What does 2023 look like?

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
911
Not a terrible idea but Rosario graded out as a terrible shortstop last year by OAA (-10, particularly bad to his left/up the middle), but decently by DRS (+6).

His average was solid, but he never walks and he swings at a ton of pitches out of the zone, third-highest in MLB behind Javier Baez and Nick Castellanos.
My impression is that Rosario has a good defensive reputation, right? Not sure why there is such a big gap between the defensive metrics for last year.

Offensively, while he swings at everything, he doesn't strike out that much 16% K rate last year. He's not a perfect player but could be a solution to this newfound gap in the middle of the infield. I'd rather trade for a 27 year old with some upside than give Swanson a 10 year deal.
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 13, 2013
429

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
My impression is that Rosario has a good defensive reputation, right? Not sure why there is such a big gap between the defensive metrics for last year.

Offensively, while he swings at everything, he doesn't strike out that much 16% K rate last year. He's not a perfect player but could be a solution to this newfound gap in the middle of the infield. I'd rather trade for a 27 year old with some upside than give Swanson a 10 year deal.
The other option is to move Kike to SS and find a centerfielder instead, preferably one who hits righty and produces better than Swanson.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
I went into this offseason thinking they'd need to pick up 2 SPs, 3 RPs, 2 OF/DHs, and 1 SS, on top of the usual reclamation projects or other depth signings. They're about halfway there (3 RPs and one bat, and no, I don't trust Paxton's health to pencil him in as one of the SPs)

Next question for me is what to prioritize with the remaining money.
I think that looks about right in terms of what the team needs if they want to be competitive this season. That said, I just don't see a reasonable combination of players left on the FA market (whom we'd realistically land) that makes this a competitive team next season in the AL East.

Yes, of course we can make trades of prospects for established MLB players; sure we could go sign Correa, Senga, trade for Reynolds and sign Bassitt, but that seems to run counter intuitive to what the front office has been trying to do the past couple of years and what Bloom was brought in to do in the first place and I'm not banking on that kind of about face as a likely scenario.

I guess I'd go another way which is to move literally anyone on the team we can get decent prospects for (I'll say Hernandez, Verdugo and Pivetta) and start the full on rebuild. The only difference I see between going 60-102 with all youth and 79-83 if we were to keep those three and sign lets say Chris Bassitt, Jose Iglesias, Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley is that we'd get a worse pick in the draft. Personally, I'd rather be atrocious with more prospects added to the farm whom MIGHT end up as part of the next core and higher selections as opposed to "slightly less than .500" with a bunch of guys whom won't make you good enough to contend.

FWIW, I'd still negotiate with Devers to try and extend him and go up to whatever they've determined their max offer will be. If he doesn't take it, move him for "much better" prospects than you're getting for the three mentioned above.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,829
Unreal America
I went into this offseason thinking they'd need to pick up 2 SPs, 3 RPs, 2 OF/DHs, and 1 SS, on top of the usual reclamation projects or other depth signings. They're about halfway there (3 RPs and one bat, and no, I don't trust Paxton's health to pencil him in as one of the SPs)

Next question for me is what to prioritize with the remaining money.
I'm glad you set aside the "usual reclamation projects or other depth signings" from the 8 roster additions you listed. None of those reclamations should be part of the 8, but I suspect a couple may.
 

iddoc

New Member
Nov 17, 2006
137
How about Jean Segura x 2 yrs for 2B, move Story to SS...then hopefully back to 2B when Mayer takes over for Segura. Would leave money for Senga and a Devers extension.
 

ngruz25

Bibby
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
18,972
Pittsburgh, PA
Zunino is coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on his left arm. It's nice that it's not his throwing arm, but I'm not sure I would bet on his bat returning to 2021 form. 2021 seems like a massive outlier season for him. Pass.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,279
This is a pretty useless post, so I'm going to do a lot of nesting spoilers, but there's some 2022 Red Sox pitching oddities & some Pivetta hate, so enter at your own risk.

