What's going to happen at #32?
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I'm guessing trade down. Hock seems likely to go prohibitively high, I'm not sure how much they'd pay to move up to get Fant, and just in general my sense of this draft is that the talent pool probably gets pretty flat after the first 15 or so guys so I can see BB deciding that the player they'd get at 32 wouldn't be any better than the player they could get at 40 or 50.
I'd be perfectly fine with a trade down if they're not getting Hock, Fant, or a surprise faller at another position like maybe Christian Wilkins. This team has a lot of needs going forward and is going to be getting a big overhaul over the next couple years. If they can trade 32 for a 2nd and a 3rd, then later trade that 3rd for a 2020 2nd or something like that, I'm on board.
I'd be perfectly fine with a trade down if they're not getting Hock, Fant, or a surprise faller at another position like maybe Christian Wilkins. This team has a lot of needs going forward and is going to be getting a big overhaul over the next couple years. If they can trade 32 for a 2nd and a 3rd, then later trade that 3rd for a 2020 2nd or something like that, I'm on board.
I do think they trade up this year based on their pick volume. I'm guessing Hockenson will be out of range, so my thinking is Clelin Ferrell in the early 20's. He checks all the Patriots boxes: clean player, productive at an elite program, good football character, true 3-down DE who plays the run and pass well. I think he "slides" into the early 20's because he's not the twitchy, explosive athlete that some of the other top prospects are. Also, Clemson DEs haven't transitioned to the NFL well recently; while every player is their own unique evaluation, teams do pay attention to those sorts of trends. I personally really like Ferrell, I think he's a plug-and-play DE who would fit in well with this front 7.
One thing to consider is that the Patriots spend less draft capital on edge rushers than any other team. Chandler Jones is the only top-50 edge they've taken; I think Jermaine Cunningham is the only second-rounder.
My guess is they stay put at #32 and take whatever defender is available, but they trade up in the second and maybe the third to secure their offensive targets (Miles Boykin? Jace Sternberger?).
Trade down from 32, adding a second + another pick this year or next. Then move up in the second round. If someone does not overpay for Rosen, maybe grab him with some of the extra consideration.
All bets are off if ... Haskins were to fall past early 20s. But this “falling” business is probably being manufactured by someone who dearly wants him to fall. Not likely to succeed.
All bets are off if ... Haskins were to fall past early 20s. But this “falling” business is probably being manufactured by someone who dearly wants him to fall. Not likely to succeed.
They trade down and draft G Chris Lindstrom. Because it would probably make everyones head explode.
I agree with this, but I think there's a little context to consider. While they haven't spent the draft capital (although you could make a case that Seymour and Warren as 1st round 5-techniques had edge responsibilities, albeit with different body types than what the Patriots' current scheme now calls for), they did expend heavy free agent cap money on Colvin and Adalius Thomas (with mixed results). They were pretty fortunate to hit on Vrabel and Nink in lower-tier free agency, but that's a hard way to make a living. I'd say DE is in the worst roster shape it's been in since the Chandler Jones draft, and with free agency dried up, they're going to have to either draft a guy or trade for a guy. It's hard to imagine BB rolling with this current group. (With the additional caveat that I don't see Bennett as a full-time DE/edge. He's probably a DE in the base heavier 4-3 look, but I view him as a DT in their "sub" 4-2-5 rush package, which they play most often.)
Wise
Bennett (hybrid DE/DT)
Simon (hybrid DE, off-the-ball LB)
Rivers
K. Davis
Kamalu (hybrid DE/DT)
Harris (who I personally like as a DPR candidate, but we'll see)
Hightower/KVN of course sometimes line up as rush ends in some packages (but are best used that way in limited packages)
I look at almost everyone you mention and I see positional versatility - Thomas, Ninkovich, and Vrabel were guys who had LB coverage responsibilities in addition to pass rush skills, and Seymour and Warren were guys who could kick inside and do DT things (which, as you note, describes Bennett too, and Trey Flowers for that matter). Maybe they think Ferrell could kick inside on passing downs or play in space a little bit, but from what I've read, he's more of a Jones who is a pure 4-3 edge. A guy like Tillery or Charles Omenihu would be more like the latter group; I've heard Jahlani Tavai listed among the former.
Obviously they did take Jones in the first (even trading up) so I wouldn't rule out a DE at 32, but I do view it as unlikely.
I don’t have a ton of first round grades this year but Lindrstrom is one of them. I think he is one of the safest prospects in the class and fits up with what the Patriots want to do. He is small 6036 but average weight and has over 34 inch arms. He’s played all over the line. While most draft gurus think he is an IOL I think he might be able to play OT. No qualms here if he is the pick especially if they can trade back and grab a 3 and/or a 4 and/or future 2/3. Thuney is up next year anyway.
I like Winovich as the guy who can drop back in coverage or rush the passer. He’s slightly undersized but athletically is a dynamo. No question with his effort either.
I like Omenihu as his counterpart. Solid edge setter against the run and can kick inside for passing downs. He’s not going to drop into coverage at 280ish but he has a different kind of versatility. Add Zach Allen and John Cominsky to this group as well.
