about it in passing, but who has really said BB would tank?
 

Ralphwiggum

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Can someone point to a post that actually says they think it's a possibility that BB tanks?

People talk about it in passing, but who has really said BB would tank?
Depends on whether people are answering based on what they think will happen or what they want to happen. I was reading the thread as more what people think. Some said 2-14 or be in the running for Lawrence. I can kind of see wanting that but I can’t see it actually happening.
 

BaseballJones

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And in 2018, with Develin healthy, and Trent Brown all year, and a pair of excellent blocking TE in Gronk and Dwayne Allen, they finished ... 20th in the NFL in YPC.


Arbitrary end point.
Is it arbitrary though? They lost their FBs and played numerous games without one. Then in the Philly game, they used Roberts at FB on seven snaps. Just learning the position. Four FB snaps against the Eagles the next week. 10 times at FB against Cincy and 21 times at FB against Buffalo. The latter part of the season, Roberts was used a lot more at FB when they had gone numerous games without one.

Also, Cannon was recovering from an illness vs. the Cowboys and was just returning to health as they hit the stretch run. Isaiah Wynn returned from injury (hadn't played since week 2) in the Dallas game. Got his feet under him, and then played every offensive snap the rest of the year.

Sorry, Debbie Downer isn't working here. When they finally got their OL and FB situation squared away, they ran the ball VERY well the last six games of the season.
 

E5 Yaz

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Sorry, Debbie Downer isn't working here.
You can disagree with his perspective all you want without resorting to this sort of childishness.

He's not a "Downer" at all. He's taking a pragmatic approach, without resorting to extremes to describe position groups or predict results for individuals.

As the Patriots go through this transition, we need more of that sort of posting
 

BigSoxFan

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How many teams in the NFL have a better RB situation than the Patriots? Has to be at least 15, no?
Hard to say. There are certainly 15 better lead backs than Michel but White/Burkhead are very good at their roles. We have no idea what Damien Harris is capable of. So, it’s basically an indictment on Michel but if we can ever get 2018 Michel back, I think we’d all be quite pleased. I’m not very bullish on Michel’s future at the moment but not completely writing him off either.
 

BaseballJones

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How many teams in the NFL have a better RB situation than the Patriots? Has to be at least 15, no?
I don’t know the exact number, but quite a few for sure. Nobody is claiming that the Patriots’ RB group is among the league’s best.
 

The Social Chair

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Develop the young players and be more exciting on offense. I don't have a lot of expectations for wins. The roster right now isn't very talented outside the secondary.

The Pats don't have to have the worst record in the league to be in a position to draft Lawrence. They just need to have less wins than the Jaugars. Not too difficult with New England's schedule.
 

nattysez

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Here's what's going to drive me crazy: looking at their schedule (more below), I think it's going to take a minor miracle for them to go 9-7. And if they go 8-8 or 7-9, everyone's going to go all-in on the tanking theory even though it's nonsense and going 7-9 is not "tanking." All I want is for Stidham to grow and no one to suffer any major injuries. Anything else is gravy.

Likely Ls: SF, BAL, @KC, @SEA
Likely Ws: NYJ, @NYJ, DEN

9-7 means they can lose only 3 of the following games:

HOME
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals

ROAD
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams

Can BB sufficiently befuddle Carr and Kyler to win those two games at home? Can the Pats handle the LA teams (one in a slow decline and one with old friend Tyrod Taylor at QB) away? Can they steal a win @BUF or @MIA or at least beat both of them in Foxboro? It should be a very compelling season.
 
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nighthob

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Here's what's going to drive me crazy: looking at their schedule (more below), I think it's going to take a minor miracle for them to go 9-7. And if they go 8-8 or 7-9, everyone's going to go all-in on the tanking theory even though it's nonsense and going 7-9 is not "tanking." All I want is for Stidham to grow and no one to suffer any major injuries. Anything else is gravy.

Likely Ls: SF, BAL, @KC, @SEA
Likely Ws: NYJ, @NYJ, DEN

9-7 means they can only lose 3 of the following games:

HOME
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals

ROAD
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
They’ll be doing well if they win three of those games.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t see how @NYJ is a likely win. I would put every road division game as a likely L and would be pleased to take even one of them and hope to hold serve at home.
 

luckiestman

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nighthob

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I don’t see how @NYJ is a likely win. I would put every road division game as a likely L and would be pleased to take even one of them and hope to hold serve at home.
I expect them to beat the Jets on the road, because, hey, they’re the Jests. But, Jesus, when you look at those other nine games, they’ll be lucky to get one of those road games into the win column. And amongst the home games two of those are sure losses and the other two are toss-ups.