I see Story as the SS when he returns, at least until Mayer is knocking on the door.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Heard an interview recently with Ceddanne's countryman, Andruw Jones, who played CF better than anyone. He was gushing with praise. I'm excited to see Rafaela, but his bat will determine whether he's an everyday CF or the next incarnation of Kike.
If Rafaela is close to Kike Hernandez offensively he will be one of the better players in the major leagues. That's like a 5-6 WAR guy. People just don't understand the defense with Rafaela. It's not just above average, it's possibly best in professional baseball. He's worth 2-3 WAR right now just from CF defense. If he's league average with the bat. Goodness he'll be valuable.
There's a possibility he could see some time this season. It's unlikely and I'd rather not rush him even if we're down to GoodRum.
Per Baseball Reference, JBJ was a -1 oWAR player last year (& -1.8 oWAR in '21). Ke'Bryan Hayes had the highest dWAR of any player in MLB last season at 3.0. But Hayes had more PAs than JBJ did, even in his '21 season.
So let's turn '22 offensive JBJ & '22 defensive Hayes into one player with 600 PAs...
Ke'Jackie Hayley Jr. would have a -1.7 oWAR & 3.2 dWAR and be a 1.5 bWAR player over 600 PAs.
With '21 JBJ, it would be -2.7 oWAR and a 0.5 bWAR player.
Fangraphs has their start of spring ZiPS projections up today, hadn't seen that mentioned. Hope this embeds properly.
Pasting the Red Sox blurb from the article, hope that is within board rules.
"You can’t say “OK, three of these teams feel like 95-wins teams, and also the Orioles can win 90, and the Red Sox can go, like, .500 without some luck replacing Trevor Story’s production.” These good teams have to play each other, after all, and every division is going to have a 130-130 block of games... The Red Sox haven’t been silent this winter. I think Masataka Yoshida will end up being one of the better free agent signings of the offseason, and it was nice to see the Sox reverse a disappointing trend and lock up Rafael Devers to a massive extension. Still, those moves don’t make up for the losses the Red Sox have eaten this offseason."
Pasting the Red Sox blurb from the article, hope that is within board rules.
"You can’t say “OK, three of these teams feel like 95-wins teams, and also the Orioles can win 90, and the Red Sox can go, like, .500 without some luck replacing Trevor Story’s production.” These good teams have to play each other, after all, and every division is going to have a 130-130 block of games... The Red Sox haven’t been silent this winter. I think Masataka Yoshida will end up being one of the better free agent signings of the offseason, and it was nice to see the Sox reverse a disappointing trend and lock up Rafael Devers to a massive extension. Still, those moves don’t make up for the losses the Red Sox have eaten this offseason."
| New York Yankees | 89 | 73 | — | .549 | 36.9% | 38.8% | 75.8% | 8.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 88 | 74 | 1 | .543 | 32.5% | 39.7% | 72.2% | 7.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 86 | 76 | 3 | .531 | 20.0% | 39.3% | 59.3% | 4.2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 80 | 82 | 9 | .494 | 5.7% | 23.0% | 28.7% | 1.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 79 | 83 | 10 | .488 | 4.8% | 20.8% | 25.7% | 0.9% |
Wow, ten games separating first from last would be surprising. Compared to last year, even with the new schedule, they have Yankees -10, Jays -4, Rays flat, Orioles -2, and Sox +1. So the entire division is -15?
I would have expected something more like that last year, for what it's worth. I can absolutely see the AL East bunched up with something like 13 games, but I see it more like a 93 win Yankee team in first and an 80 win Red Sox team in last place. The AL Central is not good.
Without posting everything from their article, they have Houston at the top of the AL (with only 90 wins), followed by New York, Toronto and Tampa Bay as the top 4 teams. They have Cleveland winning the wretched AL Central with 83 wins.
FWIW, last year the same projections predicted 88 wins a piece for the Yankees, Jays, Rays, and Red Sox, then the lowly Orioles at 64 wins. That was -11 from their totals in 2021. I don't think there's much to make of the difference between projection and previous actual performance.
While this is true, I do find it odd that the ZiPS models expect the AL East to cumulatively lose ground (relatively speaking in terms of wins and losses) by all getting to play more games against the AL Central and fewer games against each other.
