What does 2023 look like?

Red(s)HawksFan

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How much of an asset is it, though? The Sox didn’t have to get much to get him, after all. He’s a 1-1.5 war 1b with no power who is 33 in October. He’s cheap, but the team can’t just punt at 1b and the of next year again and expect to be good. As a backup 1b, he’d be fine, but the team doesn’t need two LH 1b who can’t hit LH.

I feel like the team is trying to make too many cute deals, like with JBJ, Paxton, and now Hosmer. You don’t get extra credit for overly complicated deals that don’t help the team .
He's an asset because he can play a competent defensive 1B with a slightly above league average bat (he has a 109 OPS+ this year), which is something they haven't had since they traded Moreland. Keeping him next year would absolutely not be punting at 1B and it's ridiculous to suggest that it would be.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I would think Hosmer is in their plans for next year, at least as a platoon/bench guy if Casas makes the team out of shooting spring training, especially given the friendship between the two.
 

scottyno

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How much of an asset is it, though? The Sox didn’t have to get much to get him, after all. He’s a 1-1.5 war 1b with no power who is 33 in October. He’s cheap, but the team can’t just punt at 1b and the of next year again and expect to be good. As a backup 1b, he’d be fine, but the team doesn’t need two LH 1b who can’t hit LH.

I feel like the team is trying to make too many cute deals, like with JBJ, Paxton, and now Hosmer. You don’t get extra credit for overly complicated deals that don’t help the team .
Having a 1-1.5 war player for 700k is a pretty huge asset. If that's what he still is next year it isn't a punt, it's a really nice value that gives you money to spend on their other needs.

I also don't see how that deal is at all similar to JBJ or Paxton, there's pretty much no downside and pretty much no argument that having him under team control for the minimum doesn't help the team. It's been a week and he's already helping the team.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He's an asset because he can play a competent defensive 1B with a slightly above league average bat (he has a 109 OPS+ this year), which is something they haven't had since they traded Moreland. Keeping him next year would absolutely not be punting at 1B and it's ridiculous to suggest that it would be.
Being an above average offensive player at 1b isn’t a massive achievement. Hosmer ranks 15th among the 17 qualified 1b in ops, 15th in slg, 13 in obp. His defensive metrics are also below average. He’s an upgrade over Dalbec / Franchy, for sure, but if you are starting him at 1b and have an OF with a mix of Verdugo, Pham, Duran types than the team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs.
 

scottyno

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Being an above average offensive player at 1b isn’t a massive achievement. Hosmer ranks 15th among the 17 qualified 1b in ops, 15th in slg, 13 in obp. His defensive metrics are also below average. He’s an upgrade over Dalbec / Franchy, for sure, but if you are starting him at 1b and have an OF with a mix of Verdugo, Pham, Duran types than the team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs.
They have $100m to spend. If Hosmer is the 1b they didn't spend it there. If Verdugo, Duran, Pham is the OF they didn't spend it there. They aren't going to spend a huge amount on catcher because pretty much no one does. So in that scenario they made huge upgrades to the pitching staff, signed a big name shortstop, and possibly another big time hitter to DH.
 

mikcou

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Oh, I wasn't arguing that the listing should be their final lineup. I was pointing out they already have some players that could be here in 2023 and 2024. The question is - who do they hold onto, who do they trade, and who do they try to sign to fill gaps until their lower minors "pipeline" begins to cluster good prospects closer to ML playing time.

Pitching:
The rotation for 2023 looks like there's little mandatory upgrade. (That can change if two or more of those players suffer 2023 season-impacting injuries, of course. It can also become a more solid risk if Bello puts on an amazing September this year.) Since we were hit with so many injuries this year, and relied on so many AAA starters (and bobbled Whitlock and Houck), it's hard to project this year onto next year. We'll probably have a lot of turnover with players coming in (Sale/Paxton) or having a full season in the rotation (Whitlock?) as other players leave (Eovaldi?, Wacha, Hill).
Even with all the troubles, we're not all that far off average in many categories - so the starting pitching hasn't actually been the worst part of the current season. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-starter-pitching.shtml

The bullpen looks like it has some live arms. Those should be augmented by anyone taking a step forward this year, or the odd live arm they find in 2023 spring training. But most importantly, augmented by a sure-thing (insofar as you can) arm or two via trade or FA. And that needs to happen: because by talent or usage or key injury we're a bottom 3 bullpen in most categories: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml

Overall, I'd say for pitching they're going to need a few solid trades or FA signings. . .but with their budget that should be possible.

