What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
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Exactly.
FA opportunities for those kind of pitchers are rare. Yamamoto might be a notable exception, but unlike Pedro, Beckett, and Sale, he has no ML track record.
I'm trying to think of what FA pitcher signings were successful for the Sox - in terms of acquiring in FA what they hope will be top-end arm singed for multiple years. Schilling. Matasuzaka (maybe).
We've had some good short-term signings, of course. Nomo, etc.
Price and Lackey had spotty overall tenures, but both were vital in delivering a championship. Probably makes them both worth it.
Price certainly, but I'd say he's in roughly the same boat as Matsuzaka in that he contributed to a WS team, but otherwise was disappointing.
I guess Lackey falls into that, but sort of in reverse. 2 meh years, one year out, then back for 2013 with a solid showing.
It’s consistently odd to me that the same board that takes every Chris Sale injury as a personal affront now wants to sign up for one more year of the James Paxton experience. The Sox should walk away from that dude, unflinching, like a character in an action movie.
You are so right. I kind of feel like he was though. The Sox had to woo him personally to get him to waive the no-trade clause, and part of that was a contract extension, IIRC.
Fair enough. Not a FA- but the Pedro extension, record setting at the time, was obviously franchise altering.
All the other long term deals since- Lackey, Matsuzaka, Clement, Price seem ok to pretty bad.
Which is probably true of most FA deals- stick to short term when you can.
Yeah I’m 100% no on Paxton. No QO. Let him walk. He had a 2 month great stretch but will be expensive. I suspect he’s more likely to be what he’s been since the deadline than going forward than what he was prior
I have mixed feelings on Paxton. Like is it surprising a guy who has thrown 21.2 innings over the past 3 seasons combined has gotten worn out & been less effective over his last several starts?
Judging the market on Paxton will be an important part of the front office's job this off season. My ideal scenario is still QO'ing him & having him sign somewhere else, but it's up to them to figure out if that's likely & how happy/unhappy they would be to have him back for 1 year at $20m.
Judging the market on Paxton will be an important part of the front office's job this off season. My ideal scenario is still QO'ing him & having him sign somewhere else, but it's up to them to figure out if that's likely & how happy/unhappy they would be to have him back for 1 year at $20m.
Why is that? If anything I would expect the opposite. Unlike Sale, who outside of the late-April/early-May stretch has never looked like his old self, Paxton has. Why would wearing down over the course of his first full season in like three or four years suggest a permanent loss of stuff?
ZIPS projects Paxton for 1.1 fWAR next year & 0.6 in '25 (he's at 1.4 so far this year).
1.1 fWAR certainly isn't worth $20m if they agree with that projection, but there's probably not a large sample of pitchers with Paxton's particular circumstances.
1.1 fWAR certainly isn't worth $20m if they agree with that projection, but there's probably not a large sample of pitchers with Paxton's particular circumstances.
The question is more like would any team want Paxton on a free agency contract he would prefer to accept than 1/$20m & are the % chances of that worth the amount of expected money underwater that one-year contract would be & what is the opportunity cost if he accepts compared to the potential benefit of the compensatory pick.
With all due respect, whether people here would advocate for things doesn't really belong in that equation.
That's fair generally, but I think the QO process creates actual positive & negative ramifications that you'd be throwing out with the bathwater by viewing it only through that lens.
Two good months? Paxton had a nice June.
May: 1-1, 4.26
June: 3-0, 1.74
July: 2-1, 4.95
August: 1-2, 5.84
His K rate has declined every month- from 12.8 to 7.7.
He’s been pretty bad apart from one month, I wouldn’t offer a QO at this point. Potentially giving him $20M doesn’t seem like a great use of resources.
May: 1-1, 4.26
June: 3-0, 1.74
July: 2-1, 4.95
August: 1-2, 5.84
His K rate has declined every month- from 12.8 to 7.7.