Or, anecdotally, while I think the Red Sox will finish last in the AL East, if you put our exact roster in the AL Central, I think we'd probably win the division, possibly second to Cleveland because they have better pitching and Terry Francona, but that division stinks.
Does the system have the W/L equal across all the teams in the league? IIRC, not all systems do which lead to really wonky #s.
Yeah, seems weird there’d be no 90-game winners in the AL East with the neutral schedule, especially when there were 2, 4 and 2 90-game winners each of the last three full seasons.
I think the main issue with a lot of these projections are they are super conservative & don't take strong stances, especially when it comes to pitchers. So when factoring in normal variance, you are going to get excessively closely-bunched projections with everything regressing toward .500.
In some ways it's similar to over/under bets in that way - only probably slightly more conservative because the Yankees would get crazy $$$ on the over at that #.
AL EAST OVER/UNDER WINS
In some ways it's similar to over/under bets in that way - only probably slightly more conservative because the Yankees would get crazy $$$ on the over at that #.
AL EAST OVER/UNDER WINS
- N.Y. Yankees 94.5
- Toronto 90.5
- Tampa Bay 89.5
- Boston 78.5
- Baltimore 76.5
- Cleveland 86.5
- Minnesota 84.5
- Chicago White Sox 83.5
- Detroit 68.5
- Kansas City 68.5
- Houston 97.5
- Seattle 86.5
- Texas 81.5
- L.A. Angels 81.5
- Oakland 59.5
Forgive me @Petagine in a Bottle - I'm not certain the question you're asking? Is it "do all the wins and losses inside a division line up"?
FWIW, the over/under numbers are a lot more of what I'm thinking of. Excepting that I'd give a few more wins to Baltimore, and I'd group Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit and KC closer than they are - I don't think there is all that much difference between those 4 teams.
How on Earth the Angles never managed to trade Trout or Ohtani is beyond me (or when they could have maximized value). Imagine the prospect hauls they could have gotten.
FWIW, the over/under numbers are a lot more of what I'm thinking of. Excepting that I'd give a few more wins to Baltimore, and I'd group Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit and KC closer than they are - I don't think there is all that much difference between those 4 teams.
How on Earth the Angles never managed to trade Trout or Ohtani is beyond me (or when they could have maximized value). Imagine the prospect hauls they could have gotten.
Do all the wins and losses across all teams add up in these projections? IIRC, there have been projections done in the past which will have teams (across the entire league, not just a division) with a bunch more wins than losses, which obviously doesn’t make sense.
If I'm understanding your question correctly (on quick back of the envelope math) yes, I believe they do add up properly. I can't imagine Fangraphs (or any reputable site) using a projection system that wouldn't! (I take your word for it, not questioning you - just the editors of any website that would do that).
So far, only the AL projections have been released for this season so it isn't possible to see if the wins and losses balance out. FWIW, the 2022 ZIPS projections didn't balance out: 2433-2427. That could be a result of rounding each team's projections to round numbers (84.6 rounds to 85, 76.3 rounds to 76, etc).
Thank you. My guess is I misunderstood the question, but wanted to try my best to answer. Appreciated.
Thanks, being six games off is close enough and explainable by rounding- perhaps I am mistaken in my remembrance here!
Since this is only the AL projections, isn't it possible that the NL projections will show them with 6 more losses than wins due to interleague games?
This isn't specific to you, but there is one thing that we ALL need to keep in mind about the new schedule. While it's true that there will be less games within what looks to once again be a tough division, there will now be more games vs the rest of the top teams in MLB. There will also be more games against the lesser teams, but the schedule the same holds true for the other teams in the division.
These projections tend to be conservative because they also can't contemplate in season acquisitions (not internal moves) If no teams were buyers or sellers, then win totals would be closer together. There is a blurb in the article that mentions the Yankees and Astros as two teams that have made the most in season additions over the past 17 years so have had the highest variance.
The numbers I posted that were 6 games apart were from last year, so they included all 30 teams.
Here's a Fangraphs write-up on the change to a more balanced schedule & the impact on projected records...
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-do-the-projections-say-about-the-2023-schedule/
It's a bit older, but I think it helps explain their methodology.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-do-the-projections-say-about-the-2023-schedule/
It's a bit older, but I think it helps explain their methodology.
