What does 2023 look like?

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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Ok, so 3 big contracts when they have... 4 big contracts coming off the books.

Bloom has never had anything even close to that in his Sox tenure before, but there's 0 evidence that he's unwilling to spend considering he's done it every year with the team.
I’m with you! I’m putting this on Henry more than Bloom, but i really hope the expectation on here is we’re a big market club and we should spend to show it this offseason.

As the screenshot I posted said, since Bloom took over they’re 13th in spending.
 

moondog80

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What recent evidence suggests that he won't spend? They ran a payroll over the tax this season. They haven't spent a lot in free agency because they already had a ton in Sale, Price, Eovaldi, and X locked up.
Right. I read that article and it was a joke. Listing their ranking in $$ spent in FA without mentioning their ranking in total dollars spent is the work of someone more interested in pushing a narrative than actually trying to understand what is happening.
 

moondog80

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As the screenshot I posted said, since Bloom took over they’re 13th in spending.

No, they are not. They are 13th in one type of spending. Total spending is what matters. I am too lazy to do the math but I'd be very surprised if they are not top 5 over that period.
 

YTF

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I’m with you! I’m putting this on Henry more than Bloom, but i really hope the expectation on here is we’re a big market club and we should spend to show it this offseason.

As the screenshot I posted said, since Bloom took over they’re 13th in spending.
Three things in life are certain. Death, taxes and the ignorant posting about the JH/Boston being cheap.
 

scottyno

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I’m with you! I’m putting this on Henry more than Bloom, but i really hope the expectation on here is we’re a big market club and we should spend to show it this offseason.

As the screenshot I posted said, since Bloom took over they’re 13th in spending.
They're 4th 6th and 6th in yearly spending since Bloom took over.
 

gattman

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And it’s also important to point out how much of this spending Bloom inherited. I mean, the Sox are still paying Price $16 million this year. Among other salary commitments.

Next year (& beyond) is when Bloom will be able to really put his stamp on the ML roster.

The Henry ownership group has always spent and there is really no evidence they won’t do so going forward.
 

YTF

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Rovin Romine

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So we're going to move the goalposts to include revenue?
I have to wonder what the point of sock puppet accounts like that one is.

Like, do you just want to establish that Bloom and Henry aren't, in fact, cheap? But you can't do it yourself, so you post an idiotic argument for people to react to?
 

moondog80

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More AB with the Sox next year: Hosmer or Pham? I’ll take Pham.
 

nvalvo

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For the record, I like the trade — we were probably going to need to DFA Groome, but now we can use him to get a temporary 1B for basically free and some younger prospects who don't need to be rostered. We gave up something we were likely going to lose anyway and got something of value. What's not to like?

But what is the argument that Hosmer would be a good platoon partner for Casas, if we decide he needs one (which I would not concede)? Why not, say, Dalbec, or any other replacement level RHH 1B?

Dalbec has been better against LHP in his career than Hosmer has, and it isn't close. Like 170 points of OPS. Also, while Dalbec's upside is certainly waning, it still exists. Like, at least Dalbec has a carrying tool with his power.

I don't think I'm being "irrational" if I don't see Hosmer's role on the team. If we can't give a prospect as accomplished as Casas a starting job opening day, why are we even developing prospects?
 

YTF

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I have to wonder what the point of sock puppet accounts like that one is.

Like, do you just want to establish that Bloom and Henry aren't, in fact, cheap? But you can't do it yourself, so you post an idiotic argument for people to react to?
Yeah, I hate to paint all long time lurkers with the same brush because while some may post rarely, they post really well and I'd love to see some of them post more often. That said there seem to be certain times of the season when we see what seem to be "burner accounts" that might be a decade or older with very few posts that suddenly spring to life.
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
73
So we're going to move the goalposts to include revenue?
No goalpost moving. It's all about what the owners pay vs. what the team makes.

We pour our hearts and paychecks into the Sox and I always like to think we "deserve" success because of it. And as a team with such a great fanbase/revenue stream I think we should have owners that concomitantly spend very well because of it.

