What does 2023 look like?

simplicio

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Took some time. We were excited about him here in the 2013 WS, but he didn't become a star until 2015.
 

mikcou

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Again... those are his blown elbow years. His elbow is no longer blown. Back when it was intact even if he only pitched 150 innings we are talking about ERA+ of 140, 108, 116. FIP of 2.61-3.86. He was very good. He was a Yankee, don't people remember watching him?

He missed 2 weeks total in 2018 and 3 in 2019, so no. What standard are we holding him to if 28 and 29 starts isn't enough? I admit, he won't likely be a league-leading workhorse. I'm just saying, he's healthy and healthy Paxton has been quite good.
Lets put it another way he made Seattle's opening day roster in 2014. Since then hes made 25 starts twice over the next nine seasons (six of which occurred before his elbow issues). He's not someone who stays healthy. Its been the problem his entire career and was a discussion point before he blew out his elbow (it was a significant discussion when NYY traded for him after the 2018 season). 2018 and 2019 which were not completely healthy were still significant outliers for his career.

His career is the definition of a really talented but injury riddled pitcher. That doesnt typically get better in someone's mid 30s. I'd peg a realistc outcome at 22-23 starts and wouldnt be surprised if he made under 20. Would be shocked if he made more than 25.
 

simplicio

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In all his time here, was Xander as much of a star as Hosmer was in KC?
Yeah, the second San Diego signed him.

I think Hosmer's legacy in KC was cemented by his heroic 2014 postseason; X's best postseason performance was actually in 2013, and that pre-dated his emergence as a regular season star (and was eclipsed in the moment by Ortiz playing like a golden baseball god). X was good again in 2021, but his intervening postseasons were pretty bad.
 

8slim

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Is this what people think about when buying Sox tickets? I have mixed feelings about their long term projection? I thought the point of going to games is that it's fun to be there, and at this point they're not eliminated. I guess if I read enough Pete Abe stories I might just want to write off everything and just sit at home being mad about stuff, but as someone who had season tickets for a few years, I can tell you exactly how little fun those freezing April night games are to be at. That seems like at least part of the explanation here.

In general I am beyond sick of what Sox fans think on some broad level and prefer to talk about what the team itself actually looks like in 2023 here, but I guess that's part of the setting at least.
There's obviously a wide range of reasons why people go to Fenway. There is a base level of attendance based on New Englanders (and beyond) making their annual trip. That's why Fenway is largely sold out on the weekends between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Seems like at the moment we're going to see an attendance pattern that existed pre-2000. Plentiful seats for weeknights in April/May. Largely sell outs (or close) on the weekends. The performance of the team will dictate whether we see crowds of 22,000 or 28,000 on weeknights in the summer.
 

8slim

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In all his time here, was Xander as much of a star as Hosmer was in KC?
I don't know how big a star Hosmer was in KC, but Xander was pretty big here. Lots of my kid's friends had Xander jerseys, and he typically got the 2nd biggest reaction behind Mookie at Fenway when I went. Was there a bigger star here post-Mookie than him?
 

simplicio

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No, there wasn't, but he's also never been an electric highlight reel player on the mookie/papi/pedroia/manny continuum. He's just very consistently really good at baseball and has been for a long time.
 

Toe Nash

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I hope you are right but I'm going the other way, as I think pitching is more important and harder to fix if its not in system today...though if pressed I'm not sure if thats a defensible position analytically.

In any case, even in the midst of last years doody-season they were still near the top in run production...as they were in recent prior years with different lineup compositions.

Team Bloom seems to have oddly shown the ability to put runs on the board, but not prevent them...kinda not what I thought he was bringing from Tampa.
Where they? They were 9th in R/game last year according to baseball-reference (the site you quote has them 8th?): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022.shtml

That's fine but they were not that far above average. As noted they were helped by Fenway, their wRC+ was 12th at 102 (100 is average).

In 2021 they were 6th in wRC+, but that was a better team with Hunter Renfroe, a solid JD Martinez, a quarter season of Schwarber raking. All those players and Bogaerts are gone now; the only guy you can really rely on to be well above average is Devers and there is a lot of downside risk given the lack of depth and top prospects not being near ready.
 

