What storyline are you most looking forward to?

Which Player or Storyline are you most excited to see play out? (Hitters)

  • Pablo: defensive quickness, RHH swing (...and weight)

    Votes: 6 3.4%
  • Hanley: 1B defense, overall health

    Votes: 21 12.1%
  • Xander: power surge, BABIP, hair

    Votes: 28 16.1%
  • Dustin; health, quickness, health, and health

    Votes: 3 1.7%
  • Mookie: Can he possibly build on top of 2015?

    Votes: 50 28.7%
  • Rusney: Start drawing conclusions about that $72.5 million

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Jackie Jr: switch-hitting, hitting better

    Votes: 39 22.4%
  • Vazquez/Swihart/Hanigan: Who and how much?

    Votes: 7 4.0%
  • BROCK HOLT!: at-bats, karma, jersey number, hair

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Papi: Retirement tour, all-time HR list

    Votes: 18 10.3%

  • Total voters
    174

JimBoSox9

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Opening day is 4 weeks away from today, and there are whole heaps of new moving parts going into the 2016 edition of the Red Sox. Mr. @absintheofmalaise earlier today published a summary write-up of the most interesting storylines we're following and talking about. There are the obvious ones

He is 27th on the all-time HR list with 503. If he stays healthy and continues hitting home runs at the same rate he has for the past couple of years, he will end up in the Top 20 in home runs, passing such all-time greats as Ted Williams and Frank Thomas, both with 521 homers . He could even pass Jimmie Foxx (534) and Mickey Mantle (536) and end his career at #17 on the all-time home run list.
And the not-so-obvious ones

(Brock Holt) has had a traumatic offseason, losing not only his number, but also his trademark hair. There is historical precedent for people to grow weak and lose some of their skills and strength when this happens. We’ll see how his haircut and his gracious gesture to give up his number so that the Sox could retire it to honor Wade Boggs affects his game.
And the ones, that, frankly, we're gonna need a lotta help and articles to figure out and follow along with over the season.

Vazquez is on track with his rehab to start throwing in game action soon. With his superior defensive abilities, he could become the primary catcher should either starter Blake Swihart or backup Ryan Hanigan falter or suffer injury.
...
Swihart performed remarkably well considering he wasn’t expected to show his face at Fenway until this season at the very earliest. He spent the first half of 2015 studying the pitchers and learning how to call a game. His offensive numbers reflected his defensive priorities, as he hit just .241 in the first half.
So, 28 Days Before, which narratives and variables heading into the 2016 season are winding your clock the most? What are you looking most forward to watch playing out? Don't make me search your posting history - tell me here, and vote!
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I find none of those to be particularly compelling. Well .. Maybe Vazquez .. But the 5th starter gig is the one I'm watching. It's probably Kelly's to lose but I expect Owens to give him a good run. EdRo's knee problem may create an opening as well.

The other story is whether Stephen Wright makes the club - which I fully expect as
a) he's an MLB quality pitcher and
b) he's out of options
 

JimBoSox9

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But the 5th starter gig is the one I'm watching. It's probably Kelly's to lose but I expect Owens to give him a good run. EdRo's knee problem may create an opening as well.
Whoops, I should have been more clear...Abs' article I quoted is covering storylines for the position players. He's going to follow it (tomorrow? whenever? with another piece on the pitchers' storylines, and I'll add another poll for that.
 

Hank Scorpio

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I'm extremely excited to see if X can develop his power, but I'm almost equally excited to see another year of Mookie and how JBJ progresses.

But then again, I'm excited about everything this year.

I hadn't heard JBJ was going to try out switch hitting. Interesting, since at the MLB level he's shown a reverse split. Didn't seem to have much of a split in the minors if I recall correctly.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I voted Hanley.

Wouldn't it be something if he ended up playing a league average 1B and OPS'd near .900 / hit over .310 and at the same time protected Ortiz so well that David hits 50 homeruns.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I'm extremely excited to see if X can develop his power, but I'm almost equally excited to see another year of Mookie and how JBJ progresses.

But then again, I'm excited about everything this year.