Anyway I'm gonna be really sad if they don't sign Devers (and X). And I don't want to hear the same excuses made for Mookie.
 

Rovin Romine

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For the record, I like the trade — we were probably going to need to DFA Groome, but now we can use him to get a temporary 1B for basically free and some younger prospects who don't need to be rostered. We gave up something we were likely going to lose anyway and got something of value. What's not to like?

But what is the argument that Hosmer would be a good platoon partner for Casas, if we decide he needs one (which I would not concede)? Why not, say, Dalbec, or any other replacement level RHH 1B?

Dalbec has been better against LHP in his career than Hosmer has, and it isn't close. Like 170 points of OPS. Also, while Dalbec's upside is certainly waning, it still exists. Like, at least Dalbec has a carrying tool with his power.

I don't think I'm being "irrational" if I don't see Hosmer's role on the team. If we can't give a prospect as accomplished as Casas a starting job opening day, why are we even developing prospects?
Because Dalbec has an option and we can put him in AAA. Then you play Casas with Hosmer as a backup on the ML roster for March and April and see what you get. Hosmer functions as a quasi platoon partner v LHP, and a DH v. RHP.

If Casas craters, you can call up Dalbec and platoon him with Hosmer.

If Hosmer craters, you can trade/DFA him without loss and call up Dalbec.

If Dalbec makes great strides you call him up anyway.

Like I said, if you found the RHH version of Hosmer and traded Hosmer for him straight-up, it would make sense. But absent that, Hosmer's got a role. Oh, and the reason you don't go with Dalbec out of the gate is his awful March, April and May numbers. (The other potential bats, Valdez and Franchy, are lefties.)
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
73
I have to wonder what the point of sock puppet accounts like that one is.

Like, do you just want to establish that Bloom and Henry aren't, in fact, cheap? But you can't do it yourself, so you post an idiotic argument for people to react to?
Maybe you don't know what a sock puppet is, but wouldn't the sock puppet be defending the owners? Who would pay for a sock puppet that is trying to get the team to spend more? Scott Boras? You think he's got agents on SoSH?

Anyway look at my original posts in 2020 and at least I'm consistent (re: Mookie deal). Been reading for far longer than that but I used to live with a bunch of Sox fans so could complain about the Sox IRL back then.
 

mikcou

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It was a brilliant move in the sense that there were at least 19 teams the Padres could have dealt him to, probably more, and almost every one of them would have been interested in Hosmer at the price the Sox paid, even if it was just to move him again in the offseason, and the Sox ended up with him. It isn't brilliant in the sense that we probably aren't going to look back 5-10 years from now and think of it as a franchise changing trade or anything.
The Hosmer deal was a nice little trade in providing something this isnt a god awful level of play at first (and providing a long term hedge that Casas doesnt perform), but this is a bit nuts. Hosmer isnt good - the Padres have been trying to move him for months. He's basically dead last in fWAR among qualifiers at 1B - right around the immortal Bobby Dalbec, Dominic Smith, and Michael Chavis. There just arent 19 teams (or even 10) who want him on a 26 man roster.
 

gattman

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For the record, I like the trade — we were probably going to need to DFA Groome, but now we can use him to get a temporary 1B for basically free and some younger prospects who don't need to be rostered. We gave up something we were likely going to lose anyway and got something of value. What's not to like?

But what is the argument that Hosmer would be a good platoon partner for Casas, if we decide he needs one (which I would not concede)? Why not, say, Dalbec, or any other replacement level RHH 1B?

Dalbec has been better against LHP in his career than Hosmer has, and it isn't close. Like 170 points of OPS. Also, while Dalbec's upside is certainly waning, it still exists. Like, at least Dalbec has a carrying tool with his power.