Ale Xander

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Wouldn’t surprise me (with my namesake no longer here) if he’s the captain
Who else could it be but him or young Raffy
 

Imbricus

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Wasn't sure where to post this, but I know the rise in home runs has been the matter of some discussion. This is from the American Meteorological Society:

Home runs in baseball—fair balls hit out of the field of play—have risen since 1980, driving strategic shifts in gameplay. Myriad factors likely account for these trends, with some speculating that global warming has contributed via a reduction in ballpark air density. Here we use observations from 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 220,000 individual batted balls to show that higher temperatures substantially increase home runs. We isolate human-caused warming with climate models, finding that >500 home runs since 2010 are attributable to historical warming. Several hundred additional home runs per season are projected due to future warming.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Sox haven't had a captain since 2011. Their most recent captains have been Foxx, Yaz, Rice, and Tek.
They aren't going to give the next captaincy to someone on a 1 year contract.
This is correct, particularly the bolded. Unquestionably, Kike is a team leader, and maybe some kind of unofficial captain but there's no official title there.

Hard to give too much credence to a NESN tweet/article. I know that it's effectively "state media" when it comes to the Sox but it's not as though they have a staff of experienced professional journalists. It's probably an intern or a wet-behind-the-ears recent college grad writing that tweet. There is a spelling error two words into it. I wouldn't take it too seriously.
 

BaseballJones

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VERY small sample so far (1/18 of the way through the season), but right now the Sox are 5-4 with a +12 run differential, which is 7th best in MLB.

Losing Duvall will be a huge blow though - he's hitting .455 (1.544 ops) with 5 doubles, 4 homers and 14 rbi already.
 

pk1627

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View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1643795722318364675?s=20


This is....not a good sign.

If they get off to another bad start this year (basically, picking up from the bad season last year), with the Bruins and Celtics heading into their playoffs as high seeds, it's going to be tough for the Sox to draw both attendance and attention. And if that continues I cannot see ownership waiting around for long to see if Bloom's design bears any fruit.

Obviously it's very early. But they just got swept at home by a team that lost 100 games last year.
So, extending this analysis, here’s some data: Rays had an attendance of 13,600 last night. They are an undefeated, first place team with huge stars in Franco and Aroz. They swept two teams that lost 100 games last year and one that lost 96. Additional data point: Their NHL team is headed into the playoffs.

Not a good sign? Good sign?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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So, extending this analysis, here’s some data: Rays had an attendance of 13,600 last night. They are an undefeated, first place team with huge stars in Franco and Aroz. They swept two teams that lost 100 games last year and one that lost 96. Additional data point: Their NHL team is headed into the playoffs.

Not a good sign? Good sign?
The Rays, as anyone who hasn't been in a coma since 1997 knows, draw only flies.

The Red Sox have a nearly historic low in attendance so far under this ownership.

So. Hardly the same.
 

Shaky Walton

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The Rays, as anyone who hasn't been in a coma since 1997 knows, draw only flies.

The Red Sox have a nearly historic low in attendance so far under this ownership.

So. Hardly the same.
Indeed. Even Rays fans decry that hideous excuse for a Stadium. Every single person I know who has been there has told me how much they hated it.
 

Ale Xander

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View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1643795722318364675?s=20


This is....not a good sign.

If they get off to another bad start this year (basically, picking up from the bad season last year), with the Bruins and Celtics heading into their playoffs as high seeds, it's going to be tough for the Sox to draw both attendance and attention. And if that continues I cannot see ownership waiting around for long to see if Bloom's design bears any fruit.

Obviously it's very early. But they just got swept at home by a team that lost 100 games last year.
Those people on 5/2/2000 sort of got their moneys worth. Wakefield on the mound and game went 12 innings, although it was a 7-6 Tigers win.
 

sezwho

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They may hate the Trop, but it's always the bridge that they complain about.
Wow, wasn't aware what a mess.

Removing link...yes I'm an idiot

Better than the bridge half decade in Fenway though (mostly kidding as I have them ~500 this year /snark)
 
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MuzzyField

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The diamond interchange bridges work just fine, no need to hate!

I believe this is the bridge you are looking for, the Howard Frankland.

Thanks to this massive Tampa Bay crossing construction project the travel "problems" between Pinellas and Hillsborough will be solved in 2025.

Just in time for the Rays' moving vans to head out of town.

63334
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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What about reaching out to Arizona about Nick Ahmed? He plays short, has a reputation of having a good glove, can steal a base, RHH hitter, in last year of his contract, and O'Halloran has a history with Mike Hazen. Diamondbacks seem to really like the 23 yo Perdomo as their future SS. Not sure what it would take in a trade package to get them to eat some of the roughly 7.5 million left on his contract, but may a minor league P and Duran get it done? Sox would immediately be better defensively at 2 positions. Any thoughts on this?
 

