What does 2023 look like?

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure the Rays have a better system than the Sox but they have also done a much better job at identifying, acquiring, and developing major league depth. Jason Adam, Matt Wisler, Jeffrey Springs, Andrew Kittredge, Colin Poche, Brooks Raley, Ralph Garza, Pete Fairbanks are the kinds of players who anyone could have acquired for next to nothing and it’s the presence of these kinds of pitchers that have allowed them to succeed despite the injuries; and the absence of these kinds of guys on the Sox has the Sox in last.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Can Boston sell high on players while being expected to compete for a title? I know it works for the Rays but the Sox would be called cheap. Although, I guess they have been doing it anyway. The results haven't been very good, yet.

If they sell high on the right guys, it can (certainly doing it with Benintendis and Renfroes rather than Bettses would be preferable). I think part of how the Rays "get away" with selling high is that they usually have someone to plug into the vacated spot, which the Sox haven't had yet in the Bloom era. That, and an uncanny ability to trade a guy(s) right before their careers take a downward turn. Trading Archer for Baz, Glasnow, and Meadows was a boon by itself, but having Archer further shit the bed in Pittsburgh just makes them look that much better.

 

[BravesField]

Who are you quoting here?

I’m not sure what you mean by this. You think Bloom is instructed to emulate the Tampa model while bolstered by Boston’s financial assets, but you’re also not convinced that he’s going to spend?

I'm only expressing an opinion on one possible scenario. So many posters here are expressing an opinion that the sox are going to spend up to and some, beyond, like 270M payroll for 2023. It's possible that this is not going to happen.

I don't know what Blooms instructions are any more than anyone else. What I do know is the Tampa model is a successful model. Why not emulate it? How is it that the Rays can develop and pump out of their system impact ballplayers year in and year out.

I am of the opinion that the Sox are not going to spend a lot this off season.

Opinion, no more no less.....

 

[nvalvo]

Another year of Franchy and Dalbec together. I think at least one should/must go. With Casas and Hosmer is there a need for either of them?

The upgrade from Dalbec's career .753 OPS to Hosmer's .764 is really going to stabilize our 1B situation.

I don't want to belabor the point since we've been over it in like every single thread, but I really doubt Hosmer is still here Opening Day 2023.

 

[Archer1979]

If they sell high on the right guys, it can (certainly doing it with Benintendis and Renfroes rather than Bettses would be preferable). I think part of how the Rays "get away" with selling high is that they usually have someone to plug into the vacated spot, which the Sox haven't had yet in the Bloom era. That, and an uncanny ability to trade a guy(s) right before their careers take a downward turn. Trading Archer for Baz, Glasnow, and Meadows was a boon by itself, but having Archer further shit the bed in Pittsburgh just makes them look that much better.

Is it really that or is it more that they trade guys right before they're about to hit a big payday? They do well to lock in the younger guys into contracts which help keep them cost effective in their arb years, but once the big payday starts to loom, they trade high and get a good return to refuel their farm system. The reason that they can do this is that, as you say, they have a replacement all set to go in the minors. The guys that they get end up getting back in trades end up being the next round in the farm, rinse and repeat.

That won't necessarily work with the Sox as:

1) They aren't that deep organizationally so the drop off from X, for example, to the next available player is substantial. Even in a year such as this, they were still in it at the trading deadline. Trading someone like X would have been basically raising the white flag.

2) They have a hard time trading their superstars because we won't let them (see Lester, Jon and Betts, Mookie for examples of the public outcry). Tampa doesn't have the fan base like Boston does. They barely care about laundry. Individual players are fungible assets to them.

3) Trading away good to great players to get blue-chip prospects is the fuel for the farm system engine. If you can't trade the superstars, the only way to get those types of prospects is draft and development. Getting Varitek and Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb is the very rare exception, but some of us like to think this is the goal of every trade. Most trades are value for comparable value just in a different position.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is it really that or is it more that they trade guys right before they're about to hit a big payday? They do well to lock in the younger guys into contracts which help keep them cost effective in their arb years, but once the big payday starts to loom, they trade high and get a good return to refuel their farm system. The reason that they can do this is that, as you say, they have a replacement all set to go in the minors. The guys that they get end up getting back in trades end up being the next round in the farm, rinse and repeat.

That won't necessarily work with the Sox as:

1) They aren't that deep organizationally so the drop off from X, for example, to the next available player is substantial. Even in a year such as this, they were still in it at the trading deadline. Trading someone like X would have been basically raising the white flag.