I hadn't heard JBJ was going to try out switch hitting. Interesting, since at the MLB level he's shown a reverse split. Didn't seem to have much of a split in the minors if I recall correctly.
It's in this article by Bradford from WEEI and the Globe mentioned it a few days later.
He has been so successful that the outfielder has holstered a potential very real weapon — switch-hitting.

“I’ve thought about it ever since I stopped,” Bradley said.

The lefty hitter abandoned the practice of switch-hitting as a 12-year-old, not needing to hit from the right side (which he identifies as his natural side of the plate) due to the lack of left-handed pitching he was facing.

“I’ve thought about it, but I never really struggled mightily against lefties so I guess it was almost like what’s the point? I like it,” Bradley said. “I still do it quite a bit.”


Hitting right-handed has become part of Bradley’s routine when starting his batting practice. It not only serves a purpose, according to Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis, but has left quite an impression.
The pitching storylines article will be coming out in a few days.I just started working on it today.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I think Hanley is the one that could have the most impact on the team's success. It's not impossible to picture him being as productive as he was in 2014, and that would make the Sox line-up altogether different from what they ran out in 2015.

I hope (and expect) incremental improvement from X, Mookie, JBJ, Swihart and ERod. I expect Panda will be at least a little more of a contributor too. But Hanley's the guy I think could contribute the single biggest difference.

That said, if you're asking what I care about the most, it's Papi. I desperately would love to see him wrap things up happy and productive and still feared as one of the game's great power hitters.

EDIT: Can I assume you were focusing exclusively on hitters and not pitchers. Price and Kimbrel, I'm told, are pretty good and could make highly-anticipated contributions!

EDIT EDIT: Ah, pitchers coming up. Got it.
 

keninten

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Last year I was really excited about watching Vazquez throwing runners out. I`m still excited. The kids always thrill me and what I`m usually following closing in the spring. Hanley is the most important story. If he hits like he did last April, I think it could be the biggest difference on this years team.
 

JBJ_HOF

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It's going to be awesome watching people clamoring for Vazquez realize how wrong they are, it's going to be terrible to see Bogaerts not have bloops fall in to shallow right field and see him turn into a 280/305/435 hitter. Can also envision a scenario where Smith has TJ, Koji's arm explodes and Taz's arm is just done.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It's going to be awesome watching people clamoring for Vazquez realize how wrong they are, it's going to be terrible to see Bogaerts not have bloops fall in to shallow right field and see him turn into a 280/305/435 hitter. Can also envision a scenario where Smith has TJ, Koji's arm explodes and Taz's arm is just done.
Aren't you just a right ray of sunshine.

I'm going with Pedroia and his health. I'd love to see him play 145+ games and not be hampered by a nagging injury or three just one more time before he retires. I feel like all the other storylines are going to be beaten to death, while Pedroia is going to just chug along slightly under the radar, hopefully being the little engine that makes the whole team go.
 

TheoShmeo

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I voted Papi because of my intense love for that man. Re-watching the 04 video that Tony posted made my room a little dusty and reinforced how amazing it is that the biggest single hero of the 04 ride was still playing at such a high level at the end of last season.

That said, the story I am really most looking forward to seeing is how this pen works out. If Koji is back to being Koji, and Tazawa was only temporarily Proctored last season, this pen could be quite formidable. And I think it will need to be in light of the apparent fall off after Price in the rotation. And that said, each one of those topics is pretty interesting to me. This is a poll where it's pretty hard to make a bad choice...except maybe Brock Holt, as we know what we have there.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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For me, the biggest story of 2016 is about the #4-8 pitchers.

I expect Price to be great, but since I'll never love him the way I loved Pedro nor root for him to overcome his circumstances the way I did for Lester, it's not like I'll be hanging on every pitch he throws.

I expect Buchholz to be infuriating, sometimes incredibly dominant, sometimes lost to the squirrels in his brain, and always one pitch away from a season-ending injury.

I expect Porcello to be boring, but able to eat innings.

But I have no idea what to expect from Rodriguez, Kelly, Owens, Wright, and Elias. And it's on the success of that group that I'll be pinning my hopes for the Red Sox season. Because realistically, The Sox will need to get 2-1/2 good seasons worth of decent starts from them. Those 500 innings are, to my mind, the key to whether the Sox make the playoffs or not.