I don't think I'm being "irrational" if I don't see Hosmer's role on the team. If we can't give a prospect as accomplished as Casas a starting job opening day, why are we even developing prospects?
Because sometimes even the best prospects need some time. Just ask Jared Kelenic. Or hell, Mike Trout. Hosmer is a cheap, very reliable insurance policy. And if Casas is the real deal from Day 1 then they trade Hosmer. Far better than going into the season with Travis Shaw.
 

nvalvo

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Because Dalbec has an option and we can put him in AAA. Then you play Casas with Hosmer as a backup on the ML roster for March and April and see what you get. Hosmer functions as a quasi platoon partner v LHP, and a DH v. RHP.

If Casas craters, you can call up Dalbec and platoon him with Hosmer.

If Hosmer craters, you can trade/DFA him without loss and call up Dalbec.

If Dalbec makes great strides you call him up anyway.

Like I said, if you found the RHH version of Hosmer and traded Hosmer for him straight-up, it would make sense. But absent that, Hosmer's got a role. Oh, and the reason you don't go with Dalbec out of the gate is his awful March, April and May numbers. (The other potential bats, Valdez and Franchy, are lefties.)
Okay, fair enough. That is a role. I guess I wonder if it's worth a 40-man spot during the December crunch.

Because sometimes even the best prospects need some time. Just ask Jared Kelenic. Or hell, Mike Trout. Hosmer is a cheap, very reliable insurance policy. And if Casas is the real deal from Day 1 then they trade Hosmer. Far better than going into the season with Travis Shaw.
Isn't this an argument to bring Casas up next weekend and get that process started?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Okay, fair enough. That is a role. I guess I wonder if it's worth a 40-man spot during the December crunch.



Isn't this an argument to bring Casas up next weekend and get that process started?
Seems to me that if they have a bad week and / or can determine themselves out, they can waive JD and hope he gets claimed for salary relief, add Casas who will remain ROY eligible, and have enough playing time the rest of the way for both Casas and Hosmer. The only downside there is how dumping JD would go over in the clubhouse.
 

gattman

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Okay, fair enough. That is a role. I guess I wonder if it's worth a 40-man spot during the December crunch.



Isn't this an argument to bring Casas up next weekend and get that process started?
Yes. I think so. Which creates a decision point. What’s the prime directive— push for a playoff spot or develop the kids? Of course, they can defer this decision by waiting until 9/1 when the rosters expand.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yes. I think so. Which creates a decision point. What’s the prime directive— push for a playoff spot or develop the kids? Of course, they can defer this decision by waiting until 9/1 when the rosters expand.
Only expands to 28 though. Casas would get one. Wonder who would get the other. Ronaldo? Murphy?

They have to carry 28 too.
 

scottyno

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The Hosmer deal was a nice little trade in providing something this isnt a god awful level of play at first (and providing a long term hedge that Casas doesnt perform), but this is a bit nuts. Hosmer isnt good - the Padres have been trying to move him for months. He's basically dead last in fWAR among qualifiers at 1B - right around the immortal Bobby Dalbec, Dominic Smith, and Michael Chavis. There just arent 19 teams (or even 10) who want him on a 26 man roster.
Have the Padres been willing to pay his entire salary minus the league minimum for months? If he's better than your backup 1st baseman then you'd take him for what the Sox had to give up. And that's ignoring that he can easily be moved in the offseason for at least something of possible value.
 

mikcou

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Have the Padres been willing to pay his entire salary minus the league minimum for months? If he's better than your backup 1st baseman then you'd take him for what the Sox had to give up. And that's ignoring that he can easily be moved in the offseason for at least something of possible value.
No, but there were rumors they were willing to pay some of it and there still was no market activity. It's not like his contract remaining is enormous if he was a decent player and projected to continue to be one. The fact that no one did anything is a pretty clear reflection of what the league thinks - hes not good, hes not average, hes someone youre starting if youre desperate. As I mentioned, it was a nice little move because they were desperate this year and its a nice long term hedge to make sure the 2022 scenario doesnt repeat itself. It was merely a reaction to the idea that most of the league would be all over trading a decent prospect for a league minimum Hosmer.