2) They have a hard time trading their superstars because we won't let them (see Lester, Jon and Betts, Mookie for examples of the public outcry). Tampa doesn't have the fan base like Boston does. They barely care about laundry. Individual players are fungible assets to them.

3) Trading away good to great players to get blue-chip prospects is the fuel for the farm system engine. If you can't trade the superstars, the only way to get those types of prospects is draft and development. Getting Varitek and Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb is the very rare exception, but some of us like to think this is the goal of every trade. Most trades are value for comparable value just in a different position.

Oh, the Rays certainly trade guys just as their reaching the point of being "expensive". That's not in question. I was mostly just referring to the knack for those about-to-be-expensive players to never quite return to whatever heights they experienced with the Rays. Archer was already in decline when he was traded (which makes the return he yielded that much more remarkable) but continued to get worse after the deal as well. Basically, the Rays seem to always "win" these trades even when the return for a player is pretty middling.

To your point #1, this whole Rays tangent started with someone asking how the Rays are able to survive the injuries they've had, and it's definitely the depth of the organization. Whether they're trading someone away or putting someone on the IL, they have a "next man up" depth that the Sox currently lack. The Sox definitely need to (continue to) work on that.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Oh, the Rays certainly trade guys just as their reaching the point of being "expensive". That's not in question. I was mostly just referring to the knack for those about-to-be-expensive players to never quite return to whatever heights they experienced with the Rays. Archer was already in decline when he was traded (which makes the return he yielded that much more remarkable) but continued to get worse after the deal as well. Basically, the Rays seem to always "win" these trades even when the return for a player is pretty middling.

To your point #1, this whole Rays tangent started with someone asking how the Rays are able to survive the injuries they've had, and it's definitely the depth of the organization. Whether they're trading someone away or putting someone on the IL, they have a "next man up" depth that the Sox currently lack. The Sox definitely need to (continue to) work on that.

Isn't that the case with most players? They are more productive in their cost controlled years and once they hit FA, are on the downside of their career. The Rays have a build in excuse to avoid the ineffective FA market.

 

[mikcou]

Isn't that the case with most players? They are more productive in their cost controlled years and once they hit FA, are on the downside of their career. The Rays have a build in excuse to avoid the ineffective FA market.

Yeah, most players are coming up at 24/25/26 so they are generally approaching the downside of their careers as the approach FA (30+). Archer was 29 when TB traded him - injuries are what did him in, but more injuries in your 30s are to be expected.

Guys approaching FA at 25/26 are the exception, but they also go at a premium.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Ward are all interesting arms that could probably help someone's bullpen.

Ward pitched tonight and went 5.0 ip, 5 hits, 2r/1er, 1bb/10k. 1 HRA. 9 swinging strike outs.
Last game: 5.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/10k. 7 swinging strike outs.
Combined 10 ip, 8 hits, 3r/2er, 2bb/20k, 1 HRA. 16 swinging strike outs. 39 batters faced.

If he finishes the year strong, he's all but a lock to be on the 40 considering he's already in AA.

edit: wow, he's going out for the 6th inning.
double edit: 1 pitch, 1 out. Replaced. He was at 88 pitches going into the 6th. Weird.

 

[nighthob]

I think, right or wrong, that a big part of how Bloom is viewed by the fan base is the Mookie trade. I am not going to re-litigate whether they should have traded him or not but the return, thus far, looks to be pretty bad.
Verdugo is a league average player and it seems like he’s the best piece they got. Downs has been a flop, who knows with Wong.

The Dodgers were absolutely firm that one year of Mookie wasn’t worth any more than the $50 million they were paying for it. They were willing to let Boston have a mediocre prospect that was superfluous (Verdugo), a UT/backup catching prospect, and a thirtysomething end of the rotation starter (Kenta Maeda) and that was it. They eventually moved Maeda for a slider pitcher with a bad elbow to give Boston more prospects. They just weren’t willing to budge much and fought tooth and nail to avoid including another superfluous prospect. And as time showed, that second/third tier prospect just wasn’t good enough to make it (the year’s vacay didn’t help).

