What Positions Should the Patriots Focus on Offense on Day 1 and Day 2 of the Draft

[SMU_Sox]

I think most of you in this subforum are familiar with The Drafting Stage and if not this is taking some of their ideas, altering them slightly, and then updating their totals.

In terms of which positions they should focus on the obvious answer is QB if they believe in the prospect. QB is almost always the answer - it's easier to get in round 1 and it is by far the most valuable position in football. So let's leave that aside. I think for most people the next answers are either OT or WR.

We know WRs are more valuable producing wins but we also know that OTs are hard to find and you need a competent line to win consistently. LT is still more important than RT but RT only maybe 25% less important so it's still up there.

I was looking from 2011-2020 for hit rates of WR and OT. The buckets The Drafting Stage uses are as follows:

1. Top 10 - Elite Starter
2. Top 15 - High Level Starter
3. Top 20 - 2nd Level Starter
4. Top 25 - Part Time Starter/Situational
5. Top 30 - Part Time Starter/Situational
6. Top 40 - Backup
7. Top 50 - Stopgap
8. Top 70 - Replacement Level

Small sample sizes as always. Also, I cheated a little for the top 10 picks of WRs as the 2021 and 2022 guys have already shown a lot so I added them.

What I am trying to do here is measure rookie contract production. For WRs I used yards per season benchmarks. For OTs I used PFF ratings - not ideal but the best we have. The drafting stage used second contracts - I wanted to avoid that and look at measurable production even if it just an aggregate of grades.

Wide Receivers:

Picks 1-10:


Rounds 2-3





Offensive Tackle:

Picks 1-10:


Rounds 2-3:



Here is the summary:


So while WR might be more valuable, it is much harder to find good tackles in rounds 2-3 and the Patriots need a tier 1-3 OT next year. Trent Brown is too unreliable and he isn't good for the culture.

You can still find top 20 WR types in rounds 2-3. It is at about half the hit rate of picks 1-10 but 27.6% is significantly higher than 15.6%.

I came into this thinking taking a game changing WR was the right move at the top of the draft but I think there is a persuasive argument that OT scarcity merits that position being taken first.

What do you all think?

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Absolutely agree on OT. If we are assuming both top two quarterbacks are gone and we are drafting next I would trade down if someone really wants Marvin Harrison. Then draft the best OT on the board with their first/next pick. I am curious as to which OT you think is the best fit for the Patriots?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Absolutely agree on OT. If we are assuming both top two quarterbacks are gone and we are drafting next I would trade down if someone really wants Marvin Harrison. Then draft the best OT on the board with their first/next pick.

Yes! Take more cracks at it. Another day 2 pick is another 25% shot at a tier 3 or better player at a lot of positions.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think it depends honestly.

#1 priority is obviously QB, but assuming they get shut out of the top 2 QBs, then you're looking at Harrison or one of the tackles I think.
Normally I lean tackle, but I do see the case that some see Harrison as one of the best WR prospects in years, while the tackles are more "good prospect" types, but may be wrong.

I would say that to me the positions spectrum should be QB>>>>>OT>WR, but that you can swap depending on the tier you have an individual in. So if you rate Harrison say as a 9.5/10 (too simplistic I know) and Fasahnu/Alt as 7.5/10 prospects, then you take the WR, but if all 3 are in the 9-9.5 range then you probably go OT.

Edit- I would also say that if you know a team at 4, 5,6, wants Harrison bad, trading down makes a lot of sense.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Yes! Take more cracks at it. Another day 2 pick is another 25% shot at a tier 3 or better player at a lot of positions.

Which OT do you think would be the best fit for them?

 

[SMU_Sox]

My gut tells me I will have MHJr. as an 8.5+ tier prospect and both the OTs as well as maybe a couple more as 8.0-8.49. He is absolutely on another level. Too early to tell with the OTs. 2022 film though would lead me to think that.

