What to expect from Brady in 2015-16?

[Devizier]

Breaking out from the catch-all DG thread:
 
 

Which is why we’ve ranked Tom Brady No. 1 in The MMQB 100, our countdown of the most influential people for the 2015 season. There isn’t yet a final answer on whether or not Brady will serve the length of the original four-game suspension issued by the NFL (or if he will serve any suspension at all), but we know Brady will be back on the field by mid-October, for the ever-so-conveniently scheduled game against the Colts. History tells us Brady will play the A.D. years of his career with a vengeance. So does his longtime teammate, Rodney Harrison:


http://mmqb.si.com/2015/07/17/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-nfl-deflategate-the-mmqb-100/

 
Should we expect a 2006-2007 vintage performance from Brady? I know others have been concerned that the DG nonsense would be distracting in a *negative* way, maybe taking out time from Brady's meticulous offseason routines. I, personally, have no idea. This offseason has really been without precedent. I suppose the DG nonsense will certainly test the "motivation" hypothesis. Any reasonable projection should probably expect the same or worse performance from Brady, given his advancing age.
 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
Breaking out from the catch-all DG thread:
 
 
 
Should we expect a 2006-2007 vintage performance from Brady? I know others have been concerned that the DG nonsense would be distracting in a *negative* way, maybe taking out time from Brady's meticulous offseason routines. I, personally, have no idea. This offseason has really been without precedent. I suppose the DG nonsense will certainly test the "motivation" hypothesis. Any reasonable projection should probably expect the same or worse performance from Brady, given his advancing age.
 
 

 
/thread.

 

[tims4wins]

One for the thumb.
 
On a more serious tack, the last 12 games of the year - when Gronk was back to being healthy - Brady put up numbers that projected to the following over a 16 game season:
593 attempts
389 completions
65.6%
4424 yards
7.46 YPA
38.7 TD
9.3 INT
103.0 passer rating
 
These are very good numbers, but still down from "vintage Brady" numbers. If I had to venture a guess - and this is based on him playing 16 games - his yardage will be similar (and maybe slightly up since the defense will likely be worse, and Ridley / Vereen are gone), he will likely throw a few less TD (somewhere in the 32-26 range), and likely a few more INT (12-14) since INT% tends to normalize a bit.

 

[DJnVa]

These are very good numbers, but still down from "vintage Brady" numbers
 

 
Those prorated numbers are not down from vintage Brady numbers at all.
 
It would be his 4th most yards, 2nd most TDs, 4th best completion %, 4th fewest INTs, and 4th highest passer rating.
 
That's top tier Brady.

 

[Stitch01]

Easier offensive environment then different portions of Brady's career though.  The advanced stats would put him below his '07-'11 peak, but that's not a knock since those were legit GOAT performances.  He was still great last year and will be great this year even if he regresses a little bit.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

0/0/0/0
 
Brady gets 4 games, Jimmy Touchdown comes in and Brady loses his job. He's then traded to the Bills.

 

[bernardsamuel]

Since there are no wrong answers to a speculation-thread, I'll chime in.  Starting with my premise that the defense will be more challenged than last year, given the turnover in the secondary, I think we'll see a more ball control oriented offense, meaning that there will be less use of the hurry-up motif and more reliance on the running game (I think Blount and Gray will both have strong seasons).  I believe that when the Patriots have a Timlin-proof (or whatever the metaphor is in the NFL) lead, they'll take Brady out and mitigate the risk of injury at the costs of reducing statistical performance and of running up scores. 
 
...and as much as I'd like to buy into the concept that the Colts will totally be destroyed in the sixth overall week of the season due to all the motivational factors, I think I'd vote that to be the game most likely to be won by our newly-contracted kicker at the last moment (remembering the more recent unfortunate ending of a Super Bowl for us, when every motivation was for the Patriots to destroy the Giants - one can control one's own motivations but not the motivations of others). 
 
Overall, I'm expecting a great season for Brady as to the touchdown/interception ratio, but I think that both numbers in that fraction will be down from Brady's presumptively-peak years.  I expect a peak year in completion percentage, given the more ball-control offense I've predicted, which infers an emphasis on the short passing game.  ...and FWIW, I don't think that he'll have any suspension to be served ever, but certainly none within this season.

 

[Dogman]

Trade him now and maximize his return.  He is clearly trending in the wrong direction.

 

[Dogman]

4000+ yards
33+ TD's
< 10 INT's
65%+ passer rating
Exceptionally handsome
One hell of a model American

 

[Kliq]

Brady will evaporate opposing defenses like Dr. Manhattan in Vietnam.

 

[dbn]

Brady will miss the first four games of the season while on trial for strangling Roger Goodell with his bare hands. After being released with a verdict of justifiable homicide, he breaks the single-season passing yardage and TD records in only 12 games.
 