And there were no other trade partners on the horizon. I remember joking at the time that for the prospect package LA should be eating Sale’s contract instead. Hopefully when they send Devers and Sale to LA they can get an actual first tier prospect back.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The Dodgers were absolutely firm that one year of Mookie wasn’t worth any more than the $50 million they were paying for it. They were willing to let Boston have a mediocre prospect that was superfluous (Verdugo), a UT/backup catching prospect, and a thirtysomething end of the rotation starter (Kenta Maeda) and that was it. They eventually moved Maeda for a slider pitcher with a bad elbow to give Boston more prospects. They just weren’t willing to budge much and fought tooth and nail to avoid including another superfluous prospect. And as time showed, that second/third tier prospect just wasn’t good enough to make it (the year’s vacay didn’t help).

And there were no other trade partners on the horizon. I remember joking at the time that for the prospect package LA should be eating Sale’s contract instead. Hopefully when they send Devers and Sale to LA they can get an actual first tier prospect back.

Deal would look a little better if they just kept Brusdar Graterol over Jeter Downs. Not a ton better, but better.

 

[chawson]

This isn't perfect, but here's a crack at what seems possible for next year. Some of the numbers are my WAG but I think they are probably all kind of close. I'd feel like this team could contend.

1B	Casas, Triston	$700,000
1B	Hosmer, Eric	$250,000
2M	Story, Trevor	$20,000,000
MI	Arroyo, Christian	$2,500,000
SS	Big Time SS (6 years)	$25,000,000
3B	Devers, Rafael (8 years)	$28,000,000
OF	Verdugo, Alex	$5,000,000
OF	Cordero, Franchy	$2,000,000
OF	Hernandez, Kike (1 year)	$8,000,000
OF	Nimmo, Brandon (5 years)	$18,000,000
C	McGuire, Reese	$1,500,000
C	Wong, Connor	$700,000
DH	Dalbec, Bobby	$714,000
DH/OF	Pham, Tommy (1 year)	$4,000,000
SP	Sale, Chris	$24,172,484
SP	Pivetta, Nick	$4,000,000
SO	Bello, Brayan	$700,000
SO	Rodon, Carlos (5 years)	$25,000,000
SP	Eovaldi, Nate (2 years)	$15,000,000
SP	Wacha, Michael (3 years)	$11,000,000
RP	Barnes, Matt	$8,125,000
RP	Houck, Tanner	$716,000
RP	Whitlock, Garrett	$1,200,000
RP	Taylor, Josh	$1,025,000
RP	Davis, Austin	$720,000
RP	Bullpen Arm	$6,000,000
Total	$214,022,484

I like the way you formatted this. I think you’re right we roll with Wong/McGuire. I’d also love to sign Rodón, and/or keep Nate and Wacha. (Heads up about Austin Davis though, he’s already gone.)

On the outfield stuff, I think there’s little chance Kiké signs a one-year make-good contract here only to back up a guy like Nimmo, be a fourth outfielder or a short-side platoon guy with Cordero.

About Nimmo, I’m not a fan. Personally, I’m so done with low-power lefty hitters in the Boston outfield. It’s one thing to play a league average outfielder like Benintendi or Verdugo when you’re paying him pre-arb; it’s another when you’re paying him market rate.

Look at Nimmo’s spray chart: he hits almost nothing the opposite way, and it’s a general rule of thumb that successful Sox LHBs either have a lot of power (that right field is big) or know how to use the left field wall. He doesn’t. He also hits a ton of grounders, and we already have two of the most groundball-hitting players in MLB in Hosmer and Verdugo. Nimmo’s best quality, his BB% rate, has also gotten worse this year. I’m also pretty sure he’s still unvaccinated.

Kiké is now hitting .283/.328/.444 since his return, plays good defense and is beloved in the clubhouse. I’d much prefer to keep him around a year or two until Rafaela, Jimenez or Bleis are ready over a big deal for Nimmo.

 

[scottyno]

The Dodgers were absolutely firm that one year of Mookie wasn’t worth any more than the $50 million they were paying for it. They were willing to let Boston have a mediocre prospect that was superfluous (Verdugo), a UT/backup catching prospect, and a thirtysomething end of the rotation starter (Kenta Maeda) and that was it. They eventually moved Maeda for a slider pitcher with a bad elbow to give Boston more prospects. They just weren’t willing to budge much and fought tooth and nail to avoid including another superfluous prospect. And as time showed, that second/third tier prospect just wasn’t good enough to make it (the year’s vacay didn’t help).

How exactly was Verdugo a mediocre prospect? He was at minimum a top 40 prospect before having a very good rookie season (3 different major rankings had him 35, 35, 19). Sure he wasn't too useful to the Dodgers, but he was far from mediocre at the time of the trade.