Tillery is another guy I think could be a stud but wonder if he slips to 32. This year aside from Hock and maybe Fant depending on how they see his fit I don’t see a ton of guys worthy of 32 but they did take Michel at 31.
I like Omenihu as his counterpart. Solid edge setter against the run and can kick inside for passing downs. He’s not going to drop into coverage at 280ish but he has a different kind of versatility. Add Zach Allen and John Cominsky to this group as well.
Tillery is another guy I think could be a stud but wonder if he slips to 32. This year aside from Hock and maybe Fant depending on how they see his fit I don’t see a ton of guys worthy of 32 but they did take Michel at 31.
I actually really like Lindstrom too and wouldn't be sad with that pick. With all the talk about the "sexy" picks like offensive weapons and edge rushers, I feel like most of Pats nation would be up in arms if Bill picks a guard. It would be pretty amusing.
I like Winovich too, seems like a guy who could flourish here.
I voted trade up, but if they stick at 32, Dexter Lawrence wouldn't surprise me. As I undertand it, his ability as a run-stuffing DL is unquestioned but that skillset is undervalued in the league. Seems like the perfect Wilfork replacement that Brown never was. With Bennett on the line attacking the quarterback and Lawrence on the inside our defense might just be able to absorb the loss of Flowers.
I'll guess they stay at 32, and use some of the 2nd/3rd round picks to pick up some 2020 capital.
And at 32, the New England Patriots select Tillery or the best available Clemson front-seven player (Wilkins, Ferrell, Lawrence)
And at 32, the New England Patriots select Tillery or the best available Clemson front-seven player (Wilkins, Ferrell, Lawrence)
They're going to stay put and draft a running back, since that makes the least sense to normal football fans.
If you look at it through the lens of: If we don't take this guy here, a comparable player won't be available later on...
Tillery or Irv Smith make the most sense. There's a big drop-off after Tillery in terms of the bigger, 3-down DTs. Big drop-off after Irv Smith for TEs. I know that's one of the factors BB looks at when making picks, but certainly not the only factor.
I like Tillery, but he's not the cleanest prospect. He's got some football character questions; how important is football to him and he's had some on-field issues (multiple stomping incidents). He's also coming off a labrum surgery. That said, there's a lot of high-end traits there that are hard to ignore. Smith, I've talked a lot about before. Very good receiver, runs well, runs a full TE route tree, tough and finishes blocks. Sort of a young Delanie Walker type of player.
Tillery or Irv Smith make the most sense. There's a big drop-off after Tillery in terms of the bigger, 3-down DTs. Big drop-off after Irv Smith for TEs. I know that's one of the factors BB looks at when making picks, but certainly not the only factor.
I like Tillery, but he's not the cleanest prospect. He's got some football character questions; how important is football to him and he's had some on-field issues (multiple stomping incidents). He's also coming off a labrum surgery. That said, there's a lot of high-end traits there that are hard to ignore. Smith, I've talked a lot about before. Very good receiver, runs well, runs a full TE route tree, tough and finishes blocks. Sort of a young Delanie Walker type of player.
Pats send #32 & #64 to Seattle for #21 & #124.
Pats select Clelin Ferrell at #21. Physically, he seems to fit the Bill (pun intended), has a great pedigree, and won all sorts of team awards like “Solid Rock,” “Hustle,” & “Tiger Pride.” He should fit in the locker room, plus as a redshirt junior, he’s - year younger than many other prospects.
Also noticed Christian Wilkins won many of the same awards, but I think he’s gone in the mid-teens.
Pats select Clelin Ferrell at #21. Physically, he seems to fit the Bill (pun intended), has a great pedigree, and won all sorts of team awards like “Solid Rock,” “Hustle,” & “Tiger Pride.” He should fit in the locker room, plus as a redshirt junior, he’s - year younger than many other prospects.
Also noticed Christian Wilkins won many of the same awards, but I think he’s gone in the mid-teens.
I agree with this.
Oakland also has 24 and 27. Pats could offer 32 + 97/101 + 134 for 24 or simply 32 + 97/101 for 27
If Daniel Jones drops, might the Pats trade with the Giants?
Pats give: 32 + 134 + 205
Giants give: 37 + 95
Pats give: 32 + 134 + 205
Giants give: 37 + 95
If you're the Giants, do you want to make that move? After 32, it's ARI (Kyler, Rosen), IND (Luck), OAK (Carr, Haskins?), SF (Jimmy G). Unless they're worried about Gruden, they could stand pat and get him at 37.
It's not necessarily the teams behind the Pats though - what if someone else jumps in front of the Giants to get him?
Everything I read / heard said he was kind of a scheme-specific guy where the zone teams were way higher on him than the gap/power teams. Makes sense he went to Atlanta, which has been really zone-heavy the last few years.
It seems like, based on both the players going off the board and the relatively mild costs for trade-ups, teams thought the talent in this draft really flattened out fast.