In 2022, we had exactly 1 pitcher who had enough innings to qualify for things like the ERA title:

Nick Pivetta (179.2, 28th in the majors)

Our 2nd leader in innings was...

Michael Wacha (127.1...tied for 94th)

Our 2nd leader in innings who is currently under contract...

Garrett Whitlock (78.1...161st)

So we may need more pitchers...

Personally I'd like to sign Senga & maybe Wacha or Eovaldi & take the opportunity to trade Pivetta who last year was 2nd in MLB in...

Walks allowed (& BB/9)
.

Pivetta also was tied for 10th in the league in...

Home Runs Allowed with 27

Tied for 7th in the league in...

Wild pitches with 10

Had the 3rd worst...

Strikeout to walk ratio (2.40)

The 3rd most...

Steals allowed with 19

& led the league in...

Most pitches per inning with 17.15

Side note - the Red Sox leader in saves last year had...

8 saves - Houck/Barnes/Schreiber (T41st)

So adding a traditional closer seemed reasonable. Kenley Jansen was 2nd in the league in...

Saves with 41
 

TimScribble

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
1,474
Am I thinking incorrectly or is Correa the answer to two of Boston’s current needs? He’s a reliable middle of the order bat and a shortstop. Boston should admit they screwed up and make a run at him.

Instead they’re looking at Dansby and Zunino? Which will most likely equal the same or close to the same AAV amount (at least for the next two-three years) as CC.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Am I thinking incorrectly or is Correa the answer to two of Boston’s current needs? He’s a reliable middle of the order bat and a shortstop. Boston should admit they screwed up and make a run at him.

Instead they’re looking at Dansby and Zunino? Which will most likely equal the same or close to the same AAV amount (at least for the next two-three years) as CC.
Instead?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,279
So the Mariners are getting a 1st round sandwich pick this year (29 overall) because Julio Rodriguez met all these qualifications:

· Won his league's Rookie of the Year.
· Entered the season with rookie eligibility and no more than 60 days of service.
· Was considered a preseason Top 100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com.
· Did not enter his rookie season as a foreign professional and he was not signed to a Major League contract covering more than one playing season prior to making his Major League debut.

At first I was semi-excited about Yoshida having a chance to get this for the Red Sox based on this foolish Mariners article:

If we want to project even more aggressively into our considerations, Yoshida also offers the Mariners another potential crack at the reward of draft pick compensation as they will receive for having had Rodríguez on their Opening Day roster and seeing him win the Rookie of the Year award.
Silly SB Nation: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/11/15/23459199/seattle-mariners-are-right-to-consider-masataka-yoshida

Anyway, my point is that Triston Casas only has 32 days of major league service time & is a Top 100 prospect, so the Red Sox are incentivized to get him as much playing time as possible & hope he is AL ROY-worthy.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
Apologies if this isn't the thread for this - though I'm not sure where else it would be more appropriate (mods please move to where it's more appropriate or delete if this is no place for this kind of post on the board) but what this one random poster would do with the approximately $40m left in salary below the tax threshold is as follows (I also think there is almost no chance we pay up for Devers and Correa; though at this point I would):

Extend Devers with literally whatever it takes (I'll call that 10yrs / $285m); sign Correa (10years, $300m - I'm assuming same dollar amount to Turner, higher AAV gets it done); sign Chris Bassitt (I'll call that 3yrs, $48m).

That puts us roughly $22m over the tax threshold (I assume Devers is projected to make around $16.5m in arb so the increase for him would "only" be around $12m for tax purposes). Then I deal Pivetta, Verdugo, Arroyo, Taylor and Brasier for literally whatever prospects I can get and someone else pays for them, which I think would get us roughly back down to a couple million below the tax threshold.

Line up is:
Yoshida - LF; Hernandez - CF; Devers - 3b; Correa - SS; Story - 2b; Casas - 1b; Refsnyder - RF; Hosmer - DH; McGuire - C.