 

[nighthob]

How exactly was Verdugo a mediocre prospect? He was at minimum a top 40 prospect before having a very good rookie season (3 different major rankings had him 35, 35, 19). Sure he wasn't too useful to the Dodgers, but he was far from mediocre at the time of the trade.

He looked like a worldbeater in A ball. And people certainly expected his tools to translate. But his AAA line in the PCL wasn’t exactly impressive. He wasn’t very good defensively anywhere except LF, and he wasn’t much of a power hitter. Not in the minors and not in LA. He was the definition of a mediocre prospect. And completely unnecessary to the Dodgers with Betts incoming. But rest assured that if the Dodgers truly needed him, or thought he was any good, they would have insisted on Boston taking some other potential 4th OF with limited defensive utility instead.

 

[scottyno]

He looked like a worldbeater in A ball. And people certainly expected his tools to translate. But his AAA line in the PCL wasn’t exactly impressive. He wasn’t very good defensively anywhere except LF, and he wasn’t much of a power hitter. Not in the minors and not in LA. He was the definition of a mediocre prospect. And completely unnecessary to the Dodgers with Betts incoming. But rest assured that if the Dodgers truly needed him, or thought he was any good, they would have insisted on Boston taking some other potential 4th OF with limited defensive utility instead.

Mediocre prospects aren't ranked in the 30s or better in prospect rankings. They also don't typically follow up that high ranking by putting up a 2-3 war (depending on which war you use) rookie season in only 106 games followed by an even better 2020 (granted a shortened season).

He also put up a +6 DRS in 625 innings between RF and CF with the Dodgers in 2019, so saying he wasn't very good defensively besides LF at the time of the trade is also very wrong.

And when he was 22 in AAA slashing 329/391/472 he was the best hitter on a team full of guys 3-5 years older than him, so not sure how that isn't impressive.

He hasn't progessed like we would have hoped after 2020, but calling him a potential 4th outfielder with limited defensive utility at the time of the trade is an absolute joke.

 

[nighthob]

Mediocre prospects aren't ranked in the 30s or better in prospect rankings. They also don't typically follow up that high ranking by putting up a 2-3 war (depending on whiich war you use) rookie season in only 106 games followed by an even better 2020 (granted a shortened season).

The problem is that he shouldn't have been in the 30s based on actual minor league performance. He was a LF only prospect that couldn't even hit for power in the PCL. If I were to show you his minor league numbers and ask you what sort of major league player that guy would be you'd shrug and say "averagish at best". And you'd be completely right. The scout press was taken in by the tools, but they should have been looking at the in game performance. It just wasn't more than adequate at any level.

And that's the point, after all that time the Dodgers knew that what he was was a 4th OF prospect that could only play LF. And it was only guys like that they were willing to hand over while paying $50 million for one year of Betts.

 

[nighthob]

Deal would look a little better if they just kept Brusdar Graterol over Jeter Downs. Not a ton better, but better.

I think we can all agree that the only way the trade would have worked out is if they sent the Dodger "haul" out to a small market team in exchange for some guy about to get expensive. But weird covid year screwed up even that by benching Downs and Wong for the season.

 

[scottyno]

The problem is that he shouldn't have been in the 30s based on actual minor league performance. He was a LF only prospect that couldn't even hit for power in the PCL. If I were to show you his minor league numbers and ask you what sort of major league player that guy would be you'd shrug and say "averagish at best". And you'd be completely right. The scout press was taken in by the tools, but they should have been looking at the in game performance. It just wasn't more than adequate at any level.

And that's the point, after all that time the Dodgers knew that what he was was a 4th OF prospect that could only play LF. And it was only guys like that they were willing to hand over while paying $50 million for one year of Betts.

So the Dodgers who were the preseason favorite to win the NL and who "knew he was a 4th OF prospect who could only play LF:

- played him 128 innings in left, 152 in right, and 476 in center.
-Had him start the majority of games until he went down with his injury.

Either they're really really stupid or they had a vastly different interpretation of his skills than you seem to think they did

Also, his power wasn't bad, he hit 10 HRs in 91 games, only 1 player on that team hit over 11, btw that team finished in 1st place so they weren't full of awful players or anything.

He followed that up by hitting 12 in 377 PAs as a rookie, which again, isn't terrible when you're a good average hitter and a good defensive player. Over a full season that major league power would have put him 5th or 6th on the Dodgers, who had one of the best lineups in baseball with a bunch of crushers.

