What does 2023 look like?

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm sure you could find this data somewhere, but I would guess that pitchers in general pitch worse against their own division. When you see a guy 4-5 times instead of 1-2 times over a season you're going to have a better idea of what he throws and how to hit him.

Part of it also has to be that as we know the AL east is just better than other divisions. Over 2021 and 2022 those 8 teams combined for a 105 ops+
Your theory makes sense. Not that dissimilar to the idea that the advantage tilts to the hitters the longer a playoff series goes because they've seen all the pitchers 2-3 times by game 6-7. I recall Schilling making a point of not pitching against any divisional opponents in spring training so they wouldn't get bonus looks at him.

Just another reason the more balanced schedule next year is a benefit. Of course, that goes for other AL East pitchers against Sox hitters too.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yes, yes you are. He's not good.
Right. I like following pitchers like him (at least if they start with the Sox) move up through the minors but the vast majority fail in the majors. He's really not even that spectacular as far as control pitchers go. A 6.2% BB%/25.3% K%. Bello in the minors was at 7.3% BB%/33.8% K%. Brandon Walter 4.8% BB%/33.5% K%. Kutter Crawford 8.0% BB%/27.7% K% (last year 5.2% BB%/34.4% K%).

So his BB% is mostly in line with other pitchers in the minors but his K% is about 8% lower. His numbers are somewhat in line with Kutter Crawford's career numbers but he reinvented himself last year. Crawford is also not that great. He's better than Seabold though.

I'm extremely biased when it comes to predicting pitcher success though. If they aren't striking out 30% of the batters in the minors or they have an insane K/BB ratio, I'm not going to like them.
 

catsooey

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The Red Sox need a RF who is not only good defensively, but hits with power. HR production from the outfield has been miserable this year. As it happens, the top free agent next year is a HR-hitting right fielder.

Unfortunately we had one but genius traded him. He was affordable, under control for multiple years, and boy could he rake.
 

scottyno

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Unfortunately we had one but genius traded him. He was affordable, under control for multiple years, and boy could he rake.
He wasn't a good defensive outfielder when they traded him and was only really going to be a bargain for 1 more year.
 

nighthob

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He wasn't a good defensive outfielder when they traded him and was only really going to be a bargain for 1 more year.
I didn’t like the trade, but mostly because Boston ate a dead weight deal and surrendered an actual asset and only got one marginal prospect to show for it (Binelas, Hamilton’s just organizational filler).
 

catsooey

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He wasn't a good defensive outfielder when they traded him and was only really going to be a bargain for 1 more year.

But we needed those bombs this year. Our season could have looked very different - and if we had signed Schwarber, we might have had a shot at the playoffs. The other reason is the damage of the JBJ trade, the financial cost - considering we’re 4 million over the luxury tax which could have been avoided. And now having a position you need to fill and spend a lot more money and/or prospects for. We turned a significant team asset and draw for fans into a gigantic black hole. I thought Chaim was here to bring in players like Renfroe. That trade more than any other convinced me that Chaim might be insane.
 

E5 Yaz

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We now have lurkers claiming Mac Jones is a head case and Chaim Bloom might be insane.
 

nvalvo

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Seabold turns 27 in January. Seems like a possible casualty of the much ballyhooed 40-man roster crunch.
Yup. I don't think he's all that likely to get protected — I think this present audition is to see if he's worth it — but there's enough there that a bad team will likely take a flier on him in Rule V to see if they can get a cheap pitcher for a few seasons.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yup. I don't think he's all that likely to get protected — I think this present audition is to see if he's worth it — but there's enough there that a bad team will likely take a flier on him in Rule V to see if they can get a cheap pitcher for a few seasons.
In order for Seabold to be available in the rule 5 draft, the Sox would have to DFA him, have him clear waivers, and then outright him to the minors. My guess is that if there's an interest in him via rule 5, he'd be claimed on waivers. In which case, the Sox would probably be wise to shop him around and trade him before taking the DFA route.
 

nvalvo

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But we needed those bombs this year. Our season could have looked very different - and if we had signed Schwarber, we might have had a shot at the playoffs. The other reason is the damage of the JBJ trade, the financial cost - considering we’re 4 million over the luxury tax which could have been avoided. And now having a position you need to fill and spend a lot more money and/or prospects for. We turned a significant team asset and draw for fans into a gigantic black hole. I thought Chaim was here to bring in players like Renfroe. That trade more than any other convinced me that Chaim might be insane.
This is a pretty wild post, man.

