What does 2023 look like?

[Rovin Romine]

I probably didn't do a great job in my post, but my main question here is how much of a premium do you pay for this two way player? What Ohtani is doing is unprecedented in the modern game and you have to wonder if/when he reverts one or the other out of any sort of necessity. It's highly likely that you overpay given the player's high skill set(s), but it's also entirely possible in the case of Ohtani that at some point the team is forced to consider protecting/prolonging their investment by placing Ohtani in the more traditional role of either pitching or hitting. The skills of a more "traditional" player are always a risk to decline as the contract ages and I think teams expect that may happen and accept that as a cost of doing business. With Ohtani there are two different sets of skills and there is the chance that you may have to shut one down in an attempt to preserve the other before that skill set begins to decline. Potential suitors should think long and hard about this as they determine what sort of premium they are willing to pay for this once in our lifetime player.

I think you have to factor in not only a strategic decision to favor one skill set, but a catastrophic injury as well. TJ surgery might take him out for 2 years and end the pitching portion of his career. Is that more or less likely because he's also a position player?

Ohtani is the kind of guy you want to bring up or first sign - you get two great players for the price of one (essentially.)

But I don't think it makes much sense to pay him full market price on a "lifetime" contract to be two great players going forward. . .

Maybe (and I'm not saying he'd agree), you could give him a primo base salary and have a set of ridiculous escalators based on appearances. I'm not sure if it's even legal under the CBA, but something like $20M (or whatever) based on his value as a DH, with an incentive of $10M for every 10 starts made in a season or 10 saves or whatever in relief appearances. . .with $20M for 20 starts. . .etc.

 

[dhappy42]

A base salary for DH/OF and big bonuses for pitching appearances is a great idea. (Does the CBA allow that?) A unique player calls for a unique salary structure, especially considering the unpredictability of his two-way durability in the future and the double catastrophic injury risk.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

and you get a bonus roster spot. How much is that worth?

I doubt that much.

Does Ohtani count against the 13 man limit for pitching? Or would that team be allowed to carry 14 pitchers? That could be a decent advantage. Having an extra bench player, meh.

An extra bullpen arm in this day and age might be worth "much."

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

A base salary for DH/OF and big bonuses for pitching appearances is a great idea. (Does the CBA allow that?) A unique player calls for a unique salary structure, especially considering the unpredictability of his two-way durability in the future and the double catastrophic injury risk.

It's a good idea, but I'm quite certain some other team would offer a much higher base and perhaps less incentives (or just equal incentives). The thing that concerns me the most is that if we consider him "two players" and pay him as, someone said "Scherzer and Goldschmidt combined"... one injury takes out those "two players".

 

[nvalvo]

I doubt that much.

Does Ohtani count against the 13 man limit for pitching? Or would that team be allowed to carry 14 pitchers? That could be a decent advantage. Having an extra bench player, meh.

An extra bullpen arm in this day and age might be worth "much."

looking at the current (September) Angels 28-man, Ohtani is listed under two-way players after 14 pitchers. So it looks like they get an extra one!

It’s also an extra 40-man spot.

 

[YTF]

I think you have to factor in not only a strategic decision to favor one skill set, but a catastrophic injury as well. TJ surgery might take him out for 2 years and end the pitching portion of his career. Is that more or less likely because he's also a position player?

Ohtani is the kind of guy you want to bring up or first sign - you get two great players for the price of one (essentially.)

But I don't think it makes much sense to pay him full market price on a "lifetime" contract to be two great players going forward. . .

Maybe (and I'm not saying he'd agree), you could give him a primo base salary and have a set of ridiculous escalators based on appearances. I'm not sure if it's even legal under the CBA, but something like $20M (or whatever) based on his value as a DH, with an incentive of $10M for every 10 starts made in a season or 10 saves or whatever in relief appearances. . .with $20M for 20 starts. . .etc.

Yes, this is where I'm at. There's never a guarantee of getting the great player that you thought you signed over the length of contract, let alone two.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yes, this is where I'm at. There's never a guarantee of getting the great player that you thought you signed over the length of contract, let alone two.

But you only paid for one and have a chance of getting two. Being a 2 way player, there are tons of different ways for him to earn his contract. They could probably find him a position to play if he was done as a pitcher, too.

