What does 2023 look like?

At this point of the season it's akin to accessing the toughest schedule played to date when you're 2 games into a 16 game NFL schedule. Can you do it? Sure. Does it mean anything with nearly 90% of the schedule remaining, not really.
I don't think that's a fair comparison. I don't know how NFL schedules work, but after week 2 teams will have played 1/16th of their possible opponents. At this point in the baseball seasons, teams have played 6 (mostly) different teams, or 1/5th of their possible opponents. While the percentage of the overall season may be the same, the sample size of games and opponents is not.

Again, I'd argue that strength of schedule is more meaningful at this point in the season simply because team experience tends to get more homogeneous over the course of the season. The next month or so is where you will see a combination of significant differences in strength of schedule with enough games played to make it at least a little bit meaningful.
 

YTF

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I don't think that's a fair comparison. I don't know how NFL schedules work, but after week 2 teams will have played 1/16th of their possible opponents. At this point in the baseball seasons, teams have played 6 (mostly) different teams, or 1/5th of their possible opponents. While the percentage of the overall season may be the same, the sample size of games and opponents is not.

Again, I'd argue that strength of schedule is more meaningful at this point in the season simply because team experience tends to get more homogeneous over the course of the season. The next month or so is where you will see a combination of significant differences in strength of schedule with enough games played to make it at least a little bit meaningful.
TBH I really don't think that strength of schedule is meaningful at this point of the season. I think that there is just too small of a sample size for it to mean anything and quite honestly with such a SSS isn't the whole thing skewed by the Sox being a part of that sample? If a team has played 18 games and swept the Sox in a 3 or 4 game series, doesn't that seriously skew the data? And if it happens twice in that same period of games? Yes the data is the data, but the strength of the other teams played to day is heavily affected by two of them sweeping Boston.
 

Benj4ever

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At this point of the season it's akin to accessing the toughest schedule played to date when you're 2 games into a 16 game NFL schedule. Can you do it? Sure. Does it mean anything with nearly 90% of the schedule remaining, not really.
Strength of schedule tells you who's playing well right now, and who's not. Sports results are highly autocorrelated, so playing any team that's on a hot streak is a lot different than playing them when they're slumping (e.g. the Yankees last year). Now, over a 162 game season, strength of schedule will not reveal anything about the composition of hot vs. cold teams that you've played, because the larger sample size washes that information away. But record over the first 20 games (or any such small sample) will reveal whether the teams you're playing are doing well or not. And that's exactly why strength of schedule is a revealing statistic right now.
 

YTF

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Strength of schedule tells you who's playing well right now, and who's not. Sports results are highly autocorrelated, so playing any team that's on a hot streak is a lot different than playing them when they're slumping (e.g. the Yankees last year). Now, over a 162 game season, strength of schedule will not reveal anything about the composition of hot vs. cold teams that you've played, because the larger sample size washes that information away. But record over the first 20 games (or any such small sample) will reveal whether the teams you're playing are doing well or not. And that's exactly why strength of schedule is a revealing statistic right now.
We're in complete agreement here. I'll even agree that 2-3 months into the season that the strength of schedule might be a useful measuring stick before you get to the point where everyone has played similar schedules, but 16-20 games into the year... not so much for me.
 

jon abbey

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Strength of schedule tells you who's playing well right now, and who's not. Sports results are highly autocorrelated, so playing any team that's on a hot streak is a lot different than playing them when they're slumping (e.g. the Yankees last year). Now, over a 162 game season, strength of schedule will not reveal anything about the composition of hot vs. cold teams that you've played, because the larger sample size washes that information away. But record over the first 20 games (or any such small sample) will reveal whether the teams you're playing are doing well or not. And that's exactly why strength of schedule is a revealing statistic right now.
One big problem with strength of schedule based on so few games is that it doesn't factor in strength of schedule of opponents. TB is on a 136-26 pace and thus that is what is included in strength of schedule for TB's opponents, not who their 16-3 has been compiled against.
 

Benj4ever

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We're in complete agreement here. I'll even agree that 2-3 months into the season that the strength of schedule might be a useful measuring stick before you get to the point where everyone has played similar schedules, but 16-20 games into the year... not so much for me.
Nope, we're in complete disagreement. I guess you didn't understand my argument.
 