How many teams even carry a backup 1B who have no ability to play any other position? In a 4 man bench world (one of whom needs to be a catcher), that strikes me as quite unlikely - teams need a guy who can cover the infield positions and a 4th OF. Generally, youre last bench guy is a corner infielder/corner outfielder who has a bit more bat than the backup catcher/4th OF/backup MIF. It's a bit hard to carry a guy like Hosmer and not have him play regularly at either 1B or DH - otherwise the rest of the bench needs a ton of flexibility in a manner that's probably unrealistic. Which brings me back to the point that there really arent that many matches for an Eric Hosmer trade even if the contract is subsidized down to minimum.

I'm sure there were a few other teams interested when they became willing to pay everything, but league minimum, but I dont think its anywhere close to 2/3rds of the league.
 

gattman

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Only expands to 28 though. Casas would get one. Wonder who would get the other. Ronaldo? Murphy?

They have to carry 28 too.
I know. This is a legitimately tough decision. You prob want to call up Casas, but don’t want to lose Hosmer. And when Kike and Ref get activated (which seems imminent) then you’ve got a Yolmer/Duran decision. So do you call up Duran on 9/1?

Which then gets back to your Q— what about a back up C or another pitcher. Interesting decisions and I wonder if their wild card standing on 9/1 plays a role in the decision.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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To piggyback on @mikcou’s point, it also seems pretty rare to have a backup 1B who bats lefty; even rarer if the starter also hits lefty. You can’t really care carry two players on a a roster in 2022/23 who perform the exact same role.

A Hosmer/Dalbec platoon seems potentially possible; and I suspect it’s why they keep trying to teach Bobby new positions; it’s the only way he can stay in the bigs.

But a LH backup 1b who isn’t a great hitter isn’t really a role in modern baseball.
 

Niastri

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I hate the idea of penciling both Hosmer and Casas into the lineup next year. There's a decent chance that both could flop, in which case both 1B and DH are manned by people who projected to be worse than Eric Hosmer. Have Hosmer play 1B until Casas is deemed ready and then keep him as a bench player or just let him go.
Devers, Hosmer and Casas are all substantially better against righties in their careers. Dalbec is the perfect guy to provide depth for all three, and give them days off against tough lefties, mixing in the occasional start for Dalbec against soft throwing righties. Dalbec provides the upside of perhaps channeling whatever made him good about this time last year, and if he doesn't do anything else, he can protect our starters against their weaknesses.
 

Apisith

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I like the Hosmer trade in a vacuum but if the shift is gone next season, he’s going to be better than projected. It gives time for Casas to get more seasoning in AAA, and it allows us to spend money elsewhere.

Correa: $30m/9 years
Extend Devers: $30m/9 years (+$19m AAV compared to this year)
Bullpen depth: $15m

We will need outfield depth because it was our second biggest issue this year. Kike comes back for $8m, maybe we can get Bellinger from the Dodgers as a rental to see if he’ll benefit from a change of scenery. Not sure the Dodgers will want to pay him $20m for 2 wins, they have a lot of cap room but also a lot of holes in their roster.

This still leaves Bloom with around $20-30m to get a DH and to take on salary for prospects, which we should still be doing because we’re not done with this soft rebuild.
 

simplicio

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Why do you want to spend that sort of money on Correa? Of all the SS available he seems like the very worst one to give a giant long deal to.

Given the way he's playing this year I'll honestly be surprised if he even opts out.
 

jon abbey

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Why do you want to spend that sort of money on Correa? Of all the SS available he seems like the very worst one to give a giant long deal to.

Given the way he's playing this year I'll honestly be surprised if he even opts out.
His agent’s mouthpiece Heyman said differently this week:

“ Carlos Correa, barring injury, will likely opt out of his deal, adding to the free-agent list: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts.”

https://nypost.com/2022/08/11/who-yankees-did-and-did-not-offer-to-get-luis-castillo/
 

simplicio

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Well good luck to him I guess. Not sure what team looks at his 2022 and jumps up to grab the checkbook, especially with a QO attached.
 