The Red Sox are picked as a last place team, but given a 25.7% chance to make the playoffs. That playoff percentage is better than the fourth and fifth place teams in the Central (Tigers and Royals) and West (Rangers and Athletics).
I think that that's actually pretty close to how I see the season, by the way. I think the Red Sox are moderately likely to make the playoffs (as the fifth or sixth seed), but pretty unlikely to finish in the top half of their division. The new schedule, which we should really talk about in more depth, makes it even more likely IMO than it already was that the AL East could yield three or even four playoff teams.
Yes, the schedule means all of the AL East teams have to play the Astros more, but Houston — the best non-East team in the AL by a mile — only went 17-15 against the AL East last year, if I did the math right.
How confident are you that the Guardians are better than the Red Sox, for example? I think they probably are, but Boston went 5-2 against Cleveland last season.
I think that that's actually pretty close to how I see the season, by the way. I think the Red Sox are moderately likely to make the playoffs (as the fifth or sixth seed), but pretty unlikely to finish in the top half of their division. The new schedule, which we should really talk about in more depth, makes it even more likely IMO than it already was that the AL East could yield three or even four playoff teams.
Yes, the schedule means all of the AL East teams have to play the Astros more, but Houston — the best non-East team in the AL by a mile — only went 17-15 against the AL East last year, if I did the math right.
How confident are you that the Guardians are better than the Red Sox, for example? I think they probably are, but Boston went 5-2 against Cleveland last season.
The Vegas pick from further up? They're fourth, ahead of Baltimore, not fifth, although I had to look at it several times before that registered.
Yoshida is in town and took #7, making it clear that he is in fact the new J.D. Drew. The Globe also reports that Whitlock switched to 22 as an homage to Rick Porcello, who maybe doesn't get enough homages?
Ah, right, even further up. Basically the same Sox projection as Vegas but FG likes the Os ("Ews" if I have my accent right) a bit more.
Some other odds, these are from Bet MGM:
AL East Winner
Yankees Even
Blue Jays +220
Rays +350
Red Sox +2000
Orioles +2000
AL Pennant Winner
Yankees +300
Astros +300
Blue Jays +800
Mariners +800
Rays +1200
Guardians +1300
White Sox +1300
Angels +2000
Twins +2000
Rangers +2500
Orioles +3000
Red Sox +3500
Tigers +5000
Royals +6600
A's +30000
They have the Red Sox win total at 77.5 (I just bet the over). The Red Sox at +8000 to win the World Series is also semi-enticing lol. Much better bet than +2000 to win the division.
AL East Winner
Yankees Even
Blue Jays +220
Rays +350
Red Sox +2000
Orioles +2000
AL Pennant Winner
Yankees +300
Astros +300
Blue Jays +800
Mariners +800
Rays +1200
Guardians +1300
White Sox +1300
Angels +2000
Twins +2000
Rangers +2500
Orioles +3000
Red Sox +3500
Tigers +5000
Royals +6600
A's +30000
They have the Red Sox win total at 77.5 (I just bet the over). The Red Sox at +8000 to win the World Series is also semi-enticing lol. Much better bet than +2000 to win the division.
I think an argument can be made that the predictions for 78 or 79 wins for the Sox seem low considering they won 78 games last year when everything went wrong in the second half of the season and they went 26-50 against AL East teams.
Well the new projection deletes the production of X, Nate, Wacha and some or all of Story. All of whom have been replaced but probably at a projections deficit to last year. So you're probably at closer to 70 wins before you start swinging the luck pendulum away from "roof falls in" to "usual rate of injury".
The Yankees are two pitching injuries away from having a terrible season. People will say yes yes, each team is two injuries away from a terrible season, but the Sox had injuries to Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock and Houck last year. That's 4 of our best 5 pitchers. If Cole, Rodon and someone like German miss a month or two here and there, they don't have the depth to survive it.
I will say that the depth of the NY rotation right now past #6 (Schmidt, German is 5 with Montas out) is not proven or clear, but that does not necessarily mean it is non-existent. If Montas comes back mid-season, Schmidt is their #7, non 40-man Ryan Weber maybe their #8, Vazquez/Brito probably their #9/10 (both on the 40 man). I will be very curious to see what the Scranton rotation is to start the season, that will help us understand the plan here better. If Montas does not come back, push all of those guys up one.