Bench is:
Valdez, Wong, Park, Duran

Rotation is:
Bassitt, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata

Bullpen is:
Jansen, Barnes, Martin, Crawford, Rodriguez, Kelly, Schrieber.

Sure, there are no lefties in the rotation and RF is a disaster waiting to happen. But I think it's much better than what we have right now, you also have your 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hitters in place for the next half decade which go L, L, R, R, L and the only large contracts that go past 2024 are Devers, Correa and Story, if he doesn't opt out of his deal.

The rotation has a ton of question marks but I'm not going to lie, I'd bet on Bassit, Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Mata to not be that much worse (next year) than Eovaldi, Wacha, Pivetta, Hill and Crawford were last year and at least there is upside with that rotation.

*Sale and Paxton are here too, but I don't expect more than 50 combined innings between them, but they're on the 40 man and we have to pay them. So call them 4 and 5 if you prefer, but I think both Houck and Mata will pitch more innings for the Red Sox in 2023 than Sale and Paxton.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
The 5 you want to dump are only going to make $17 to 18 million total. But there's no reason the Red Sox need to be below the first threshold anymore. The real big penalties only come when you go over the second, so the payroll could easily be $250 million. It's just hard finding enough middle tier free agents and available roster spots to get there.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
The 5 you want to dump are only going to make $17 to 18 million total. But there's no reason the Red Sox need to be below the first threshold anymore. The real big penalties only come when you go over the second, so the payroll could easily be $250 million. It's just hard finding enough middle tier free agents and available roster spots to get there.
If that is the case, sure, keep them. I was assuming FSG would want to be under the tax, and I’d rather have an extended Devers, Correa and Bassitt than all of them combined, and used the MLB Trade Rumors arb projections to get there.

However if there really is no reason to be under the first threshold, sure, keep them - especially Pivetta and Verdugo.

That would actually make for a slightly below average rotation, with the same upside and a decent enough RF platoon situation in a suddenly decent lineup to squint and see a team that might be pretty good AND has two middle of the order bats for the next decade to anchor the lineup.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Apologies if this isn't the thread for this - though I'm not sure where else it would be more appropriate (mods please move to where it's more appropriate or delete if this is no place for this kind of post on the board) but what this one random poster would do with the approximately $40m left in salary below the tax threshold is as follows (I also think there is almost no chance we pay up for Devers and Correa; though at this point I would):

Extend Devers with literally whatever it takes (I'll call that 10yrs / $285m); sign Correa (10years, $300m - I'm assuming same dollar amount to Turner, higher AAV gets it done); sign Chris Bassitt (I'll call that 3yrs, $48m).

That puts us roughly $22m over the tax threshold (I assume Devers is projected to make around $16.5m in arb so the increase for him would "only" be around $12m for tax purposes). Then I deal Pivetta, Verdugo, Arroyo, Taylor and Brasier for literally whatever prospects I can get and someone else pays for them, which I think would get us roughly back down to a couple million below the tax threshold.

Line up is:
Yoshida - LF; Hernandez - CF; Devers - 3b; Correa - SS; Story - 2b; Casas - 1b; Refsnyder - RF; Hosmer - DH; McGuire - C.

Bench is:
Valdez, Wong, Park, Duran

Rotation is:
Bassitt, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata

Bullpen is:
Jansen, Barnes, Martin, Crawford, Rodriguez, Kelly, Schrieber.

Sure, there are no lefties in the rotation and RF is a disaster waiting to happen. But I think it's much better than what we have right now, you also have your 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hitters in place for the next half decade which go L, L, R, R, L and the only large contracts that go past 2024 are Devers, Correa and Story, if he doesn't opt out of his deal.

The rotation has a ton of question marks but I'm not going to lie, I'd bet on Bassit, Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Mata to not be that much worse (next year) than Eovaldi, Wacha, Pivetta, Hill and Crawford were last year and at least there is upside with that rotation.