Apisith

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Why do you want to spend that sort of money on Correa? Of all the SS available he seems like the very worst one to give a giant long deal to.

Given the way he's playing this year I'll honestly be surprised if he even opts out.
He’s the youngest, his batted ball metrics are fine (meaning he’s unlucky this year), he’s also generally good defensively. He has a good record against AL pitchers and in AL stadiums as well.
 

Ganthem

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His agent’s mouthpiece Heyman said differently this week:

“ Carlos Correa, barring injury, will likely opt out of his deal, adding to the free-agent list: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts.”

https://nypost.com/2022/08/11/who-yankees-did-and-did-not-offer-to-get-luis-castillo/
Speaking of what are people's thought on signing Swanson if Xander leaves. If I am looking at the metrics correctly he seems to be the best defensive shortstop available with offensive upside.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Hosmer is basically free next year and going forward but the issue is more about the opportunity cost he represents. An over-30 hitter with mediocre power at a power-plus position, no defensive versatility, and who can't platoon with the top 1B prospect who's close to the majors ... that's not an ideal use of a roster spot for this team in 2023, I don't think. A righty 1B/DH bat with corner outfield experience would be much more valuable.

The presence of Hosmer on the roster shouldn't stop Bloom et al for aiming higher or at least for a better fit than him, my worry is that they go into the winter with him as a set part of the roster. As an in-season stopgap, he's perfectly fine. As the reserve on this roster next season, he's an odd fit, and I hope they replace him.
 

simplicio

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Swanson's defense looks consistently good, but his offense worries me. His three good offensive years have been accompanied by BABIPs of .350+.
 

Apisith

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Player xWOBA xWOBACON
Correa .362 .419
Swanson .340 .434
Turner .349 .409
Bogaerts .317 .354


Correa's OAA percentile rankings went from 100, 96, 93 and 98 to 14 this year. I'm guessing a new team, new defensive lineup etc are messing with this. I would trust the 4-year track record rather than this year.
 

simplicio

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It's his risk to take, just not sure why he would right now after a down season when he's already got 35 million guaranteed and another opt out after next year, at which point he'd also have no major competition in the FA SS market.
 

jon abbey

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Well good luck to him I guess. Not sure what team looks at his 2022 and jumps up to grab the checkbook, especially with a QO attached.
No QO, you can only have it once in your career and he had it last year.
 

chawson

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Because Dalbec has an option and we can put him in AAA. Then you play Casas with Hosmer as a backup on the ML roster for March and April and see what you get. Hosmer functions as a quasi platoon partner v LHP, and a DH v. RHP.

If Casas craters, you can call up Dalbec and platoon him with Hosmer.

If Hosmer craters, you can trade/DFA him without loss and call up Dalbec.

If Dalbec makes great strides you call him up anyway.

Like I said, if you found the RHH version of Hosmer and traded Hosmer for him straight-up, it would make sense. But absent that, Hosmer's got a role. Oh, and the reason you don't go with Dalbec out of the gate is his awful March, April and May numbers. (The other potential bats, Valdez and Franchy, are lefties.)
I can get aboard with sending Dalbec to AAA until mid-May, having Hosmer initially back up Casas. Dalbec is far better as his handedness platoon if he's still in the organization.

But I think something will have gone very wrong if Hosmer is our regular strong-side platoon DH. This is a guy who's put up a .320 wOBA against RHP the last two years -- not terrible, but a low bar to clear. It's basically like signing Brad Miller to be our DH vs. RHP, or Christian Arroyo. Could Valdez do that in 2023? I don't know, but I'd prefer a guy on the way up than down. Plus, any games Hosmer starts at DH would make him ineligible to back up first base should anything happen to Casas, which is unideal.
 