 

[OCD SS]

Oh good, we’re relitigating the Mookie trade.

Can we please remember that it was 1 year of Mookie and 3 yrs/ $40 M-whatever for David Price (and then he opted out of the 2020 season) when calculating hypothetical returns and what the Sox should've done? As I recall the only other team that was even reported to be serious was the Padres, so the Sox were victims of low demand in a free market (and I'm not sure any of the prospective Padres packages have turned out any better). I don't see how anyone can complain that the Sox didn't get enough for a 60 game season of Mookie.

As to what this portends for the Sox in 2023, I'm pretty sure Mookie isn't going to be on the team and Verdugo is. Given the development path for catchers and dearth of talent at that position in MLB, I'm happy enough with Wong being on the team. I don't see the Sox spending like crazy this offseason because the FA market looks fairly weak at areas we want to improve at (SS) so I don't see a lot of places for Bloom to leverage excess value in a deal.

I think they try and use 2023 to sneak under the cap while competing for a wild card spot, and will go over if the right deal presents itself, or if the team is making a push through the season...

 

[mikcou]

So the Dodgers who were the preseason favorite to win the NL and who "knew he was a 4th OF prospect who could only play LF:

- played him 128 innings in left, 152 in right, and 476 in center.
-Had him start the majority of games until he went down with his injury.

Either they're really really stupid or they had a vastly different interpretation of his skills than you seem to think they did

Also, his power wasn't bad, he hit 10 HRs in 91 games, only 1 player on that team hit over 11, btw that team finished in 1st place so they weren't full of awful players or anything.

He followed that up by hitting 12 in 377 PAs as a rookie, which again, isn't terrible when you're a good average hitter and a good defensive player. Over a full season that major league power would have put him 5th or 6th on the Dodgers, who had one of the best lineups in baseball with a bunch of crushers.

I dont think that the understanding of Verdugo at the time was a 4th OF ceiling, but there was a clear reason that the Dodgers were trading him - he did not have a high ceiling. No one after the 2019 season thought Verdugo was the equivalent of a top 30 prospect. There was a hope when he was in the minors that he could turn some of his raw power into in game production - it just never happened. Placing his home runs in context of other minor leaguers on the same team isnt particulalry relevant - 11 HRs in the PCL (a league that is the most power friendly minor league around) is a clear indication of what his in game power was at the time - well below average. Fangraphs keeps their minor league assessments of players up - he had a 40 for in game power.

His fringe power and limited defense were pretty clearly displayed through a full major league season. Those types can have nice careers if they have 70 hit tools, Verdugo doesnt so what you end up with is a fringe average player who doesnt have a clear way to get better.

He's not a great fit for the Sox - his arm plays in RF, but he doesnt have the range to play there consistently. He'd probably be fine in most RFs though. The hope at the time was always that he'd be able to be a solid defender in right - that would have been a solid regular type of player. It just didnt work out and he doesnt have the bat to carry him in left.

All that to say the consensus at the tiem wasn't a 4th OF (although the Dodgers very well may have had that assessment of him), but people weren't thinking he had a good chance to be a solid 1st division starter either - there were pretty significant questions about both the power and what his defense looked like. The Dodgers of all teams dont have a ton of interest in cheap guys who are fringe starters.

 

[BravesField]

2) They have a hard time trading their superstars because we won't let them (see Lester, Jon and Betts, Mookie for examples of the public outcry). Tampa doesn't have the fan base like Boston does. They barely care about laundry. Individual players are fungible assets to them.

I'm not a Football fan at all, but doesn't Bellichik, (I know I spelled it wrong), do this every year? He moves important pieces from a super bowl team and gets good value in return. New England fans don't seem to go bonkers when he does this.

 

[nighthob]

Oh good, we’re relitigating the Mookie trade.

Can we please remember that it was 1 year of Mookie and 3 yrs/ $40 M-whatever for David Price (and then he opted out of the 2020 season) when calculating hypothetical returns and what the Sox should've done? As I recall the only other team that was even reported to be serious was the Padres, so the Sox were victims of low demand in a free market (and I'm not sure any of the prospective Padres packages have turned out any better). I don't see how anyone can complain that the Sox didn't get enough for a 60 game season of Mookie.

That was exactly my point, the Dodgers weren’t willing to give up anything of value beyond the roughly $50 million in cash that they paid for one season of Mookie. That’s why the best piece was an averagish LF.