To be serious-er, I expect Brady to continue his slow evolution as a QB. I don't expect we'll ever see him throwing the deep ball like 2007, but he doesn't need to do that to win. I'd guess numbers close to last seasons (I know, a boring prediction, but I don't think he's close to the cliff yet, and it's also hard to imagine him getting drastically better at his age.)

 

[Myt1]

Trade him now and maximize his return.  He is clearly trending in the wrong direction.

Quoted for truth. I think the only question is whether to do it individually or in a package deal with Belichick.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

One hell of a model American

 
Couldn't resist
 

 
edit: Thanks, dbn

 

[dbn]

 
https://youtu.be/vi1-IihX6yY
 
Couldn't resist.
 
edit: don't know how to embed vids

 
The whole "Share" and "Embed" thing on youtube is a red herring. Copy the url from the top of your browser and paste it right into your post.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

 
The whole "Share" and "Embed" thing on youtube is a red herring. Copy the url from the top of your browser and paste it right into your post.

 
Much obliged.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Lots of comments by people like Rodney Harrison saying that Brady will be more motivated than ever.  I don't usually buy into remarks like that.  After all, Brady is going to be a year older and I don't think lack of motivation was ever a factor in one his poor performances.  Like many posters here, I believe his play will be determined by Gronk's health, the Pats' new guard rotation and the defense.  I'm hoping their revamped secondary doesn't cause the offense to get too predictable and pass heavy.  
 
All that said, the fanboy in me can't help but be a little excited by these remarks...
 

“He’s fired up,” Edelman told reporters. “You don’t want a mad Tom Brady, and he’s a little ticked off.”
 

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Damien Woody had some nice things to say about Brady in that article. Wonder why the change of tone since his previous post deflate comments.

 

[RedOctober3829]

A factor in his performance if he misses no games is the 6 divisional games against improved Jets, Miami, and Buffalo defenses.

 

[quint]

Single handedly stops an asteroid the size of Delaware from smashing into the earth thereby avoiding an extinction level event.

Beds and becomes biblically familiar with each of the past four presidential wives.

Figures out how to time travel through the power of being ridiculously handsome and prevents George Lucas from making the prequel trilogy on a wager over a game of cornhole.

Gets Mr. Weebles back on SoSH as a mod in V&N.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Damien Woody had some nice things to say about Brady in that article. Wonder why the change of tone since his previous post deflate comments.

It's not really inconsistent. Woody thinks he did it, and also thinks Brady is pissed and will play his best because of the attention it has received. Now, I think Woody is wrong, but I can't fault him for being honest.

 

[simplyeric]

And of course, any decline in his numbers, whether due to his age, better opposing D, different game plan, injured receivers, will be interpreted as evidence that he can't play as well with 'regulation footballs'.

 

[bakahump]

And of course, any decline in his numbers, whether due to his age, better opposing D, different game plan, injured receivers, will be interpreted as evidence that he can't play as well with 'regulation footballs'.

Except in the Second half.....and in Super Bowls.
 
But yea I agree that for most mediots (and alot of fans) that will be the narrative.

 

[SoxJox]

Beds and becomes biblically familiar with each of the past four presidential wives.

 
Given his supposed political persuasion, I don't think two of those are remotely possible.

 

[snowmanny]

 
Given his supposed political persuasion, I don't think two of those are remotely possible.

Why?

 

[Saints Rest]

Lots of comments by people like Rodney Harrison saying that Brady will be more motivated than ever.  I don't usually buy into remarks like that.  After all, Brady is going to be a year older and I don't think lack of motivation was ever a factor in one his poor performances.  Like many posters here, I believe his play will be determined by Gronk's health, the Pats' new guard rotation and the defense.  I'm hoping their revamped secondary doesn't cause the offense to get too predictable and pass heavy.  
 
All that said, the fanboy in me can't help but be a little excited by these remarks...
 

I agree with you.  The obvious converse to the idea that someone is now "more motivated" because of <insert perceived slight here>, is that the rest of the time, the person in question DOESN'T give 100%.  
 
Maybe in the case of training, these perceived slights might help drive you thru the doldrums of the long off-season, but during an actual game, especially in a skill position, I don't think "extra motivation" comes into play at all, at least not in a beneficial way (I think someone who needs to throw a ball with precision can be adversely affected by being too amped up).

 

[ivanvamp]

What to expect out of Brady this year? Dude is gonna kick some ass, that's what.

 

[amarshal2]

I don't think Brady was lacking motivation in 2014 so I consider al that to be noise. I'd be thrilled with anything resembling his week 5-16 2014.

 

[SoxJox]

Why?

I believe the speculation is that Brady is right-leaning.  I don't know, but it seemed to be the whispered reason for his not attending the WH ceremony.
 