The #4-5 guys can be so good. We got a tease of that from Kelly and Rodriguez's hot streaks last season. Or, they could be terrible, and then it will be up to the #1-3 guys to keep the team afloat until Farrell can sort things out.

It's always a fun ride, not knowing what to expect and hoping for the best.
 

BestGameEvah

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I voted Mookie, cuz he's going to keep rising in front of our eyes.
But how do we let Ortiz know all that he's meant to us?
Vasquez is the man and I hope he can stay healthy enough to show you, JBJ_Hof!
Speaking of JBJ, maybe he should worry about putting up consistent at bats before he
toys with switch hitting (Stopped at age 12 but 'just gonna pick it up?')
Pedroia, Shaw, Holt.....let's hope they all combine for good stories in '16.
 

Darnell's Son

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For me, the biggest story of 2016 is about the #4-8 pitchers.

I expect Price to be great, but since I'll never love him the way I loved Pedro nor root for him to overcome his circumstances the way I did for Lester, it's not like I'll be hanging on every pitch he throws.

I expect Buchholz to be infuriating, sometimes incredibly dominant, sometimes lost to the squirrels in his brain, and always one pitch away from a season-ending injury.

I expect Porcello to be boring, but able to eat innings.

But I have no idea what to expect from Rodriguez, Kelly, Owens, Wright, and Elias. And it's on the success of that group that I'll be pinning my hopes for the Red Sox season. Because realistically, The Sox will need to get 2-1/2 good seasons worth of decent starts from them. Those 500 innings are, to my mind, the key to whether the Sox make the playoffs or not.

The #4-5 guys can be so good. We got a tease of that from Kelly and Rodriguez's hot streaks last season. Or, they could be terrible, and then it will be up to the #1-3 guys to keep the team afloat until Farrell can sort things out.

It's always a fun ride, not knowing what to expect and hoping for the best.
Right, which we'll be covering later in the week, which you would know if you read this post:
It's in this article by Bradford from WEEI and the Globe mentioned it a few days later.


The pitching storylines article will be coming out in a few days.I just started working on it today.
The rest of us are discussing the hitters.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Doesn't JBJ have enough to worry about in terms of consistently showing that his bat can keep him in the major leagues without screwing around with switch hitting? How many players have succesfully learned to switch hit at a major league level? It doesn't sound like the best venue for on-the-job training to me.
 

geoduck no quahog

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It's going to be awesome watching people clamoring for Vazquez realize how wrong they are, it's going to be terrible to see Bogaerts not have bloops fall in to shallow right field and see him turn into a 280/305/435 hitter. Can also envision a scenario where Smith has TJ, Koji's arm explodes and Taz's arm is just done.
Could you please self deport?
 

dbn

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I voted JBJ but not because of the switch hitting thing. Before I read the choices, my first thought was, while most of the young-position-player attention goes to Betts and Bogaerts, I'm excited to watch Bradley (relatively speaking) quietly establish himself as a legitimate offensive weapon, while doing his usual beautiful stuff in the outfield.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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The rest of us are discussing the hitters.
Right, but the confusion starts in right from the first response by BCsMightyJoeYoung.

You really might want to re-title the thread differently than "What storyline are you most looking forward to?" as well to the poll title, if you want to make your limiting conditions more than just a parenthetical note.

Sorry to have derailed.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Doesn't JBJ have enough to worry about in terms of consistently showing that his bat can keep him in the major leagues without screwing around with switch hitting? How many players have succesfully learned to switch hit at a major league level? It doesn't sound like the best venue for on-the-job training to me.
I take it more as a sign that he's feeling more comfortable and confident, though, which is probably a good thing.
 

Darnell's Son

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Right, but the confusion starts in right from the first response by BCsMightyJoeYoung.

You really might want to re-title the thread differently than "What storyline are you most looking forward to?" as well to the poll title, if you want to make your limiting conditions more than just a parenthetical note.