*Sale and Paxton are here too, but I don't expect more than 50 combined innings between them, but they're on the 40 man and we have to pay them. So call them 4 and 5 if you prefer, but I think both Houck and Mata will pitch more innings for the Red Sox in 2023 than Sale and Paxton.
It's a decent idea.

One thing they could do is offer Correa and/or Devers one of the fashionable mega-deals that goes long on years, lowering AAV. (This has been covered in the "new math" thread, which doesn't have quite the heat of these others).

A Correa deal for, say, 13/$330 both tops the money of Seager's deal and works out to be a fairly manageable $25.4 AAV. A 12/$330 deal squares at $27.5M.

Correa would be 39/40 in the final year of such a deal, and likely that year doesn't look so great for him. Or maybe, he's still productive on the order of someone like Adrian Beltré, who's after all not a terrible comp? Regardless, it's probably a different ownership group and GM's problem, and the money by the next CBA is not really a big deal.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,920
They offered 6/160 to Boagerts- a guy they knew and loved, who was durable, and had proven he could play and win here. He could have set multiple records and retired a Red Sox. Yet now they are going to pivot and offer Correa a deal nearly twice as long? Sure, they could, but it doesn’t seem terribly realistic, it would represent a remarkable shift in strategy.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
They offered 6/160 to Boagerts- a guy they knew and loved, who was durable, and had proven he could play and win here. He could have set multiple records and retired a Red Sox. Yet now they are going to pivot and offer Correa a deal nearly twice as long? Sure, they could, but it doesn’t seem terribly realistic, it would represent a remarkable shift in strategy.
Correa can play short and Bogaerts, who is also two years older, cannot.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,279
Ducky has to start in RF unless one acquires a new RF. I also think both Devers & Correa will cost more than that, & I'm not a Bassitt guy, partially because of the draft pick one would have to give up.

I guess I'll take a stab at it under 2 scenarios - Devers accepts my best contract offer/Devers rejects my best contract offer. Only have time for the 1st one at the moment, though, & it's kind of lazy as I would probably want to do a few other things, too.

Devers Accepts:
* Devers - 12/$363 ($30.3m from $17.1m) - cost $13.2m - He's good at baseball.
* Justin Turner - 1/$12m - cost $12m - Can fill in at 1st & 3rd when not DHing, still a good hitter.
* Senga - 6/$120m - cost $20m - YOLO. Hopefully a good addition. No draft pick compensation attached.
* Trade Pivetta (projected $5.9m), Arroyo (projected $2.4m) & Brasier (projected $2.3m) for Ha-seong Kim ($7m) - save $2.6m - Padres will need some reasonably priced talent to fill in around all their overpriced players & can't really use Kim to his maximum potential if X is playing SS. Pivetta is a mediocre pitcher whose primary skill is eating innings - I think we have enough depth that we need to try to have better innings than Pivetta's.
* Trade Hosmer ($5.7m lux tax salary, minimum actual salary) to generic team for generic prospect - save $5.7m

That leaves an extra $3.5m or so to take another flyer on a free agent or have extra money for the trade deadline. They kind of need

Roster:
C McGuire/Wong - I think they're fine
1B Casas/Dalbec/Turner
2B Story/Valdez
SS Kim/Story
3B Devers/Turner/Dalbec
LF Yoshida/Verdugo
CF Hernandez/Duran
RF Verdugo/Refsnyder
DH Turner/whoever

Rotation
Sale/Senga/Bello/Whitlock/Houck/Paxton/Mata/Crawford/Winckowski

Bullpen
Jansen/Shreiber/Martin/Joely/Taylor/Kelly/Ort/others from rotation list
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
*Sale and Paxton are here too, but I don't expect more than 50 combined innings between them, but they're on the 40 man and we have to pay them. So call them 4 and 5 if you prefer, but I think both Houck and Mata will pitch more innings for the Red Sox in 2023 than Sale and Paxton.
I get that the last couple years have been disappointing but you're basically predicting that both Sale and Paxton will suffer new injuries? Because both will be fully healed from TJ, which doesn't tend to recur right away, and Sale's broken wrist will have healed like broken bones do. Paxton's lat is one of those things that could recur, but again, if it's healed, it's healed.