Yo La Tengo

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He’s the youngest, his batted ball metrics are fine (meaning he’s unlucky this year), he’s also generally good defensively. He has a good record against AL pitchers and in AL stadiums as well.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I don't get the fixation with Correa. Is he a top 50 player next year? He's been in that group 1 time in the last 5 years. He's less than two years younger than Xander and his defensive stats, where most of his value comes from, are tapering off, which makes sense as he's turning 28 in a month or so. I'd so much rather give Xander a 5 or 6 year extension then give Correa a 8-10 year deal.


For this year, according to Fangraphs:
Correa- ranked 72nd, 5.4 (Off), .7 (Def.), 1.9 (WAR)
Xander- ranked 14th, 20.6 (Off), 5.8 (Def.), 4.3 (WAR)
 
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Max Power

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As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I don't get the fixation with Correa. Is he a top 50 player next year? He's been in that group 1 time in the last 5 years. He's less than two years younger than Xander and his defensive stats, where most of his value comes from, are tapering off, which makes sense as he's turning 28 in a month or so. I'd so much rather give Xander a 5 or 6 year extension then give Correa a 8-10 year deal.


For this year, according to Fangraphs:
Correa- ranked 72nd, 5.4 (Off), .7 (Def.), 1.9 (WAR)
Xander- ranked 14th, 20.6 (Off), 5.8 (Def.), 4.3 (WAR)
Yes, Correa is behind Xander when you use counting stats since he's had trouble staying on the field. They're similar hitters overall. Xander hits more doubles, Correa more homers, and they both end up with a 130 OPS+. Correa is better defensively and Xander has been much healthier. If being healthy enough to be in the lineup is a skill, then Xander is the better overall player. If you think Correa has just been unlucky and will be playing a full season going forward, then he's probably better.

At equal years and money, I could be convinced Correa is the better deal. If you're paying him a premium, I'd rather just keep Xander.
 

BravesField

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Hosmer is basically free next year and going forward but the issue is more about the opportunity cost he represents. An over-30 hitter with mediocre power at a power-plus position, no defensive versatility, and who can't platoon with the top 1B prospect who's close to the majors ... that's not an ideal use of a roster spot for this team in 2023, I don't think. A righty 1B/DH bat with corner outfield experience would be much more valuable.

The presence of Hosmer on the roster shouldn't stop Bloom et al for aiming higher or at least for a better fit than him, my worry is that they go into the winter with him as a set part of the roster. As an in-season stopgap, he's perfectly fine. As the reserve on this roster next season, he's an odd fit, and I hope they replace him.
If there is one guy in MLB, right now, who can train, mentor, coach Casas, it's Hosmer. Hosmer and Casas have a history together, train together, hell maybe they exchange Christmas cards too. IMO, Hosmer is invaluable to get Casas off on the right foot. Why are people in such a hurry to dump a cost controlled asset?
 

Rovin Romine

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I can get aboard with sending Dalbec to AAA until mid-May, having Hosmer initially back up Casas. Dalbec is far better as his handedness platoon if he's still in the organization.

But I think something will have gone very wrong if Hosmer is our regular strong-side platoon DH. This is a guy who's put up a .320 wOBA against RHP the last two years -- not terrible, but a low bar to clear. It's basically like signing Brad Miller to be our DH vs. RHP, or Christian Arroyo. Could Valdez do that in 2023? I don't know, but I'd prefer a guy on the way up than down. Plus, any games Hosmer starts at DH would make him ineligible to back up first base should anything happen to Casas, which is unideal.
This is not precisely directed at you Chawson, as you said you could see a role for Hosmer (at least initially.)

But the bolded argument puts me in mind of a thing called moral dumbfounding. It's when someone has an emotional opinion about a moral issue that's unshakeable. If you ask them what their actual reasoned objection to that moral issue is, they'll offer a reason. Yet if that reason is invalid (e.g., non-factual or non-universal), they, without blinking, will shift to a second reason. If the second reason is also invalid, they shift to a third. And so on. Deep into a fog of completely tenuous bullshit. Eventually they ground out with "Well, I don't know why X is wrong. But it just is."

Hosmer is basically proving to be that to a component of this board.


