What will be the Celtics' record after the first 20 games?

[Imbricus]

I thought this might be a fun way to kick off the season. So everyone is clear, here's the schedule for the first 20:

12/23 vs. Bucks
12/25 vs. Nets
12/27 @ Pacers
12/29 @ Pacers
12/30 vs. Grizzlies
1/1 @ Pistons
1/3 @ Pistons
1/4 @ Raptors
1/6 @ Heat
1/8 vs. Wizards
1/10 vs. Heat
1/12 @ Bulls
1/13 vs. Magic
1/15 vs. Magic
1/17 vs. Knicks
1/20 @ Sixers
1/22 @ Sixers
1/24 vs. Cavaliers
1/25 @ Bulls
1/27 @ Spurs

That doesn't look too bad. My prediction though: The Celts spend some time stumbling around early in the season. I know the preseason shouldn't count for much, but they looked really disorganized in the first two games. This is the year when they needed a full preseason to work out the kinks, but they won't get it. I think they are the least experienced team in the NBA (by average years of experience of the players on the team), and it will show.

I say they're 9-11 after the first 20, with an upside of 10-10 or maybe 11-9. But then after that, things start to click.

 

[slamminsammya]

The lockout seasons showed serious declines in offensive basketball that are most reasonably attributed to the lack of practice. I think the degrees of youth and turnover that exist on this team will exacerbate this effect more than for other teams, so I expect stumbling that is beyond what you would get platonically by removing just Kemba and Thompson. Something around 500 sounds reasonable. But even if we agree to that now with clear heads, it won't stop us (myself included) from panicking after four games when they look totally disjointed.

 

[lovegtm]

They'll be about 11-9 just from playing good defense. The offense will be a mess and everyone will panic. There will be lots of "did we jump the gun on Tatum?" stories, especially in the national Twitter media.

Then they'll figure stuff out and get some internal improvement and be a lot like what we thought they'd be. Probably will feel a lot like a typical Utah Jazz season, just with more upside due to Tatum being a better #1, and eventually getting Kemba back.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

For fun...

12/23 vs. Bucks .45
12/25 vs. Nets .45
12/27 @ Pacers .6
12/29 @ Pacers .6
12/30 vs. Grizzlies .6
1/1 @ Pistons .7
1/3 @ Pistons .7
1/4 @ Raptors .45
1/6 @ Heat .4
1/8 vs. Wizards .8
1/10 vs. Heat .45
1/12 @ Bulls .7
1/13 vs. Magic .75
1/15 vs. Magic .75
1/17 vs. Knicks .85
1/20 @ Sixers .5
1/22 @ Sixers .5
1/24 vs. Cavaliers .85
1/25 @ Bulls .7
1/27 @ Spurs .7

= 12.5 wins, give or take?

What’s with everyone having to start their seasons against the Bucks and Nets, though? Can’t they let us ease into the season a bit?

 

[bankshot1]

I figure likely worse case is 8 wins, best case 13 wins, so middle it, 10-10.

The reaction to an an 0-4 start (I figure 1-3) should provide for a lot of board, heat, hyperbole and hand-wringing.

Let the fun begin.

 

[BaseballJones]

Agree with people who say they'll be around a .500 team, as they figure things out. It won't at all be cause for concern because they'll eventually get to where they need to be (unless one of the J's gets injured...then all bets are off). But there will be MUCH hand-wringing here and in the Boston sports media.

 

[mikeot]

Yep, hovering around .500 'till they figure things out.

 

[lexrageorge]

I'm thinking the 0.500 trend could easily last quite a bit longer than 20 games. The team has few avenues to improvement other than enduring some rough spots with the younglings.

 

[BigSoxFan]

This thread needs an overly-optimistic take based on nothing but wishcasting.

So...

14-6

The Jay’s snap out of it and start flexing on the league. Thompson proves to be useful. One of the rookies is an immediate contributor. Smarf regains his bubble form. Teague shoots 39% from 3. Time Lord transports himself to a time where he actually understands defensive rotations. Semi takes 3 total shots. Carsen does a good job of washing everyone’s uniforms.

 

[RG33]

12-8 with some bumpiness up front, followed by gathering themselves towards the back half and ending on a 7-2 run

 

[TripleOT]

14-6

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Around .500. 8-12 to 12-8.

 

[Schnerres]

13-7.

 

[The Social Chair]

9-11.

I think the "did we jump the gun" media narrative will be centered around Jaylen Brown. The team needs Brown to create his own offense when Tatum is on the bench. He hasn't shown he can do this yet.

The biggest issue will be the depth. The bench is very weak.

 

[Buck Showalter]

9-11

That's a tough beginning.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I've got 11-9 looking at that schedule, with the majority of the wins against the Pistons/Knicks/Bulls type dreck. I think they get smoked by teams like Milwaukee, Miami, and Philly early on because as many have said the offense is going to take some time to click, especially without Kemba and now that Hayward is gone. I do think they figure it out eventually but still think they don't have enough shooting to go all the way as the roster is currently constructed. Hopefully Nesmith turns into a sniper but he may be unplayable on the defensive end for a while.