It was a calculated risk. It was an opportunity to buy low on JBJ and sell high on Renfroe and pocket a few prospects in the process. JBJ was only one season removed from his excellent 2020, and Renfroe was a poor defender despite the assists and looked like he might have just had a career year with the bat. Well, Renfroe seems to have improved on defense and maintained with the bat, and JBJ didn't bounce back as hoped.

I wonder if JBJ ended up in more of a prominent role than they had envisioned for him, i.e. that the FO wanted to acquire another outfielder (Pham, Suzuki, etc.) or else were more bullish on Duran seizing a starting spot, in which case JBJ's role would be as a defensive role model for Duran, to spell Kiké against lefties, and excellent late-inning defense. But then the FAs signed elsewhere, Duran struggled, and Kiké's hip/back issues held him out for a few months, and we ended up with Plan D.

Meanwhile, we have Binelas, who was great in high A and struggled in AA — don't look now, but he has a .932 OPS in his last ten games, so perhaps he's making an adjustment — as a 22 year old, and Hamilton, who has a .740 OPS with 12 HR and 70 steals in Portland. We'll know more next year, especially about Binelas, but those guys look like potential role players.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is a pretty wild post, man.

It was a calculated risk. It was an opportunity to buy low on JBJ and sell high on Renfroe and pocket a few prospects in the process. JBJ was only one season removed from his excellent 2020, and Renfroe was a poor defender despite the assists and looked like he might have just had a career year with the bat. Well, Renfroe seems to have improved on defense and maintained with the bat, and JBJ didn't bounce back as hoped.

I wonder if JBJ ended up in more of a prominent role than they had envisioned for him, i.e. that the FO wanted to acquire another outfielder (Pham, Suzuki, etc.) or else were more bullish on Duran seizing a starting spot, in which case JBJ's role would be as a defensive role model for Duran, to spell Kiké against lefties, and excellent late-inning defense. But then the FAs signed elsewhere, Duran struggled, and Kiké's hip/back issues held him out for a few months, and we ended up with Plan D.

Meanwhile, we have Binelas, who was great in high A and struggled in AA — don't look now, but he has a .932 OPS in his last ten games, so perhaps he's making an adjustment — as a 22 year old, and Hamilton, who has a .740 OPS with 12 HR and 70 steals in Portland. We'll know more next year, especially about Binelas, but those guys look like potential role players.
Hamilton finished the year on fire too. Slashed .387/.483/.600 over his last 19 games and 91 PA. 13/17 in sbs.
 

mikcou

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He wasn't a good defensive outfielder when they traded him and was only really going to be a bargain for 1 more year.
What do you mean by good? He's not as good as his tools suggest he should be (a 60+ arm and a 50/55 range guy) - normally that would add up to a legit plus defender in right, but hes only been merely average there because he does kinda clown around at times.

That said, that package is better defensively than any other player who has played out there this year since Bradley was DFAd. Focusing on his mental mistakes seems a lot like cutting off your nose to spite your face when he has a consistent history of being a legitimate solid average starting player.
 

chawson

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This is a pretty wild post, man.

It was a calculated risk. It was an opportunity to buy low on JBJ and sell high on Renfroe and pocket a few prospects in the process. JBJ was only one season removed from his excellent 2020, and Renfroe was a poor defender despite the assists and looked like he might have just had a career year with the bat. Well, Renfroe seems to have improved on defense and maintained with the bat, and JBJ didn't bounce back as hoped.

I wonder if JBJ ended up in more of a prominent role than they had envisioned for him, i.e. that the FO wanted to acquire another outfielder (Pham, Suzuki, etc.) or else were more bullish on Duran seizing a starting spot, in which case JBJ's role would be as a defensive role model for Duran, to spell Kiké against lefties, and excellent late-inning defense. But then the FAs signed elsewhere, Duran struggled, and Kiké's hip/back issues held him out for a few months, and we ended up with Plan D.