Position Players:
I'd disagree with your assessment mostly in terms of the import of player quality.

The first tier holds Devers (or trade replacement), Story, Casas. (I don't know why anyone wants to downplay Casas - if we traded Devers for an identical player to Casas with a different name, I'd expect that would be seen as an amazingly good trade.)
They are your 3 center bats.

The second tier holds players who are not actually fungible. Meaning, if averageish OF and 1B grew on trees, we would have traded peanuts for those mystery-fungible-guys to bolster the club for the stretch run this year. This tier holds Hosmer, Verdugo, Arroyo. Players who have shown they also might stick at this level are Duran, McGuire. They have SSS or are works in progress, but they haven't flamed out or established themselves as sub-standard ML players.
These are your line-up lengtheners and table setters. And not having guys of that sort of quality didn't help us at all this year. But even so, we've managed to be a top 5 offense in the AL this year in terms of producing runs. (Shocking, I know.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-standard-batting.shtml

The third tier are players who we have control of who have very limited roles or some already well-established flaws in their game they are unlikely to grow out of: Dalbec, Franchy. Or younger players who have seemed to have significantly stalled, like Downs. Lottery tickets at best at this point.

The fourth tier are your actual fungible guys are Yolmer Sanchez types - maybe Jaylin Davis and Stewart at AAA. That's what's easily available. In practice there's probably not much difference between tier 3 and 4. . .except that you have pay an acquisition cost to get tier 3 guys - due to their potential upside.

And then we have rando-prospects on the way up who have a chance to be the one who gets hot and makes the transition to ML. Valdez might be a guy who cracks the lineup due to his bat and becomes a quasi-DH. I wouldn't plan around that, but if he has a hot August in AAA and gets a cup-of-coffee call-up, there's always the possibility he makes the team in spring training.

So anyway, we'd have a 2023 lineup of:
Duran-Casas-Devers-Story-Verdugo-Hosmer-Arroyo-McGuire-X(OF).​

Which is viable. And you'd have $120 million to spend on free agents, with an eye toward upgrading Arroyo at SS/2B, catcher, or picking up an established-quality bat to DH.

There is no reason they can't be competitive in 2023 and 2024.

And there is no reason why 2023 has to be a "bridge year."
1. I dont think its all surprising that an offense with Devers/Bogaerts and JD Martinez is in the top 5. The entire point of this was in response to a roster that had none of them.

2. I'd be pretty pissed if they gave up Devers and the sole return was someone like Casas and honestly, I really like Casas - theres just a pretty reasonable question of how good he can really be. A first basemen needs to hit a lot to be a star - he could do that, but he historically hasnt - mostly because he hasnt consistently translated his raw power to in game. That smells like Mookie trade 2.0.

3.Its funny that you mention Hosmer - hes been available for practically nothing for the past year if anyone was willing to take his salary off the Padres hands. Jay Groome of all people got the Padres to pay $42M of his salary. Given market of $8-$9M a win, that suggests most teams think hes a sub 1 win guy (lines up roughly with fangraphs model).

4. Where are you coming up with $120M - is that assuming spending up to the $230M threshold. I have: (i) Sale ($27.5M); (ii) Story ($22.5M); (iii) Barnes ($9M); Whitlock ($5M) for a total of $64M of committed contracts. Its $15M for benefits +$5M for non 26 man 40 man spots so ~$85M. IF they want to keep both Sawamura and Paxton that is another ~$15M for $100M. So $132M of space before any arbitration deals. Devers is likely to get $17.5M+ as an arb 3 ($11M in 22); Arroyo $2.5M as an arb2 (was $1.2M); Pivetta $5M as an arb 2 (was $2.7M); Verdugo $5M as an arb 2 (was $3.7M). McGuire is arb eligible as well for the first time, call that $2M so a total of $32M of arb salaries. So $100M of space with Sawamura (who I think is definitely on the team) and Paxton or $115M without I'd also be surprised if they end up pushing right at the cap - figure they target $175-200M - there really arent that many obvious targets for significant money.