 

[bigq]

10-10. This team is going to be frustratingly inconsistent and my guess is they will play to the level of their opponents. It seems likely that there will be odd line ups and inside of the first three games there will be multiple game thread calls for Stevens to be fired.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I don't follow the C's as closely as many of you do, but isn't this essentially the same team that sorta kicked ass last year (with and without Hayward)?

Are people down on them due to their poor showing in the two pre-season games? Recency bias?

I'll go with 14-6.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I don't follow the C's as closely as many of you do, but isn't this essentially the same team that sorta kicked ass last year (with and without Hayward)?

Are people down on them due to their poor showing in the two pre-season games? Recency bias?

I'll go with 14-6.

A bit of that, but mostly concerns about scoring with Kemba out indefinitely.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

A bit of that, but mostly concerns about scoring with Kemba out indefinitely.

Ah yeah, I was thinking he was coming back soon, but that's Thompson.

 

[benhogan]

I don't follow the C's as closely as many of you do, but isn't this essentially the same team that sorta kicked ass last year (with and without Hayward)?

Are people down on them due to their poor showing in the two pre-season games? Recency bias?

I'll go with 14-6.

they kicked ass with a healthy Kemba

I'll still stay optimistic and go 12-8 (based on Brad's coaching), with improvement depending on Kemba's health.

Danny adds useful vet(s) during the season

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

I don't follow the C's as closely as many of you do, but isn't this the same team that sorta kicked ass last year (with and without Hayward)?

Are people down on them due to their poor showing in the two pre-season games? Recency bias?

I'll go with 14-6.

It's in part because the other teams got better, and because this team got significantly worse by losing Kemba (for at least the first month or so) and Hayward. Javonte Green couldn't get a bench spot in the NBA for years and he's starting with us.

Size is a huge issue. Tacko aside, every player on the team is small for his position except (maybe)Thompson, Tatum, Smart and Brown.The team is tiny. Edit: thinking about it, Tatum is small for the 4 still.

Plus the bench is extremely thin. How many teams have an assistant coach that would be playing major minutes if he were a player instead? Turner's gotta be better than Edwards, Green and Semi right now, plus the rookies. A lot is riding on Romeo coming back soon and staying healthy (and being good).

I have them at 8-12.

 

[128]

My heart says 12-8, but my head says 8-12 is a distinct possibility, especially if any of the offensive go-to guys miss time.

 

[chilidawg]

I'm an optimist, but have a hard time seeing better than 12-8. I'll guess 11-9 is more realistic.

 

[oumbi]

20-0. What else could it be???

 

[luckiestman]

20-0. What else could it be???

I assume this is corrected for officiating. Celtics lost maybe 4 games in the Stephens’ regime when they have gotten a fair whistle.

 

[bsj]

15-5. This team is better than people think.

 

[Jimbodandy]

16-4

 

[nighthob]

My guess? Conservative 11-9 and optimistically 14-6.

 

[bankshot1]

The Celts, out of necessity will probably be giving a lot of minutes to puppies for the first month of the season. Now they might find Lassie or Rin-Tin-Tin, but most puppies piss on the rug for awhile. It could be messy until they get house broken. They also need Teague to be a decent Kemba fill-in to facilitate some ball movement and flow. I'm looking at the first month or so like an extended pre-season

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

For fun...

12/23 vs. Bucks .45
12/25 vs. Nets .45
12/27 @ Pacers .6
12/29 @ Pacers .6
12/30 vs. Grizzlies .6
1/1 @ Pistons .7
1/3 @ Pistons .7
1/4 @ Raptors .45
1/6 @ Heat .4
1/8 vs. Wizards .8
1/10 vs. Heat .45
1/12 @ Bulls .7
1/13 vs. Magic .75
1/15 vs. Magic .75
1/17 vs. Knicks .85
1/20 @ Sixers .5
1/22 @ Sixers .5
1/24 vs. Cavaliers .85
1/25 @ Bulls .7
1/27 @ Spurs .7

= 12.5 wins, give or take?

This looks a little bit like the Manila Metric.

Like everyone else, I'll be shocked if they aren't hovering near .500.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Sign me up for 12-8, they look like they are playing tight. Maybe Brad's role talk helps.l, but no more preseason to judge.

They are better in the from court with no notable losses from the bubble playoff crew (w/ gords and kemba on the shelf, or at least contributing like that, much of the playoffs). Wanna's d will be missed in the 3rd ball handler slot - but teague should more than make up with his offence...

The rooks are going to take some time. Net negative at the start. Maybe 12-8 is optimistic for the start. We'll see.

 

[Cellar-Door]

13-7

 

[NomarsFool]

It's going to be a rough start, for sure. It's pre-season, but I think many people - myself included - were a bit surprised at how bad they looked in the ridiculously small sample size of two games.