Meanwhile, we have Binelas, who was great in high A and struggled in AA — don't look now, but he has a .932 OPS in his last ten games, so perhaps he's making an adjustment — as a 22 year old, and Hamilton, who has a .740 OPS with 12 HR and 70 steals in Portland. We'll know more next year, especially about Binelas, but those guys look like potential role players.
Another factor that gets lost in this conversation is Refsnyder, who put up a truly great season at the plate.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1574777673099919361?s=46&t=3cp9yu15mNeDIy5g7oGuhA


We tend to view the swap as a strict bet Bloom made between Renfroe and JBJ, but I don't think that’s the whole story. Assuming everyone stayed healthy, clearing out Renfroe was necessary in order to give PAs to Duran, Cordero and Refsnyder. JBJ was a placeholder and the nominal starter, but he was hardly the long-term plan. One (or more) of those guys emerging was the long-term plan.

And look, one of them has. It seems likely to me that Bloom liked Refsnyder enough to give him 200 PAs or so at the MLB level. That likely influenced the decision to part with Renfroe because it wouldn’t have been possible with him here, playing as productively as he was last year. Now, Refsnyder is under team control two more seasons, more cheaply than Renfroe’s final two arb years, and he is somehow (despite his foibles in the Yankee infield years ago) a passable right fielder.

I’m not convinced he’s our starting right fielder next year, but he’s certainly made a pretty strong case to be.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I’m not convinced he’s our starting right fielder next year, but he’s certainly made a pretty strong case to be.
For 2023, maybe. In a year we were trying to compete, he shouldn't be penciled in as our starting RF to start the season.

It's 168 PA and a .392 BAbip. He'll also be 32 in March.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Refsnyder is the current version of Brock Holt. Solid bat who can play pretty much anywhere on the field, but not really suited to be a full-time starter at any one position. Can't imagine that anyone in the org viewed his ceiling as anything more than that. That's a type of player that Bloom has been trying to have on the roster since he got here, whether it's bringing in a player who had already demonstrated that versatility like Marwin Gonzalez, Kike Hernandez, Danny Santana, Yairo Munoz, or Refsnyder, or trying to create one by expanding the defensive experiences of guys like Arroyo, Dalbec or Franchy.

Refsnyder has a place on the 2023 roster, but it should not be as the starting RF or frankly as the regular starter at any specific position.
 

chawson

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For 2023, maybe. In a year we were trying to compete, he shouldn't be penciled in as our starting RF to start the season.

It's 168 PA and a .392 BAbip. He'll also be 32 in March.
That BABIP is high because he has a 28.9 line drive rate, which would be third-highest in baseball if he qualified, just ahead of Freddie Freeman.

It’s also a .373 expected wOBA (Devers’ 2022 wOBA is .371, by comparison), an 11.1 Barrel% (on par with C.J. Cron) and a solid 90.1 average exit velocity, so it’s not all luck.

His final numbers are a little skewed by handedness, but there’s some interesting stuff under the hood there too. He finished with a .436 wOBA vs. LHP (in 71 PA), which is fortunate based on his .340 expected wOBA there. It was the other way around vs. RHP. Refsnyder put up a very respectable .352 wOBA against them, belying an otherwise elite .413 expected wOBA.

He was always a bat first prospect, and had a well reported swing change with the Twins last year. He’s not young and I doubt he’s suddenly sprouted a Devers-caliber bat, but his year at the plate was much more good than lucky.
 

chawson

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Refsnyder is the current version of Brock Holt. Solid bat who can play pretty much anywhere on the field, but not really suited to be a full-time starter at any one position. Can't imagine that anyone in the org viewed his ceiling as anything more than that. That's a type of player that Bloom has been trying to have on the roster since he got here, whether it's bringing in a player who had already demonstrated that versatility like Marwin Gonzalez, Kike Hernandez, Danny Santana, Yairo Munoz, or Refsnyder, or trying to create one by expanding the defensive experiences of guys like Arroyo, Dalbec or Franchy.