Lets put some thresholds around these categories because they seem awfully optimistic: 1) clearly above average; 2) around league average starter; 3) clearly below average league starter/should be backup 4) fungible/fungible with upside. If you want it to be five, thats fine too - I dont see any material difference between the 27 year old Bobby Dalbec; the 28 year old to be Franchy Cordero and Yolmer Sanchez - none of them are contributing meaningfully. For the sake of simplicity, using fwar (yes bWAR will have some differences - Hosmer looks a good deal better, but Verdugo looks much worse). Fangraphs models to approximately 2 wins being league average so lets use 3+ for clearly above average and anything in 1.5-3 being around the league average category.

1) Clearly above average: Devers (consistent 4+, could threaten in the 6 this year), Story (extrapolated 4 this season, historically 3.5-5). Thats it. If Devers is gone, its just Story. Casas could be, but honestly the bat needs to be really good to get there. Hes a really good bet to be in the 2-2.5, but going to 3+ will require him to tap into more of the raw power he has than he has in the minors.

2) League average: Verdugo (2022E is around 1.5 WAR; has historically been ~2 in full seasons - 2019 and 2021); Casas (2-2.5 wins seems a reasonable estimate for his early career. That is roughly Matt Olson's 2022 270/330/500 line with weaker defense);

3) Below average starters/bench guys: Hosmer (has trended in the .5-1 win range for the past 3 years); Jarren Duran (has been pretty bad, but could see him incrementally improving to a 1 win guy);Reece Mcguire (prototype strong defense/weak bat of the a weak side catcher platoon); Christian Arroyo (always hurt, could actually be a solid average player if he stayed healthy and they committed to playing him at 2B

4) Pretty much every other position player who is on the 40 man.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Being an above average offensive player at 1b isn’t a massive achievement. Hosmer ranks 15th among the 17 qualified 1b in ops, 15th in slg, 13 in obp. His defensive metrics are also below average. He’s an upgrade over Dalbec / Franchy, for sure, but if you are starting him at 1b and have an OF with a mix of Verdugo, Pham, Duran types than the team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs.
Where did I call it a massive achievement? My point was it isn't a punt to go into 2023 with him as the starting 1B (the outfield is an entirely separate discussion). I'd be curious what the great alternative is that Bloom should be pursuing instead. The free agent class of 1B isn't exactly eye-popping, and Casas' presence is potentially a hindrance when it comes to signing one of the better options.
 

gattman

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Being an above average offensive player at 1b isn’t a massive achievement. Hosmer ranks 15th among the 17 qualified 1b in ops, 15th in slg, 13 in obp. His defensive metrics are also below average. He’s an upgrade over Dalbec / Franchy, for sure, but if you are starting him at 1b and have an OF with a mix of Verdugo, Pham, Duran types than the team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs.
But it’s all relative, right? For the immediate term, he’s a significant upgrade over Franchy (I mean, who isn’t?). For the slightly longer term, he’s either a good insurance policy/reserve or someone they can readily trade.

He’s only the starting 1B for now. That is not likely to be the case for very long. (Possibly only for another week or so).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Where did I call it a massive achievement? My point was it isn't a punt to go into 2023 with him as the starting 1B (the outfield is an entirely separate discussion). I'd be curious what the great alternative is that Bloom should be pursuing instead. The free agent class of 1B isn't exactly eye-popping, and Casas' presence is potentially a hindrance when it comes to signing one of the better options.
How about just going with Casas, and trading prospect depth for a RH backup?

And I think the 1b/of discussion has to go together; it’s related. If they had an offensive minded OF, than I think they could settle for a low salary, low ceiling guy like Hosmer at first. If the dream of extending Devers, re-signing Boagerts, and signing Judge comes true than they could probably survive with Hosmer at first.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If they can improve at 1B, by all means they should do so. Don't get me wrong.

But going into 2023 with Hosmer at 1B (and letting Casas force his way into the lineup) is not a punt, no matter what the rest of the lineup looks like. That's the only point I was trying to make.
 

E5 Yaz

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If they can improve at 1B, by all means they should do so. Don't get me wrong.

But going into 2023 with Hosmer at 1B (and letting Casas force his way into the lineup) is not a punt, no matter what the rest of the lineup looks like. That's the only point I was trying to make.
Exactly, and it allows them to spend offseason money on other holes
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Having a 1-1.5 war player for 700k is a pretty huge asset. If that's what he still is next year it isn't a punt, it's a really nice value that gives you money to spend on their other needs.