Benj4ever

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One big problem with strength of schedule based on so few games is that it doesn't factor in strength of schedule of opponents. TB is on a 136-26 pace and thus that is what is included in strength of schedule for TB's opponents, not who their 16-3 has been compiled against.
Sure, strength of schedule is not a perfect indicator. But that's not my point. TB is 16-3 because it's really hot right now. There are other teams who've played opponents with similar records as TB, but they're not going to go 136-26, because no team stays that hot over an entire season. And that is what strength of schedule tells you right now. It tells you how hot or cold teams are. You want to play the 2022 Yankees when they're in the middle of their cold streak, because you're going to do much better against them than if they're in the middle of a run. You simply cannot make a cogent argument against that point!
 
One big problem with strength of schedule based on so few games is that it doesn't factor in strength of schedule of opponents. TB is on a 136-26 pace and thus that is what is included in strength of schedule for TB's opponents, not who their 16-3 has been compiled against.
RPI does take into account opponent's SoS, so it's a little better than pure SoS. Still some autocorrelation problems but I don't think it should be completely dismissed.
 

jon abbey

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Sure, strength of schedule is not a perfect indicator. But that's not my point. TB is 16-3 because it's really hot right now. There are other teams who've played opponents with similar records as TB, but they're not going to go 136-26, because no team stays that hot over an entire season. And that is what strength of schedule tells you right now. It tells you how hot or cold teams are. You want to play the 2022 Yankees when they're in the middle of their cold streak, because you're going to do much better against them than if they're in the middle of a run. You simply cannot make a cogent argument against that point!
You can, teams aren’t static, personnel changes, you face 3 of 5 pitchers every time, “SOS” is basically random noise IMO.
 

Benj4ever

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I completely understand, I just don't agree. I find it difficult to lend much credence into such a SSS that is skewed by the Sox being part of that SSS.
Hate to break it to you. I mean, as much as you might want the Sox to fail, they're 10-10 right now.

But, ok, fine. Take the Sox away from their Opponents' records:

with without
Orioles: 11-7 10-5
Pirates: 13-7 10-7
Tigers: 7-10 7-7
Angels: 9-10 8-7
Rays: 16-3 12-3
Twins: 11-8 10-6
Total: 67-45 57-35

So:

(1) Subtracting out games against the Red Sox, every Red Sox opponent is .500 or better.

(2) Opponents' winning percentage after facing Red Sox: .598
Opponent's winning percentage before facing Red Sox: .620.
 

Benj4ever

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You can, teams aren’t static, personnel changes, you face 3 of 5 pitchers every time, “SOS” is basically random noise IMO.
Nope. There is no such thing as a perfect statistic. Every statistic has white noise. So, if you want to throw out strength of schedule, you have to throw out every single statistic from baseball.
 

jon abbey

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Nope. There is no such thing as a perfect statistic. Every statistic has white noise. So, if you want to throw out strength of schedule, you have to throw out every single statistic from baseball.
Your contributions to this thread are becoming disruptive, consider this a warning.

And yes, no stat is perfect but there are degrees. SOS 15-20 games in is almost all noise and very little signal.
 

YTF

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Hate to break it to you. I mean, as much as you might want the Sox to fail, they're 10-10 right now.

But, ok, fine. Take the Sox away from their Opponents' records:

with without
Orioles: 11-7 10-5
Pirates: 13-7 10-7
Tigers: 7-10 7-7
Angels: 9-10 8-7
Rays: 16-3 12-3
Twins: 11-8 10-6
Total: 67-45 57-35

So:

(1) Subtracting out games against the Red Sox, every Red Sox opponent is .500 or better.

(2) Opponents' winning percentage after facing Red Sox: .598
Opponent's winning percentage before facing Red Sox: .620.
Nothing else to say on the matter as we're both beating a dead horse. I will only add that through the Chaim Bloom era I have been one of the most cautiously optimistic posters here.
 

Benj4ever

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Your contributions to this thread are becoming disruptive, consider this a warning.