I think they try and use 2023 to sneak under the cap while competing for a wild card spot, and will go over if the right deal presents itself, or if the team is making a push through the season...

I agree with this in general terms, they were snakebitten by bad luck with the entire pitching staff going down at once. And the free agent market is weak, so they’re likely to dumpster dive to fill holes, re-sign Wacha, and hope that they get at least one full season of starts from Paxton and Sale combined. If Sale/Paxton can combine for 45 starts this team is absolutely a wild card contender (assuming that they can keep Wacha and Bello continues to improve).

 

[walt in maryland]

Mediocre prospects aren't ranked in the 30s or better in prospect rankings. They also don't typically follow up that high ranking by putting up a 2-3 war (depending on which war you use) rookie season in only 106 games followed by an even better 2020 (granted a shortened season).

He also put up a +6 DRS in 625 innings between RF and CF with the Dodgers in 2019, so saying he wasn't very good defensively besides LF at the time of the trade is also very wrong.

And when he was 22 in AAA slashing 329/391/472 he was the best hitter on a team full of guys 3-5 years older than him, so not sure how that isn't impressive.

He hasn't progessed like we would have hoped after 2020, but calling him a potential 4th outfielder with limited defensive utility at the time of the trade is an absolute joke.

Am I the only one who doesn't think the Sox did all that poorly in the Mookie trade? Verdugo is a solid, low-cost MLB regular. Wong looks like a league-average backup catcher. Downs has been disappointing, but is still young enough and talented enough to have some sort of a major-league career. Meanwhile, Betts was unsigned when the Sox traded him, with one year left. And people forget that the Sox were able to shed a significant chunk of Price's bloated contract. The prospect return would have been greater without Price in the deal.

 

[Archer1979]

I'm not a Football fan at all, but doesn't Bellichik, (I know I spelled it wrong), do this every year? He moves important pieces from a super bowl team and gets good value in return. New England fans don't seem to go bonkers when he does this.

Football is a little different as the rosters are much bigger and not every player is showcased throughout the game. For example, each batter gets an at bat where a lot of football players don't get their names called out other than than when the networks announce the starting lineups. In other words, baseball has a greater focus on the individual player so there is more of a connection between the fanbase and the player.

That said, yes. Coach Bill (that's how I avoid misspelling his last name) does that a lot with great success and little public disgust. Meanwhile, some of us are still arguing whether or not the Sox should have made a better run to keep Ellsbury.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Football is a little different as the rosters are much bigger and not every player is showcased throughout the game. For example, each batter gets an at bat where a lot of football players don't get their names called out other than than when the networks announce the starting lineups. In other words, baseball has a greater focus on the individual player so there is more of a connection between the fanbase and the player.

That said, yes. Coach Bill (that's how I avoid misspelling his last name) does that a lot with great success and little public disgust. Meanwhile, some of us are still arguing whether or not the Sox should have made a better run to keep Ellsbury.

There's also a hard salary cap in football that Belichick can't exceed, so fans are generally more understanding about moves to fit everyone in under the cap and staying competitive. MLB has a soft cap at best, so a lot of fans seem to resent teams that arguably have the resources to exceed it but choose not to (at least not consistently).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The problem is that he shouldn't have been in the 30s based on actual minor league performance. He was a LF only prospect that couldn't even hit for power in the PCL. If I were to show you his minor league numbers and ask you what sort of major league player that guy would be you'd shrug and say "averagish at best". And you'd be completely right. The scout press was taken in by the tools, but they should have been looking at the in game performance. It just wasn't more than adequate at any level.

And that's the point, after all that time the Dodgers knew that what he was was a 4th OF prospect that could only play LF. And it was only guys like that they were willing to hand over while paying $50 million for one year of Betts.

All the pro scouts are wrong and you are right. Give me a break.

I'm pretty sure an "average OF" would be a top 50 prospect anyway.

Lets ignore this graph. People really, really undervalue or overvalue prospects. There is never an in between. Yeah, Verdugo is performing better then the average prospect ranked in the 30s. But don't let that change your narrative.

 

[snowmanny]

The Dodgers were absolutely firm that one year of Mookie wasn’t worth any more than the $50 million they were paying for it…etc…

And there were no other trade partners on the horizon.

There were a lot of rumors about the Padres, including supposed packages and negotiations about how much of the Wil Myers contract San Diego would eat.