I also don't see how that deal is at all similar to JBJ or Paxton, there's pretty much no downside and pretty much no argument that having him under team control for the minimum doesn't help the team. It's been a week and he's already helping the team.
The downside is giving 500 to 700 plate appearances to at 1B/DH to a barely-above-replacement-value player who is on the downside of his career. Yeah, he's an upgrade on Cordero, but not that much of one, and the goal is not wins-above-replacement/dollar, but simply wins. Hosmer is not a player who is going to help us win ballgames.
 

YTF

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Being an above average offensive player at 1b isn’t a massive achievement. Hosmer ranks 15th among the 17 qualified 1b in ops, 15th in slg, 13 in obp. His defensive metrics are also below average. He’s an upgrade over Dalbec / Franchy, for sure, but if you are starting him at 1b and have an OF with a mix of Verdugo, Pham, Duran types than the team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs.
Hosmer and Pham by no stretch of the imagination are THE answer moving forward, but they are potentially parts of the puzzle. SSS and all, but Hosmer and Pham have already improved the JBJ, Franchy, Bobby D situation and aside from the obvious, the construct of the batting order is better with Duran's bat out of the lead of spot and Dalbec's bat out of the lineup.
 

YTF

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The downside is giving 500 to 700 plate appearances to at 1B/DH to a barely-above-replacement-value player who is on the downside of his career. Yeah, he's an upgrade on Cordero, but not that much of one, and the goal is not wins-above-replacement/dollar, but simply wins. Hosmer is not a player who is going to help us win ballgames.
Who's been advocating for this?
 

scottyno

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The downside is giving 500 to 700 plate appearances to at 1B/DH to a barely-above-replacement-value player who is on the downside of his career. Yeah, he's an upgrade on Cordero, but not that much of one, and the goal is not wins-above-replacement/dollar, but simply wins. Hosmer is not a player who is going to help us win ballgames.
He already is helping them win ballgames, and he's a pretty massive upgrade over Cordero. And if you have guys like him signed for the minimum who you have a pretty good idea what they're going to be then it means you can spend the rest of your money in other areas.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Who's been advocating for this?
If Casas doesn't work out, who gets the PA? If Hosmer isn't the fallback plan, why is he on the team in 2023 to begin with?

And if Hosmer is the back up plan, that means there is no one else to get the PA. I guess they could trade for a 1b during the season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Hosmer looks better doing it; but he’s been no better an offensive player in his limited time for the Sox than Dalbec or Cordero was; and the idea that he’s a good defensive player isn’t really supported by the data. And I think that’s the concern; that he will get a lot of rope and a lot of playing time while a better and just as inexpensive an option exists.
 

scottyno

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If Casas doesn't work out, who gets the PA? If Hosmer isn't the fallback plan, why is he on the team in 2023 to begin with?

And if Hosmer is the back up plan, that means there is no one else to get the PA. I guess they could trade for a 1b during the season.
If Casas isn't on the major league roster to start 2023 then it's likely Hosmer vs righties and a platoon guy vs lefties, possibly Dalbec.
 

gattman

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The Hosmer trade is like the Pham & McGuire ones in the sense that it provides flexibility & options beyond this year. That’s what I expect Bloom to do— the more options they have, the greater the chance that one (or more) of them hit.

And if they can cost control the back end of the roster then more $ they can spend elsewhere.
 

E5 Yaz

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Projecting next season's player usage based on what players are on the roster at the moment is a useless exercise
 

YTF

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If Casas doesn't work out, who gets the PA? If Hosmer isn't the fallback plan, why is he on the team in 2023 to begin with?

And if Hosmer is the back up plan, that means there is no one else to get the PA. I guess they could trade for a 1b during the season.
Hosmer may well be the fallback plan. I don't know that see's him getting 500-700 PAs. Considering the amount of rope Dalbec has been afforded, I think Casas gets a fair amount of time to grow into the position.
 

scottyno

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Hosmer looks better doing it; but he’s been no better an offensive player in his limited time for the Sox than Dalbec or Cordero was; and the idea that he’s a good defensive player isn’t really supported by the data. And I think that’s the concern; that he will get a lot of rope and a lot of playing time while a better and just as inexpensive an option exists.
So you're just ignoring that in a grand total of 26 PAs he's hit 4 balls that would have often been home runs and they ended up 1/4 with a double? He's hit the ball great, if he keeps hitting like that he's going to have much better results than either of those 2 have had this year.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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So you're just ignoring that in a grand total of 26 PAs he's hit 4 balls that would have often been home runs and they ended up 1/4 with a double? He's hit the ball great, if he keeps hitting like that he's going to have much better results than either of those 2 have had this year.
Sadly, a very low bar.
 

