What does 2023 look like?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Right, but what I'm getting at is that the Sox can make Bogaerts a reasonable offer and still be outbid by another team.

This, to me, is the likely scenario. There's always some team that will offer something silly, and it'd be silly for X to turn it down. I can see Xander being a liability offensively in 3-4 more years. Just slightly above average for maybe the next 3 (not worth the cost). Devers should have very good to excellent offensive seasons for at least 4-5 more and another 3-4 above average after that.... and possibly to longer on the 4-5 "excellent" seasons if he can spend more time at DH to stay healthy. I'd still look at a 10 year/$300M offer after the last out of the last game of this season is done.

 

[RobertS975]

Problem is that 10/300M would probably represent an initial offer, not embarrassing but not getting it done either.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Problem is that 10/300M would probably represent an initial offer, not embarrassing but not getting it done either.

I don’t think I see Devers exceeding that if he goes to FA unless he has a Judge-like walk year (beware the walk year). He’s had two significant 2nd half collapses at the plate and his defensive reputation is poor.
I’m talking myself into letting him walk too

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I have absolutely no feel for what Wacha will command this offseason. But I'd like to have him back, injury history notwithstanding.

 

[kazuneko]

Don’t the Angels have to trade Ohtani this off-season (after next year he hits free agency)? He’s responded to questions about his future with a pretty ominous statement about wanting to win - which isn’t exactly what the Angels are known for.
Obviously it would take a ton to trade for him, but if any player is worth it, it’s Ohtani. Obviously the Sox would have to put together a winning team around him if they hoped to keep him long-term, but acquiring him would clearly be a huge step in that direction..

 

[NDame616]

Don’t the Angels have to trade Ohtani this off-season (after next year he hits free agency)? He’s responded to questions about his future with a pretty ominous statement about wanting to win - which isn’t exactly what the Angels are known for.
Obviously it would take a ton to trade for him, but if any player is worth it, it’s Ohtani. Obviously the Sox would have to put together a winning team around him if they hoped to keep him long-term, but acquiring him would clearly be a huge step in that direction..

What about this current ownership/management group makes you think we will spend the prospect capital and then the financial investment in Ohtani?

I can't see Bloom packaging Mayer, Casas, Bello ++ for Ohtani, then the ownership group signing off on the $400M contract.

EDIT: I'm not calling Henry cheap BTW. I'm not diving into F&M hot takes. But I don't know the last time we were linked to the top of the market FA who will command a market altering contract.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

What about this current ownership/management group makes you think we will spend the prospect capital and then the financial investment in Ohtani?

I can't see Bloom packaging Mayer, Casas, Bello ++ for Ohtani, then the ownership group signing off on the $400M contract.

EDIT: I'm not calling Henry cheap BTW. I'm not diving into F&M hot takes. But I don't know the last time we were linked to the top of the market FA who will command a market altering contract.

I don't see the Sox making the move just because it's too risky. If Ohtani prefers the west coast and doesn't want to resign, you risk losing your top prospects for 1 year of his services. But I also don't think they'd pull the trigger on that kind of deal unless ownership has given Bloom an indication they were willing to spend that kind of money to keep him around.

I would love to have him in a Red Sox uniform and he is the kind of guy you trade your top prospects for, but it's a huge gamble and I don't think the Sox are in the position to take that kind of risk with all of the holes they need to fill. If he was the last piece, sure, go for it.

 

[nvalvo]

I don't see the Sox making the move just because it's too risky. If Ohtani prefers the west coast and doesn't want to resign, you risk losing your top prospects for 1 year of his services. But I also don't think they'd pull the trigger on that kind of deal unless ownership has given Bloom an indication they were willing to spend that kind of money to keep him around.

I would love to have him in a Red Sox uniform and he is the kind of guy you trade your top prospects for, but it's a huge gamble and I don't think the Sox are in the position to take that kind of risk with all of the holes they need to fill. If he was the last piece, sure, go for it.

That's the sort of trade that doesn't happen without at least a handshake deal on the terms of an extension, so I wouldn't worry about that.

Maybe Ohtani prefers the West Coast ceteris paribus, but I can also imagine that he might want to play in a market with a bit more competitive fire after Anaheim. Maybe he's interested in his place in the history of the sport, and wants to play up the Ruthian resonances. If we can offer him that and $400m, maybe he bites.