And yes, no stat is perfect but there are degrees. SOS 15-20 games in is almost all noise and very little signal.
I'm an academic. If you want to convince me that what you say is true, then provide the evidence. You can't simply expect me to accept what you say without any support.
 

Benj4ever

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Nothing else to say on the matter as we're both beating a dead horse. I will only add that through the Chaim Bloom era I have been one of the most cautiously optimistic posters here.
Ok, sorry for the short fuse there. But I did respond to your point. You said you don't like the stat with the Red Sox in it, so I took them out of it, and no, it didn't support your argument. I am glad to hear that you are a cautiously optimistic poster, and will keep that in mind for future reference.
 

BaseballJones

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Looking at the pitching staff as a whole so far, it's a ton of U-G-L-Y.

Starters' ERA:
- Houck: 4.29
- Whitlock: 4.50
- Pivetta: 4.58
- Sale: 8.00
- Kluber: 8.50
- Bello: 16.88

That's over a combined 19 games and 91.1 innings (about 4.2 innings per start on average).

The bullpen has a few nightmarish numbers as well, but thankfully the strong part of the bullpen has been excellent.

Relievers' ERA:
- Jansen: 0.00
- Winckowski: 1.65
- Schreiber: 2.00
- Martin: 2.57
- Kelly: 3.68
- Ort: 4.09
- Crawford: 4.42
- Brasier: 7.94
- Bleier: 8.59

That's over a combined 94.2 innings.

The starters need to be much better and go much deeper into games or the bullpen arms will be toast. But Jansen, Winckowski, and Schreiber in particular have been fantastic, so there's at least some good in there. Right now the Sox' team ERA ranks 12th in the AL, so there's a ton of room for, and need for, improvement.

I was very encouraged, of course, by Sale's last outing, and I have always been bullish on Bello and think he will be very good.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Looking at the pitching staff as a whole so far, it's a ton of U-G-L-Y.

Starters' ERA:
- Houck: 4.29
- Whitlock: 4.50
- Pivetta: 4.58
- Sale: 8.00
- Kluber: 8.50
- Bello: 16.88

That's over a combined 19 games and 91.1 innings (about 4.2 innings per start on average).

The bullpen has a few nightmarish numbers as well, but thankfully the strong part of the bullpen has been excellent.

Relievers' ERA:
- Jansen: 0.00
- Winckowski: 1.65
- Schreiber: 2.00
- Martin: 2.57
- Kelly: 3.68
- Ort: 4.09
- Crawford: 4.42
- Brasier: 7.94
- Bleier: 8.59

That's over a combined 94.2 innings.

The starters need to be much better and go much deeper into games or the bullpen arms will be toast. But Jansen, Winckowski, and Schreiber in particular have been fantastic, so there's at least some good in there. Right now the Sox' team ERA ranks 12th in the AL, so there's a ton of room for, and need for, improvement.

I was very encouraged, of course, by Sale's last outing, and I have always been bullish on Bello and think he will be very good.
19 games is a sample size, especially using ERA and especially when it's further broken down by individual pitcher. One bad inning, let alone game, could skew the numbers significantly. Other than Kluber, all the starters have been better and pitching deeper the most recent time through the order. It's entirely possible that the "U.G.L.Y." could be isolated to the early season conditions (lower pitch limits, cold/wet/windy weather, etc) and not necessarily predictive of future performance. The rotation's collective ERA of 6.46 through the first 21 games isn't going to continue. Not when last year's rotation, which we can all agree was not good and not up to this year's potential, posted a 4.49 ERA for the season.
 

moondog80

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Yu Chang's OPS+ of 11 despite 2 HR in only 36 PA must be some sort of record. Has there been any news on Mondesi? Given initial reports that opening day was not out of the question for him (though never likely), you'd think we'd at least be getting some "he's progressing well" tidbits by this point. Story down to +500 to make it back first, from about +3000 when they made the trade?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yu Chang's OPS+ of 11 despite 2 HR in only 36 PA must be some sort of record. Has there been any news on Mondesi? Given initial reports that opening day was not out of the question for him (though never likely), you'd think we'd at least be getting some "he's progressing well" tidbits by this point. Story down to +500 to make it back first, from about +3000 when they made the trade?
I don't expect much news on the Mondesi front given he's on the 60-day IL and can't come back until 5/29 at the earliest. If he's going to be activated as soon as he's allowed, his rehab assignment wouldn't start until 5/9 at the earliest (maximum for position players is 20 days). If he's on that timetable, maybe we hear word of his progress a week in advance of that, like he's throwing or hitting in the cage or taking groundballs, etc. Not much sense or use in updates otherwise.
 

