Oh, I wasn't arguing that the listing should be their final lineup. I was pointing out they already have some players that could be here in 2023 and 2024. The question is - who do they hold onto, who do they trade, and who do they try to sign to fill gaps until their lower minors "pipeline" begins to cluster good prospects closer to ML playing time.
Pitching:
The rotation for 2023 looks like there's little mandatory upgrade. (That can change if two or more of those players suffer 2023 season-impacting injuries, of course. It can also become a more solid risk if Bello puts on an amazing September this year.) Since we were hit with so many injuries this year, and relied on so many AAA starters (and bobbled Whitlock and Houck), it's hard to project this year onto next year. We'll probably have a lot of turnover with players coming in (Sale/Paxton) or having a full season in the rotation (Whitlock?) as other players leave (Eovaldi?, Wacha, Hill).
Even with all the troubles, we're not all that far off average in many categories - so the starting pitching hasn't actually been the worst part of the current season.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-starter-pitching.shtml
The bullpen looks like it has some live arms. Those should be augmented by anyone taking a step forward this year, or the odd live arm they find in 2023 spring training. But most importantly, augmented by a sure-thing (insofar as you can) arm or two via trade or FA. And that needs to happen: because by talent or usage or key injury we're a bottom 3 bullpen in most categories:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml
Overall, I'd say for pitching they're going to need a few solid trades or FA signings. . .but with their budget that should be possible.
Position Players:
I'd disagree with your assessment mostly in terms of the
import of player quality.
The first tier holds Devers (or trade replacement), Story, Casas. (I don't know why anyone wants to downplay Casas - if we traded Devers for an identical player to Casas with a different name, I'd expect that would be seen as an amazingly good trade.)
They are your 3 center bats.
The second tier holds players who are not actually fungible. Meaning, if averageish OF and 1B grew on trees, we would have traded peanuts for those mystery-fungible-guys to bolster the club for the stretch run this year. This tier holds Hosmer, Verdugo, Arroyo. Players who have shown they also might stick at this level are Duran, McGuire. They have SSS or are works in progress, but they haven't flamed out or established themselves as sub-standard ML players.
These are your line-up lengtheners and table setters. And not having guys of that sort of quality didn't help us at all this year. But even so, we've managed to be
a top 5 offense in the AL this year in terms of producing runs. (Shocking, I know.)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-standard-batting.shtml
The third tier are players who we have control of who have very limited roles or some already well-established flaws in their game they are unlikely to grow out of: Dalbec, Franchy. Or younger players who have seemed to have significantly stalled, like Downs. Lottery tickets at best at this point.
The fourth tier are your
actual fungible guys are Yolmer Sanchez types - maybe Jaylin Davis and Stewart at AAA. That's what's easily available. In practice there's probably not much difference between tier 3 and 4. . .except that you have pay an acquisition cost to get tier 3 guys - due to their potential upside.
And then we have rando-prospects on the way up who have a chance to be the one who gets hot and makes the transition to ML. Valdez
might be a guy who cracks the lineup due to his bat and becomes a quasi-DH. I wouldn't
plan around that, but if he has a hot August in AAA and gets a cup-of-coffee call-up, there's always the possibility he makes the team in spring training.
So anyway, we'd have a 2023 lineup of:
Duran-Casas-Devers-Story-Verdugo-Hosmer-Arroyo-McGuire-X(OF).
Which is viable. And you'd have $120 million to spend on free agents, with an eye toward upgrading Arroyo at SS/2B, catcher, or picking up an established-quality bat to DH.
There is no reason they can't be competitive in 2023 and 2024.
And there is no reason why 2023 has to be a "bridge year."