On another note, Ohtani has already had TJS and missed all of 2019... pitching. He still played 106 games that year and had an OPS of 121+ and 2.5 WAR. Imagine if Chris Sale was hitting .286/.343/.505 this year. It would still suck he isn't pitching, but it would suck less.

How much is he really going to get? Someone said $60 mil a page ago but there's no way a team is using 25% of its payroll on one player. I'd guess $35-45 mil. As great as Ohtani as been this year, Judge has the higher WAR.

Are 9 WAR SP/DHs worth more than 9 WAR positional players? You are getting 2 good to great players that combined make an elite one. Though I guess if he were a full time hitter, he could be just as valuable depending on his position, aka possibly elite anyway.

 

[YTF]

But you only paid for one and have a chance of getting two. Being a 2 way player, there are tons of different ways for him to earn his contract. They could probably find him a position to play if he was done as a pitcher, too.

On another note, Ohtani has already had TJS and missed all of 2019... pitching. He still played 106 games that year and had an OPS of 121+ and 2.5 WAR. Imagine if Chris Sale was hitting .286/.343/.505 this year. It would still suck he isn't pitching, but it would suck less.

How much is he really going to get? Someone said $60 mil a page ago but there's no way a team is using 25% of its payroll on one player. I'd guess $35-45 mil. As great as Ohtani as been this year, Judge has the higher WAR.

Are 9 WAR SP/DHs worth more than 9 WAR positional players? You are getting 2 good to great players that combined make an elite one. Though I guess if he were a full time hitter, he could be just as valuable depending on his position, aka possibly elite anyway.

As RR said the player would have to agree to any sort of creativity in a contract specific to Ohtani's unique skill set. One has to assume that multiple teams will show interest so if he's drawn a firm line as to the type of contract he's looking for and how the incentives work it will be interesting to see what sort of premium teams would be willing to pay to beat out their competitors.

 

[dhappy42]

[

How much is he really going to get? Someone said $60 mil a page ago but there's no way a team is using 25% of its payroll on one player.

But in effect, he is worth two players, less whatever the value of correlated injury.

I'd guess $35-45 mil. As great as Ohtani as been this year, Judge has the higher WAR.

So you’d offer Ohtani $2 million less than the Mets currently pay Scherzer, who is 38.

Are 9 WAR SP/DHs worth more than 9 WAR positional players? You are getting 2 good to great players that combined make an elite one. Though I guess if he were a full time hitter, he could be just as valuable depending on his position, aka possibly elite anyway.

Theoretically, WAR is WAR, but my intuition and pitcher salaries suggest elite starting pitching WAR is more valuable. But you also have to project into the future. Is 9 WAR a career year for Judge or is he just coming into his prime? Ohtani is two years younger and may have more durability as a SP/DH.

 

[nvalvo]

So you’d offer Ohtani $2 million less than the Mets currently pay Scherzer, who is 38.

Yeah, and like nine more years.

Theoretically, WAR is WAR, but my intuition and pitcher salaries suggest elite starting pitching WAR is more valuable. But you also have to project into the future. Is 9 WAR a career year for Judge or is he just coming into his prime? Ohtani is two years younger and may have more durability as a SP/DH.

This is an interesting point, and it points I think to the market's recognition of the increased significance of starting pitching in the postseason, which the WAR framework makes no effort to account for.

 

[mikcou]

[

But in effect, he is worth two players, less whatever the value of correlated injury.


So you’d offer Ohtani $2 million less than the Mets currently pay Scherzer, who is 38.


Theoretically, WAR is WAR, but my intuition and pitcher salaries suggest elite starting pitching WAR is more valuable. But you also have to project into the future. Is 9 WAR a career year for Judge or is he just coming into his prime? Ohtani is two years younger and may have more durability as a SP/DH.

Why are we using Scherzer? Ohtani is not signing a 3 year deal - risks scale significantly the longer deals get. Players tend to have somewhat standard aging curves, but not every player ages in the same manner.

If Ohtani wanted a 3 year deal, Im sure someone would give him $150-$160M, but hes not going to sign a 3 year deal. Hes going to be looking for 8-11 years - AAV doesnt scale linearly from a 3 year deal to ~10 year deal.