(Pendant alert: this pattern of reaction isn't limited to moral issues.)
 

Apisith

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As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I don't get the fixation with Correa. Is he a top 50 player next year? He's been in that group 1 time in the last 5 years. He's less than two years younger than Xander and his defensive stats, where most of his value comes from, are tapering off, which makes sense as he's turning 28 in a month or so. I'd so much rather give Xander a 5 or 6 year extension then give Correa a 8-10 year deal.


For this year, according to Fangraphs:
Correa- ranked 72nd, 5.4 (Off), .7 (Def.), 1.9 (WAR)
Xander- ranked 14th, 20.6 (Off), 5.8 (Def.), 4.3 (WAR)
Bogaerts' percentile rankings:
Screen Shot 2022-08-15 at 20.48.06.png


Correa's percentile rankings:
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You can't look at that and think Xander's going to be the better player on a long-term deal. Xander's already losing power (Max EV's down), he's not hitting it hard as often as he used to (Barrels, barrel rate are at multi-year lows). You can see that the decline has already started. For Correa, the only concern is speed and OAA, but last year his speed was down but his defense was still elite, which makes me think that his relatively bad defense this year is due to positioning. Maybe the Twins aren't positioning him well. But the rest of the metrics are elite, he's much more likely to provide some surplus value on a long-term deal.
 

4 6 3 DP

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Oct 24, 2001
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I realize this focus of the last couple pages here have been Casas and Hosmer and Dalbec, and I fully intended to come into this argument prepared to crucify Bloom for putting out a team with the RF and 1B situation that the Sox have had to tolerate all year. And the Renfroe deal looks atrocious in retrospect, not only by return but by leaving the team naked in RF all season. Like many/most here, I have become accustomed to the Epstein forward Sox that seemed to have a batting order with 9 legitimate bats in it every year save for the occasional one off, with FA signings or trades on top of them to ensure depth. This "reset" team feels less a reset than it does a team with absolutely no offensive depth to survive Dalbec/Bradley or injuries.

However, I spent a little time looking at the FA signings from last season, and the days of finding guys like Moreland or Gomes or Pearce or Steven Drew on a one year or even the Mike Napolis or Shane Victorinos on reasonable deals to build depth weren't there last year and with that, I think fans like me need to understand that roster building is a completely different animal than it may have been years ago. Looking at the one year deals signed last off-season, it's guys who are toast like Dickerson or Calhoun, maybe you can argue for Andrew McCutchen to play right, though he's mostly DH'd this year, but very slim pickings outside of expensive deals to get the type of offensive depth needed to make the lineup look like it would wear out a pitcher.

The MFY this year are obviously playing amazing ball, but it's really all on arms - Judge has been incredible, but only 3 other bats with an OPS over .750 in that lineup - but while ERA isn't a perfect measure, the 11 top pitchers by IP on the Yanks, highest ERA is 3.95 (Taillon), but 5 of them with ERA under 2.75 and obviously with that pitching depth they are doing a lot of winning.

Toronto offensively looks like more of the old Red Sox model - 6 of the 9 in their lineup OPS over .775 (and Bo is one of the three that isnt), they are really Berrios pitching to a normal standard away from 2-3 more wins - I guess the point I'm taking too long to make is that as a somewhat spoiled Red Sox fan that expects contention on an annual basis, I think there are two approaches here: one would be to re-sign X (or legit SS), JDM (or slugging DH facsimile), figure out how to get solid hitting from CF, RF, and 1B while not completely abandoning defense. I tend to be on the Hosmer/Casas should be enough at 1B given other needs on the roster, and frankly it's not like the market is just teeming with legitimate OF bats with reasonable contract expectations, the other alternative is to somewhat bargain pick as Bloom has seemed to want to do on offense to date, and then try and play SP roulette again with better outcomes - you can argue a pen of Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Sawamura is pretty damn good, maybe there's less need to throw the Diekman/Strahm/Robles/Brasier pu pu platter out there and with a little FA luck on top of the farm you can get a high end bullpen, but the focus is figuring out how you get the type of starting pitching you need to contend. Crawford and Pivetta probably can hold up as the #4 and #5, so if you rely on Sale/Paxton, you are trying to find one legit SP, hope Bello can contribute, and go from there.