Rovin Romine

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Hosmer should probably be DFA'd in advance of the December 40-man roster deadline.
I very much doubt that happens.

Look at it this way - Casas is the presumptive 1B next year. It's on-schedule for him, and he's the big piece for the Sox to get value out of from all his pre-arb and arb years. He's by all accounts a decent 1B, so there's no defensive reason to move him to DH only.

Casas has a L/R split - he's very vulnerable to LHP. He'll have to do some on the job learning.

His backup is currently Hosmer, who can also play a defensive 1B at least passably. Hosmer also has a split - but he has been able to hit ML LHP somewhat passibly. So he's not an ideal platoon with Casas, but he makes some sense there. Especially if Casas is injured or has a great deal of trouble acclimating against all ML hitters.

If Hosmer does not fill that role, you have to find someone very Hosmer-like (ideally with a platoon split.) And while I'm not opposed to the Sox finding that type of 1B backup, I think it would be foolish to DFA Hosmer for nothing.

I just don't get the irrationality he seems to bring out.

He costs us nothing at this point. He's free.
 

BaseballJones

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The downside is giving 500 to 700 plate appearances to at 1B/DH to a barely-above-replacement-value player who is on the downside of his career. Yeah, he's an upgrade on Cordero, but not that much of one, and the goal is not wins-above-replacement/dollar, but simply wins. Hosmer is not a player who is going to help us win ballgames.
Last 3 years:

Cordero: 422 pa, 7 hr, 40 rbi, .208/.277/.337/.614, 67 ops+, 1 homer every 60.3 pa, 371 chances, 12 errors (1 error every 31 chances)
Hosmer: 1116 pa, 29 hr, 143 rbi, ..271/.335/.410/.745, 110 ops+, 1 homer every 38.5 pa, 1974 chances, 14 errors (1 error every 141 chances)

Based on all this, yeah, Hosmer is a significant upgrade over Franchy.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Some seem to be assuming that if Hosmer is on the team next year, he’ll get playing time at the expense of Casas, and I don’t think there’s anything to suggest that’d be the case unless Casas is not the out-of-the-box contributor everyone is hoping for. But for that to happen, I think we’d have to be talking a Tork-level bombing.
 

gattman

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This Hosmer discussion (at least on one side) is a bit bizarre to me. They got a perfectly cromulent player for essentially free. This is basically arbitrage ( on a small scale, of course).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Some seem to be assuming that if Hosmer is on the team next year, he’ll get playing time at the expense of Casas, and I don’t think there’s anything to suggest that’d be the case unless Casas is not the out-of-the-box contributor everyone is hoping for. But for that to happen, I think we’d have to be talking a Tork-level bombing.
Hosmer is the baseline. If Casas can be as good as Hosmer right out of the gate, and that's tolerable because we all expect/hope he will eventually be better, so be it. Give him the ball and let him run with it. Suffer the growing pains in the meantime (calling it that because apparently Hosmer is not good enough for some folks).

I have my doubts that that will be the case though. We've seen a bunch of recent examples of rookies not making a smooth transition to the big leagues (Dalbec, Duran, etc). Seems like the guys that make the jump smoothly are the ones that absolutely light it up in AAA and force their way up. Casas is playing well, but I'm not sure I'd call it lighting it up (.834 OPS). For contrast, Devers had a 1.047 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.819 OPS in first big league season). Betts had a .920 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.812 OPS in first big league season). Bogaerts had an .822 OPS in AAA before his call up (.684 OPS in first big league season). And we've talked about the gap between AAA and MLB being bigger now than ever. I'd be a lot more confident about Casas being an immediate impact kind of guy, or even Hosmer+, if he showed more dominance for Worcester first.

Which is why I'd hold on to Hosmer at least through the winter. Wait until Casas forces the issue and Hosmer becomes redundant, then deal him. But not before.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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This Hosmer discussion (at least on one side) is a bit bizarre to me. They got a perfectly cromulent player for essentially free. This is basically arbitrage ( on a small scale, of course).
It is not arbitrage. He is not a perfectly cromulent player. Several posters have repeatedly cited data that show that Hosmer is subpar as both a hitter and fielder, yet many posters here are eager to wish away that information because he is an Established Major Leaguer or something. And because now he's our Established Major Leaguer instead of San Diego's.