Maybe it's just one's nature to talk about injuries as just assuming the worst versus not. But if you think they will miss time, then you are talking about a new injury occurring.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
They offered 6/160 to Boagerts- a guy they knew and loved, who was durable, and had proven he could play and win here. He could have set multiple records and retired a Red Sox. Yet now they are going to pivot and offer Correa a deal nearly twice as long? Sure, they could, but it doesn’t seem terribly realistic, it would represent a remarkable shift in strategy.
No, I think that the most likely scenario is we let Devers play out the string on what I think will be a last place team and lose him for nothing. I think there is no chance we sign Correa - and I did say both of those things in my post. I wanted us to extend Bogaerts last year, and would have gone 9/$225 two days ago to hope he’d have taken that to stay (said that in the “best offers” thread). I like Bogaerts more than Correa, but he’s gone and Correa is out there.

I’m going to HOPE the front office changes course from what we have done since the off season before 2020 (pre pandemic) through present. It’s not realistic, but one can hope, right.

The FAR more likely scenario is something uninspiring like a 2yr / $36m deal for Eovaldi, 1yr / $10m for Wacha, 1yr / $12m for Justin Turner and we repeat last year’s atrocious pitching staff and have a far worse offense losing our 2nd and 3rd best hitters. We go 70-92 and do nothing to improve for the future other than “free up more money” to not spend on elite talent. But the reality of the situation is not at all enjoyable to talk about. So I laid out what I’d do, while staying under the tax threshold to make it somewhat realistic…

I get that the last couple years have been disappointing but you're basically predicting that both Sale and Paxton will suffer new injuries? Because both will be fully healed from TJ, which doesn't tend to recur right away, and Sale's broken wrist will have healed like broken bones do. Paxton's lat is one of those things that could recur, but again, if it's healed, it's healed.

Maybe it's just one's nature to talk about injuries as just assuming the worst versus not. But if you think they will miss time, then you are talking about a new injury occurring.
Yes, that is exactly what I’m saying. Sale was on a downward innings trend preTJS (215ip to 170ip to 150ip to TJS). Don’t forget, Sale had TJS and recovered to pitch at the end of 2021. He then injured his ribs to not pitch until July. Then broke his wrist. I think he’s done and even 50ip is wildly optimistic and unlikely. He has a violent delivery, his build isn’t exactly Verlanderesque, and he’s had 3 major injuries the past 3 seasons.

Paxton has had a 9 year career (not counting 2022) and has pitched more than 140ip only twice and will be 34 years old.

I think they are both literally completely sunk costs and will combine for less than 50ip.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
I don’t get the Swanson attraction, at least not if we’re talking $200M. He’s had exactly one very good season - last year, at age 29. He’s had 2 seasons with an fWAR above 3 (the last two). Bogaerts has had 7 (and 5 seasons above 4). Correa has had an fWAR above 3 every year but 2020. Do people think Swanson has reached a sustainably new level of performance? Much of his WAR comes from defense. As a hitter, he’s never reached a .280 BA, .350 OBP, or even .475 SLG (outside his 38 game rookie season). What if he’s basically a 2.5 or so WAR guy? Do we want the Sox paying $25M+/year for 7-8 years for that?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
What do people think the over under is -

- Sox Wins
- Sale Innings
- Paxton Starts
- Bello Wins
- Casas HR
Interesting questions, many are impossible to answer. I refuse to believe a) the front office does not want to win and b) also refuse to believe they think a line up of McGuire, Casas, Story, Devers, Arroyo, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and Hosmer with a rotation of Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck and whatever we get from Sale and Paxton is a “playoff caliber” team or anything close to it. There has to be a lot more coming. Has to be. I think the FO can make mistakes, I don’t think they’re ignorant. Big difference.