If true, and I have no idea, that would exclude HRC (I can't even imagine what images might come to mind or the possibilities no matter what persuasion he might be) and Michelle, which might be quite right...er, left.  Whatever.
 
Edit: Just to be clear, this is with massive tongue in cheek.

 

[txexile]

Although we're focusing on what to expect from Brady in 2015-16, let's remember (as TB12 always does) that there's a whole locker room of players who will be on the team as well. And many of them are pretty damn sick and tired of hearing their awesome Super Bowl run be diminished with all this deflation talk. Perhaps Tom is too uber professional now to ever have this kind of psychological issue play into his physical performance. But there are a lot of 24- and 25-year-olds on this team who are going to want to prove they earned their victory every step of the way.
 
The only professional football game I have ever attended in person was on Oct. 14, 2007, when my local Dallas Cowboys hosted the New England Patriots. Both teams were 5-0 going into the game and all of Texas was smacking its lips in anticipation of feasting on the visiting Patriots. The Cowboys went to 12-1 that year before ultimately finishing at 13-3. So they had credibility as a team. But the Patriots absolutely mopped Texas Stadium up with the Cowboys, That Patriots team had heard enough of Spygate and they were going to show the league that they did not win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years because they were cheating. Every single possession was a laugh as the Pats just rolled over the Cowboys, 48-27. (Probably worth keeping that trouncing in mind next time Roger Staubach opens his mouth about cheating. Whiner.)
 
I think this year's team will react in the same way. We've already heard Gronk weigh in on how tedious the deflation talk is. (And for an example of how Gronk gets when he's tired about talk, just ask Sergio Brown). Several key players are coming up for big contracts after the season and will be motivated on top of motivated. I'm expecting a lot from the Patriots in 2015-16.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdPReTnmcak

 

[simplyeric]

That is why I love deflategate.

 

[axx]

Tough to say, but I'm assuming the Patriots defense is going to be awful. And so whoever the QB is they are going to have to throw. Brady misses those four games, he's going to be "behind" the rest of the league in terms of game speed.

 

[Super Nomario]

Tough to say, but I'm assuming the Patriots defense is going to be awful. And so whoever the QB is they are going to have to throw. Brady misses those four games, he's going to be "behind" the rest of the league in terms of game speed.

Why do you assume the Patriots defense is going to be awful? The secondary took a big hit in the offseason, obviously, but the front 7 would seem to be pretty stacked with the additions of Sheard and Brown and the returns of Mayo and Easley. Do you think a) the corners are so bad that they can't be compensated for, b) the front seven is overrated / bad, or c) something else?

 

[axx]

Why do you assume the Patriots defense is going to be awful? The secondary took a big hit in the offseason, obviously, but the front 7 would seem to be pretty stacked with the additions of Sheard and Brown and the returns of Mayo and Easley. Do you think a) the corners are so bad that they can't be compensated for, b) the front seven is overrated / bad, or c) something else?

 
I was mostly focusing on the secondary, yeah. Kind of expecting them to go back to Bend but don't break.
 
Come to think of it, they are also kind of thin at RB too.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I agree that the Patriots D has a chance to be better than awful, and I agree that their front 7 has a chance to be pretty interesting. But as pleased as I am with the development of a potentially stellar LB here and there, and as fingers-crossed intrigued as I am by the DLs we've recently drafted, the idea that Jabaal Sheard and ANYONE, coupled with the return of Jerod Mayo, will make that unit anything like "pretty stacked" seems like overstatement to me. Sheard is a nice pick-up, I'm glad we got him, and I'm happy Brown fell to #32, but this D is really unlikely to be stacked, and that's pretty much all because of the secondary. I would love to be wrong on this.

 

[dcmissle]

I have always been skeptical of anger fueling performance, particularly by people who are already ultra competitive and perhaps especially for guys who play a cerebral position such as QB ( or pitcher). On the other hand, there are athletes whose anger, at least reportedly, drives them to higher levels, and allowance probably should be made for that. (Michael Jordan would be Exhibit A -- his entire career was marked by insults, most contrived, that left him incredibly pissed off and lethal).

But Brady may be a special case, not so much for 2015 -- 2016, but through the rest of this decade. A ridiculous narrative is being stitched together that everything we have seen from Tom has been smoke and mirrors. Don't say that doesn't bother him; this is a guy who for a long time carried a huge chip on his shoulder about where he was drafted -- and may well carry it to this day. And where he was drafted, though obviously greatly mistaken in retrospect, was not absurd at the time.

So I can easily imagine him thinking, "fuck it ... My entire career is being challenged now ... I'm sticking with this another 5 years and will put up accomplishments that will be out of reach." That kind of sustained anger and sense of grievance will probably not matter much in any particular game. But it may matter a great deal for the offseason work, dedication and preparation required to excel when you're in your late 30s or early 40s and every season is guaranteed to be more challenging than the one that preceded it.