Or maybe he just signals through his agent that he'll only extend with the Giants or Mariners, and engineers a move on the West Coast that way. Who knows?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That's the sort of trade that doesn't happen without at least a handshake deal on the terms of an extension, so I wouldn't worry about that.

Maybe Ohtani prefers the West Coast ceteris paribus, but I can also imagine that he might want to play in a market with a bit more competitive fire after Anaheim. Maybe he's interested in his place in the history of the sport, and wants to play up the Ruthian resonances. If we can offer him that and $400m, maybe he bites.

Or maybe he just signals through his agent that he'll only extend with the Giants or Mariners, and engineers a move on the West Coast that way. Who knows?

Ohtani would kill the rotating DH that many people want. Not that that would be the deal breaker.

 

[jon abbey]

I will believe the Angels trade Ohtani when they actually do it and we’ve already talked about his lack of interest in playing on the East Coast, but in this context it’s also worth noting that his two starts in Yankee Stadium have both been disastrous, 11 ERs combined in 3.2 IP and his lowest game score in both 2021 and 2022.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Don’t the Angels have to trade Ohtani this off-season (after next year he hits free agency)? He’s responded to questions about his future with a pretty ominous statement about wanting to win - which isn’t exactly what the Angels are known for.
Obviously it would take a ton to trade for him, but if any player is worth it, it’s Ohtani. Obviously the Sox would have to put together a winning team around him if they hoped to keep him long-term, but acquiring him would clearly be a huge step in that direction..

I think if you make a move like this, you’re declaring yourself “all-in” for 2023. Which, maybe you think they should be. But you’d still have holes to fill, and now you’re relying on free agency to fill them because you’ve probably used your best trade chips, and that can be dicey. So what would be your plan for putting a good team around him? Also, while what I said goes for just about any trade target, in this case, you’re putting a lot of pressure on yourself to re-sign him - and probably Devers, too.

Don’t get me wrong, it’d be fun. But I’d be concerned that they’d basically be setting themselves up for a year (at least!) of Tungsten Arm jokes.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Don’t the Angels have to trade Ohtani this off-season (after next year he hits free agency)?

No. No they don't.

 

[Ganthem]

I am not sure why the Sox would want to give up a ton of prospects for a player and then have to sign him for a record breaking contract. Barring a pandemic he should reach free agency. Maybe the Angels even trade him mid season which eliminates the draft pick comp.

 

[nvalvo]

Look — all I'm saying is this. If he'd accept a deal from us, does it make more sense to give Ohtani a pile of money or to give Devers $300m?

He's 27. In the last two seasons combined, he's been worth 8 rWAR as a batter — .260/.360/.560 combined line, a 150ish OPS+ — mostly at DH, with a touch of corner outfield. He has also been worth 9 rWAR on the mound, with 47 starts and a 2.99 FIP in ~270 IP. So, yeah. 17 rWAR in two seasons. That performance had surplus value at any contract with an AAV under $75m.

Say you could get him on a deal with an AAV that started with a 3, you get a DH/LF who hits like Raffy Devers and a starter who throws like 2021 Nathan Eovaldi, and you get a bonus roster spot. How much is that worth?

Who knows how he'll age: it's just totally unprecedented. So there's an absolute ton of risk that, say, he's eventually a DH/relief ace — also an interesting idea! — or just an expensive aging LF.

And as Rovin Romine reminds us, the Angels are almost certainly trying to work out a way to convince him to extend with them.

 

[Rovin Romine]

and you get a bonus roster spot. How much is that worth?

Depends on who that final extra man is - if Ohtani were hypothetically on the Sox this year, (taking Eovaldi and JD's spot) the Sox would have been able to call up. . .well, the likes of Bazardo or Ort. Or looking back to who didn't make the cut in spring training - Tyler Danish.

 

[dhappy42]

Look — all I'm saying is this. If he'd accept a deal from us, does it make more sense to give Ohtani a pile of money or to give Devers $300m?

Makes more sense to pay Ohtani $60 AAV than to pay Devers $30 AAV. Unless Devers learns to pitch like Max Scherzer. Ohtani is like Scherzer and Paul Goldschmidt in one body, but a lot younger. (He's 28, not 27.)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Makes more sense to pay Ohtani $60 AAV than to pay Devers $30 AAV. Unless Devers learns to pitch like Max Scherzer. Ohtani is like Scherzer and Paul Goldschmidt in one body, but a lot younger. (He's 28, not 27.)