However based on the additions that I “think are realistic for this current front office“ in addition to what we have presently as of 12/9…

1) 78-84 record. (We’re “worse“ than we were, I think our talent will be less than ending 2022, but we’ll also have fewer AL East games with the schedule change. Similar record, still a last place in the division team, but a shot at finishing ahead of Baltimore).
2) 45ip for Sale - and I take the under.
3) I’m going to say 5 starts for Paxton; a chance he makes 10 starts but is horrible to the tune of a 5.00ERA but he starts because someone literally has to start a game.
4) Wins are a function of the team around him. But I think Bello starts 24+ games, has 140ip+ and an FIP below 3.50
5) 30hr with an OPS+ above 115

To be clear, I HOPE we do much more this off-season. I think we have the money TO do much more. Seeing as to how we’ve already “lost” Bogaerts, and lost the ability to add Abreu, Tallion, Rizzo, Bell, Verlander and Walker (I think these were realistic targets, I don’t think Judge, Turner, deGrom or Contreras were ever seriously in play), I don’t see enough realistic targets to improve the record or more importantly our standing in the AL East that much. Unless there are drastic and unforeseen additions.

If we extend Devers, add Correa, Bassitt and Senga (or similar) and trade for Bryan Reynolds I’ll a) happily yell that I was wrong and bow to Bloom‘s foresight and b) drastically change my record prediction and feel really good about the next 5 or so seasons.

If we just add something like Turner, Segura, Eovaldi and Wacha, then 75-87 remains my pick. Maybe we get to .500 if Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Casas are better than I think, but that is the ceiling for that “type” of team in the AL East, in my opinion.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Yes, that is exactly what I’m saying. Sale was on a downward innings trend preTJS (215ip to 170ip to 150ip to TJS). Don’t forget, Sale had TJS and recovered to pitch at the end of 2021. He then injured his ribs to not pitch until July. Then broke his wrist. I think he’s done and even 50ip is wildly optimistic and unlikely. He has a violent delivery, his build isn’t exactly Verlanderesque, and he’s had 3 major injuries the past 3 seasons.

Paxton has had a 9 year career (not counting 2022) and has pitched more than 140ip only twice and will be 34 years old.

I think they are both literally completely sunk costs and will combine for less than 50ip.
Paxton, I can't say with much confidence that there isn't some lingering thing, but Sale broke bones. So which bones do you think he'll break next?

He will make roughly 25 starts.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
I would love to sign Senga, sign Turner, and then find out whether or not Story can actually play shortstop.
I'm into this.

You mean Justin right? I love his bat and leadership. Worry that with the exodus from the Dodgers they might want to bring him back?

Anyway, if I'm reading Sportrac correctly, the 2023 Sox -- counting commitments plus estimated arbitration/pre-arb rates -- are at $192M in payroll. Is that right? Which gives them ~ $40M in room if the goal is to stay under the 2023 threshold of $233M? (Obviously not assuming a Devers extension)

Hard to see them contending with the 2023 Yankees, Rays, or Jays unless they exceed that, right? And that doesn't even consider a dangerous Orioles team with an ocean of young talent washing up on its crabby shores in Maryland.

I'm still hoping for the following:

[Edit to remove Senga] 1) Sign a "Big TIcket" prime SP ($30M AAV, 5-7 years for Rodon). The AL East remains a buzzsaw, and Chris Sale feels less of a sure ace than ever. I don't see how we expect to manage this Division without another elite arm in the rotation. Sure, the Qualifying Offer price hurts, but the farm system has received plenty of attention in recent years and Rodon is available for just money. Pay it.

2) Sign Justin Turner or Trey Mancini (Don't know AAV, won't be insane) Both reliable RH hitters. For whatever reason, the Sox have given far, far too many ABs in recent years to Dollar Store finds like Franchy Cordero and Danny Santana. Let's pay someone who we know can hit.

Do that and I'm pretty happy.