 

[BaseballJones]

They also have tons of money to spend to shore up the offense. Here's the list of FA at the OT position.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/tackle//

There's some good players that will be available should NE want to go that route. I am, of course, all for drafting not one, but TWO tackles this upcoming draft. But they could go with other spots and use FA $$ to sign a quality tackle.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Which OT do you think would be the best fit for them?

Which round? Which pick area? 1-10? 10-20? Round 2? Round 3?

I would need to see more tape. I should start digging in this weekend formally. LT wise you can't go wrong with either guy. If Alt has made the improvements the people I trust claim he has made than I would lean Alt.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Which round? Which pick area? 1-10? 10-20? Round 2? Round 3?

1st Round Pick 5-? The best OT available.

 

[BaseballJones]

If somehow they get a shot at Harrison, they have to take him. He's an all-world prospect. Great size (6'3", 202 lbs), incredible hands, phenomenal route runner, and has great speed. I don't know what his 40 time will be, but here's this from this Columbus Dispatch article on his first TD catch of the 2023 season:

"Harrison was one of two players to reach over 22 mph, along with Colorado running back Dylan Edwards. According to NFL Rookie Watch, Harrison's 22.2 mph max speed was faster than Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill's max speed of 21.66 mph in Week 1, and faster than any NFL player's max speed last season."

So yeah, he's also blazingly fast to go with his size, strength, hands, and route running. The total package at WR. Total game-changing player.

 

[BaseballJones]

Harrison highlights from this week's win over Michigan State.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kX8HH5XtOg


Color commentator after his TD on the slant:

"That's the thing about him. He's big, he's fast, he's got great hands, and he's a precise route runner."

I mean....he's a perfect WR prospect, yes?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah, that's the other thing - if you have one guy graded out that highly, and I think you would for MHJr. the whole positional scarcity of OT is less relevant because you're looking at a near flawless WR prospect and a guy I wouldn't be surprised wears a gold jacket one day. His 2022 tape was disgusting too. Like if I had one guess of who in this class is a HOFer? It's easily MHJr.. He should have the highest grade, not factoring in positional value, of all the guys in the draft. I think he's a better WR than either Maye or Williams are as QBs and that is absolutely no shot at either of them. It's just how good MHJr. is.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah, that's the other thing - if you have one guy graded out that highly, and I think you would for MHJr. the whole positional scarcity of OT is less relevant because you're looking at a near flawless WR prospect and a guy I wouldn't be surprised wears a gold jacket one day. His 2022 tape was disgusting too. Like if I had one guess of who in this class is a HOFer? It's easily MHJr.. He should have the highest grade, not factoring in positional value, of all the guys in the draft. I think he's a better WR than either Maye or Williams are as QBs and that is absolutely no shot at either of them. It's just how good MHJr. is.

Good words. The more I think about it, as badly as they need a QB - and QB is STILL a more important position than WR - if they could somehow land Harrison, that's got to be the play with their first pick. He's an absolutely generational talent at an enormous position of need at a time when WRs are changing the way the NFL game is played. They can always get a guy like Penix or Nix or McCarthy in the second round (one of them anyway) and take a shot there. Or, good grief, they could even sign Cousins if they wanted to go that route (not what I would recommend but it's totally defensible).

 

[SMU_Sox]

I would go Jayden Daniels myself over Penix, Nix, or JJ.

I don't think people realize how good he has been this season... yet. I have watched 5 of his games so far. Been blown away. No all-22 though. I have been trying to watch Oregon, Washington, LSU, for multiple reasons: they also have top WRs. Of the three my order would be Daniels, then Penix, then Nix.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

If they have the opportunity to draft Harrison I would take him over everyone else. I would not take a QB. He has the potential to be transformational for an offense-the gravity he brings will open up half the field in the way the Pats haven't been able to do since the Moss/peak Gronk days. It will make guys like Pop and whoever else the Pats bring in that much better. If they got him, I'd love them to grab a real receiving threat at TE to take advantage of the space Harrison will create.

