What's gone right?

nvalvo

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At 6-7, the team has failed to get the hot start we hoped for.

Betts is ice cold in the leadoff spot; the starting pitching has been up and down; the revamped bullpen has already taken four losses; Castillo and Swihart are in AAA; Smith and Rodriguez are on the DL; Kelly was bad, then hurt; Sandoval.

On the other hand, some things have gone emphatically right, or are showing promising signs. Ortiz has an OPS above 1.000. Shaw is thriving at third. Vazquez looks like he's come through his injury well. Hanley is playing a competent first base. Holt is hitting well. Bradley's top-line numbers don't look great, but his contact and plate discipline numbers show a hitter swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone, more in it, and making more contact across the board.

(Elsewhere in the organization, Moncada and Benintendi are OPSing above 1.000 in High-A. Espinoza has an 8.0 K/BB ratio in 15 IP.)

What else has gone right? Where are the signs of optimism? What are you keeping an eye on?
 

oumbi

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As the fifth starter, Wright has shown in two outings that he could become a regular, mid-rotation pitcher. But again, only two starts.
 

Rasputin

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At 6-7, the team has failed to get the hot start we hoped for.
I challenge the premise.

Sure, nobody hopes for a 6-7 record, but if you look at the schedule, 6-7 is not a bad record. The schedule so far has included 7 games against the reigning division winners, and one of the teams most picked to win it this year. The Sox have gone 4-3 in those games. There were two games against a good Cleveland team in Cleveland when they had a chance to line up their best pitchers. The Sox went 1-1. The remainder of the schedule is three games against a Baltimore team that was 6-0 when the series began, and a single game against the Rays where the starter left with an injury in the first inning. The Sox haven't faced any bad teams and hasn't been more than a game under .500.

What else has gone right? Where are the signs of optimism? What are you keeping an eye on?
What has gone right is David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Hanley Ramirez, Christian Vazquez, Dustin Pedroia, David Price, Steven Wright, and most of the bullpen.
 

pokey_reese

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Our 9-1-2 hitters have wRC+ of 63, 50, and 57, respectively. That's going to hurt the offense. Have Pedroia and Hanley really "gone right," though? They seem healthy, which you can say bodes well for the future, but over the small sample size that is this season, they have underperformed (Pedroia has a wRC+ of 82, Hanley is at 98, but for a slightly below-average defensive 1B, that's not going to be much above replacement level).

Price, Ortiz, Shaw, Wright, and Holt are the only real 'success' guys I can see so far, everyone else is 'pending.'
 

whatittakes

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what's more, let's make the point that a lot of our losses have been, if you'll pardon the cliche, the kind of losses that a good team loses. Losses against competitive teams yes, also losses that are usually either close, well fought games or games where the team fought back late to make it look close. We haven't really been seriously blown out yet unless you count that one game against Baltimore, and they fought back well in that defeat. The team has shown good heart and fight in many of its losses. And with the inclusion of Vazquez and Shaw and the redaction of Sandoval and Castillo, this team is actually probably stronger now than it was before the season started

In other words, yes the number on the standings hasn't looked good but there's a few good trends going on here and I think that the team isn't in nearly as rough shape as the standings suggest.
 

tims4wins

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On pace to score 735 runs which would have ranked 5th in MLB last year.

However, after scoring 28 runs in the first 4 games, they have only scored 31 in the last 9, which is dreadful.
 

Schadenfreude

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Begin think like Tom Werner: "It's Patriot's Day, David Ortiz' final Patriot's Day, and Farrell is sitting him? Did people come to Fenway to watch another game with the best team NOT on the field? Did they come to watch Clay effing Buccholz, Chris effing Young, Josh effing Rutledge, and Noe effing Ramirez? Who is the effing manager and why is he still employed by us?" End think like Tom Werner.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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- Hanley is moving well at 1B defensively, and is playing really hard on both sides;
- Shaw looks very good at 3B defensively, and consistently puts up solid at-bats;
- Wright has done nothing to disprove last year's emergence as a solid #4/5 starter;
- Owens is missing a ton of bats in AAA and not giving up solid contact; and,
- Moncada and Benintendi are tearing up Salem.
 

chrisfont9

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Buchholz and Porcello are the guys I'm keeping an eye on. With Kelly down and Wright already filling in for EdRo, the 2-3 guys need to log some innings, which thankfully they both did in their last turns. Given their histories, there is hope for a run of quality from the top 3/5ths of the rotation, which would return the bullpen to sanity in time for Smith to come back. It's so early, I just want to know that we have the pieces that we can eventually put in place, once the injury/ineffectiveness wave passes.
 

BaseballJones

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I challenge the premise.