Well, unless the guys you trade are worth $30M+, and presumably they would be or why would the Angels be making the deal? Of course, I don’t see what combination of players the Sox could offer that would match what the Angels would be looking for. This is the Soto discussion all over again, except the cost will be higher.

 

[scottyno]

Well, unless the guys you trade are worth $30M+, and presumably they would be or why would the Angels be making the deal? Of course, I don’t see what combination of players the Sox could offer that would match what the Angels would be looking for. This is the Soto discussion all over again, except the cost will be higher.

2+ years of Soto is worth way more than 1 year of Ohtani

 

[dhappy42]

Well, unless the guys you trade are worth $30M+, and presumably they would be or why would the Angels be making the deal? Of course, I don’t see what combination of players the Sox could offer that would match what the Angels would be looking for. This is the Soto discussion all over again, except the cost will be higher.

I was thinking in terms of when/if Ohtani reaches free agency, (in 2024, same time as Devers,) not a winter trade.

Edit: Looking at https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/, Mayer and Rafaela would be fair trade for one year of Ohtani. That's not a trade I'd make.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Gotcha, that makes sense.

 

[chawson]

And as Rovin Romine reminds us, the Angels are almost certainly trying to work out a way to convince him to extend with them.

Weren’t there a few quotes from Ohtani recently indicating he wants to move on (to a place he can win)? I’ve internalized the notion that he prefers a West Coast team, but who knows. He seems fairly attuned to the makings of his own legacy, certainly more than when he first signed. Of course it’s worth trying.

If there’s some kind of handshake understanding that he’d sign an extension, I’d give up a lot, probably including Mayer. But since Arte Moreno is putting the Angels up for sale, I wonder if there’s a “reverse-Mookie/Price trade” thing we could do and take on a subsidized Rendon in an Ohtani deal. Rendon has 4/$152M left on his contract (edit: he does have a no-trade clause) and he’ll have 10-and-5 protection after two more seasons. I don’t know what we’d do with him, assuming we also extend Raffy, but we could figure that out later. Who would our versions of Verdugo/Downs/Wong be?

 

[YTF]

Here's a question I have concerning any team signing Ohtani. How much do you fork out for a two way player who may well at some point have to become a one way player? While I have no way to quantify this, think about something for a moment. Playing Ohtani on a near daily basis when he's not on the mound increases the opportunity of injuring one of your best pitchers. Throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion for the human arm. Doing so repeatedly for 90-110 pitches every 5th day increases risk of injury for one of your best hitters. Because Ohtani excels as both a hitter and a pitcher, any team signing him really needs to weigh how much of a financial to make when the team or player may come to the conclusion that the workload needs to be reduced.

 

[nighthob]

Who would our versions of Verdugo/Downs/Wong be?

Clearly Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Ohtani is the one guy (Soto is great but he also feels like he’ll be a Pujols Angels contract) I’d break the bank for but I’d just rather go after him as a FA. Killing a budget on one guy means that more 75% of the roster will have to be value players…. I don’t see the farm having enough talent to surround him surround him with

 

[kazuneko]

No. No they don't.

Why not? You really okay with only getting a comp pick for the most valuable player since steroid-era Bonds? Or do you think the Angels are going to go all-in in the off-season and actually succeed at building a contender around him? Because if they don’t, Ohtani is gone. It’s as simple as that. Ohtani’s indirect statement about “wanting to win” is about as direct as a Japanese player would ever get. So if the Angels aren’t going to be one of the more aggressive teams in the off-season they need to trade him - as his value only goes down once next season starts.
Whether the Sox should bid on him is a separate question. Obviously it would cost a fortune and be a complete break from the direction they’ve been going, but the Sox, with Ohtani, are a likely playoff team, as he would be a huge lift to both the front of the rotation and middle of the order. Obviously, no one else does that. I also think that as long as the Sox make the playoffs, it would be pretty unlikely that if the Sox did trade for him that he wouldn’t sign here long-term - and it may not even cost as much as many assume. Japanese players are far more loyal than their American counterparts and much less focused on scoring historically large contracts. If they Sox give up serious value for him and are able to contend in 23’, Ohtani will feel obliged to work with management to stay long-term.

 

[kazuneko]

Ohtani is the one guy (Soto is great but he also feels like he’ll be a Pujols Angels contract) I’d break the bank for but I’d just rather go after him as a FA. Killing a budget on one guy means that more 75% of the roster will have to be value players…. I don’t see the farm having enough talent to surround him surround him with

If Ohtani is traded somewhere else, and that team makes the playoffs, I think it’s pretty likely that he signs with that team long-term. If he isn’t traded, and either the Dodgers or Padres pursue him, it seems likely he signs with one of them (as long as they are contenders next season). Darvish is a friend and a mentor in San Diego, and obviously both the Padres and Dodgers play close to where he currently lives. I also really doubt that getting top dollar is going to be the decisive factor for him, which means even if the Sox outbid the two west coast powerhouses, I doubt they’d be able to land him..

 

[jon abbey]

If Ohtani is traded somewhere else, and that team makes the playoffs, I think it’s pretty likely that he signs with that team long-term. If he isn’t traded, and either the Dodgers or Padres pursue him, it seems likely he signs with one of them (as long as they are contenders next season). Darvish is a friend and a mentor in San Diego, and obviously both the Padres and Dodgers play close to where he currently lives. I also really doubt that getting top dollar is going to be the decisive factor for him, which means even if the Sox outbid the two west coast powerhouses, I doubt they’d be able to land him..

I feel like you're jumping to a lot of conclusions in those last two posts, and I'm not sure why. What we do know is what Ohtani did the first time he was a FA, and one of those things was that he explicitly said he did not want to go to a team that had ever had a great Japanese player before (Ichiro, Matsui, etc.) so I'm not sure Darvish being a teammate is actually the plus point you think it is, or he could have just signed with Darvish's team the first time.

Also the 'top dollar' thing, this is a guy who was fucked out of hundreds of millions of dollars (not an exaggeration) by the CBA change the year before he came to the US, so I'd actually guess that he does want top dollar, as one of his priorities anyway.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Don’t the Angels have to trade Ohtani this off-season (after next year he hits free agency)?

No. No they don't.

Why not?

Because they can try to extend him now.
Because they can sign some potent FAs, or trade for pieces in 2023 and try to extend him after that, up to Dec. 2023.
Because they can trade him at the deadline in 2023.
Because they can choose to play out his 2023 contract and hope to sign him in the 2023 offseason, when they sign some potent FAs (or trade for players) in 2023.

And so on and so forth, with different pressures added via injuries, poor performance, excellent performance, or other teams calling with various packages at any point. They could even extend and trade in 2024.

 

[jon abbey]

Because they can try to extend him now.
Because they can sign some potent FAs, or trade for pieces in 2023 and try to extend him after that, up to Dec. 2023.
Because they can trade him at the deadline in 2023.
Because they can choose to play out his 2023 contract and hope to sign him in the 2023 offseason, when they sign some potent FAs (or trade for players) in 2023.

And so on and so forth, with different pressures added via injuries, poor performance, excellent performance, or other teams calling with various packages at any point. They could even extend and trade in 2024.

“Extend and trade"? Huh?

It's a Manny Machado in BAL situation again. They should have traded him at the deadline this year, they didn't. They should trade him this winter, they probably won't. They will maybe trade him next summer, but I'll be very surprised if he is playing for the Angels after next season because there really is not a path for them to be competitive by then, barring a slew of miracles. They're a badly run organization with a dumb, interfering owner, and they are up for sale, so logic isn't a big factor.

 

[snowmanny]

Maybe the Angels like having Ohtani on the team even if they aren't competitive. They probably wouldn't be competitive with whatever they'd get for him either.

edit - I think RR and I are saying something similar. I wouldn't assume that the Angels think about this in the same way that the Red Sox or Yankees might.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

They're a badly run organization with a dumb, interfering owner, and they are up for sale, so logic isn't a big factor.

Well, to be fair, for all we know the new owner(s) might want a crack at extending him. Assuming the sale gets completed between now and off-season 2023.

 

[jon abbey]

Well, to be fair, for all we know the new owner(s) might want a crack at extending him. Assuming the sale gets completed between now and off-season 2023.

That’s what I meant with the ‘up for sale’ part, another unknown factor.

 

[dhappy42]

Othani’s free agent contract is going to be mind-boggling. At least $60 million AAV.

 

[moondog80]

Othani’s free agent contract is going to be mind-boggling. At least $60 million AAV.