If they dont have a chance to get Harrison, I hope they can get Alt or Fashanu. They need a top tier talent that they can build the line around.

Build the team, then get the QB. Mahomes is undeniably great, but he was drafted on to a playoff team that had prime Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and bookend OTs in Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher (and I'd quibble with the ranking above of Fisher as Tier 4-he started almost every game over 8 years for a team that was regularly in the playoffs). Mahomes didnt turn around some shitty 6-10 team. He elevated really talented guys to another level.

If they draft a QB later, I really hope they draft the guy with the best physical tools, plain and simple (Jayden Daniels is my new binkie). These "processor" types like Mac dont work unless you have a superior team around them. If a guy is going to make mistakes, I'd rather have him doing it trying to sling it 60 yards or run it in from 50 yards out. That's what coaching is for.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The Pats need game breaking receiving talent. I’d rather re-sign the frustrating Brown and draft Nabers than draft Alt and hope a 2nd round WR can develop into not just a solid NFL receiver but a true star.

as hard as it is to find quality tackles, it’s even harder to find true difference maker receivers. And I’d rather have a “solid” tackle than a “solid” WR. A guy like Suamataia in the 2nd at tackle with Nabers in the first has a better chance at moving the needle than Alt and Troy Franklin IMO.

of course, all of this is kind of moot because without a QB in round 1, I don’t see this offense getting back to being competitive. I don’t know how they address OT, QB and WR in the draft in any meaningful way. They’ll need to get a veteran starter at one of those spots which is why Trent Brown, flaws and all, seems like an obvious re-signing. They’re not going to find a QB or WR who upgraded the offense enough in the veteran market (assuming Higgins gets tagged)

As great as Alt and Fashanu are as prospects, I’d be fairly disappointed in either of them. The Pats need a franchise QB and a franchise WR and I don’t see either of those being likely outcomes after round 1 even in a deep QB/WR class.

 

[SMU_Sox]

To be fair Mac's post-snap processing, an issue discussed in depth pre-draft and during his first 3 years, is the issue. He frankly sucks right now post-snap.

If you don't have post-snap processing and you can't create out of structure... what do you bring to the table?

 

[IdiotKicker]

If they have the opportunity to draft Harrison I would take him over everyone else. I would not take a QB. He has the potential to be transformational for an offense-the gravity he brings will open up half the field in the way the Pats haven't been able to do since the Moss/peak Gronk days. It will make guys like Pop and whoever else the Pats bring in that much better. If they got him, I'd love them to grab a real receiving threat at TE to take advantage of the space Harrison will create.

If they dont have a chance to get Harrison, I hope they can get Alt or Fashanu. They need a top tier talent that they can build the line around.

Build the team, then get the QB. Mahomes is undeniably great, but he was drafted on to a playoff team that had prime Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and bookend OTs in Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher (and I'd quibble with the ranking above of Fisher as Tier 4-he started almost every game over 8 years for a team that was regularly in the playoffs). Mahomes didnt turn around some shitty 6-10 team. He elevated really talented guys to another level.

If they draft a QB later, I really hope they draft the guy with the best physical tools, plain and simple (Jayden Daniels is my new binkie). These "processor" types like Mac dont work unless you have a superior team around them. If a guy is going to make mistakes, I'd rather have him doing it trying to sling it 60 yards or run it in from 50 yards out. That's what coaching is for.