Anyway, no one knew who JP Sears was until NY protected him a year ago, and then he was great last year in sporadic duty. Presumably Cashman thinks guys like Will Warren and Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez can step up. Sean Boyle and Matt Sauer (former second round pick who hasn't been able to stay healthy, a 8 2 1 1 0 17 game in late August in AA) and Richard Fitts (a possible 1st round pick in 2021 from Auburn who slipped when he had foot issues, NY grabbed him in the 6th round and it clicked for him after being transferred to high A late last year, 2 ER allowed in 5 starts, 33 17 3 2 3 38) are all pushing from below too.
Anyway, there is a lot of space for guys to be promoted upward after Cashman dealt 9-10 pitchers at the deadline last year (a bunch of whom jumped right into other rotations, Montgomery, Wesneski, Sears, Waldichuk). Cashman drafted a ton of college pitchers last summer, will be interesting to see where those guys start the season also, Drew Thorpe and Trystan Vrieling are the most highly regarded.
Thanks for your input. I would amend what I said previously to be that the depth is unproven like you said, which is very much like the 2022 Red Sox that had Winckowski, Crawford, Bello and others in AAA with decent track records and relatively well-rated stuff. Bello did well, Crawford had a decent stretch, the rest got hit hard either by injuries themselves or because their stuff didn't translate to the majors. Cashman has a much better track record than Bloom in graduating and fixing pitchers, so the Yankees probably won't fare as badly. But if they have to replace 300 high quality innings with that depth they have, I would bet on their season not going well.
Nate, Wacha, and Story all missed big chunks of last year's season though, so you can't start from 78 and say you need to replace them entirely because a big part of the reason they only won 78 was that they (and others) missed so much time and were replaced by garbage. They weren't projected to win 78 games with those guys last year, they were somewhere in the mid 80s.
Not straying from the original question I think the Sox could maybe reach 4th place of Tampa or Baltimore do not live up to expectation, maybe even if Baltimore does. Our starting pitching is just too fragile for me to have faith. Our one reliable starter, Pivetta, is a good 4th or 4th starter, We better hope Whitlock and Bello are very good and at least Sale rebounds. At this point Klube ris what her and Paxton is like buying a lottery ticket at this point. Van Mata make the leap? Somebody give me odds on Sale hitting the injured list between now and July 4. Bullpen should be better. Offense will miss Bogey but we only had 1 good month from Story last year and JD was not that good last year. Catcher may not be as good but replacing Vaz'z numbers are not terribly hard.
I'm going to flip the script here and look on the more optimistic side of things concerning the Sox chances in 2023. I'm predicting 86 wins, a third place finish in the AL East, and a wild card spot. Obviously good health will factor into this. We were decimated by injuries last year, and the team simply didn't have the depth, especially in SP, to survive that. We all agree that the bullpen is significantly better. I'm doubting they will blow 28 saves again. As for the starters, they are better equipped to handle attrition if/when injuries do arise. Last year, there were times where Pivetta was expected to be a #2 starter, and guys like Winckowski and Crawford were getting regular turns in the rotation as the equivalent of #3-4 SP's. This year they are more like #9-10 on the depth chart. On offense, I truly believe that this team will get on base. Raffy, Yoshida, Casas, Verdugo, Turner and even Arroyo all have a track record of above average OBP. Moving the line has always been the key, especially at Fenway. And lastly, this team seems to have a bit more personality than some other recent versions, which can go a long ways in a baseball season. Get off to a hot start and that can snowball, similar to 2013. Plus I believe Cora is going to come out with a chip on his shoulder due to all the doubters and writers dredging up you know what. Call me crazy, but I'm calling for them to be a fun, competitive team that finishes 10 games above .500 in 2023.
I think there is a group of us who have been saying this already, but welcome to the not-dark side!
Last year the Red Sox played 112 games against teams that were .500 or better, going 47-65.
For comparison, the average team played 86 games against teams at .500 or better, going 37-49.
AL East and playoff teams vs. .500 or better:
NYY 93 games, 50-43
Tor 94 games, 45-49
TB 89 games, 41-48
Balt. 89 games, 42-47
Hou. 69 games, 42-27
LAD 77 games, 50-27
Phil 81 games, 34-47
Atl 77 games, 40-37
Stl. 72 games, 34-38
Clev. 68 games, 34-34
Sea. 71 games, 38-33
SD 82 games, 38-44
Mil. 71 games, 35-36
No other team even came close to playing so many winning teams as last year's Red Sox. Toronto was second with 94 of these games, 18 fewer than the Red Sox.