I'll take the under. I know he's unique and he will get a lot but that's a quantum leap in an industry that moves slowly.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Here's a question I have concerning any team signing Ohtani. How much do you fork out for a two way player who may well at some point have to become a one way player? While I have no way to quantify this, think about something for a moment. Playing Ohtani on a near daily basis when he's not on the mound increases the opportunity of injuring one of your best pitchers. Throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion for the human arm. Doing so repeatedly for 90-110 pitches every 5th day increases risk of injury for one of your best hitters. Because Ohtani excels as both a hitter and a pitcher, any team signing him really needs to weigh how much of a financial to make when the team or player may come to the conclusion that the workload needs to be reduced.

If he's DHing, the risk of injury is lower than if he was playing in the field, so that wouldn't really concern me. You're basically hoping that he doesn't get hit in the face at bat or badly injured running the bases. And you're always taking a risk on signing a pitcher, so it's either you never sign a big name free agent starter or you take the risk.

As he ages, you can give him additional days off as a hitter if he's still pitching well. If he blows out his arm, you've still got a middle of the order bat. I'll take the risk of having that kind of guy on my team.

 

[kazuneko]

Because they can try to extend him now.
Because they can sign some potent FAs, or trade for pieces in 2023 and try to extend him after that, up to Dec. 2023.
Because they can trade him at the deadline in 2023.

Again, Ohtani has all but said he isn’t signing with the Angels unless they can prove they can win. How does that suggest they can extend him now?
And sure, they can try to be aggressive in the off-season and build a contender, but as others have suggested that doesn’t seem likely. And if you are going into next season with little chance of winning you’re better off trading him before the season because the price is just going down the longer you wait..

 

[kazuneko]

I'll take the under. I know he's unique and he will get a lot but that's a quantum leap in an industry that moves slowly.

I’d also take the under. I don’t think people appreciate the cultural difference and the personality. I don’t think Ohtani’s goal is breaking records with his contract. He’s more likely to emphasize winning and location.

 

[kazuneko]

I feel like you're jumping to a lot of conclusions in those last two posts, and I'm not sure why. What we do know is what Ohtani did the first time he was a FA, and one of those things was that he explicitly said he did not want to go to a team that had ever had a great Japanese player before (Ichiro, Matsui, etc.) so I'm not sure Darvish being a teammate is actually the plus point you think it is, or he could have just signed with Darvish's team the first time.

Also the 'top dollar' thing, this is a guy who was fucked out of hundreds of millions of dollars (not an exaggeration) by the CBA change the year before he came to the US, so I'd actually guess that he does want top dollar, as one of his priorities anyway.

My assumptions come from following him over the years, both in Japan and America, and through this having a sense of his personality and likely priorities. Ohtani lives and breathes baseball, and is the very picture of the type of loyal, majime (serious, but the translation doesn’t quite capture the feeling) player who is very unlikely to want to look selfish by holding out for top dollar. I’m not sure Americans easily appreciate this, but looking selfish (and putting yourself above the team by demanding top dollar very much fits under this) isn’t something many Japanese feel comfortable doing. My guess is he’d prefer to sign with the Angels long term, but is increasingly frustrated by the team’s consistent inability to win. Him saying so much was huge, and puts the Angels on notice that as loyal as he is they better make some moves quick or he’s gone..

 

[dhappy42]

I’d also take the under. I don’t think people appreciate the cultural difference and the personality. I don’t think Ohtani’s goal is breaking records with his contract. He’s more likely to emphasize winning and location.

Teams might not be willing or able to pay Othani that much and he may not hold out for top dollar, but he’s worth even more. He’s worth the combined salaries of a top-10 pitcher and top-10 hitter, Scherzer and Goldschmidt, for example, whose combined salary is $69 million.

 

[kazuneko]

Teams might not be willing or able to pay Othani that much and he may not hold out for top dollar, but he’s worth even more. He’s worth the combined salaries of a top-10 pitcher and top-10 hitter, Scherzer and Goldschmidt, for example, whose combined salary is $69 million.

Which is exactly why I’d love to see him on the Sox. Barring injury he’s got a good chance to be a bargain, even on a huge contract.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Teams might not be willing or able to pay Othani that much and he may not hold out for top dollar, but he’s worth even more. He’s worth the combined salaries of a top-10 pitcher and top-10 hitter, Scherzer and Goldschmidt, for example, whose combined salary is $69 million.

But one injury will hurt both players in this case. So he will have some additional hedging on his value.
I think $47.5M will be his max

 

[nvalvo]

Othani’s free agent contract is going to be mind-boggling. At least $60 million AAV.