Refsnyder has a place on the 2023 roster, but it should not be as the starting RF or frankly as the regular starter at any specific position.
I think that's how the Yankees envisioned him five years ago and he was a disaster at it, though Jon Abbey could say better than I. The Sox didn't play him anywhere on the infield this year, even when things got really ugly at first base, so the Holt comparison doesn't click with me. Plus, Brockie never put up a hitting year anywhere near as good as Refsnyder just did.
 

YTF

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But we needed those bombs this year. Our season could have looked very different - and if we had signed Schwarber, we might have had a shot at the playoffs. The other reason is the damage of the JBJ trade, the financial cost - considering we’re 4 million over the luxury tax which could have been avoided. And now having a position you need to fill and spend a lot more money and/or prospects for. We turned a significant team asset and draw for fans into a gigantic black hole. I thought Chaim was here to bring in players like Renfroe. That trade more than any other convinced me that Chaim might be insane.
28 "bombs" are 28 "bombs", but there is no guarantee that he hit them in this lineup. In addition to those 28 HR comes a total of 69 RBI. Obviously not all of them came from homers and while there is no argument that the Sox would have gotten better production with Renfrow, I'm not sure his presence has an overwhelming affect on the team's results.
 

scottyno

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But we needed those bombs this year. Our season could have looked very different - and if we had signed Schwarber, we might have had a shot at the playoffs. The other reason is the damage of the JBJ trade, the financial cost - considering we’re 4 million over the luxury tax which could have been avoided. And now having a position you need to fill and spend a lot more money and/or prospects for. We turned a significant team asset and draw for fans into a gigantic black hole. I thought Chaim was here to bring in players like Renfroe. That trade more than any other convinced me that Chaim might be insane.
Renfroe and Schwarber combined for about 4 WAR this year. We'll ignore that Schwarber didn't have a place to play on the Sox once JDM opted in, but no you add those 2 guys to the 2022 Sox and with all the injuries they had they still would have been nowhere near the playoffs.

Also, I'm pretty confused by this claim that Renfroe was a draw for fans. Or that they have to spend a lot more money to fill right field now. Whoever they sign could easily make less and be better than Renfroe in 2023, he isn't going to be that cheap.

What do you mean by good? He's not as good as his tools suggest he should be (a 60+ arm and a 50/55 range guy) - normally that would add up to a legit plus defender in right, but hes only been merely average there because he does kinda clown around at times.

That said, that package is better defensively than any other player who has played out there this year since Bradley was DFAd. Focusing on his mental mistakes seems a lot like cutting off your nose to spite your face when he has a consistent history of being a legitimate solid average starting player.
Agreed that he's an average outfielder which is fine, but it's average not good. That the Sox have played a bunch of bad defensive players in right besides JBJ in 2022 doesn't change the fact that they didn't trade a good defensive outfielder.
 

jon abbey

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I think that's how the Yankees envisioned him five years ago and he was a disaster at it, though Jon Abbey could say better than I.
I think with NY he was more of a Miguel Andujar type, a bat they wanted to give a chance to, but they couldn't figure out where to play him because he was kind of a butcher everywhere. NY gave up on him in 2017 though, that was a long time ago (and he has been in seven organizations in between NY and BOS, wow).
 

Daniel_Son

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But we needed those bombs this year. Our season could have looked very different - and if we had signed Schwarber, we might have had a shot at the playoffs. The other reason is the damage of the JBJ trade, the financial cost - considering we’re 4 million over the luxury tax which could have been avoided. And now having a position you need to fill and spend a lot more money and/or prospects for. We turned a significant team asset and draw for fans into a gigantic black hole. I thought Chaim was here to bring in players like Renfroe. That trade more than any other convinced me that Chaim might be insane.
In what universe does Kyle Schwarber mean the Sox are in the playoffs? Where would we play him? He's absolutely atrocious in right field and not much better at 1B.
 

catsooey

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This is a pretty wild post, man.