Find a way to trade for Sean Murphy (without giving up Bello or Mayer) and I'll be even happier.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
How would people feel if we traded for Adalberto Mondesi? He's in his last arb year set to make $3M for the Royals, and has lost the shortstop job to Bobby Witt Jr.

On the plus side, he's blazing fast, hits the ball really hard and is a plus defensive shortstop when he's on the field. He hits lefties really well, putting up a .293/.323/.630 line (150 wRC+) against them in 2020-21 (over a mere 96 PA). He's been less good as a left-handed batter, but there's also reason to think he'd be better without the shift.

On the minus, he whiffs a ton (roughly a 20 percent strikeout rate) and is almost comically injury prone.

People were writing about Mondesi as a change-of-scenery candidate five years ago. He's like the Byron Buxton of shortstops, except his durability issues make Buxton look good. But he's only 27, and there's still has a lot of upside, and maybe someone who could benefit from a team led by Alex Cora and Rafael Devers, and a different coaching/conditioning staff.

There are several shortstop scenarios I prefer over Mondesi, but I think I'd rather roll with him and Arroyo than a guy on his way out, like Elvis Andrus, José Iglesias or Miguel Rojas.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
How would people feel if we traded for Adalberto Mondesi? He's in his last arb year set to make $3M for the Royals, and has lost the shortstop job to Bobby Witt Jr.

On the plus side, he's blazing fast, hits the ball really hard and is a plus defensive shortstop when he's on the field. He hits lefties really well, putting up a .293/.323/.630 line (150 wRC+) against them in 2020-21 (over a mere 96 PA). He's been less good as a left-handed batter, but there's also reason to think he'd be better without the shift.

On the minus, he whiffs a ton (roughly a 20 percent strikeout rate) and is almost comically injury prone.

People were writing about Mondesi as a change-of-scenery candidate five years ago. He's like the Byron Buxton of shortstops, except his durability issues make Buxton look good. But he's only 27, and there's still has a lot of upside, and maybe someone who could benefit from a team led by Alex Cora and Rafael Devers, and a different coaching/conditioning staff.

There are several shortstop scenarios I prefer over Mondesi, but I think I'd rather roll with him and Arroyo than a guy on his way out, like Elvis Andrus, José Iglesias or Miguel Rojas.
I like Mondesi in comparison to the others mentioned in this post. I'm curious about his injury history and when looking at the Sox own injury plagued season of this year I'm not sure how much of a plus the Sox conditioning staff might be.
 

BravesField

New Member
Oct 27, 2021
252
I was looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts for the Red Sox, and I don't see the Jackie Bradley Jr. Salary in there. Aren't we on the hook for the 8 Million salary for 2023?
 

Bigpupp

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 8, 2008
2,390
New Mexico
I was looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts for the Red Sox, and I don't see the Jackie Bradley Jr. Salary in there. Aren't we on the hook for the 8 Million salary for 2023?
JBJ had a mutual option for '23 that included an $8M buyout. Buyouts are factored into the contract already for Luxury Tax purposes so while the Sox had to pay out that money, he is off the books for this season.
 

BravesField

New Member
Oct 27, 2021
252
JBJ had a mutual option for '23 that included an $8M buyout. Buyouts are factored into the contract already for Luxury Tax purposes so while the Sox had to pay out that money, he is off the books for this season.
Wow...So last year we had to pay him 9.5M for 2022 and the 8M buyout for 2023. And all that got rolled up into the calculation for 2022 CBT?

Well, can't look back.....
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,675
Maine
Wow...So last year we had to pay him 9.5M for 2022 and the 8M buyout for 2023. And all that got rolled up into the calculation for 2022 CBT?

Well, can't look back.....
Not exactly. His buyout was spread over both years of the contract for CBT purposes. The Sox got hit with $12M on their 2022 CBT calcluation, same as the Brewers in 2021. Keep in mind that the JBJ trade happened before the lock-out so it was subject to the previous collective bargaining agreement in which the CBT number was not recalculated after a trade.