 

[Max Power]

The pushback is in describing Verdugo as a 4th outfielder. He might be that on the Dodgers who field MVP candidates at every position, but an average outfielder is a perfectly reasonable 6 or 7th best player on a championship team.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Verdugo has put up an .860 OPS in the second half this season. I don’t know care if it’s via HR’s or doubles but if he can find consistency from April through September in LF with average defense then he’s a fantastic part of a lineup since he should be in the bottom half 5-9 somewhere. At best the 4th best hitter on the team, more likely the 5th best.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

BA had Rafaela in their mid season top 100 and he projects as a super sub. Not even a regular.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There were a lot of rumors about the Padres, including supposed packages and negotiations about how much of the Wil Myers contract San Diego would eat.

IIRC, the Padres talk didn't include taking Price with Betts, which is a very important factor in evaluating the deal. Taking Myers was about enhancing the prospect package that came with him. Whatever benefit the Pads would be getting by moving him and his contract would have been negated by Price and his contract.

The pushback is in describing Verdugo as a 4th outfielder. He might be that on the Dodgers who field MVP candidates at every position, but an average outfielder is a perfectly reasonable 6 or 7th best player on a championship team.

Exactly. He's a Benintendi or Trot Nixon level contributor. Not a star, but someone who can hold their own. Verdugo got playing time with the 2019 Dodgers mostly because AJ Pollack missed time on the IL. The rest of that outfield was Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, and league MVP Cody Bellinger. Adding Mookie to that mix really made Verdugo expendable to them, but isn't really a reflection on Verdugo overall. Playing time was going to be hard to come by, and they didn't know that Bellinger was going to fall off like he did (Pederson too).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

IIRC, the Padres talk didn't include taking Price with Betts, which is a very important factor in evaluating the deal. Taking Myers was about enhancing the prospect package that came with him. Whatever benefit the Pads would be getting by moving him and his contract would have been negated by Price and his contract.



Exactly. He's a Benintendi or Trot Nixon level contributor. Not a star, but someone who can hold their own. Verdugo got playing time with the 2019 Dodgers mostly because AJ Pollack missed time on the IL. The rest of that outfield was Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, and league MVP Cody Bellinger. Adding Mookie to that mix really made Verdugo expendable to them, but isn't really a reflection on Verdugo overall. Playing time was going to be hard to come by, and they didn't know that Bellinger was going to fall off like he did (Pederson too).

Funny thing is, Benintendi and Trot Nixon are the players who underperformed their rankings. Verdugo? Not so much. Nixon was a top 15 prospect, some had Benny 1.

 

[nvalvo]

IIRC, the Padres talk didn't include taking Price with Betts, which is a very important factor in evaluating the deal. Taking Myers was about enhancing the prospect package that came with him. Whatever benefit the Pads would be getting by moving him and his contract would have been negated by Price and his contract.

So let's think about that. If the Sox had chosen that path, we would just be finishing up Price's and Myers' deals now, and I would wager that we would not have made the playoffs in 2021. BUT, we might have a couple of pretty phenomenal prospects breaking through now from the high minors.

That sounds like a part of a real rebuild. So choosing the Dodgers' package over the Padres' was a way of shifting value forward from the 2023-2025 timescale to 2020-22.

 

[nighthob]

All the pro scouts are wrong and you are right. Give me a break.

I'm pretty sure an "average OF" would be a top 50 prospect anyway.

So you’re agreeing with me that the Dodgers viewed the roughly $50 million the centerpiece for one year of Betts and weren’t willing to offer much more than an averagish player and flotsam?

 

[scottyno]

So you’re agreeing with me that the Dodgers viewed the roughly $50 million the centerpiece for one year of Betts and weren’t willing to offer much more than an averagish player and flotsam?

4th outfielders with limited defensive value aren't average players

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So you’re agreeing with me that the Dodgers viewed the roughly $50 million the centerpiece for one year of Betts and weren’t willing to offer much more than an averagish player and flotsam?

Sure, but that's not what you said. And it wasn't flotsam. Downs was a legit prospect. He just didn't work out.

 

[nighthob]

Sure, but that's not what you said. And it wasn't flotsam. Downs was a legit prospect. He just didn't work out.