Benj4ever

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19 games is a sample size, especially using ERA and especially when it's further broken down by individual pitcher. One bad inning, let alone game, could skew the numbers significantly. Other than Kluber, all the starters have been better and pitching deeper the most recent time through the order. It's entirely possible that the "U.G.L.Y." could be isolated to the early season conditions (lower pitch limits, cold/wet/windy weather, etc) and not necessarily predictive of future performance. The rotation's collective ERA of 6.46 through the first 21 games isn't going to continue. Not when last year's rotation, which we can all agree was not good and not up to this year's potential, posted a 4.49 ERA for the season.
Agreed 100%. Kluber is the elephant in the rotation. From what I've seen, his stuff just isn't very good, and he's hurt the team every time out. He should be the first to go from the rotation, except for the issues of not wanting to scare away potential free agent acquisitions by treating our current pick-ups poorly, deferring to veterans, "money plays," and GMs wanting to stick with "their guys." Still, if he uncorks another couple of stinkers, I believe the Sox have to remove him from the rotation for the good of the team.
 

lexrageorge

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Looking at the pitching staff as a whole so far, it's a ton of U-G-L-Y.

Starters' ERA:
- Houck: 4.29
- Whitlock: 4.50
- Pivetta: 4.58
- Sale: 8.00
- Kluber: 8.50
- Bello: 16.88
Just to add on to the small sample sizes so far, as single bad starts really impact the data. Going in the same order as you posted:

Houck has had 4 starts. He pitched poorly against the Angels (4 BB's in 4 IP), but has been otherwise decent (110 ERA+), and his last start was really good.
Whitlock had one bad start in Tampa and then pitched really well against LA.
Pivetta has had 4 starts of varying quality, but nearly finished the 6th in his last start. Hey, he's the same Nick Pivetta that owns a 100 ERA+ during his Boston tenure.
Sale has been hit hard 3 times, but then looked like Chris Sale (!) against the Twins. But even if he is mediocre the rest of the way his ERA will not remain at 8.
Kluber has been awful in his 4 starts, although he had terrible BABIP luck in Tampa.
Bello has had all of one start, and had some terrible BABIP luck.

And you forgot Crawford, who has had 2 starts: one awful, and one very good one in Detroit. And has since followed that up with 2 nice relief appearances.

Hard to project where this group will go, but if Sale can return to form (still a big if), then the staff looks much better and could easily survive Kluber being sent to the pen or DFA if it comes to that.
 

chrisfont9

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Agreed 100%. Kluber is the elephant in the rotation. From what I've seen, his stuff just isn't very good, and he's hurt the team every time out. He should be the first to go from the rotation, except for the issues of not wanting to scare away potential free agent acquisitions by treating our current pick-ups poorly, deferring to veterans, "money plays," and GMs wanting to stick with "their guys." Still, if he uncorks another couple of stinkers, I believe the Sox have to remove him from the rotation for the good of the team.
I don't think potential free agents would overreact to Kluber getting a short leash on a one-year, end-of-career deal where he lost his command and pitched terribly. If we offer Julio Urias the most money, he's coming here unless he has some big west coast thing.
 

simplicio

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With his performance last night, Verdugo becomes the first on the team to surpass Duvall's WAR, and is currently on pace for an 8.9 fWAR season. Please stay fucking hot, Dugie.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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With Duran up and looking playable, at least, what’s the purpose of Tapia? Seems redundant to have both he and Duran on the same roster. Might that roster spot be better used by Alfaro, Dalbec, or Goodrum? Four OF who hit LH doesn’t make any sense to me. They need to upgrade this spot and bring in someone who can take some at bats vs LH pitching.
 