He’s been pretty bad apart from one month, I wouldn’t offer a QO at this point. Potentially giving him $20M doesn’t seem like a great use of resources.
I can't imagine a team giving him even half of the QO for a year. If you think it's a worthwhile gamble for one year, you could probably get him for $10 million. I guess that'd be okay, but I'd rather just move on, personally.
Well, he had a 2.73 ERA in the 1st half of the season, so I think it's pretty fair to parse that in that manner. Unfortunately he's been at 5.82 the 2nd half & certainly seems to have worn down.
But he still has a 3.99 ERA on the season with a 3.90 xFIP. & as I mentioned before, it should not be surprising that he has worn down after basically not pitching for 3 years.
At this point, I would probably not offer him the QO, but I don't think it's so clear cut as to be entirely dismissive of the concept.
I’m not entirely dismissive of the concept, but he’s pretty old and seems like more of what we already have. The idea of offering him and Duvall a QO, and trying to being back Turner…all of them are OK ideas in theory but if you’ve got $80M to spend in the off-season, bringing those three back may eat up $50-$55M.
Of course, alternatives aren’t great either. Building teams via FA is hard.
Of course, alternatives aren’t great either. Building teams via FA is hard.
Yeah I don't really get giving Duvall a QO, either, he's been nice to have, but is someone else really clamoring to give him $20 million? Discussion for a different thread, I guess.
I was more referring to the $10m comment & the general sentiment more so than your particular post when I said that. Sorry if it read otherwise since I was quoting you.
I think in general we definitely need to not QO Duvall. He absolutely is not a $20m player.
& almost certainly shouldn't keep Turner, no matter how awesome he is unless we're moving on from one of Devers, Casas or Yoshida because we can't carry 4 DHs at a time without suffering the consequences.
I think the Paxton issue is a bit closer, though. & if the Red Sox got Yamamoto, & then Paxton for 1 year allowed them to pick up another front line starter the year after, there are worse outcomes.
Gotcha, think we are on the same page. I imagine Paxton can probably get a multi-year deal, something like 2/$30 or 3/$45, right? There are worse ways to spend money and I’m sure any similar pitcher the Sox could sign will come with the same kind of risks. But it’s hard for me to be super excited about Paxton’s age 35+ seasons, not sure I see a lot of upside.
Yeah, that's why my ideal outcome is someone else pays him 3/$45m or whatever, & we get a draft pick.
If something like that or 3/$50m is available to him, he may find it preferable to the QO in terms of financial security.
I don't think there is any way that Paxton says no to a QO, and, to be honest, I'm not sure he comes close to that in free agency. That said, I also doubt he signs anything resembling a team friendly extension without first testing the free agent market, and because of that he probably signs with like San Diego or something (where I think he would be a great pitcher).
I think it's a tough decision for Bloom, because I don't really see a year of Paxton being worth nearly $20M, but if you end up losing him for nothing that's another hole you need to compete with 29 other teams to fill. If the 2024 plan is "compete at all costs" I think they probably extend the QO, but I don't really know what to expect at this point. I also think the next month will go a long way toward making the decision for him, as well.
I think it's a tough decision for Bloom, because I don't really see a year of Paxton being worth nearly $20M, but if you end up losing him for nothing that's another hole you need to compete with 29 other teams to fill. If the 2024 plan is "compete at all costs" I think they probably extend the QO, but I don't really know what to expect at this point. I also think the next month will go a long way toward making the decision for him, as well.
I think people have become too obsessed with the idea of signing two of the top 20 pitchers in baseball and have seized on the bizarre notion of Bello as "a #3 starter" (yeah, like there are 60-75 better starters in MLB, find them, I dare you) as a means of justifying their fantasies. You don't need a rotation of top 20 starters to compete because no one really has that.
I think I'm still a yes on offering Paxton the QO. Bloom likely would have been more aggressive in shopping him if he didn't plan to.