Said another way, there's an awful lot on the left arms of Sale and Paxton for the 2023 Red Sox to seriously contend, if you get best case outcomes there, next summer we have some fun, anything below probably 75th percentile outcomes there and they've got to have an awful lot of SP depth acquired this offseason and have it perform at/above expectations, plus get 2 legitimate OF bats on what is a pretty thin market for such bats.
 

Max Power

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Bogaerts' percentile rankings:
View attachment 54275


Correa's percentile rankings:
View attachment 54276

You can't look at that and think Xander's going to be the better player on a long-term deal. Xander's already losing power (Max EV's down), he's not hitting it hard as often as he used to (Barrels, barrel rate are at multi-year lows). You can see that the decline has already started. For Correa, the only concern is speed and OAA, but last year his speed was down but his defense was still elite, which makes me think that his relatively bad defense this year is due to positioning. Maybe the Twins aren't positioning him well. But the rest of the metrics are elite, he's much more likely to provide some surplus value on a long-term deal.
One year is not a trend. Correa was pretty bad across the board in 2018 and 2020, but he came back strong in 2021. Xander isn't so old that it would be a surprise to see him back in line with his 2019 to 2021 numbers next year.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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You can't look at that and think Xander's going to be the better player on a long-term deal.
If Xander and Correa were offered the same years/dollars, I agree that Correa would be the better bet to provide more value, simply because of his age. But, no one thinks they are going to be offered the same deal, right? And Correa is no sure thing, as he's really only lived up to his hype once in the last five years.

The better question is would the Sox rather have Xander at 6 years, $140 million than Correa at 10 years, $300 million, or something similar. I'd take Xander every time.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I don't get the fixation with Correa. Is he a top 50 player next year? He's been in that group 1 time in the last 5 years. He's less than two years younger than Xander and his defensive stats, where most of his value comes from, are tapering off, which makes sense as he's turning 28 in a month or so. I'd so much rather give Xander a 5 or 6 year extension then give Correa a 8-10 year deal.


For this year, according the Fangraphs:
Correa- ranked 72nd, 5.4 (Off), .7 (Def.), 1.9 (WAR)
Xander- ranked 14th, 20.6 (Off), 5.8 (Def.), 4.3 (WAR)
I think this “Top 50 per year” methodology you’re using is a slightly skewed way of looking at it. Correa has been pretty much fully healthy the last three baseball seasons (20-22), and over that time he’s the 19th-best position player by fWAR.

The infield comparables (by fWAR rank)

2. Turner
7. Machado
9. Lindor
11. Arenado
13. Swanson
14. Bogaerts
16. Devers
18. Seager
19. Correa
21. Anderson
23. Riley
30. Semien

I don’t see that the bat has slipped. If you give him a pass the first few weeks due to the dead ball and late spring/late sign, he’s a 143 wRC+ hitter since April 28. The defensive metrics do have him around average, which is quite a bit lower than his excellent marks last year. Not sure about that, though I’ve watched a bunch of Twins games this year and he looks very good out there.

All that said, I agree with you that it’s likelier we just keep Bogaerts.
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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Have the Padres been willing to pay his entire salary minus the league minimum for months? If he's better than your backup 1st baseman then you'd take him for what the Sox had to give up. And that's ignoring that he can easily be moved in the offseason for at least something of possible value.
I think it was a desperation move that came together quickly when Hosmer rejected a trade to WAS. I won't claim to know the SDP's financial situation but when Soto and Bell came over they had a roster crunch if nothing else and the Sox were happy to jump in.

Good move for short term and interesting discussion here on what his role is long-term. I'll point out while his career OPS+ is 100 his career at Fenway (125 PA) is 118.