Yes, there is virtually no downside to Hosmer financially. It is impossible to dispute that. Yes, he is better than Cordero by almost every measure and probably better than Dalbec too. But he is not a solution to what is ailing this team. If Hosmer is a significant part of next year's roster, that's going to Indicate that we're not really that likely to field a competitive team.

Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
 

moondog80

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Which is why I'd hold on to Hosmer at least through the winter. Wait until Casas forces the issue and Hosmer becomes redundant, then deal him. But not before.
Yes, exactly. And if/when Casas wins the job, if Hosmer is OK being a part time player/backup/pinch hitter (and can still perform in that role), I have no problem keeping him. But as stated, I will worry if the plan out of the gate is for both Hosmer and Casas to play full time, because what would the backup plan be if one or both doesn't work out? Hosmer needs to be plan B, not plan A.
 

scottyno

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Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
He was a punchline entirely because of his contract. If the Padres were paying him the minimum it would have been a great signing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It is not arbitrage. He is not a perfectly cromulent player. Several posters have repeatedly cited data that show that Hosmer is subpar as both a hitter and fielder, yet many posters here are eager to wish away that information because he is an Established Major Leaguer or something. And because now he's our Established Major Leaguer instead of San Diego's.

Yes, there is virtually no downside to Hosmer financially. It is impossible to dispute that. Yes, he is better than Cordero by almost every measure and probably better than Dalbec too. But he is not a solution to what is ailing this team. If Hosmer is a significant part of next year's roster, that's going to Indicate that we're not really that likely to field a competitive team.

Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
I guess I don't understand how a "subpar" hitter can post an OPS+ over 100 in the last three seasons, and only once in the last eight dip below 100. To me, the joke with the Padres was that they were paying a good player like he was a great player. Hosmer at $20M+ a year is a joke. Hosmer at $700K is a deal...both in that there's a low bar to get valuable production and that it's easy to move/dump if and when a better option comes along.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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4,392
It is not arbitrage. He is not a perfectly cromulent player. Several posters have repeatedly cited data that show that Hosmer is subpar as both a hitter and fielder, yet many posters here are eager to wish away that information because he is an Established Major Leaguer or something. And because now he's our Established Major Leaguer instead of San Diego's.

Yes, there is virtually no downside to Hosmer financially. It is impossible to dispute that. Yes, he is better than Cordero by almost every measure and probably better than Dalbec too. But he is not a solution to what is ailing this team. If Hosmer is a significant part of next year's roster, that's going to Indicate that we're not really that likely to field a competitive team.

Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
I’m on your side here, but nobody is calling it a brilliant move. At best people have been calling it an asset
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
It is not arbitrage. He is not a perfectly cromulent player. Several posters have repeatedly cited data that show that Hosmer is subpar as both a hitter and fielder, yet many posters here are eager to wish away that information because he is an Established Major Leaguer or something. And because now he's our Established Major Leaguer instead of San Diego's.

Yes, there is virtually no downside to Hosmer financially. It is impossible to dispute that. Yes, he is better than Cordero by almost every measure and probably better than Dalbec too. But he is not a solution to what is ailing this team. If Hosmer is a significant part of next year's roster, that's going to Indicate that we're not really that likely to field a competitive team.

Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
No one is calling for this.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
5,740
Agree that young players all seem to struggle quite a bit out of the gate. Seems like letting Casas struggle some now, in relatively low stakes, might be a good idea, no? Of course, maybe he doesn’t have to struggle and if he has more success in Worcester the next few months, he will be more ready for the bigs? Certainly can see reasonable arguments both ways.

Planning for Hosmer and Casas as the 1b men next year is fine, but seems a little weird in that they are both Lh hitters who struggle with Lh pitching. Seems less than ideal. But having an actual backup 1b is progress.

Hosmer is an average-ish hitter, but the team should aim higher at 1b, I think that’s the argument. Hosmer’s stats are fine when looking at all players, but at the low end of regular 1b.
 

gattman

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
207
Silver Spring, MD
It is not arbitrage. He is not a perfectly cromulent player. Several posters have repeatedly cited data that show that Hosmer is subpar as both a hitter and fielder, yet many posters here are eager to wish away that information because he is an Established Major Leaguer or something. And because now he's our Established Major Leaguer instead of San Diego's.