It was a calculated risk. It was an opportunity to buy low on JBJ and sell high on Renfroe and pocket a few prospects in the process. JBJ was only one season removed from his excellent 2020, and Renfroe was a poor defender despite the assists and looked like he might have just had a career year with the bat. Well, Renfroe seems to have improved on defense and maintained with the bat, and JBJ didn't bounce back as hoped.

I wonder if JBJ ended up in more of a prominent role than they had envisioned for him, i.e. that the FO wanted to acquire another outfielder (Pham, Suzuki, etc.) or else were more bullish on Duran seizing a starting spot, in which case JBJ's role would be as a defensive role model for Duran, to spell Kiké against lefties, and excellent late-inning defense. But then the FAs signed elsewhere, Duran struggled, and Kiké's hip/back issues held him out for a few months, and we ended up with Plan D.

Meanwhile, we have Binelas, who was great in high A and struggled in AA — don't look now, but he has a .932 OPS in his last ten games, so perhaps he's making an adjustment — as a 22 year old, and Hamilton, who has a .740 OPS with 12 HR and 70 steals in Portland. We'll know more next year, especially about Binelas, but those guys look like potential role players.

I don’t think it’s that wild. I was a big Chaim supporter at the beginning of 2021 but my opinion has completely changed. The Renfroe trade was one hell of a risk. This team couldn’t afford to lose a player like that. AA prospects are a huge gamble, and he removed a player that he needed here and now in order to do it. And the player he traded, I assumed, was the exact kind of player Chaim would hold on to - low cost, high value and multiple years of control. Moves like that to me are the type that “better work out”. If you gamble against better judgement fine, but you need to be right. That move cost us in so many ways. If he was planning on Duran being a success in order for this to work, that’s a major gamble. He already had a known, proven big league player. If Duran works out, that’s great, but making a move based on the presumption he’ll work out is not good thinking. Same thing with assuming JBJ would do anything other than what he did. And JBJ was my favorite player when he was here. Amazing talent and I always wanted him to pick up where he left off in May of 2016 when he was hitting the cover off the ball. But eventually I realized he just wasn’t going to figure it out at the plate. So at this point in 2022, expecting JBJ to be a comparable replacement was not sound thinking. I know nobody has a crystal ball, but this move was reckless and was a big nail in the coffin for our season this year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Renfroe and Schwarber combined for about 4 WAR this year. We'll ignore that Schwarber didn't have a place to play on the Sox once JDM opted in, but no you add those 2 guys to the 2022 Sox and with all the injuries they had they still would have been nowhere near the playoffs.

Also, I'm pretty confused by this claim that Renfroe was a draw for fans. Or that they have to spend a lot more money to fill right field now. Whoever they sign could easily make less and be better than Renfroe in 2023, he isn't going to be that cheap.



Agreed that he's an average outfielder which is fine, but it's average not good. That the Sox have played a bunch of bad defensive players in right besides JBJ in 2022 doesn't change the fact that they didn't trade a good defensive outfielder.
A lot of the discussion here was for the Sox to sign Schwarber and then trade JDM. Schwarber would have at least been a better bet to use the DH as a rotating spot than JDM. Both are butchers in the OF but at least from watching, Schwarber less so. Also, having him in LF in Fenway would have masked more of his shortcomings.
Another Spring Training (however shortened) at 1B would have been an option also for him.

Would be nice to have Schwarber inked in on the '23 team and have picked up a valuable trade piece from the JDM trade (he would have been able to get something valuable IMO from JDM after '21).

But not doing all this was quite defensible. The only honestly indefensible thing Bloom did was the JBJ-Renfroe thing. Short or long term I can't see it. Binelas likely will end up at AAAA level.
 