 

[chawson]

But in effect, he is worth two players, less whatever the value of correlated injury.

I think he's mostly worth two players, but not quite. The Angels have kept him on a 6-man rotation, giving him a slightly reduced set of starts than a typical rotation guy. Continuing that is probably a good idea, especially for a team with playoff aspirations. So while he gives you ace production, he's probably good for about 80-85 percent of the innings a typical ace would be.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I think he's mostly worth two players, but not quite. The Angels have kept him on a 6-man rotation, giving him a slightly reduced set of starts than a typical rotation guy. Continuing that is probably a good idea, especially for a team with playoff aspirations. So while he gives you ace production, he's probably good for about 80-85 percent of the innings a typical ace would be.

Would it make more sense to use him more as a relief ace type? Less innings but possibly more short strain? And how would that even work in the lineup???

 

[dhappy42]

Why are we using Scherzer? Ohtani is not signing a 3 year deal - risks scale significantly the longer deals get. Players tend to have somewhat standard aging curves, but not every player ages in the same manner.

I've used Scherzer simply because their 2022 WAR is the same. And Scherzer is often mentioned in the "what's Ohtani going to be worth in free agency" articles I've read. Rodon and Verlander are also WAR comps. Age-wise, Rodon obviously fits better. He'll also be a free agent in 2024.

If Ohtani wanted a 3 year deal, Im sure someone would give him $150-$160M, but hes not going to sign a 3 year deal. Hes going to be looking for 8-11 years - AAV doesnt scale linearly from a 3 year deal to ~10 year deal.

True, but there are other differences too. Scherzer is 10 years older than Ohtani. so Scherzer is probably not the best comp for Ohtani (P). It's also difficult coming up with an Ohtani (DH) comp. Devers?

I think the best point made in the thread so far is that Ohtani may be worth the combined salaries of an elite SP and DH, but minus the added risk of injury correlation (one player injury affects two positions), plus the less significant value of an extra roster spot. How much a discount that calls for, I dunno.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Would it make more sense to use him more as a relief ace type? Less innings but possibly more short strain? And how would that even work in the lineup???

How would he warm up if he’s already in the game?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How would he warm up if he’s already in the game?

Opener?

 

[chawson]

I've used Scherzer simply because their 2022 WAR is the same. And Scherzer is often mentioned in the "what's Ohtani going to be worth in free agency" articles I've read. Rodon and Verlander are also WAR comps. Age-wise, Rodon obviously fits better. He'll also be a free agent in 2024.


True, but there are other differences too. Scherzer is 10 years older than Ohtani. so Scherzer is probably not the best comp for Ohtani (P). It's also difficult coming up with an Ohtani (DH) comp. Devers?

I think the best point made in the thread so far is that Ohtani may be worth the combined salaries of an elite SP and DH, but minus the added risk of injury correlation (one player injury affects two positions), plus the less significant value of an extra roster spot. How much a discount that calls for, I dunno.

Also, plus a significant amount of ancillary value from employing this kind of all-world player.

Would it make more sense to use him more as a relief ace type? Less innings but possibly more short strain? And how would that even work in the lineup???

He's a starter. I haven't read a word suggesting otherwise. PIAB notes the absurdity of trying to use him in the bullpen, and I'd have to think he wouldn't consider signing with a team that wants to use him differently.

 

[mikcou]

I've used Scherzer simply because their 2022 WAR is the same. And Scherzer is often mentioned in the "what's Ohtani going to be worth in free agency" articles I've read. Rodon and Verlander are also WAR comps. Age-wise, Rodon obviously fits better. He'll also be a free agent in 2024.


True, but there are other differences too. Scherzer is 10 years older than Ohtani. so Scherzer is probably not the best comp for Ohtani (P). It's also difficult coming up with an Ohtani (DH) comp. Devers?

I think the best point made in the thread so far is that Ohtani may be worth the combined salaries of an elite SP and DH, but minus the added risk of injury correlation (one player injury affects two positions), plus the less significant value of an extra roster spot. How much a discount that calls for, I dunno.