This is basically exactly where I land. I want my next QB to have a legit weapon to throw to and a tackle who can take an elite edge rusher off the board for a game. Harrison basically feels like drafting Calvin Johnson but having already developed into Calvin Johnson, so it's hard for me to say no to that idea.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The thing is though that finding a "solid" OT on day 2 is tough. If you define solid as a top 30 OT those hit rates are around 29% on day 2. Round 2 is a little better though. It is around a 43% hit rate. So if you aren't taking an OT round 1 you probably have to take one round 2 if you want a reasonable shot at that position.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

If they have the opportunity to draft Harrison I would take him over everyone else. I would not take a QB. He has the potential to be transformational for an offense-the gravity he brings will open up half the field in the way the Pats haven't been able to do since the Moss/peak Gronk days. It will make guys like Pop and whoever else the Pats bring in that much better. If they got him, I'd love them to grab a real receiving threat at TE to take advantage of the space Harrison will create.

If they dont have a chance to get Harrison, I hope they can get Alt or Fashanu. They need a top tier talent that they can build the line around.

Build the team, then get the QB. Mahomes is undeniably great, but he was drafted on to a playoff team that had prime Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and bookend OTs in Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher (and I'd quibble with the ranking above of Fisher as Tier 4-he started almost every game over 8 years for a team that was regularly in the playoffs). Mahomes didnt turn around some shitty 6-10 team. He elevated really talented guys to another level.

If they draft a QB later, I really hope they draft the guy with the best physical tools, plain and simple (Jayden Daniels is my new binkie). These "processor" types like Mac dont work unless you have a superior team around them. If a guy is going to make mistakes, I'd rather have him doing it trying to sling it 60 yards or run it in from 50 yards out. That's what coaching is for.

The problem with the “build the team get the QB later” approach is that it can take a lot of years to be in a draft slot where a franchise QB is available and pans out. You don’t want to end up in mid-1st round purgatory or have a top pick in a weak QB crop. By the time you find “the guy” those OT and WR will be approaching free agency, injured or flops.

IMO it’s find the QB first and then build the team around him. As incredible as Harrison is, and he’s a top 3 WR prospect in my 30+ years of draft watching, he’s not going to be incredible with an endless string of Zappe, Brissett, Minshew types throwing him the ball. By the time you find a Cousins or Purdy let alone a true franchise QB, Harrison could be asking for 30M a year and could be out the door.

If the Pats end up outside of Williams/Maye range and aren’t sold on QB3/4, they need to aggressively trade up to get a QB. Absent that, I guess I’d still go Harrison (if available) and hope a Penix, Ewers or whomever is available in round 2

 

[SMU_Sox]

Ultimately it's hard to solve OT, WR, and QB in one draft. Hard choices will have to be made and there are a lot of possible combinations you can have that look "good". This is probably at least a 2 year rebuild on offense. And the frustrating thing there is by that time the defense will have aged.

At this point they really need to get lucky in the draft to have any chance at competing in the next 2-3 years. Typically to get lucky one needs more picks and to get more picks one has to trade down at some point.

 

[SMU_Sox]

BTW @Super Nomario and I have both looked at this. You can get the QB first. You can build the team first. Either strategy works as long as you can get the QB eventually. My preference though is if you like the QB then take him. You might not get another shot at a guy you like of that caliber.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

BTW @Super Nomario and I have both looked at this. You can get the QB first. You can build the team first. Either strategy works as long as you can get the QB eventually. My preference though is if you like the QB then take him. You might not get another shot at a guy you like of that caliber.

I feel like Marvin Harrison Jr is so good that if you’re questioning whether the guys who will go top 5 are the answer, then you take him and, assuming there’s another one you like, if not love, trade back up into the first to get a QB.

But, yeah, I think if you see Maye, Williams or whoever else may push up into the top ten of draft boards as flawed but fixable/coachable, it’s hard to pass up that chance. While the error bars are pretty massive, I think I’d rather gamble on Williams than Maye; if it hits you have a special talent at the most important position, which I’m not sure Maye offers a realistic chance of being.

 

[BaseballJones]

WR Harrison and QB Penix

or

QB Maye and WR Legette?