catsooey

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In what universe does Kyle Schwarber mean the Sox are in the playoffs? Where would we play him? He's absolutely atrocious in right field and not much better at 1B.
You think between Renfroe and Schwarber - just assuming we had kept them both - we couldn’t have gotten the last wild card spot at least? With the offense they bring to the table? And you’re acting like their defense is the worst in the league. Maybe not world class, but did you see the defense we had? JBJ aside, it couldn’t get much worse than what we had.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You think between Renfroe and Schwarber - just assuming we had kept them both - we couldn’t have gotten the last wild card spot at least? With the offense they bring to the table? And you’re acting like their defense is the worst in the league. Maybe not world class, but did you see the defense we had? JBJ aside, it couldn’t get much worse than what we had.
Offense was not the problem for the 2022 Red Sox. They have the 4th best scoring offense in the AL (10th in MLB) this season. Meanwhile they are 14th in the AL (25th in MLB) in runs allowed. This season went off the rails in July when nearly the entire rotation ended up on the IL. I don't think a little extra slugging would have overcome the AAA rotation they were forced to use (still are using to a lesser extent).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The pitching has been atrocious, only better than KC in the AL. You simply cannot have a good record with pitching this bad (Toronto has the worst pitching among good teams, and they are still 0.56 better than the Sox). One reliever with an ERA <3. One starter with an ERA <3, and he’s a free agent. The Sox are now 15-6 when Wacha starts, and 57-75 when anyone else starts. More offense would have helped (and seems to be what most are posting about in terms of 2023 improvements), but…pitching and defense.
 

mikcou

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Renfroe and Schwarber combined for about 4 WAR this year. We'll ignore that Schwarber didn't have a place to play on the Sox once JDM opted in, but no you add those 2 guys to the 2022 Sox and with all the injuries they had they still would have been nowhere near the playoffs.

Also, I'm pretty confused by this claim that Renfroe was a draw for fans. Or that they have to spend a lot more money to fill right field now. Whoever they sign could easily make less and be better than Renfroe in 2023, he isn't going to be that cheap.



Agreed that he's an average outfielder which is fine, but it's average not good. That the Sox have played a bunch of bad defensive players in right besides JBJ in 2022 doesn't change the fact that they didn't trade a good defensive outfielder.
Thats fine, but he'd have been the best OF on the team by a good margin and be a good bet to be the best in 2023 as well (we'll see how Kike bounces back - his career has generally been all over the place). There is danger in trading away solid average regulars on reasonable deals. Considerably inferior performance is the top one, which is exactly what occurred.

It wouldnt have mattered for this year - the whole year went to hell, but it was a strange move at the time and has aged poorly and may have carry-on impacts in 2023.
 

jon abbey

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You think between Renfroe and Schwarber - just assuming we had kept them both - we couldn’t have gotten the last wild card spot at least? With the offense they bring to the table? And you’re acting like their defense is the worst in the league. Maybe not world class, but did you see the defense we had? JBJ aside, it couldn’t get much worse than what we had.
Just for the record, 2022 bWAR:

Rob Refsnyder-1.3 (146 ABs)
Kyle Schwarber-1.3 (548 ABs)

Schwarber I don't think was a legit option once JDM opted in, I really am not sure Bloom could have gotten another team to take on his 1/19 for a fulltime DH (and if he could have gotten more on the open market, he likely would have opted out). Bloom almost certainly could have played Schwarber in the field and later traded JDM in June when he was still OPSing around 1.000, but can you imagine the pushback from the fan base if he had done that?
 

Daniel_Son

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You think between Renfroe and Schwarber - just assuming we had kept them both - we couldn’t have gotten the last wild card spot at least? With the offense they bring to the table? And you’re acting like their defense is the worst in the league. Maybe not world class, but did you see the defense we had? JBJ aside, it couldn’t get much worse than what we had.
Kyle Schwarber has -13 DRS for the 2022 season. That's good for #1,460 of 1,473 active players. Yes, it absolutely could be worse.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, a solid comparison for a June deal of a veteran DH on the last year of his deal is Edwin Encarnacion from SEA to NY a few years ago. In exchange, SEA got a 19 year old pitching prospect.
 

scottyno

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Would be nice to have Schwarber inked in on the '23 team and have picked up a valuable trade piece from the JDM trade (he would have been able to get something valuable IMO from JDM after '21).
Schwarber did not hit nearly well enough to be worth 20m a year as a DH, he didn't hit much better than JD did this season, and JD probably won't end up being worth even 1 WAR.