Thats true, but Scherzer has historically been much better. The main point was that AAVs on short deals do not extrapolate to AAVs on longer deals. Total guarantees matter.

As for comps for the bat, I'd throw out pre-2018 JD Martinez - was going into his age 30 season - coming off four 140+ OPS+ years (e.g., Ohtani's career OPS+) and similar peak years in the 150s and 160s with an acknowledgement he was probably a DH only. Ohtani will be going into his age 29 season. If he doesn't want opt-outs like JD had, 7/190-200 or 8/220M seems a pretty reasonable adjusted contract.

I think the pitching picks him up a few more years and another $150M in total guarantees. Admittedly, its all rough - I wouldnt be particularly surprised if he caps out at 325-350M or if he got 11/400.

 

[scottyno]

This is an interesting point, and it points I think to the market's recognition of the increased significance of starting pitching in the postseason, which the WAR framework makes no effort to account for.

How exactly is there an increased significance on starting pitching in the postseason in 2022? Every year starters in the postseason go shorter and shorter and relief aces who are able to throw multiple innings every other day become more and more the norm.

 

[jon abbey]

How exactly is there an increased significance on starting pitching in the postseason in 2022? Every year starters in the postseason go shorter and shorter and relief aces who are able to throw multiple innings every other day become more and more the norm.

I think he meant 'increased significance' of aces in the postseason over the regular season.

 

[scottyno]

I think he meant 'increased significance' of aces in the postseason over the regular season.

Is that true though? Every year more and more aces are pulled in the playoffs after pitching well because of 3rd time through the order. Those same pitchers wouldn't be pulled in a regular season game because you can't tax your bullpen like that every night.

 

[jon abbey]

Is that true though? Every year more and more aces are pulled in the playoffs after pitching well because of 3rd time through the order. Those same pitchers wouldn't be pulled in a regular season game because you can't tax your bullpen like that every night.

Not sure who that has happened to besides Blake Snell, and he was used the same way in the regular season, but teams generally only use 3-4 starters and try to get their best SP or two as many innings as they can. The first example I looked up:

WAS 2019:

17 postseason games, Scherzer and Strasburg 66.1 innings pitched, so 3.9 innings per postseason game.
162 regular season games, Scherzer and Strasburg 381 innings pitched, so 2.35 innings per regular season game.

 

[scottyno]

Not sure who that has happened to besides Blake Snell, and he was used the same way in the regular season, but teams generally only use 3-4 starters and try to get their best SP or two as many innings as they can. The first example I looked up:

WAS 2019:

17 postseason games, Scherzer and Strasburg 66.1 innings pitched, so 3.9 innings per postseason game.
162 regular season games, Scherzer and Strasburg 381 innings pitched, so 2.35 innings per regular season game.

Those 2 pitched longer per regular season start than they did in that postseason

It also happened to Eovaldi pretty much every start last postseason, including the elimination wild card game

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Additionally top starters will make a bullpen appearance too

 

[nvalvo]

Is that true though? Every year more and more aces are pulled in the playoffs after pitching well because of 3rd time through the order. Those same pitchers wouldn't be pulled in a regular season game because you can't tax your bullpen like that every night.

Jon Abbey was right about what I meant, but I was imprecise. I think your critique is onto something and needs to be taken on board.

So I think I would amend my statement to note that high-end SP and RP both pitch a higher proportion of their team's IP in postseason play than they would in regular season play — which is obvious. So while SP generally do not pitch as deep into individual games in the sense of average IP/start or times through the order, they also make relief appearances and might start on short rest. So what I really was driving at is that (barring disaster) teams basically pitch with a short staff: instead of 13 pitchers, they really only throw 8-10 for more than a few outs in emergencies. The better pitchers may not pitch deeper on a per-game ratio, but the team is likely leaning harder on their best three starters and their best relievers. Fourth starters generally pitch at most once in a seven-game series and may not throw at all in a five-game series. Fifth starters generally aren't on the roster, or may pitch in short relief.