The bird-in-hand factor is a pretty important one, as starting pitchers go. Paxton's velocity is there, and it's reasonable to think he's still finding his way back. Keeping him around might help facilitate a deal for Houck, Crawford, Pivetta or even Sale if one materializes. Even if it doesn't, he's an average to above-average SP, on a one-year deal, and I don't a ton of reason why he'd be more of an injury risk than anyone else.
I was also irritated that they didn't QO Wacha last winter, whose 2023 is currently "worth" $16.3M.
The bird-in-hand factor is a pretty important one, as starting pitchers go. Paxton's velocity is there, and it's reasonable to think he's still finding his way back. Keeping him around might help facilitate a deal for Houck, Crawford, Pivetta or even Sale if one materializes. Even if it doesn't, he's an average to above-average SP, on a one-year deal, and I don't a ton of reason why he'd be more of an injury risk than anyone else.
I was also irritated that they didn't QO Wacha last winter, whose 2023 is currently "worth" $16.3M.
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Savant's new graphics are really clean and easy to visualize, if maybe a little video gamey. Here's Paxton's.
I think that guy's worth 1/$20 in this environment.
To compare, here are Savant bars from a few free agent pitchers that posters in this thread have lamented we didn't sign.
Remember that the VALUE section is cumulative, and Paxton's 94 innings are much fewer than Lugo (115), Senga (136) or Bassitt (165). The more important thing, I'd say, is the xERA, and Paxton's is lower than all three.
I think that guy's worth 1/$20 in this environment.
To compare, here are Savant bars from a few free agent pitchers that posters in this thread have lamented we didn't sign.
Remember that the VALUE section is cumulative, and Paxton's 94 innings are much fewer than Lugo (115), Senga (136) or Bassitt (165). The more important thing, I'd say, is the xERA, and Paxton's is lower than all three.
(the last guy he mentioned in that bucket was Kutter Crawford)
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1696994205971644737
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1696994205971644737
The Sox need more pitchers not less. I think Paxton will receive the QO. Sure it’s an overpay if he accepts but I think a risk the Sox should take. I’m also not stuck on Paxton being 35 because he just doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his arm. He also has the ability to be an above average pitcher.
I think the team friendly deal was this year.
Something like 3/45 - 3/51 seems in the ballpark, right?
Probably bite the bullet on that but don’t necessarily feel great about it.
The more I think about, I think you do offer the QO- Paxton is likely going to be looking for the most dollars he can get at this point in his career, I suspect, and a 1 year deal even at a higher AAV is probably too risky.
Im confused how people think Paxton will be a healthy pitcher over 2-3 more years but Chris Sale won’t.
The Sox need a guy with an arm that has proven to be able to make it through several seasons but better than Pivetta. I don’t see that with Paxton right now at all. I’d rather bet on Crawford being able to provide what Paxton will likely be over the next 2-3 seasons
I think if you bring back Paxton it’s in addition to someone else better, ideally (Yamamoto, Urias, Nola, Burnes / Woodruff).
Yamamoto / Urias / etc
Bello
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Houck
Crawford
Whitlock
I guess my question is why you want Paxton next year really? There are so many free agents this class that are better and/or more durable and/or younger. Isn't it time to stop rummaging around the broken dudes bin and lock in some more reliable talent?
Actually, I do have one more thing to say: given the specific nature of the Red Sox' pitching issues this and last year - namely, the starting staff's collective difficulties to take the ball and pitch deep into games, I'd probably still rather have had those other three guys and their many just okay innings rather than Paxton's occasional brilliance.
Personally, I don’t really want him. But as a mid-rotation starter, who else is out there? Maybe a guy like Ryu, Hendricks, Heaney, or Montgomery? They all seem to be in that AAV range. I think the Sox need to add two starters and one of them clearly has to be better than Paxton.