simplicio

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Alfaro and Goodrum would both need 40 man spots. Not sure either is enough of an upgrade to warrant DFAing somebody.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Well, I would DFA Tapia, in this case. I just don’t understand his role; the last thing the team needs is another LH OF who can’t hit lefties. I think Dalbec replacing him makes the most sense, for now, although Alfaro could allow the team to more aggressively use the other two catchers.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Well, I would DFA Tapia, in this case. I just don’t understand his role; the last thing the team needs is another LH OF who can’t hit lefties. I think Dalbec replacing him makes the most sense, for now, although Alfaro could allow the team to more aggressively use the other two catchers.
It's been a fun and encouraging start of the season for Duran, but it's been 6 games, 19 ABs. I highly doubt they're ready to DFA anyone on his behalf just yet.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It's been a fun and encouraging start of the season for Duran, but it's been 6 games, 19 ABs. I highly doubt they're ready to DFA anyone on his behalf just yet.
Well, I’m considering the 1800 plate appearances and 0.8 war that Tapia has accumulated over the course of his career, too. With Duvall out, there’s a glaring need for someone, anyone who can hit RH (against LHP) as an option. If they want to keep Tapia and don’t believe in Duran, then replace Duran with Dalbec.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Well, I’m considering the 1800 plate appearances and 0.8 war that Tapia has accumulated over the course of his career, too. With Duvall out, there’s a glaring need for someone, anyone who can hit RH as an option. If they want to keep Tapia and don’t believe in Duran, then replace Duran with Dalbec.
They can wait a week or so and see if they feel better about the Duran start.
 

MFYankees

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I'm an academic. If you want to convince me that what you say is true, then provide the evidence. You can't simply expect me to accept what you say without any support.
OK, I'm an academic, too. Prove what you're saying is reasonable - Given a random process with the type of win-lose outcome we expect to see in baseball (best team wins 62% of games (a 100-win season) and worst teams win 38% of games (a 100-loss season) with the other 28 teams uniformly distributed between best and worst, what is the level of confidence for taking 22 samples of a team's outcome and predicting the distribution of the other 140 samples?
 

jon abbey

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OK, I'm an academic, too. Prove what you're saying is reasonable - Given a random process with the type of win-lose outcome we expect to see in baseball (best team wins 62% of games (a 100-win season) and worst teams win 38% of games (a 100-loss season) with the other 28 teams uniformly distributed between best and worst, what is the level of confidence for taking 22 samples of a team's outcome and predicting the distribution of the other 140 samples?
Can either or both of you start a new thread (in the main MLB section) if you really need to keep going on this? Thanks.
 

YTF

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He was obviously joking, and in the past he has said Kiké.
I was just watching the pregame and Cora said that he went through the clubhouse this morning and asked players about catching experience. Casas told him that he caught when he was younger and would feel comfortable doing it. Based on that Cora said that he would likely be the emergency guy. Cora also joked that with Casas' nails he might be the logical choice. Lenny DiNardo added that he thought Cora had mentioned Kike' in the past, but ATM that could cause issues at other positions.
 

chrisfont9

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I was just watching the pregame and Cora said that he went through the clubhouse this morning and asked players about catching experience. Casas told him that he caught when he was younger and would feel comfortable doing it. Based on that Cora said that he would likely be the emergency guy. Cora also joked that with Casas' nails he might be the logical choice. Lenny DiNardo added that he thought Cora had mentioned Kike' in the past, but ATM that could cause issues at other positions.
Must mean McGuire could play if he had to, or at least in a day or two.
 

YTF

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Sorry everyone, the Red Sox are good.
They are certainly looking much better. Everyone but Casas has been hitting better this week and even then Casas seems to look a little more disciplined in his approach. Yoshida had himself a day today displaying the hard contact that has been lacking. The defense has improved some with Verdugo playing a better RF than most of us anticipated, Chang at SS moving Kike' to 2nd and Wongers now settling in behind the plate. The bullpen as a whole is looking good with Winckowski and Crawford able to go long and Schreiber's been pretty solid. There's still work to be done and hopefully players working their way back from injury whose impact is yet to be made, but right now things are going well.