 

[Toe Nash]

Generally I am of the opinion that this is a multi-year rebuild and they should be making decisions with being good in 2025-26 as the goal and not worry about next season too much. Doesn't mean you tank but maybe you don't spend all your FA money and you think about some guys who need development time, etc.

I definitely think they need more picks and I wish they had done some futures trading in past seasons to get there. I would strongly consider trading down if they end up outside of the top 3. Top 3 and you have to go with a QB or Harrison and not really overthink it.

Also, the defense is strong but keep in mind a lot of that side could change by the time they can rebuild the offense so you're going to want picks there too. I agree they should use their top picks on the offense this year but Judon is older, Dugger is an FA, etc.

One other thing to think about with offensive line is the influence a good QB has on the pass blocking. If you have a good QB who reads defenses well and gets rid of the ball quickly I think he can take an average line and be fine as long as there aren't huge weak spots. But, probably more true with the interior line and helps if you have TEs who can block a bit.

 

[deanx0]

Here's a question I don't know anything about, but I am sure we have some expertise or at least quality thoughts about. Assuming that this is not a one-year turnaround and that the Patriots will be in the top 10 of the draft in 2025 as well, does that impact the order of operations when it comes to which positions to pick? AKA is there already thoughts about the 25 draft in terms of blue chippers in those three positions that the Patriots should consider when making their 24 selection--will there be some top tier OTs in the 25 draft which makes taking Harrison this year the smarter choice? Are there some elite QBs coming in 25?

 

[PRabbit]

I agree with trading down in general UNLESS Harrison Jr is there when the Pats pick. He looks to be the best WR prospect in years. Even if Williams or Drake are there, the OL won't be able to keep them upright.

Trade down if Harrison isn't there while trying to stay in the top 20 (or before all the day 1 grade OTs are off the board), pick up a QB at the top of the 2nd (Daniels, Nix, etc) and get BPA down the draft.

This is a multi-year rebuild. Treat it as such.

 

[SMU_Sox]

WR Harrison and QB Penix

or

QB Maye and WR Legette?

All out on Legette. He's an old guy who didn't break out until now. He's a big dude who uses his size and strength to win but has a 3-4-5 year advantage on guys. Senior WRs are bad bets.

 

[amfox1]

On the assumption that NE does not have a top 3 pick, I'd pick whichever OT is available between Alt and Fashanu.

 

[Bowser]

Of the three my order would be Daniels, then Penix, then Nix.

If these QBs are likely to be there at the top of round 2, then I'm drafting a LT with our first pick. (Note: I don't think Nix will.)

Ideally, though, I'd prefer to trade down to 7-9, add an additional top pick(s), and still get Alt (LT) or Amarius Mims (RT -- love this guy) ... or a WR like Keon Coleman, who's pretty good:



In this scenario, I'd probably also double dip at QB with a Michael Pratt or Riley Leonard because we need more than one bite at the apple.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

So, in the very top of the draft -- let's say top 7 or top 10 -- how high are hit rates for non-QBs?

My perception -- which I'm guessing is subject to lots of noise and confirmation bias -- is that guys taken in the top few picks in the draft who are not QBs hit at a very high level. Not sure how to judge "hit" -- maybe second contract, or pro bowls, or whatever. But I feel like once a consensus develops for non-QBs and they go fairly high, they are almost always as advertised.

 

[Fishercat]

The more I see in terms of how NFL teams perform with young QBs, the more I see substantial value in that S-tier pass-catcher for a young QB. Looking at 2017-2021 first round QB picks, I also put their best WR in Year 3 next to them (NA if they are not on the original team), tell me if you feel there may be a trend on this. Some weren't clear so I made a judgment call

2021

Trevor Lawrence - Christian Kirk
Zach Wilson - Garrett Wilson
Trey Lance - N/A
Justin Fields - DJ. Moore
Mac Jones - Kendrick Bourne