I guess it depends on whether you think his recent performances are the real Paxton or that he hit the wall due to so few innings pitched over the past few seasons. Looking through his game log, he’s really had a very solid season and his velocity has been very good. I’d likely offer the QO. As a 3 or 4, I’d be perfectly happy with him for next season
If you like, just be sure to add about half a run of ERA to those guys’ okay innings to account for our team’s defense.
Gammons passive-aggressive (both tweets in one):
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1697704399617876468
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1697704399617876468
Could be interesting how they handle Paxton here wrt 2024. He’s obviously hitting the wall, and hard. The Royals at home is as peachy as it gets, and his schedule currently lines him up against the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox and Orioles to close out the year.
I wonder if they work out another extension for his 2024. They could shut him down, but only with his consent, and that doesn’t look good for his FA prospects. But neither does getting lit the fuck up all September.
Maybe a 1/$12M kind of extension could work? He’s clearly still the same guy when healthy, and it’s reasonable to think he can more often be that guy next year.
I wonder if they work out another extension for his 2024. They could shut him down, but only with his consent, and that doesn’t look good for his FA prospects. But neither does getting lit the fuck up all September.
Maybe a 1/$12M kind of extension could work? He’s clearly still the same guy when healthy, and it’s reasonable to think he can more often be that guy next year.
More seriously though his velocity has been consistently dropping month-over-month. Which you'd expect for someone that didn't throw for two years. @chawson maybe onto something about a "wall" with his slider dropping off the last few starts too. I remember reading somewhere that slider velo was often more predictive of workload issues.
There’s been a lot of ink about the Sox vaunted “pitching program” over the past few years, yet we see a lot of guys still pitching despite some pretty dramatic drops in velocity. Is this kind of decline in velocity during the season normal….at what point should a player be shut down?
I’d pass on Paxton, UNLESS you can
1. get him for the QO number, which lets you
2. move Sale to the pen (his $27M is already sunk and counting on him less would make me less anxious), while also
3. Signing Yamamoto + (say) Montgomery, and
4. Patching elsewhere
And make it all fit within the $277M threshold to avoid the draft penalties.
maybe like this?
SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Paxton, Kutter, Bello
RP: Winck, Martin, Jansen, Bernardino, Whitlock, Sale, Houck, Pivetta
(in the wings/on the shuttle guys: Schreiber, Murphy, Walter, Kelly, Llovera, Mata)
And, taking a swipe at the position players:
IF: Raffy, Story, Urias, Casas
OF: Duran, Verdugo, Duvall(?)
C: Wong
DH: Yoshida, RFsnyder,
Bench: McGuire (Hernandez?), Rafaela, Pablo
Might be lame, I realize, but I don’t nearly have the time to see if the salaries work or if other 40-man issues might press other priorities. And I was a bit lazy in going mostly with a “run it back”+ two new SPs.
Obviously I’d love for Chaim to do more. But could this represent a minimally viable option for ‘24?
1. get him for the QO number, which lets you
2. move Sale to the pen (his $27M is already sunk and counting on him less would make me less anxious), while also
3. Signing Yamamoto + (say) Montgomery, and
4. Patching elsewhere
And make it all fit within the $277M threshold to avoid the draft penalties.
maybe like this?
SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Paxton, Kutter, Bello
RP: Winck, Martin, Jansen, Bernardino, Whitlock, Sale, Houck, Pivetta
(in the wings/on the shuttle guys: Schreiber, Murphy, Walter, Kelly, Llovera, Mata)
And, taking a swipe at the position players:
IF: Raffy, Story, Urias, Casas
OF: Duran, Verdugo, Duvall(?)
C: Wong
DH: Yoshida, RFsnyder,
Bench: McGuire (Hernandez?), Rafaela, Pablo
Might be lame, I realize, but I don’t nearly have the time to see if the salaries work or if other 40-man issues might press other priorities. And I was a bit lazy in going mostly with a “run it back”+ two new SPs.
Obviously I’d love for Chaim to do more. But could this represent a minimally viable option for ‘24?