I also kind of doubt they could have got a valuable piece for 1 year of JD at 19m, if they could have then he would have opted out.
 

nighthob

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In what universe does Kyle Schwarber mean the Sox are in the playoffs? Where would we play him? He's absolutely atrocious in right field and not much better at 1B.
On the bright side he would have been no worse than the guys that Boston actually did play at 1B this year. And that would have come with hitting to boot. ;)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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On the bright side he would have been no worse than the guys that Boston actually did play at 1B this year. And that would have come with hitting to boot. ;)
Which may be true, but playing 1B full time did not seem to be something Schwarber was interested in doing, which is among the reasons he didn't stay in Boston. The tendency around here is to blame the team/GM when a free agent signs somewhere else, overlooking that the player has a say as well. It's not as simple as "they should have re-signed him".
 

Daniel_Son

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On the bright side he would have been no worse than the guys that Boston actually did play at 1B this year. And that would have come with hitting to boot. ;)
I seem to recall Schwarber getting a standing ovation for a pretty standard putout at 1B last year. All in good fun, sure, but on this year's losing team I can see that getting old really fast.

And once Casas comes up, where do you put him? 20 million per year for a full-time DH who's currently hitting .214 and leading the majors in strikeouts (with 42 homers, to be fair) for the next 3-4 years doesn't seem like the best use of resources. And it doesn't change the fact that adding 1.3 WAR at 1B likely doesn't put them in the playoffs this year - pitching and defense did them in, and Schwarber contributes to neither area.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Schwarber in LF and Verdugo in RF would have certainly been better than the Jackie Bradley experience (and then Kyle could have moved to DH full time next year). I don’t know that Schwarber’s contract is one you’d want long term but that’s pretty much true of most free agent contracts.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
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Dec 7, 2008
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Schwarber in LF and Verdugo in RF would have certainly been better than the Jackie Bradley experience (and then Kyle could have moved to DH full time next year). I don’t know that Schwarber’s contract is one you’d want long term but that’s pretty much true of most free agent contracts.
Verdugo is a -1 DRS in 873 innings in left and a -3 in 366 innings in right. Pham is a -3 in 362 innings in left. As someone else posted earlier Schwarber is a -13 in 1101 innings in left for the Phillies. JBJ was +6 in 525 innings in right with Boston.

So when you move all that around you're going from -4 in left to -13 and from +3 to -10 or so. Even if we assume Schwarber wouldn't be quite that bad at Fenway and that Verdugo wouldn't be quite that bad if he had been playing right all year that's around a 20 run loss of defensive value, so I don't think it's even a certainty that they would have been better with Schwarber instead of JBJ, and if they were it wouldn't have been much better.
 

jon abbey

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Sure, but in this case the only point would’ve been to clear JDM’s salary and open the DH roster spot.
Some people were saying BOS could get a good prospect back for a year of JDM, that's what I was pushing back on there.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
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Jul 20, 2005
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If the last couple of weeks have been auditions for bullpen roles next year, the big winners appear to be...

Matt Barnes
John Schreiber

And that's it. Houck will probably be in the pen and Whitlock in the rotation, but 3 or 4 other guys are going to have to come from outside the organization to have an acceptable relief staff next year.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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If the last couple of weeks have been auditions for bullpen roles next year, the big winners appear to be...

Matt Barnes
John Schreiber

And that's it. Houck will probably be in the pen and Whitlock in the rotation, but 3 or 4 other guys are going to have to come from outside the organization to have an acceptable relief staff next year.
Zack Kelly has been really good. He’s given up runs in two outings, and one of those included an inning with three infield singles and a sac fly. His FIP is 2.55. I think he’s a lock for next year’s pen, as is Taylor if he’s healthy enough to be tendered a contract.

Hate to say it but there’s a good shot Brasier returns too.
 

mikcou

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Schwarber did not hit nearly well enough to be worth 20m a year as a DH, he didn't hit much better than JD did this season, and JD probably won't end up being worth even 1 WAR.