Sure, nobody hopes for a 6-7 record, but if you look at the schedule, 6-7 is not a bad record. The schedule so far has included 7 games against the reigning division winners, and one of the teams most picked to win it this year. The Sox have gone 4-3 in those games. There were two games against a good Cleveland team in Cleveland when they had a chance to line up their best pitchers. The Sox went 1-1. The remainder of the schedule is three games against a Baltimore team that was 6-0 when the series began, and a single game against the Rays where the starter left with an injury in the first inning. The Sox haven't faced any bad teams and hasn't been more than a game under .500.



What has gone right is David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Hanley Ramirez, Christian Vazquez, Dustin Pedroia, David Price, Steven Wright, and most of the bullpen.
Every team - even the very best teams - will go through 2-week stretches where they basically play around .500 ball, or even a little under. If it happens right away, it's panic time.

There's a lot to like so far, IMO. There's a lot NOT to like as well. It's early.
 

KillerBs

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That's right, the recent good starts of Buchholz and Porcello give one reason for optimism. Wright is verging on an exciting development. If you squint, you can see a rotation that could very well be good enough to get us there.
 

Sampo Gida

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Wright, Holt, Shaw, Vazquez. Yeah, Hanley has looked OK at 1B, but if he hits like James Loney thats not good. Ortiz has been good, when he plays, which is not everyday now (once a week he gets rested it seems).

Price and Kimbrel look good, as expected, although both have had shaky outings which they are prone to do in April.

Koji got abused by Farrell (8 appearances in 12 games) as did Kelly (115 pitches in 5 IP in his 2nd start), and what they deliver going forward is now questionable.

E-Rod and Carson coming back will be good, but only if they are healthy

Team looks to be lacking power at the moment. I don't want to think what its going to look like next year w/o Papi unless they sign Bautista or Encarnacion.

Don't like any batting order where a pitcher is not forced to face Papi in the 1st inning every time. Too many cold bats or non power threats in the top 3 of the batting order, thats not good. Shuffle the batting order jack.
 

Rasputin

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Our 9-1-2 hitters have wRC+ of 63, 50, and 57, respectively. That's going to hurt the offense. Have Pedroia and Hanley really "gone right," though? They seem healthy, which you can say bodes well for the future, but over the small sample size that is this season, they have underperformed (Pedroia has a wRC+ of 82, Hanley is at 98, but for a slightly below-average defensive 1B, that's not going to be much above replacement level).

Price, Ortiz, Shaw, Wright, and Holt are the only real 'success' guys I can see so far, everyone else is 'pending.'
There's no way to not have a small sample size after thirteen games. The guys who aren't performing are one or two good games away from having respectable numbers. There's just not much you can take from thirteen games worth of data. But:

David Ortiz looks healthy and productive.

Hanley Ramirez looks to be exceeding almost everyone's expectations in regards to first base defense, and if his offensive results haven't quite been as impressive as we'd like, he looks like he's doing all the things that he needs to do to have a productive offensive season. There's no indication that the shoulder thing has carried over to this season.

Dustin Pedroia looks like he has the healthiest hands he's had in three or four years.

Jackie Bradley doesn't look completely lost.

what's more, let's make the point that a lot of our losses have been, if you'll pardon the cliche, the kind of losses that a good team loses.

In other words, yes the number on the standings hasn't looked good but there's a few good trends going on here and I think that the team isn't in nearly as rough shape as the standings suggest.
Yes, this. In addition, if Carson Smith had been healthy from the get go, it's entirely possible our bullpen has one or two losses instead of four. That's not to say it's gone right, but an indication that things aren't as bad as they may look.

Begin think like Tom Werner: "It's Patriot's Day, David Ortiz' final Patriot's Day, and Farrell is sitting him? Did people come to Fenway to watch another game with the best team NOT on the field? Did they come to watch Clay effing Buccholz, Chris effing Young, Josh effing Rutledge, and Noe effing Ramirez? Who is the effing manager and why is he still employed by us?" End think like Tom Werner.
Why the hell would any of us want to think like Tom Werner?

Every team - even the very best teams - will go through 2-week stretches where they basically play around .500 ball, or even a little under. If it happens right away, it's panic time.

There's a lot to like so far, IMO. There's a lot NOT to like as well. It's early.
I must be misunderstanding. Every team--even the very best teams--will go through month long stretches where they basically play around .500 or a little under and you should no more panic because it happens in April than you should if it happens in July.

There are plenty of things that have gone wrong. Carson Smith's injury has probably already cost the team a win or two. Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't pitched yet. The entire rotation save Steven Wright has had at least one stinker of an outing, putting more strain on the bullpen than is preferable and contributing directly to four bullpen losses.

On the other hand, the things that have gone wrong don't look like they're structural problems so much as they are the kind of shit every team has to deal with every year. Everyone in the rotation save Joe Kelly has had at least one really good outing and there's no particular reason to believe the bad outing is more predictive than the good one. The sixth starter has performed well. The only members of the bullpen who haven't performed well overall are the ones that wouldn't have been there if Carson Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez hadn't been injured.