Sorry to have derailed.
Right, and it ended there if you continued to read the thread, which it appears you didn't.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Right, and it ended there if you continued to read the thread, which it appears you didn't.
No, I didn't. You're absolutely right that I didn't.

I didn't read through the discussion first, because this thread's framed as an opinion poll rather than as a general discussion thread.

Opinion polls don't usually require respondents to read through others' opinions before providing their own. I responded appropriately to what turned out to be a misleading thread title and poll. I didn't find a compelling choice for a radio button, so I jumped straight to a text response.

I already apologized for that.

However, the fact that the thread title was misleading was pointed out by the very first person to respond, who responded basically like I just did. And after that very first exchange, no action was taken to change the thread title.

Guess what? The thread title is still misleading, if what you're looking for here is a focused discussion about the hitters.

It's not just the pitchers you apparently want to limit out of a discussion on "What storyline are you most looking forward to?" because the coaching staff also carries a heap of storylines, from Farrell and his romantic affair with Jessica Moran to Lovullo getting paid manager-level money to be the bench coach to Amaro getting hired to coach first base after being an MLB General Manager.

Those are valid storylines that some folks might want to talk about as the most important storyline of spring training. If, for example, Farrell has lost some control of the clubhouse by -- as Jackie MacMullin put it -- unprofessionally choosing to bang one of the reporters following the team, that may be a hugely important storyline for the team this spring.

But again, if an open discussion about the team's important storylines isn't actually what you want in this thread, how about using your mod powers to correct what remains problematic about the thread and poll titles?

Or, you could just follow up with another one-liner against me making a mistake I already apologized for.

Sorry for the derail. Again.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I voted for the catching option. I think there's a decent chance Swihart emerges as an All-Star this year, a working man's Posey, OPSing over .800 and playing outstanding defense, and that could transform the whole makeup of the team.

But it was tough to pass up the Xander (can he find the power stroke while picking up where he left off defensively?), JBJ (will the real hitter please stand up?) and Hanley (can he be a non-train-wreck at 1B, and if not, what the hell do they do?) angles.
 

DanoooME

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I'm looking most forward to Xander, as I voted in the poll, but I'm most worried about Rusney. Is he going to hit enough to justify HIS spot? There's a lot of valid talk about JBJ and his bat, which makes a lot of sense, so I hope Rusney continues to fly under the radar and avoids problems with the bat as well. Because there isn't THAT much depth to overcome two crappy OF bats and I would think JBJs defense in CF is easier to justify keeping in the lineup if they both struggle.
 

TheoShmeo

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One more point on the catching option.

My assumption is that if and when they determine that Vazquez is healthy enough to be the starter, that they will trade Hanigan. He's a reasonably valuable commodity in that teams are always looking for catching and it's hard to imagine the Sox keeping a healthy Vazquez (or Swihart) in AAA for long.

The playing time question then becomes pretty interesting in my view. Does one get a clear majority of the starts? Do they effectively split the job? I cannot remember any team having two promising young catchers come up at the same time. Interesting stuff, and it's also unique in that they have inverse skill sets, with Swihart being more of an offensive catcher and Vazquez being more of a defensive one. Would they use Vazquez as a late game replacement in close games or pinch hit for Vazquez in same? Seems unusual but this situation is unusual. And I know that managers are reluctant to risk having to stick someone like Brock Holt in at catcher in case of an injury that follows such a move, so maybe the answer to that one is "hardly ever."
 

TheoShmeo

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This would only make sense if Swihart were a defensive liability. Which he isn't.
I wont quibble about semantics but I think the jury is still out on Swihart's defensive abilities at catcher. One thing is clear: Vazquez is universally seen as the superior defensive catcher. As a result, there could be late game circumstances when you would prefer to have your best defensive catcher behind the plate. As I said, I understand the reluctance to play your second catcher and leave yourself vulnerable, and perhaps that underlies your reaction. If so, I get it.
 

phenweigh

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I voted Mookie, though many other choices are about equally tempting. The tie-breaker was watching him run the bases ... there is a sort of reckless abandon that just seems to exude joy. Not that his baserunning is a storyline, but if he's getting on base at a high clip, that is.
 