2020

Joe Burrow - Jamarr Chase
Tua Tagovailoa - Tyreek Hill
Justin Herbert - Austin Ekeler/Keenan Allen
Jordan Love - N/A (he didn't really play - Allen Lazard is probably the answer)

2019

Kyler Murray - Christian Kirk (second sighting)
Daniel Jones - Evan Engram (funny enough also in Jacksonville now)
Dwayne Haskins - N/A

2018:

Baker Mayfield - Jarvis Landry
Sam Darnold - Jamison Crowder
Josh Allen - Stefon Diggs
Josh Rosen - N/A
Lamar Jackson - Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews

2017

Mitch Trubisky - Allen Robinson
Patrick Mahomes - Travis Kelce (or Tyreek Hill if you prefer)
Deshaun Watson - Deandre Hopkins

Like, there's obviously no guarantee that if you draft Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024, that the QB you inevitably try to get in 2025 will be able to use him well at all. And there's certainly some scessful QBs without top tier targets, but it certainly seems to help those QBs with their development. Like when you get to where Mahomes or Allen are now they can likely cover up some skill talent deficiencies.

I'm curious what the LT association would look like to be honest - I suspect it'd be substantial too, but generally it seems a pocket passer having a major target who can make those throws easier has major benefits (not surprising but...I'll just say if the Pats pick #3 and Maye and Williams are gone, I'd be quite happy with the WR pick).

 

[nighthob]

Is it terrible of me that I want to see the Patriots end up with Marvin Harrison Jr. in '24 and Arch Manning in '25 and mass hara kiri amongst the Colts fans?

 

[Cellar-Door]

The more I see in terms of how NFL teams perform with young QBs, the more I see substantial value in that S-tier pass-catcher for a young QB. Looking at 2017-2021 first round QB picks, I also put their best WR in Year 3 next to them (NA if they are not on the original team), tell me if you feel there may be a trend on this. Some weren't clear so I made a judgment call

2021

Trevor Lawrence - Christian Kirk
Zach Wilson - Garrett Wilson
Trey Lance - N/A
Justin Fields - DJ. Moore
Mac Jones - Kendrick Bourne

2020

Joe Burrow - Jamarr Chase
Tua Tagovailoa - Tyreek Hill
Justin Herbert - Austin Ekeler/Keenan Allen
Jordan Love - N/A (he didn't really play - Allen Lazard is probably the answer)

2019

Kyler Murray - Christian Kirk (second sighting)
Daniel Jones - Evan Engram (funny enough also in Jacksonville now)
Dwayne Haskins - N/A

2018:

Baker Mayfield - Jarvis Landry
Sam Darnold - Jamison Crowder
Josh Allen - Stefon Diggs
Josh Rosen - N/A
Lamar Jackson - Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews

2017

Mitch Trubisky - Allen Robinson
Patrick Mahomes - Travis Kelce (or Tyreek Hill if you prefer)
Deshaun Watson - Deandre Hopkins

Like, there's obviously no guarantee that if you draft Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024, that the QB you inevitably try to get in 2025 will be able to use him well at all. And there's certainly some scessful QBs without top tier targets, but it certainly seems to help those QBs with their development. Like when you get to where Mahomes or Allen are now they can likely cover up some skill talent deficiencies.

I'm curious what the LT association would look like to be honest - I suspect it'd be substantial too, but generally it seems a pocket passer having a major target who can make those throws easier has major benefits (not surprising but...I'll just say if the Pats pick #3 and Maye and Williams are gone, I'd be quite happy with the WR pick).

Christian Kirk?
He's a mid 2nd round pick who was never really a #1 WR until the Jags paid a bunch of money to give him a million targets before replacing him as a #1 WR. He's very much not a top talent WR

 

[Fishercat]

Christian Kirk?
He's a mid 2nd round pick who was never really a #1 WR until the Jags paid a bunch of money to give him a million targets before replacing him as a #1 WR. He's very much not a top talent WR

I agree. I just thought it was funny here was there twice.