He was, and as I noted in the original post Boston had to fight to get someone with upside included because the Dodgers just weren’t willing to move much from their original offer which was, literally, an averagish OF and flotsam (because the third piece was originally Maeda and then a prospect they traded Maeda for). Boston probably should have sent Downs to that covid camp in 2020. The year off looks like it killed any hopes he had of hitting his upside.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He was, and as I noted in the original post Boston had to fight to get someone with upside included because the Dodgers just weren’t willing to move much from their original offer which was, literally, an averagish OF and flotsam (because the third piece was originally Maeda and then a prospect they traded Maeda for). Boston probably should have sent Downs to that covid camp in 2020. The year off looks like it killed any hopes he had of hitting his upside.

He also skipped AA which was pretty stupid in hindsight. Even when he was struggling mightily, they kept him in AAA.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He was, and as I noted in the original post Boston had to fight to get someone with upside included because the Dodgers just weren’t willing to move much from their original offer which was, literally, an averagish OF and flotsam (because the third piece was originally Maeda and then a prospect they traded Maeda for). Boston probably should have sent Downs to that covid camp in 2020. The year off looks like it killed any hopes he had of hitting his upside.

Covid camp? What exactly are you referring to?

If you mean the roster of players that were set up at Pawtucket as reserves during the 2022 season, Downs was there with many of the other top prospects at the time (Dalbec, Houck, Duran, Mata, Groome, Wong). Not sure what else the Sox could have done with Downs or any of their prospects that season.

I agree with CC that the bigger issue was that he skipped AA entirely. He could have spent time in Portland last year rather than struggling all year in Worcester.

 

[mikcou]

Funny thing is, Benintendi and Trot Nixon are the players who underperformed their rankings. Verdugo? Not so much. Nixon was a top 15 prospect, some had Benny 1.

Trot Nixon underperformed? He got hurt a lot, but was a really good player when healthy - way better than anything Verdugo is. He had a 5 win season and a couple of other 3 win seasons. He was a legit above average regular for 6-7 year period. He couldnt stay healthy ultimately, but thems the breaks. Ill forgive you if your lasting impression of him was the late 00's version of him who had a completely compromised bat - that player was a shell of the 99-05 version. That version was a 2.5-3.5 win (with a 5 win peak) player outside of his '04 season where he was out most of the year. I think that classification is overly harsh even for a top 20 guy.

Benintendi legitimately has underperformed and is a good comp for Verdugo in a guy who never showed good in game power in the minors, but had legitimate raw power that didnt show up consistently. The potential 70 hit tool also vanished.

 

[nighthob]

Covid camp? What exactly are you referring to?

MLB allowed teams to bring some minor leaguers to alternate training sites. I fully agree that they rushed Downs and should have given him time in Portland. I’m glad that they’re being more cautious with Casas (although I think they’re now being a little too cautious).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

MLB allowed teams to bring some minor leaguers to alternate training sites. I fully agree that they rushed Downs and should have given him time in Portland. I’m glad that they’re being more cautious with Casas (although I think they’re now being a little too cautious).

And Downs was at the Red Sox alternate training site in 2020, so what else should they have done with him that they didn't do?

 

[nighthob]

Funny thing is, Benintendi and Trot Nixon are the players who underperformed their rankings. Verdugo? Not so much. Nixon was a top 15 prospect, some had Benny 1.

If Verdugo could play RF it wouldn’t be a problem. You can live with Trot Nixon in RF as it’s easier to find mediocre defensive LFers that can hit than vice versa. Benintendi was definitely overrated, but Boston got away with it because they had an MVP/Gold Glove level RFer at the time. But LF is definitely not the spot where you want your averagish player to be.

 

[brandonchristensen]

I think Bello is earning himself a rotation spot to start 23. What an exciting young pitcher. Feels like it’s been awhile since we had one like him.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I think Bello is earning himself a rotation spot to start 23. What an exciting young pitcher. Feels like it’s been awhile since we had one like him.

Since Eduardo Rodriguez who made his debut in 2015.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Since Eduardo Rodriguez who made his debut in 2015.

Since he came by trade, I like Bello a bit more.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Since Eduardo Rodriguez who made his debut in 2015.

Realistically how many innings should he be expected to throw next year?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Realistically how many innings should he be expected to throw next year?

He's at 128 now. 117.2 last year. I guess he ends up around 150 this year. So 180 next year?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Since he came by trade, I like Bello a bit more.

If you eliminate trades, it's Henry Owens. If you want success, it's Matt Barnes. For a starter, it's probably Clay Buchholz.

 

[brandonchristensen]

If you eliminate trades, it's Henry Owens. If you want success, it's Matt Barnes. For a starter, it's probably Clay Buchholz.

Not great.