In the 2018 World Series, David Price recorded ~25 percent of the Red Sox' outs. Clayton Kershaw was on the mound for around 21 percent of LA's defensive innings, pretty close to what Strasburg did for Washington in 2019 or Max Fried for Atlanta in 2021. Way back in 2014, Madison Bumgarner threw more than a third of the Giants' innings, but you're right that that probably wouldn't happen now. He had starts of 7 and 9 IP and a 5 IP relief appearance. Bumgarner did not throw a third of the Giants innings in the regular season, obviously. That's what I mean.

 

[jon abbey]

So I think I would amend my statement to note that high-end SP and RP both pitch a higher proportion of their team's IP in postseason play than they would in regular season play — which is obvious.

But also one thing we've learned in recent years is that if a team sees a top relief pitcher a bunch of times in a seven game series, generally that pitcher will lose effectiveness by the end of the series. This was the problem with pulling Blake Snell in game 7 (the right move), LAD had already seen the TB relievers a bunch and they were no longer nearly as effective.

 

[Niastri]

But also one thing we've learned in recent years is that if a team sees a top relief pitcher a bunch of times in a seven game series, generally that pitcher will lose effectiveness by the end of the series. This was the problem with pulling Blake Snell in game 7 (the right move), LAD had already seen the TB relievers a bunch and they were no longer nearly as effective.

This effect is what made Koji so devastating in his best season. He didn't have much to figure out... You couldn't tell the difference between his fast ball and his splitter until it was too late, and you definitely couldn't hit his splitter either way.

Mariano Rivera also comes to mind as a guy who didn't care if you knew what was coming.

 

[moondog80]

But also one thing we've learned in recent years is that if a team sees a top relief pitcher a bunch of times in a seven game series, generally that pitcher will lose effectiveness by the end of the series. This was the problem with pulling Blake Snell in game 7 (the right move), LAD had already seen the TB relievers a bunch and they were no longer nearly as effective.

That Nick Anderson guy is the Dexy's Midnight Runners of relief pitchers.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That Nick Anderson guy is the Dexy's Midnight Runners of relief pitchers.

Come on Moondog!

I wish I could understand this

 

[moondog80]

Come on Moondog!

I wish I could understand this

If you are of a certain age, you know that Dexy's Midnight Runners had a massive hit in the early 80s with "Come On Eileen, and was never heard from again. The ultimate one-hit-wonder.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If you are of a certain age, you know that Dexy's Midnight Runners had a massive hit in the early 80s with "Come On Eileen, and was never heard from again. The ultimate one-hit-wonder.

The “come on ——-“ was a hint that I got the joke. The context for others may have been missed. It’s like Men Without (baseball) Hats”

 

[moondog80]

The “come on ——-“ was a hint that I got the joke. The context for others may have been missed. It’s like Men Without (baseball) Hats”

Ah, yes, I should have picked up on that.

Still one of the catchiest songs of all time IMO.

 

[nvalvo]

But also one thing we've learned in recent years is that if a team sees a top relief pitcher a bunch of times in a seven game series, generally that pitcher will lose effectiveness by the end of the series. This was the problem with pulling Blake Snell in game 7 (the right move), LAD had already seen the TB relievers a bunch and they were no longer nearly as effective.

Interesting post.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

The “come on ——-“ was a hint that I got the joke. The context for others may have been missed. It’s like Men Without (baseball) Hats”

Men Without Hats had a second Top 20 hit with "Pop Goes The World". A much better song than the big hit, imho.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I like Strahm a lot. I’d line to have his as part of the bullpen for the next several years.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I like Strahm a lot. I’d line to have his as part of the bullpen for the next several years.

Depending on how Bloom wants to use Whitlock in ‘23…. The bullpen is already shaping up to be either borderline great or very good with what they currently have in hand.
Of course it’ll still hinge on health and repeated recent results of recent Houck and Barnes respectively. But beyond those two….. Strahm, Schrieber, Crawford, Winckowski (more a long relief guy), Ort and German all have good outlooks. I want Whitlock in the rotation but if he’s in the BP next year (which I would read as where he officially will be then on) it’s great.

 

[Ganthem]

Depending on how Bloom wants to use Whitlock in ‘23…. The bullpen is already shaping up to be either borderline great or very good with what they currently have in hand.
Of course it’ll still hinge on health and repeated recent results of recent Houck and Barnes respectively. But beyond those two….. Strahm, Schrieber, Crawford, Winckowski (more a long relief guy), Ort and German all have good outlooks. I want Whitlock in the rotation but if he’s in the BP next year (which I would read as where he officially will be then on) it’s great.