This is what happens when you are the only team with a losing record in a dominant division.
But fewer AL East games in '23 should mean fewer games against teams with winning records.
Boston beat a winning team 47 times last year, compared to Cleveland's 34 times. But the Guards made the playoffs and the Red Sox finished last.
In 2021, the 92-win Wild Card Red Sox played 94 games against teams .500 or better, going 46-48. We actually won one more game against winning teams in the miserable '22 season than we did in the ALCS season the year before, but lost 17 more of those games.
That year, TB won 100 games and NYY, Toronto, and Boston all won at least 91, while the woeful Orioles only won 52 games. But even they only played 108 games against winning teams that year (30-78)-- four fewer than the Red Sox played last season.
The 2018 juggernaut Red Sox played 74 games (41-33) against teams .500 or better, a mere 38 fewer than last year's team.
Last year's schedule sucked. This year's can't be that bad. I hope.
For comparison, the average team played 86 games against teams at .500 or better, going 37-49.
AL East and playoff teams vs. .500 or better:
NYY 93 games, 50-43
Tor 94 games, 45-49
TB 89 games, 41-48
Balt. 89 games, 42-47
Hou. 69 games, 42-27
LAD 77 games, 50-27
Phil 81 games, 34-47
Atl 77 games, 40-37
Stl. 72 games, 34-38
Clev. 68 games, 34-34
Sea. 71 games, 38-33
SD 82 games, 38-44
Mil. 71 games, 35-36
No other team even came close to playing so many winning teams as last year's Red Sox. Toronto was second with 94 of these games, 18 fewer than the Red Sox.
This is what happens when you are the only team with a losing record in a dominant division.
But fewer AL East games in '23 should mean fewer games against teams with winning records.
Boston beat a winning team 47 times last year, compared to Cleveland's 34 times. But the Guards made the playoffs and the Red Sox finished last.
In 2021, the 92-win Wild Card Red Sox played 94 games against teams .500 or better, going 46-48. We actually won one more game against winning teams in the miserable '22 season than we did in the ALCS season the year before, but lost 17 more of those games.
That year, TB won 100 games and NYY, Toronto, and Boston all won at least 91, while the woeful Orioles only won 52 games. But even they only played 108 games against winning teams that year (30-78)-- four fewer than the Red Sox played last season.
The 2018 juggernaut Red Sox played 74 games (41-33) against teams .500 or better, a mere 38 fewer than last year's team.
Last year's schedule sucked. This year's can't be that bad. I hope.
It’s a way larger factor than what the current projections are showing. It’s why I think 78 wins is an easy over bet. Schedule alone should net them a few wins.
Can slice and dice this a lot of different ways, but the Sox finished 14 games behind the Jays. They also went 3-16 against them, so nearly the entire difference between the two teams was the head to head games.
Sox problems were primarily with the playoff teams in their division- they won 16 of those 57 games. Other than those games, they were 62-43- a 96 win pace.
Sox problems were primarily with the playoff teams in their division- they won 16 of those 57 games. Other than those games, they were 62-43- a 96 win pace.
This is just it. The Red Sox are very likely the fourth- or even fifth-best team in the AL East, depending on what you think about the Orioles. They're also something like the sixth- or seventh-best team in the AL. Maybe the eighth-best, if you really like the Mariners or Angels.
That's a weird set of facts, and I think it has a lot to do with the schizophrenic reaction of the fanbase to the offseason.
Are we a last place team? Maybe! Are we a playoff team? Also maybe!
I would bet that there was some luck to that ALE record last season. If the same exact teams played each other the exact same time- a alternate reality of ‘22…. I could see the Sox breaking .500
Obviously no way to prove but IIRC it felt the shit hit the fan at the worst moments of the season against those teams- either their early season slumbers or their horrifying injury stretch- assuming normalization of health (even w/o a healthy Sale) for all teams and that ‘22 team was an 85-87 win squad
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/02/11/sports/mlb-offseason-rankings/
Couple miscellaneous notes that stuck out to me:
Couple miscellaneous notes that stuck out to me: