What does 2023 look like?

chrisfont9

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Who knows it this is definitely true or what it looks like in practice, but Chaim supposedly told Kike that the Sox will be "way better" next year. (https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/kike-hernandez-drops-first-clue-chaim-bloom-red-sox-could-have-big-offseason)

On its face, that would indicate the Sox will make some big moves this offseason--presumably retaining Xander or signing one of the other top FA SS, bringing in another big bat and SP (trade or FA for both). That's what I would anticipate (and seems Kike is sort of anticipating) if Chaim truly thinks they will be "way better." That said, Chaim could argue better health, better fielding, some prospects (Bello, Casas) being MLB-ready, and a few "key" (i.e. not huge) signings would make them "way better."
I have never really bought the idea that they brought him in to run a nickle-and-dime operation. It makes more sense that he's been biding his time but has permission to make big moves once all that salary came off the cap.
 

effectivelywild

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Look, if Russ and Pat Bev can get along . . .
Some guys use competing for a lineup spot as motivation to play harder. This could just take it a little farther. Maybe set up a deal where whoever plays the best each week gets to slap the other one in the clubhouse. Shades of the slap bet from HIMYM.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Sam Kennedy on Tom Caron's podcast:

"Bogey, we have him under contract for a long time. 3 more years. He has the right to opt out. That is his decision and his decision alone. If he does opt out, we will do everything we can to line up on a deal with him."

“Raffy, we have him under team control for one more year. Will we continue to try to talk and discuss a long term extension. Yes, we would love him to be here. But we have to think about how to get back to October baseball and winning a world series. Those two guys being a part of this team certainly help that, but we also have to think about the rest of the roster and the rest of the positions we have to fill. The resources here are enormous, over 230 million spent on players in 2022. We will continue to invest heavily, but we have to do it in a way that’s responsible to be where we want to be for a long time."
 

moondog80

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Sam Kennedy on Tom Caron's podcast:

"Bogey, we have him under contract for a long time. 3 more years. He has the right to opt out. That is his decision and his decision alone. If he does opt out, we will do everything we can to line up on a deal with him."

“Raffy, we have him under team control for one more year. Will we continue to try to talk and discuss a long term extension. Yes, we would love him to be here. But we have to think about how to get back to October baseball and winning a world series. Those two guys being a part of this team certainly help that, but we also have to think about the rest of the roster and the rest of the positions we have to fill. The resources here are enormous, over 230 million spent on players in 2022. We will continue to invest heavily, but we have to do it in a way that’s responsible to be where we want to be for a long time."
Some will see this as him hedging, but that's about all he could possibly say. "We want to re-sign these guys and will consider no price too high" would be a bad negotiating tactic.
 

dhappy42

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Sam Kennedy on Tom Caron's podcast:

"Bogey, we have him under contract for a long time. 3 more years. He has the right to opt out. That is his decision and his decision alone. If he does opt out, we will do everything we can to line up on a deal with him."

“Raffy, we have him under team control for one more year. Will we continue to try to talk and discuss a long term extension. Yes, we would love him to be here. But we have to think about how to get back to October baseball and winning a world series. Those two guys being a part of this team certainly help that, but we also have to think about the rest of the roster and the rest of the positions we have to fill. The resources here are enormous, over 230 million spent on players in 2022. We will continue to invest heavily, but we have to do it in a way that’s responsible to be where we want to be for a long time."
People tend to forget that X has the option. If he sincerely wants to remain a member of the Red Sox, he can simply not exercise the option. If he wants more money from the Red Sox, he can negotiate an extension. If he wants to test the market, then exercise the option and some team will overpay. I hope that team is not the Red Sox.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If he walks, and Story can't, in fact, play SS any longer, then who is at the 6 in 2023?

No matter how you look at it, if Story can't play there, they need to spend money this winter, or make a trade.
 

dhappy42

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Story can still play SS. He might not have an elite arm (did he ever?) but he can still play the position. So can Arroyo. Neither are long-term solutions for SS, but either of them could hold down the position until Meyer arrives.
 

nvalvo

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Story can still play SS. He might not have an elite arm (did he ever?) but he can still play the position. So can Arroyo. Neither are long-term solutions for SS, but either of them could hold down the position until Meyer arrives.
Look — maybe this is true. But there’s enough indications that it might not be true that I don’t think this cavalier attitude is justified.

Yes, pre-injury Story had an excellent arm. One proxy: Statcast had him above average going to his right, which at least suggests a good arm. Another: the Rockies dumped Troy Tulowitzki, one of the best players they ever developed, to get him into the lineup at SS.
 

jon abbey

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Another: the Rockies dumped Troy Tulowitzki, one of the best players they ever developed, to get him into the lineup at SS.
He was pretty cooked by that point, 39.5 bWAR at that point and just 5.0 after.
 

dhappy42

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Look — maybe this is true. But there’s enough indications that it might not be true that I don’t think this cavalier attitude is justified.

Yes, pre-injury Story had an excellent arm. One proxy: Statcast had him above average going to his right, which at least suggests a good arm. Another: the Rockies dumped Troy Tulowitzki, one of the best players they ever developed, to get him into the lineup at SS.
What “indications” suggest Story can’t play SS anymore?

Pre- which injury? Elbow strains when he was a Rockie?
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Sam Kennedy on Tom Caron's podcast:

"Bogey, we have him under contract for a long time. 3 more years. He has the right to opt out. That is his decision and his decision alone. If he does opt out, we will do everything we can to line up on a deal with him."
Sounds like the spin machine is ramping up for Xander's departure.
 

E5 Yaz

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That’s the way I heard it too and I think he’s gone.
Personally, I thought it sounded worse regarding Devers.

Yes, we would love him to be here. But we have to think about how to get back to October baseball and winning a world series. Those two guys being a part of this team certainly help that, but we also have to think about the rest of the roster and the rest of the positions we have to fill.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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“Why would we have a roster with one star and 24 schlubs when we can have a roster with 25 schlubs? Don’t you see, 25 is more than 24!”

Yeah. They’re probably both gone.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Fuck you, bleached blonde clown
It takes two to tango. If Devers is going to hold out for a record-breaking contract (which every great young player on a rookie deal seems to want to do lately), then let another team give it to him and watch him gain 60 pounds in two seasons.
 

E5 Yaz

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It takes two to tango. If Devers is going to hold out for a record-breaking contract (which every great young player on a rookie deal seems to want to do lately), then let another team give it to him and watch him gain 60 pounds in two seasons.
Why did you respond to that post? I thought it was put in here by mistake and referenced something during the game today
 

radsoxfan

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Sam Kennedy on Tom Caron's podcast:

"Bogey, we have him under contract for a long time. 3 more years. He has the right to opt out. That is his decision and his decision alone. If he does opt out, we will do everything we can to line up on a deal with him."

Xander signed a 3/60 contract that is about to end, the Red Sox don't have him under contract for 3 more years. All that's left is an additional 60M add on that Xander was only going to exercise if he had a catastrophic injury or under performance. Neither has happened.

It's entirely possible that Xander sincerely wants to be a Red Sox and still enter free agency like any player in his current situation would. Kennedy's spin zone is asinine and kind of embarrassing.
 

Manramsclan

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25 ubers for 25 schlubs
This is art.

As for people wondering about Trevor Story's arm, a simple Google search will show you many articles about his reduced throwing velocity, changes in his mechanics, and scouts worrying about his ability to continue playing SS as far back as 2021.
 

BravesField

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This is art.

As for people wondering about Trevor Story's arm, a simple Google search will show you many articles about his reduced throwing velocity, changes in his mechanics, and scouts worrying about his ability to continue playing SS as far back as 2021.
As far back as 2021? 12 months is a long time.....

In 2021, Story as a SS, had a fielding % of .975 (15th best in MLB). Played in 1175 innings (8th best in MLB). Turned 91 double plays (2nd best in MLB).

So how was it that a year ago he could be so successful, but now his ability to play SS is being questioned.? Didn't seem to be an issue last year if you read the stats.....
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I have to admit, I really like how Lou Merloni thinks. I would be more than okay with that team for next season.
 

DJnVa

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I have to admit, I really like how Lou Merloni thinks. I would be more than okay with that team for next season.
Yeah, but he says DH is his biggest thing and handwaves away the fact that his plan has Bogaerts back at SS and Devers at 3B. SS is the *big* thing, not DH.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I like having the DH be a place where guys can generally rotate through but with Casas and Abreu it asks Arroyo to be the 3B if Devers needs a day off and/or if he's out for any time. I don't know how many combo-corner OF'er are available that could take 1B against tough lefties (allowing Casas to still hit against shittier lefties to adjust), mostly DH and also jump in at 3B. I feel like Arroyo is really only good for 2B for an extended period of time.
 

dhappy42

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Yeah, but he says DH is his biggest thing and handwaves away the fact that his plan has Bogaerts back at SS and Devers at 3B. SS is the *big* thing, not DH.
Disagree. As much as I want X to stay, the Sox have three other possible SSs (Story, Arroyo, and Hernandez.) RF and DH are where the holes are, especially considering power.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Lou may just be looking at it as "I see the Red Sox doing what they need to do to bring X back" and if that's the mindset, DH becomes the "biggest thing" for him since he wants Abreu and doesn't have a specific name for RF.

Also, this isn't some sort of detailed breakdown of contracts and trades. If he was on TV/radio or writing an article, he'd probably lay out his plan to bring back X in a more detailed manner. Instead, he's on a walk in the woods talking on Twitter. But overall, his ideas make sense and I'd like to see that kind of team next year.
 

curly2

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Did Lou Merloni stop watching the team five weeks ago? Has he not seen Kutter Crawford's last six starts? Crawford should be a long reliever/No. 7 or 8 on the starting depth chart.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Did Lou Merloni stop watching the team five weeks ago? Has he not seen Kutter Crawford's last six starts? Crawford should be a long reliever/No. 7 or 8 on the starting depth chart.
Come on. The guy looks like his shoulder was injured. How many great starters have shitty stretches? I'm not saying Crawford is a great starter, but judging a rookie starting pitcher- who was probably promoted a season earlier than he should have been- on "his last 6 starts" is a little too much... add in the shoulder and it's way too much!
Personally I'm good with Crawford to start the season (pending shoulder condition) as a "no. 5".
I also think not having Whitlock in the rotation for '23 is basically taking at least 33% of his total possible value and flushing it down the toilet.
 

curly2

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I was probably too harsh on him considering the injury -- which is a different red flag -- but I still ideally seem him as a bulk bullpen guy.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I was probably too harsh on him considering the injury -- which is a different red flag -- but I still ideally seem him as a bulk bullpen guy.
I think that's the ideal place for him (no. 6/7 starter and BP long relief) for '23 but that really is where he should have been this season too where he could build up to be a rotation guy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I like having the DH be a place where guys can generally rotate through but with Casas and Abreu it asks Arroyo to be the 3B if Devers needs a day off and/or if he's out for any time. I don't know how many combo-corner OF'er are available that could take 1B against tough lefties (allowing Casas to still hit against shittier lefties to adjust), mostly DH and also jump in at 3B. I feel like Arroyo is really only good for 2B for an extended period of time.
I doubt they platoon Casas. They may pinch hit for him in certain spots but the only way he's going to learn vs lefties is experience.

And while it won't help at the start of 2023, the sox have quite a few farmhands that have "super sub" possibilities in Rafaela, Paulino, Lugo, Bonaci etc. If Rafaela is playing plus defense at 2b/3b/SS/LF/CF/RF, the rotating DH is really easy to incorporate. It also allows the Sox to carry an all bat righty 1b/DH type. They have a few of those in the system already.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Come on. The guy looks like his shoulder was injured. How many great starters have shitty stretches? I'm not saying Crawford is a great starter, but judging a rookie starting pitcher- who was probably promoted a season earlier than he should have been- on "his last 6 starts" is a little too much... add in the shoulder and it's way too much!
Personally I'm good with Crawford to start the season (pending shoulder condition) as a "no. 5".
I also think not having Whitlock in the rotation for '23 is basically taking at least 33% of his total possible value and flushing it down the toilet.
He wasn't rushed to the MLB. He's already 26. I don't mind him being the 5 in 2023 but I don't think the Sox are a serious contender in 2023 outside of some fortunate luck.

He's going to have good and bad stretches.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He wasn't rushed to the MLB. He's already 26. I don't mind him being the 5 in 2023 but I don't think the Sox are a serious contender in 2023 outside of some fortunate luck.

He's going to have good and bad stretches.
I should clarify (I sort of did but not well) that I think he was rushed as a starter. He should have been a long-relief guy with occasional starts. The team was forced into relying on two rookies who were good but not very good minor league starters to carry them through injuries for a significant portion of the season. Not ideal.
 

LoLsapien

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Disagree. As much as I want X to stay, the Sox have three other possible SSs (Story, Arroyo, and Hernandez.) RF and DH are where the holes are, especially considering power.
You meant four other possible SSs: Story, arroyo, Hernandez, and Bobby Effing Dalbec. Don't sleep on Dalbec. You just forgot to mention Dalbec, right? Realistically we're probably looking at Hernandez at CF, so without a big-time addition we're looking at a rotation of Bobby and Christian at SS and general infield utility duties. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
 

8slim

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Personally, I thought it sounded worse regarding Devers.
Agreed. I know Kennedy's not going to say that the club will sign him no matter what. But there was so much hedging in his statement, and it read as being very well-thought out.