I'll take the under. I know he's unique and he will get a lot but that's a quantum leap in an industry that moves slowly.

I would also take the under.

I suspect there's a weird non-linearity in $/WAR for the very highest dollar position player contracts, where a contract projection based off WAR for a player like Ohtani, Soto, Trout, Betts, and maybe a few others, would suggest some sort of bonkers contract, but contracts don't actually go that high.

So although while you're taking on a ton of injury risk if you offer Trout a 12/$426m deal, that's actually a pretty low contract for a guy who signed it coming off a 7 year stretch where he averaged 9+ WAR per season — and was only 26. In the '18-19 offseason when they signed that extension, what would you have projected Trout's next 12 years to be worth in WAR? Even factoring in injury risk and decline, the midpoint projection would have been something like 60 wins, right? At $9m/WAR, the deal he actually got is something like $120m light. That's a hell of a hometown discount.

 

[mikcou]

Makes more sense to pay Ohtani $60 AAV than to pay Devers $30 AAV. Unless Devers learns to pitch like Max Scherzer. Ohtani is like Scherzer and Paul Goldschmidt in one body, but a lot younger. (He's 28, not 27.)

He's neither of those guys. As a pitcher, hes been in MLB since 2018 and this will be the first season hes ever thrown 150 innings. He has a consistent record of regularly getting hurt and missing starts - hes incredibly talented, but if you could split just the pitching Ohtani version out into the market, hes not getting a $200M deal. Scherzer has been an absolute horse over his career.

He's close to Goldschmidt, but its hard to tell what Ohtani really is a fielder because he never really plays to keep him rested to pitch. The hitter probably would get a $250M deal as he would be able to play the field.

The combo is less than the sum of its parts though - he shouldnt play the field to save his legs to pitch, but that meaningful reduces the bat's value. That and $30M a year is a premium player and generally you'd like your $30M pitcher and $30M hitter to have zero risk correlation. Here it is 100% - that is a meaningful pricing impact. Those facts arent anywhere near combatted by saving a roster spot - most teams dont even 22-23 guys who are clear major league players - adding another spot to keep some AAAA bullpen piece or utility player doesnt really move the needle.

I suspect he gets ~$350-375M total - hes not young enough to get a 12 or 13 year deal to get it larger than that - a 10 year deal that starts in his age 29 season that pays his 37.5M seems about the ceiling.

 

[jon abbey]

My assumptions come from following him over the years, both in Japan and America, and through this having a sense of his personality and likely priorities. Ohtani lives and breathes baseball, and is the very picture of the type of loyal, majime (serious, but the translation doesn’t quite capture the feeling) player who is very unlikely to want to look selfish by holding out for top dollar. I’m not sure Americans easily appreciate this, but looking selfish (and putting yourself above the team by demanding top dollar very much fits under this) isn’t something many Japanese feel comfortable doing. My guess is he’d prefer to sign with the Angels long term, but is increasingly frustrated by the team’s consistent inability to win. Him saying so much was huge, and puts the Angels on notice that as loyal as he is they better make some moves quick or he’s gone..

FWIW my wife of close to 20 years is Japanese, so I get the cultural stuff. I agree with you that he'd prefer to stay with the Angels, but IMO there is zero chance they are going to be able to compete by 2023 or even 2024, their farm system isn't good and they have too many holes and a big payroll, even before paying Ohtani.

 

[chrisfont9]

What about this current ownership/management group makes you think we will spend the prospect capital and then the financial investment in Ohtani?

I can't see Bloom packaging Mayer, Casas, Bello ++ for Ohtani, then the ownership group signing off on the $400M contract.

EDIT: I'm not calling Henry cheap BTW. I'm not diving into F&M hot takes. But I don't know the last time we were linked to the top of the market FA who will command a market altering contract.

If the Sox hollow out the farm system to get him, then extend him for some giant number that precludes keeping Xander or Raffy, aren't we the new Angels at that point? I don't see why anyone besides him and closest family/friends would know anything about his geographic preferences. He knows a lot more about different places and baseball environments now, compared to his initial decision, but he's not going to share any of that right now. If I'm the Sox, I'll wait for his free agency and see if he'll take their money, but if not, there are probably better team building strategies available anyway.