I am hoping that Bloom intends on using Whitlock as a starter. There is not near enough evidence to indicate Whitlock can't handle a starting spot. In other words I hope they don't Houck him.

 

[YTF]

Depending on how Bloom wants to use Whitlock in ‘23…. The bullpen is already shaping up to be either borderline great or very good with what they currently have in hand.
Of course it’ll still hinge on health and repeated recent results of recent Houck and Barnes respectively. But beyond those two….. Strahm, Schrieber, Crawford, Winckowski (more a long relief guy), Ort and German all have good outlooks. I want Whitlock in the rotation but if he’s in the BP next year (which I would read as where he officially will be then on) it’s great.

There are some solid pieces for sure, but I think you may be setting the bar a bit high ATM. I still see Barnes as a crap shoot, I wouldn't rule Crawford out of the rotation just yet, Winckowski has some work to do and I'm not sure what you see in Ort that leads you to think that he can contribute to borderline greatness. That plus the fact that we're unsure of what Whitlock's role will be leads me to think that there are probably at least 3 spots that need to be filled. IMO Chaim has to spend some of what's available to him in the off season or trade for a couple of above average arms with proven track records to get the pen to where it needs to be.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Curious what others here feel about Seabold. I suspect I’m in the very few to only one that sees him as a late bloomer with mid rotation potential. His first time through was impressive yesterday- granted against a pretty bad team. But what I really like about him, and perhaps it’ll translate better to a BP role, is that he doesn’t walk anyone! Throws strikes. He’s got a good presence with a nice mix of pitches- nothing outstanding, but enough good stuff to mix in a good consistent start.
I’d at least really like to see him given the Whitlock role for ‘22 and think he could be great there.

EDIT___ I also just noticed that SoSH Poster, Nvalvo mentioned this, in the Bello thread regarding Seabold, "
But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.

Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed."

Again.... I'd like some other opinions on Seabold, but I think he's going to be a very good starter- hopefully he's given more chances with the Sox, or if not, he should be given a multi-innings relief ace role.

NOTE- Passed balls in yesterdays games seem more an outlier to me. I didn't find that he had any significant issues more than any other AAA pitcher.

 

[chawson]

The “pitching surplus” would only be created by the team if they decide to re-up with Eovaldi, Wacha, and Paxton at $50M+ combined salary for next year. Which makes the more reliable Pivetta, available at $6M, expendable? The simple solution is to keep Pivetta and use other sources (either cash, or prospect capital) to acquire a RF. Kepler was lousy his year, but is moderately interesting; I am just not sure why the Sox would move a decent starter to get him.

I would also quibble with the definition of “league average starter“ as it relates to Pivetta. A guy with a league average ERA over a lot of innings isn’t all that easy to find and is better than average, since the league average ERA includes relievers and a whole ton of guys who don’t pitch many innings. Not that I love Pivetta but I think you are underrating him.

Yes, worthy concerns. To be clear, I’m more interested in Paxton on his player option. In the scenario that both pitchers accept the QO and Paxton exercises that, it would be around $42M, all off the books in 2024. But we’ll see how all that shakes out.

The problem with citing those pitchers’ cost as self-evidently prohibitive, as you have, is that we need to make those improvements anyway, and that will cost something. Judge will cost $300M. Nimmo will cost 5/$80-100M. Cordero/Refsnyder may cost Bloom his job.

I don’t mean to underrate Pivetta. I think he’s fine. (As I and others have noted, he does get beat up by the AL East.) What I'm saying is that we have Pivetta on essentially a 2/$14 deal. Is it worth reallocating that to Kepler at his 2/$17 deal? I think it could be. The reasons are a) the thin alternatives in the outfield, b) the need to break our young arms (Whitlock, Bello, Crawford) into the rotation and c) the "bird-in-hand" factor of potentially being able to secure a couple of above-average starters on short-year, moderate-overpay deals (rather than spending the offseason chasing them).