BestGameEvah

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Maybe we can add the Moncada at second base as an option!
Happening today: via Scott Lauber tweet
You read that right: Top prospect Yoan Moncada will play second base for #RedSox in Grapefruit League game vs. Pirates in Bradenton
 

Rasputin

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Maybe we can add the Moncada at second base as an option!
Happening today: via Scott Lauber tweet
You read that right: Top prospect Yoan Moncada will play second base for #RedSox in Grapefruit League game vs. Pirates in Bradenton
There's no Sox broadcast but there is a Pirates broadcast if you have mlb.tv or EI.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm looking forward to seeing the kids (or at least most of them, hopefully!) take the next step.

That and Allen Craig. He's going to surprise some people!

Okay, I'm optimistic but not crazy. But hopefully the Sox can get something out of Allen Craig, other than him providing food to the AAA team.
 

flymrfreakjar

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He's also raking this spring, with a home run, a bunch of walks, and an OPS over 1.700.
They said on a broadcast (can't remember when) that they're trying to get him to be more aggressive early in the count. Does anyone know how to find the data to see if he was swinging earlier during his insane month last season?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Trading Hannigan (or any decent defensive and competent offensive catcher) mid-season to move Vazquez (it's more likely to be Vazquez in AAA to start the season) up seems dangerous to me. Pitchers establish comfort levels with specific catchers and I could envision the wheels coming off Buchholz or Kelly after changing their catcher. The return on any trade I hope would be balanced with that possibility in mind- not just that Vazquez is looking healthy and killing it in AAA
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Pitchers establish comfort levels with specific catchers and I could envision the wheels coming off Buchholz or Kelly after changing their catcher.
This might be more of a live issue if we were talking about a catcher they'd never worked with before, or had had bad experiences with. But Buchholz and Kelly both had their best stretches by far in 2014 when they were throwing to Vazquez. Buchholz had an ERA of 3.64 in 11 starts with Vazquez, 6.63 in 17 starts with Pierzynski and Ross. Probably a good deal of noise there, but it's hard to imagine Clay being unhappy about the idea of working with him again. Kelly also did very well throwing to Vazquez, though in a much smaller sample (4 starts, 2.49 ERA, .583 OPS allowed).
 
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I'm really hoping Xander can stick as a major-league SS. B-ref's "Runs from Fielding" stat (based on DRS) had him as a perfectly average SS last year, after a -16 runs in 2014. I'd really like 2015 to not be an aberration, because finding a SS who can hit above league average is a rare, rare thing.
 

iayork

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They said on a broadcast (can't remember when) that they're trying to get him to be more aggressive early in the count. Does anyone know how to find the data to see if he was swinging earlier during his insane month last season?
It's an interesting idea, but sample size will be a problem addressing it with any confidence. I looked at first-pitch swing rate, which isn't quite the same thing as "swinging earlier in the count" or "aggressiveness", and it kind of but not really correlated with his OPS, except when it didn't. I don't think this gives an answer either way.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Fascinating implied storyline there in terms of him changing his approach as a response to success/lack thereof. It would be interesting to see this for other hitters to see if this kind of pattern is typical. (It would also be interesting to see it broken down as first-pitch O-Swing/Z-Swing; I wonder if the sharp dip right after his OPS peak in mid-August was partly a matter of pitchers starting to work him more carefully.)
 

flymrfreakjar

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It's an interesting idea, but sample size will be a problem addressing it with any confidence. I looked at first-pitch swing rate, which isn't quite the same thing as "swinging earlier in the count" or "aggressiveness", and it kind of but not really correlated with his OPS, except when it didn't. I don't think this gives an answer either way.
Thanks so much for organizing the data! You're right, hard to glean anything too concrete right now, but it may be worth keeping an eye on during the season.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Very small sample size, but Sean McAdam had this in a column last week:

"Bradley began doing this more last season, and the results were eye-opening. In 22 at-bats in which Bradley chose to swing at the first pitch, he was 10-for-22 (.455) with three extra-base hits [two doubles and a single.’’
Doesn't necessarily tie into the August Hot Streak, though.
 

phenweigh

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