Yes, there is virtually no downside to Hosmer financially. It is impossible to dispute that. Yes, he is better than Cordero by almost every measure and probably better than Dalbec too. But he is not a solution to what is ailing this team. If Hosmer is a significant part of next year's roster, that's going to Indicate that we're not really that likely to field a competitive team.

Its funny how Hosmer went from being the punchline to a joke as a Padre to being a brilliant pickup by Chaim because San Diego was desperate to move him.
He’s an upgrade over what we had. So he improves the team now.

The difference between him being San Diego’s Established Major Leaguer and ours is about $45 million. Which is not nothing.

And if he’s our starting 1B all of next year then yes, something has gone awry. But if he’s an insurance policy/reserve/trade chip (which I think is the plan) then it’s a good move.

I don’t think anyone is saying it’s a brilliant move, rather the kind of small move (like Pham & McGuire) that I hope Bloom continues to make to improve the team.

Put another way, acquiring Hosmer carried little to no opportunity cost. Now if Hosmer is starting next April over a hot Casas I will eat my words . . .
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
10,132
I’m on your side here, but nobody is calling it a brilliant move. At best people have been calling it an asset
It was a brilliant move in the sense that there were at least 19 teams the Padres could have dealt him to, probably more, and almost every one of them would have been interested in Hosmer at the price the Sox paid, even if it was just to move him again in the offseason, and the Sox ended up with him. It isn't brilliant in the sense that we probably aren't going to look back 5-10 years from now and think of it as a franchise changing trade or anything.
 

gattman

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
207
Silver Spring, MD
Agree that young players all seem to struggle quite a bit out of the gate. Seems like letting Casas struggle some now, in relatively low stakes, might be a good idea, no? Of course, maybe he doesn’t have to struggle and if he has more success in Worcester the next few months, he will be more ready for the bigs? Certainly can see reasonable arguments both ways.

Planning for Hosmer and Casas as the 1b men next year is fine, but seems a little weird in that they are both Lh hitters who struggle with Lh pitching. Seems less than ideal. But having an actual backup 1b is progress.

Hosmer is an average-ish hitter, but the team should aim higher at 1b, I think that’s the argument. Hosmer’s stats are fine when looking at all players, but at the low end of regular 1b.
Agreed. There seems to be some organizational desire to leave Casas down long enough to preserve his rookie status for next year. And to give him a decent # of ABs after his injury. But I’d also like him to get his feet wet this year in a relatively low pressure environment (kinda like Bobby D in 2020– shit, not the best example . . . )

While Hosmer & Casas seem redundant, there’s no guarantee Casas starts off strong (look at Jared Kelenic for example). Hosmer provides a good insurance policy if nothing else. And if Casas is ready then they should be able to move Hosmer.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
10,132
So I don’t get it—do you not want him to spend a bunch of money this offseason? And do you think he will? Since recent evidence suggests he will not
What recent evidence suggests that he won't spend? They ran a payroll over the tax this season. They haven't spent a lot in free agency because they already had a ton in Sale, Price, Eovaldi, and X locked up.
 

johnlos

lurker
Aug 22, 2014
73
Did you look at the attachment I posted?

The OP had a theoretical lineup with 3 big naming signings. I’m not saying whether or not that is smart, but I am definitely here to quit the billionaire bootlicking
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
17,245
Maine
Agreed. But if we’re gonna start requiring “evidence” for posts around here they’re gonna need more mods
Wrong. We've always required "evidence" around here. You don't get to make statements like they're facts without some kind of back-up. And you don't get to act indignant when someone asks for that back-up.

Your opinion of something isn't proof. Extrapolating from free agent spending when the team already had some big contracts on the books and a top 5 payroll in the league isn't really evidence that ownership's priority is hoarding money.

The golden rule around here is "don't suck". This sucks.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
10,132
Did you look at the attachment I posted?

The OP had a theoretical lineup with 3 big naming signings. I’m not saying whether or not that is smart, but I am definitely here to quit the billionaire bootlicking
Ok, so 3 big contracts when they have... 4 big contracts coming off the books.

Bloom has never had anything even close to that in his Sox tenure before, but there's 0 evidence that he's unwilling to spend considering he's done it every year with the team.