12/23 vs. Bucks - LOSS
12/25 vs. Nets - LOSS
12/27 @ Pacers - WIN
12/29 @ Pacers - LOSS
12/30 vs. Grizzlies - LOSS
1/1 @ Pistons - WIN
1/3 @ Pistons - WIN
1/4 @ Raptors - LOSS
1/6 @ Heat - LOSS
1/8 vs. Wizards - WIN
1/10 vs. Heat - LOSS
1/12 @ Bulls - WIN
1/13 vs. Magic - WIN
1/15 vs. Magic - LOSS
1/17 vs. Knicks - WIN
1/20 @ Sixers - WIN
1/22 @ Sixers - LOSS
1/24 vs. Cavaliers - WIN
1/25 @ Bulls - WIN
1/27 @ Spurs - LOSS

Looks like I'm at 10-10

 

[j-man]

I thought this might be a fun way to kick off the season. So everyone is clear, here's the schedule for the first 20:

12/23 vs. Bucks
12/25 vs. Nets
12/27 @ Pacers
12/29 @ Pacers
12/30 vs. Grizzlies
1/1 @ Pistons
1/3 @ Pistons
1/4 @ Raptors
1/6 @ Heat
1/8 vs. Wizards
1/10 vs. Heat
1/12 @ Bulls
1/13 vs. Magic
1/15 vs. Magic
1/17 vs. Knicks
1/20 @ Sixers
1/22 @ Sixers
1/24 vs. Cavaliers
1/25 @ Bulls
1/27 @ Spurs

That doesn't look too bad. My prediction though: The Celts spend some time stumbling around early in the season. I know the preseason shouldn't count for much, but they looked really disorganized in the first two games. This is the year when they needed a full preseason to work out the kinks, but they won't get it. I think they are the least experienced team in the NBA (by average years of experience of the players on the team), and it will show.

I say they're 9-11 after the first 20, with an upside of 10-10 or maybe 11-9. But then after that, things start to click.

vs Bucks W Vs nets L @ Pacers L @ Pacers W VS Griz L @ PISTONS W PISTONS W @ RAPTORS W @ HEAT L WIZ L HEAT W @ BULLS W MAGIC W'L KNICKS L SIXERS L'L CAVS W @ Bulls W @ Spurs L 10-10

 

[osori]

11-9, wins coming against Pacers, Magic, Pistons, Bulls, Knicks, Cavs, Spurs.

 

[Bleedred]

9-11

 

[luckiestman]

If Tatum is healthy 16-4.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

12-8 is my best guess

 

[ggreene]

I'm thinking they are going to be around .500 all year. Hopefully Danny can turn the TPE into something helpful and get on a run ahead of the playoffs.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

12-8. And getting healthier, I hope.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Halfway through and they’re 7-3. Based on schedule I had them at 5-5 by this point so my 11-9 prediction is likely going to be too pessimistic. Hopefully Rob Williams’ COVID case doesn’t spread because things seem like they’re starting to click. If the team can remain mostly healthy 13-7 or 14-6 through 20 is looking quite possible, which I think we’d all be pretty thrilled about.

 

[TripleOT]

I have 14-6. Impressive that of twenty games, they were out of only one, against the Nets. The other two, one possession losses, should have been wins.

OTOH, they have three buzzer beater wins in 10 games. The mist for any team in last year’s truncated season was three.

Hopefully with Kemba back they can win games more comfortably

 

[bigq]

With a four game winning streak and as winners of six of the last seven games I’m pleasantly surprised with this team. Prior to the start of the season I guessed they would be 10-10 after the first 20 games. It’s possible they go 3-7 over their next 10 games but unlikely.

Lots of fun positive developments so far including Jaylen’s outstanding play and growth, PP showing up early in meaningful minutes, Semi’s strong play, TL becoming a dependable 5, last night seeing Tacko getting real minutes and positively influence the game and Tatum being Tatum.

Four of the next seven games will be matchups with Orlando and Philadelphia and there is another game with Miami coming up as well. Should be good tests for Boston.

I’m so glad the NBA is back.

 

[luckiestman]

If Tatum is healthy 16-4.

There goes this prediction

 

[Jimbodandy]

There goes this prediction

Same.

 

[NomarsFool]

If they win a game in the next two weeks we will be lucky

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Hopefully Rob Williams’ COVID case doesn’t spread because things seem like they’re starting to click. If the team can remain mostly healthy

Kiss of death.

 

[nighthob]

I guess tonight we find out what happens to an NBA team when its three leading scorers are Marcus, 8mile, and Jeff Teague.

 

[The Social Chair]

9-11.

I think the "did we jump the gun" media narrative will be centered around Jaylen Brown. The team needs Brown to create his own offense when Tatum is on the bench. He hasn't shown he can do this yet.

The biggest issue will be the depth. The bench is very weak.

I win for worst take.