I think the goals for the rest of the month are clear.

Get Carson Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez healthy and on the 25 man roster.
Get Mookie Betts on track.
Finish the month (say through the Yankees series that ends on May 1) at 13-12 or better.

Winning two from Tampa, one in Houston, three v Atlanta, and two from the Yankees would put us at 14-11 and probably no more than 3 games back. That's not running away with the division, but it's certainly weathering the early storm and positioning the team for a competitive season.
 

Pilgrim

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Heres some optimism before tonights game. Hopefully he doesn't make me look dumb.

Rick Porcello since coming off the DL last year:
 

nvalvo

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Porcello's an interesting case. I'm sitting in front of the middle innings of his so-far scoreless start against Tampa, and he looks very, very sharp. Dotting the edges of the zone with pitches that move in different ways. It's beautiful to watch.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Rick Porcello and the pen. Realistically that pen had done wonders if you take into consideration that Carson Smith hasn't even thrown a pitch. Porcello has been really good so far. Not sure how that works...
 

Pilgrim

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Heres another one- JBJ has cut his K rate down to 17% and is hitting the ball significantly harder than last year. (is there a good place to find exit velocity stats?)

 

pokey_reese

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Porcello has struck out 24 batters and walked 3 in 19 1/3 innings.
Was just coming to post something like this. He has an insane line, with a FIP of almost 6, but an xFIP of 2.83, driven by a crazy high HR/FB rate (was 40% before tonight, and he did give up another dinger). If he can keep the long balls under control maybe he will have the kind of season Ben dreamed of. Limiting the walks will at least keep the HRs from doing too much damage.
 

rotundlio

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Well, in aggregate—

We're the seventh-most patient team, swinging at 26% of balls. Our contact rate is sixth! We're eighth-best in the league (that's MLB) at avoiding "soft" contact, middle of the road in hard-hit but we'll come around, right?

Our fielding ranks 7th according to this catch-all thing. This is despite implausible negative contribution from JB the J, who is making a lot more contact, whose average flyball distance last year was in the upper quartile... and who has been stinging it, am I correct? It also underestimates the value of one Christian Vazquez, our Michael Jordan.

Pitching... we strike out more hitters than 28 teams, but we're seventh among them in walk rate. With Joe Kelly out I expect to see that plummet. Whiff rate is third, first-pitch strike percentage seventh despite Joe Kelly (seriously amazed he didn't butcher that; we should be first). Dumb team induces the second-fewest grounders in a flyball bouncy castle. Losers. We give up a lot of rockets as well, not naming names. But the rotation have good to plusgood peripherals and some enviable minor league ballast. We're sixth in SIERA, dudes.

Mookie Betts is a golden god who slept in. He's ready to catalyze, galvanize, pulverize the inner half. I love that man. David Ortiz looks young again. Sandoval's in for maintenance but Travis Shaw is Batman and we'll win playoff games by the sixth freaking inning if everyone could just stay healthy. (Carson Smith sports a career SIERA of two point zero zero.) Andrew Benintendi and especially Yoan "The Body" Moncada could conceivably come knocking for playoff roster—at any rate, they're playing like Hall of Fame locks. It's early yet, but I'm gonna keep watching.

We rank 21st in isolated power with a team wRC+ of only 99. Is there some aging slugger or malcontent shortstop we can acquire to put out in left? Brock Holt is a bench player.
 
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Drek717

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What's gone right? Honestly just about everything other than three starters (Rodriguez' injury, Buc being Buc, and Kelly being Kelly) and the bullpen getting bit with some bad luck/overuse on the back end.

For pitching: Porcello and Wright are looking like very acceptable back half of the rotation pieces, David Price is David Price, Taz looks to have righted the ship, and the mid-tier bullpen options/specialists are looking surprisingly good. Noe and Barnes actually look competitive as opposed to how they looked in mid-relief at times last year, Hembree gave a heroic effort in relief of Kelly, Ross is looking way better than I ever thought he could, Koji has been great when used with less regularity, and Kimbrel starting a clean inning is basically white hot fire burning down hitters.

For position players: JBJ looks legit as fuck. Pedey looks like he's actually healthy and feeling good for the first time in a long time. Xander is flashing the pull power he had in the minors and his defense at this point is no longer a concern. Papi looks like the same Papi of the last several years. Hanley and Shaw have taken the two biggest positional black holes from 2015 and turned them into strengths, at the same time opening up the third worst hole in LF for Holt to contribute. Christian Vazquez doesn't look worse for the year off defensively and in the early going has shown a nice bit of pop at the plate with clearly more confidence to try and turn on pitches as opposed to 2014 when he just looked to pop everything the opposite way. Betts is still Betts, just a bit streaky in the early going.