I also kind of doubt they could have got a valuable piece for 1 year of JD at 19m, if they could have then he would have opted out.
Schwarber has been a materially better hitter than JD this year.
  • Schwarber - 214/314/487; 344 wOBA; 122 OPS+
  • JD - 270/339/433; 336 wOBA; 112 OPS+
Schwarber has been worth 1.8 fWAR and 1.3 WAR bWAR despite his awful fielding adventure. He'd be worth more as a regular DH - hes been less valuable defensively than JD - hes just that bad in the OF.

4/79 for a guy who is a reasonable bet to be a 1.5-2.5 win a year player over the life of the a pretty short contract focused around anticipated prime is a pretty reasonable use of money. The business case for Schwarber was never about 2022, but about locking up a clearly above average bat when all of the other clearly above average bats were in flux in the next year or two.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
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Dec 7, 2008
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Schwarber has been a materially better hitter than JD this year.
  • Schwarber - 214/314/487; 344 wOBA; 122 OPS+
  • JD - 270/339/433; 336 wOBA; 112 OPS+
Schwarber has been worth 1.8 fWAR and 1.3 WAR bWAR despite his awful fielding adventure. He'd be worth more as a regular DH - hes been less valuable defensively than JD - hes just that bad in the OF.
Roughly 10% better as a hitter over a full season, and it'll be less after today, isn't really materially better, but I guess minds can vary. He has played 15 more games, which is something I guess, but again wouldn't have made a huge difference.
 

Sox Puppet

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Schwarber has been a materially better hitter than JD this year.
  • Schwarber - 214/314/487; 344 wOBA; 122 OPS+
  • JD - 270/339/433; 336 wOBA; 112 OPS+
Schwarber has been worth 1.8 fWAR and 1.3 WAR bWAR despite his awful fielding adventure. He'd be worth more as a regular DH - hes been less valuable defensively than JD - hes just that bad in the OF.

4/79 for a guy who is a reasonable bet to be a 1.5-2.5 win a year player over the life of the a pretty short contract focused around anticipated prime is a pretty reasonable use of money. The business case for Schwarber was never about 2022, but about locking up a clearly above average bat when all of the other clearly above average bats were in flux in the next year or two.

Hunter Renfroe is currently at .253/.316/.494 with a 126 OPS+. He's racked up 2.6 WAR on the year so far. I'm guessing you wouldn't want him at $20M per year.
 

mikcou

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Hunter Renfroe is currently at .253/.316/.494 with a 126 OPS+. He's racked up 2.6 WAR on the year so far. I'm guessing you wouldn't want him at $20M per year.
Thats pretty much going market rate. Whether its worth it to pay market rate is heavily dependent on what the rest of the roster with the caveat that no team can pay everyone market rates. Schwarber has been a better hitter over the course of his career - this year is basically Schwarber's career. Renfroe is posing his best OPS+ of his career.

If you are asking me if i'd give Renfroe the 4/79 that Schwarber received after 2023. No, I dont think Renfroe will age well into his mid/late 30s issue. Renfroe would be 32 in the first year of that potential deal; Schwarber will be 32 in the last year of his. If you're asking whether in some hypothetical world, I'd pay 1/$20M to have Renfroe on the roster next year, then absolutely given the major question marks on the roster and especially the OF.

Roughly 10% better as a hitter over a full season, and it'll be less after today, isn't really materially better, but I guess minds can vary. He has played 15 more games, which is something I guess, but again wouldn't have made a huge difference.
Fair enough - given the distribution of batters are pretty tight between a 90-110 OPS+, value significantly increases as you escape that the meaty party of the curve. No hitter was going to make a difference this season, but the value wasnt really 2022 when they still had JD it was locking in a good bat at a time where their top 3 remaining bats on the roster had serious long term question marks (JD - age and Xander and Devers' contract situation). Perhaps they are convinced they will sign at least one of the two.
 

circus catch

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Nov 6, 2009
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I'm not seeing this mentioned anywhere, but my primary concern for 2023 today is the Red Sox Spring Training Site. Right now, it looks like the eye wall of Category 4 Hurricane Ian is heading straight for the left field wall at Jet Blue Park. I get it that the primary concern is the people of Ft Myers (I'm a Florida resident), but that park is not in a good place today.

Pitching and more pitching are my primary concerns for Opening Day.