Cassvt2023

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SI just reported that a trade for Ian Happ to the Sox is something to keep an eye on, as he a free agent after the season.....
 

Cassvt2023

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Reporter spitballing seems to be the case. Patrick McAvoy at 1pm today. It came thru my Red Sox News feed.
 

Humphrey

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The Sox haven't had a captain since 2011. Their most recent captains have been Foxx, Yaz, Rice, and Tek.
They aren't going to give the next captaincy to someone on a 1 year contract.
Especially when sooner or later his anemic offensive performance is going to staple him to the bench. Cannot believe he is still batting leadoff. 0 for fucking 27.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I don’t think he’s in any risk of losing his job; who is going to take it? He seems like a lousy fit to lead off, though. Even when going good, he doesn’t get on base at a great rate, and he’s stolen one base since joining the Sox. I’d move Yoshida there.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don’t think he’s in any risk of losing his job; who is going to take it? He seems like a lousy fit to lead off, though. Even when going good, he doesn’t get on base at a great rate, and he’s stolen one base since joining the Sox. I’d move Yoshida there.
Whither Verdugo? I get that they moved him out of there for the lefties they've been facing, but if they're going to put a lefty at the top, why not go back to Verdugo?

I can only think that Cora thought moving Kike to the lead-off spot might jump start him since that was his role for most of the previous two seasons. Bad idea for sure.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Without Duvall, this lineup is extra sucky against LHP. We're in a run of 9 games out of 10 against lefthanded starters.
Yikes. This was probably the very worst time to lose Duvall. This could get ugly fast.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Two more versus a team that's undefeated and then the remainder of April is versus teams with a combined record of 28-18.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Whither Verdugo? I get that they moved him out of there for the lefties they've been facing, but if they're going to put a lefty at the top, why not go back to Verdugo?

I can only think that Cora thought moving Kike to the lead-off spot might jump start him since that was his role for most of the previous two seasons. Bad idea for sure.
Verdugo would work too, sadly I think they need his power (relatively speaking) down a bit in the lineup. Hopefully good Kike comes back soon.When he’s good, he’s very good, but when he’s not, he’s pretty terrible. Hard to know what to expect from him given how much his performance has varied over the past few years .
 

Fishy1

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Without Duvall, this lineup is extra sucky against LHP. We're in a run of 9 games out of 10 against lefthanded starters.
Yikes. This was probably the very worst time to lose Duvall. This could get ugly fast.
This is true - meat of the lineup struggles against lefties between Devers and Yoshida.

But there's actually quite a few guys with good splits against LHP. Kike, Dalbec, Refsnyder. One of those guys appears to be hot in Dalbec, and Kike could use a jumpstart. He's got a career .820 OPS against lefties. Struggled to find Wong's career minor league splits are against lefties but would guess they're pretty good. Here's hoping those guys get going, cause the lineup needs it badly right now.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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The Cubs are long past rebuilding – most of their lineup is veterans acquired in the last year or two – but they are trying to compete with an outfield that might be the worst in the majors without Happ. Aside from him being in the final year of his contract, it really made no sense he'd have been traded at this point of the season.
 

Quatchie

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Jul 23, 2009
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I'm a lurker so I know I will be carved up for asking this, but sincerely- what has Chaim done right outside of Whitlock at the major league level? I would include the deal for Schwarber as well to be fair. I fully recognize the development piece in the minors is critical but I don't even see it there to the extent it should be by now. I just don't see what Chaim does well.
 

YTF

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I'm a lurker so I know I will be carved up for asking this, but sincerely- what has Chaim done right outside of Whitlock at the major league level? I would include the deal for Schwarber as well to be fair. I fully recognize the development piece in the minors is critical but I don't even see it there to the extent it should be by now. I just don't see what Chaim does well.
Pivetta, Hernandez, Renfroe, Winckowski, Ottavino, Verdugo have all been useful players that he's brought in. The jury is still out on this year's additions given that we're 11 games in and I'm not sure what more you're expecting from the farm at this point.
 
Mar 30, 2023
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Pivetta, Hernandez, Renfroe, Winckowski, Ottavino, Verdugo have all been useful players that he's brought in. The jury is still out on this year's additions given that we're 11 games in and I'm not sure what more you're expecting from the farm at this point.
The 6 players you listed have produced a grand total of 18.3 bWAR for the Boston Red Sox in 3+ years. I would be shocked if there's another GM in baseball who wouldn't be able to to add 18.3 bWAR worth of big leaguers over the same time frame.