Speaking of, shouldn't the Sox at least check back in on Benintendi this offseason? Benny has come back around to being the guy we thought he'd be, and probably pretty affordable. Pham is cool but at his age he's not exactly a long-term plan.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If the Sox hollow out the farm system to get him, then extend him for some giant number that precludes keeping Xander or Raffy, aren't we the new Angels at that point? I don't see why anyone besides him and closest family/friends would know anything about his geographic preferences. He knows a lot more about different places and baseball environments now, compared to his initial decision, but he's not going to share any of that right now. If I'm the Sox, I'll wait for his free agency and see if he'll take their money, but if not, there are probably better team building strategies available anyway.

Speaking of, shouldn't the Sox at least check back in on Benintendi this offseason? Benny has come back around to being the guy we thought he'd be, and probably pretty affordable. Pham is cool but at his age he's not exactly a long-term plan.

First part- agree with 100%!
Second part- pass. I don’t know what Ben10D will get but I think the likely $15AAV number will be better spent elsewhere. He should be Plan C

 

[kazuneko]

If the Sox hollow out the farm system to get him, then extend him for some giant number that precludes keeping Xander or Raffy, aren't we the new Angels at that point. I don't see why anyone besides him and closest family/friends would know anything about his geographic preferences. He knows a lot more about different places and baseball environments now, compared to his initial decision.

True, but he also is reportedly very comfortable in LA, and Southern California just happens to have two other baseball teams, and both of them have been everything the Angels haven’t been in recent years. Assuming either or both are interested, it would be surprising if he hits free agency and didn’t end up staying in the area.
And I agree, the Sox would need to commit to more than just Ohtani if they emptied the farm for him. At the minimum that would probably mean signing Raffy long-term as well. After all, Ohtani is only wanting to leave the Angels, because their prospects for winning are poor. If they let all their stars leave, he isn’t going to want to stay in Boston either..

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think RR and I are saying something similar. I wouldn't assume that the Angels think about this in the same way that the Red Sox or Yankees might.

Yep. There are many possibilities here.

The Rockies "had to" trade Trevor Story, right?

 

[YTF]

If he's DHing, the risk of injury is lower than if he was playing in the field, so that wouldn't really concern me. You're basically hoping that he doesn't get hit in the face at bat or badly injured running the bases. And you're always taking a risk on signing a pitcher, so it's either you never sign a big name free agent starter or you take the risk.

As he ages, you can give him additional days off as a hitter if he's still pitching well. If he blows out his arm, you've still got a middle of the order bat. I'll take the risk of having that kind of guy on my team.

I probably didn't do a great job in my post, but my main question here is how much of a premium do you pay for this two way player? What Ohtani is doing is unprecedented in the modern game and you have to wonder if/when he reverts one or the other out of any sort of necessity. It's highly likely that you overpay given the player's high skill set(s), but it's also entirely possible in the case of Ohtani that at some point the team is forced to consider protecting/prolonging their investment by placing Ohtani in the more traditional role of either pitching or hitting. The skills of a more "traditional" player are always a risk to decline as the contract ages and I think teams expect that may happen and accept that as a cost of doing business. With Ohtani there are two different sets of skills and there is the chance that you may have to shut one down in an attempt to preserve the other before that skill set begins to decline. Potential suitors should think long and hard about this as they determine what sort of premium they are willing to pay for this once in our lifetime player.

 

[chrisfont9]

I probably didn't do a great job in my post, but my main question here is how much of a premium do you pay for this two way player? What Ohtani is doing is unprecedented in the modern game and you have to wonder if/when he reverts one or the other out of any sort of necessity. It's highly likely that you overpay given the player's high skill set(s), but it's also entirely possible in the case of Ohtani that at some point the team is forced to consider protecting/prolonging their investment by placing Ohtani in the more traditional role of either pitching or hitting. The skills of a more "traditional" player are always a risk to decline as the contract ages and I think teams expect that may happen and accept that as a cost of doing business. With Ohtani there are two different sets of skills and there is the chance that you may have to shut one down in an attempt to preserve the other before that skill set begins to decline. Potential suitors should think long and hard about this as they determine what sort of premium they are willing to pay for this once in our lifetime player.

Just a completely fascinating scenario. Is there a way he can go all in on his body like LeBron or the quirkier TB12 thing, whereby he can withstand the rigors to his legs/torso of pitching and hitting? He'll have all the money in the world to pay for special treatments, and the DH role gives him time to stretch or whatever between ABs. My bet is that he can do both unless/until he starts having the typical array of pitcher arm problems. It sounds like he's already done some diet adjustment stuff.