We’d also keep all our prospects in that scenario, possibly for other targets.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Fair enough- I don’t necessarily agree but I think you make a logical argument. The Renfroe deal continues to look like a disaster, and a real unforced error.

 

[chawson]

Fair enough- I don’t necessarily agree but I think you make a logical argument. The Renfroe deal continues to look like a disaster, and a real unforced error.

I agree there. There’s still time for Binelas and Hamilton but the deal did not work.

One major takeaway from it however was how the team values right field defense. Renfroe’s acquisition was partly due to his strong under-the-radar defensive metrics in right. Those weirdly cratered last year, even as his cannon arm increased his reputation. So it’s based on all that that I think Bloom will get a very good defensive RF, but I can only speculate who.

 

[dhappy42]

I agree there. There’s still time for Binelas and Hamilton but the deal did not work.

One major takeaway from it however was how the team values right field defense. Renfroe’s acquisition was partly due to his strong under-the-radar defensive metrics in right. Those weirdly cratered last year, even as his cannon arm increased his reputation. So it’s based on all that that I think Bloom will get a very good defensive RF, but I can only speculate who.

The Red Sox need a RF who is not only good defensively, but hits with power. HR production from the outfield has been miserable this year. As it happens, the top free agent next year is a HR-hitting right fielder.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Are “[pitcher] vs [team]” (or [division]) statistics generally predictive? I would think they’d be more of a backwards-looking thing since they’re usually pretty small samples and nowadays a team’s lineup usually changes from year to year - or week-to-week, in some cases. Ballpark-specific stats seem more credible to my thinking because there maybe the dimensions aren’t conducive to someone’s approach or maybe they don’t like the mound or the pregame spread or whatever.

This is a genuine question, by the way.

 

[Max Power]

Outfield hitting in general has dropped off this year. Looking at the leaders in OPS for all outfielders...

2022 MLB Player Hitting Stats | MLB.com

No great combos of power and availability. It also shows how ridiculous Judge's season has been. The second to last qualified batter, number 38 Trent Grisham, is closer to Mookie at #2 than Mookie is to Judge.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Are “[pitcher] vs [team]” (or [division]) statistics generally predictive?

This is a genuine question, by the way.

They are not.

 

[chawson]

They are not.

Can you point to any research on this?

Are “[pitcher] vs [team]” (or [division]) statistics generally predictive? I would think they’d be more of a backwards-looking thing since they’re usually pretty small samples and nowadays a team’s lineup usually changes from year to year - or week-to-week, in some cases. Ballpark-specific stats seem more credible to my thinking because there maybe the dimensions aren’t conducive to someone’s approach or maybe they don’t like the mound or the pregame spread or whatever.

This is a genuine question, by the way.

It's an interesting question. It seems intuitive that hitters who see pitchers frequently will better pick them up, but there's a lot more bubbling around in that equation than simple numbers vs. divisional opponents.

The ballpark-specific stuff is less contestable, and Pivetta doesn't stack up well there either.

2021-22
Pivetta at Fenway: 159.1 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9, 4.91 FIP
Pivetta elsewhere: 166.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.0 HR/9, 3.71 FIP

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Can you point to any research on this?

It's common sense. Player A sucks vs Pitcher B. Pitcher B sucks vs Team C. What happens when player A is traded to Team C? Not to mention the composition of a team changes every single year. Wearing a certain team jersey isn't going to make you good or bad vs certain players.

edit: Stadiums, sure.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I guess maybe a team’s analytics or scouting department could come up with a really strong plan against you? And in that case it wouldn’t matter so much who is in the lineup - provided they can actually execute that plan. But this is still an unsatisfactory explanation since it’s a copycat league and you’d think everyone would start doing the same thing, so why would one team benefit disproportionately? And why wouldn’t the pitcher’s team figure it out?

I know some teams have been better at picking up tipping or at stealing signs, so maybe that’s part of it. But a whole division?

 

[scottyno]

I'm sure you could find this data somewhere, but I would guess that pitchers in general pitch worse against their own division. When you see a guy 4-5 times instead of 1-2 times over a season you're going to have a better idea of what he throws and how to hit him.

Part of it also has to be that as we know the AL east is just better than other divisions. Over 2021 and 2022 those 8 teams combined for a 105 ops+