I won't get pre-discouraged until things play out. But I sure don't love the tone.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You meant four other possible SSs: Story, arroyo, Hernandez, and Bobby Effing Dalbec. Don't sleep on Dalbec. You just forgot to mention Dalbec, right? Realistically we're probably looking at Hernandez at CF, so without a big-time addition we're looking at a rotation of Bobby and Christian at SS and general infield utility duties. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I think it's more likely we see Christian Koss at SS than we do a SS rotation of Christian Arroyo and Dalbec in 2023. I don't think we'll see Christian Koss in 2023.
 

dhappy42

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Xander signed a 3/60 contract that is about to end, the Red Sox don't have him under contract for 3 more years. All that's left is an additional 60M add on that Xander was only going to exercise if he had a catastrophic injury or under performance. Neither has happened.

It's entirely possible that Xander sincerely wants to be a Red Sox and still enter free agency like any player in his current situation would. Kennedy's spin zone is asinine and kind of embarrassing.
What is Bogaerts worth?

$32 million/year for 7 years? (The same as Lindor and Seagar.) More? Less?
 

Rovin Romine

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He wasn't rushed to the MLB. He's already 26. I don't mind him being the 5 in 2023 but I don't think the Sox are a serious contender in 2023 outside of some fortunate luck.

He's going to have good and bad stretches.
Crawford is probably best thought of as a #6 at this point, not the #5 by design. Mostly because that means we'd have very little depth after him.

Who we control for 2023:
SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello. (Crawford/Winckowski/Seabold).​
PB: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, German, Kelly, Taylor, Danish, Brasier​

If we don't pick up Paxton's option (or you do and one of Paxton/Sale goes down), it looks like:
SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford. (Winckowski/Seabold).​

That's not a lot of depth unless you want to move Houck back into the rotation. But then you'd really need to sign some arms for the pen; which otherwise would be hi-lighted by Bares and Schreiber.

But they're not far off the contention path if healthy:

Get a Wacha type starter, and/or Paxton - then you have:
SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Wacha, Bello. (Crawford/Whitlock.)​
RP: Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, Crawford, Barnes, whomever.​
Or you get a relief ace or two:
SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford. (Winckowski/Seabold.)​
RP: Ace, Ace, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, whomever.​

I think the first (sign a starter) looks more robust.

But 2023 begins and ends with Sale's health.
 

dhappy42

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Agreed. I know Kennedy's not going to say that the club will sign him no matter what. But there was so much hedging in his statement, and it read as being very well-thought out.

I won't get pre-discouraged until things play out. But I sure don't love the tone.
Whatever he says should be well thought out. How could his tone have been better?
 

moondog80

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Agreed. I know Kennedy's not going to say that the club will sign him no matter what. But there was so much hedging in his statement, and it read as being very well-thought out.

I won't get pre-discouraged until things play out. But I sure don't love the tone.
I look at this way:

The Red Sox have spent very close to (or above) the tax every year. Given that as well as the year they have just had (and criticism they faced), I find it very difficult to think they won't continue to do that again next year. I trust that they will, one way or another, spend the money to improve next year, and and $ not spent on Xander or Devers is a $ that will be spent somewhere else. And no, it won't be with a 8-10 million players at every position. I'd guess there will be at least two guys making more than Trevor Story next year, not including Chris Sale. As you say, let's see how it plays out.
 

8slim

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Whatever he says should be well thought out. How could his tone have been better?
The hedging about Devers was the tone I'm referring to. I'd feel better if he just left it as "We love Raffy and we'd like him to be a part of this club for a long time". All the stuff about building a team and all that definitely suggested they may go in a different direction.

Like I said, I won't get upset 'til things happen.
 

nvalvo

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What “indications” suggest Story can’t play SS anymore?

Pre- which injury? Elbow strains when he was a Rockie?
Story was IL'd in May 2021 for an elbow injury, which led to him changing his throwing motion and the velocity on his throws cratering (see the chart in the other thread). This was much discussed when he was a free agent, and a likely factor leading him to be a relatively affordable option for us — at second.

That is the (sole) question about his availability at SS — his range, hands, and athleticism are fantastic. It's just the question of his throws.