If this club stays moderately healthy the bullpen will level out, Rodriguez will reinforce the rotation, and the star bats will begin to align for one hell of a run to send Ortiz off in style. At least that is my opinion.
 

geoduck no quahog

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The Red Sox are scoring without relying on home runs. They're running into runs.

I don't understand this early stat, maybe it's relevant: The Red Sox are 7th in the League in Pitches/Plate Appearance, but handily beat the teams ahead of them in runs/game.

In order: Team - Runs/Game - Pitches/Plate Appearance

Blue Jays - 3.96 - 4.06
Orioles - 4.26 - 3.97
Indians - 4.47 - 3.96
Tigers - 4.45 - 3.95
Yankees - 3.60 - 3.94
White Sox - 3.73 - 3.93
Red Sox - 5.29 - 3.92

Thing is, one extremely good (or bad) game this early in the season can skew things ridiculously, as can quality of opponent. Still, seeing a patient Blue Jays team scoring many fewer runs than the Red Sox despite abusing pitchers seems to me to bode well.

Their lineup seems long. It's conceivable that only the #8 catcher provides a substantial breather to an opponent. They don't rely wholly on the top half of the order.

Ortiz appears ageless. Mookie is the real thing, as is Bogaerts. Ramirez will phase in when one of the other hitters phases out.

They're 3rd in the League in fielding, behind Baltimore and KC. Again, too early - but Ramirez, Shaw and Bogaerts look much better than predicted.

The pen will be remarkable when the back end is Tazawa/Carson, Uehara and Kimbrel. Apparently that's a pen with 3 legitimate closers (maybe 4).

Starters. Let's wait a few more starts before coming to any conclusions, particularly more starts against good hitting teams (like the Blue Jays or Orioles).

They have a better record on the road than at Fenway. They're young. They're aggressive. They manufacture runs. They're (knock on wood) healthy.

Things seem sustainable.

They are the anti-Yankees.
 

Rasputin

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Pedroia looks like he's back to his old self.

Hanley Ramirez is heating up just in time to face the Yankees.

Buchholz, despite pitching poorly, pitched into the seventh so the bullpen is just fine heading into the Yankees series.

Take two of three from the Yankees and we'll have weathered the first craptacular month in great shape to beat the hell out of teams that aren't in the AL East.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interesting that MFYs are undefeated when they score four or more runs. However, they've only done it 5 times.

OTOH, the Red Sox are leading the AL in that category, having done it 16 times after tonight (in 24 games). Scoring 4 or more runs 2/3rds of the time is going to lead to a great season.

The Red Sox are one of four teams that have not committed multiple errors in a game yet this season.

http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/preview.asp?g=360430102
 

Stitch01

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Porcello is far and away the biggest positive to me so far. Sub 3 xFIP since returning from the DL last August. Maybe someone better with fan graphs than me can throw cold water on it, but Price/Porcello/ERod might be a fine front three and rotation was clearly the biggest worry heading into the season.
 

pantsparty

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Rasputin

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Porcello is far and away the biggest positive to me so far. Sub 3 xFIP since returning from the DL last August. Maybe someone better with fan graphs than me can throw cold water on it, but Price/Porcello/ERod might be a fine front three and rotation was clearly the biggest worry heading into the season.
While we sit and wait for Rodriguez, Wright is doing to pretty damn impressive impression of a staff ace.

Alex Speier had a thing in his email newsletter to the point that Buchholz has had a crappy Aprils that led into some perfectly fine Mays, Junes, and Julys.

I've got a good feeling about this..
 

EllisTheRimMan

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In a word, Papi. This post could go into a number of threads, including Otiz'z retirement,Your Red Sox blind spot or the Farrell on the hot seat one.

I have a feeling that is more of a belief really, that if the rest of the players can just be competent, Papi will singlehandedly put the Sox on his back and carry them to a championship for his final act of Papiness (new word for awesomeness). Hell, I can envision a scenario where Papi is named player coach, JF is canned and Lovullo handles the nuts and bolts. The large father is larger than life and in 2013 he gave two inspirational speeches, at least that we know about. One was after the bombing where he defiantly declared that this is "our FOCKING city". Then there was his dugout rally cry v Detroit. This man, this player has super human powers. He is the straw that stirs the Red Sox drink. Reggie Jackson should be in awe of David Ortiz. As if it has been any other way since 2003.

Every time he comes to bat, it's an event. What's gone right and what gives me irrational optimism, is that he has decided to go out in style. Given that he seems to be able to will outcomes makes his hot start in his final season a positive harbinger of one last act of Papiness.

BTW what do David Ortiz, Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth have in common?

Only players in MLB history to have 500+ HRs and 3+ World Series Championships. It's telling that 3/4 are MFYs. (And yes I know RJ won with OAK).
 

Mugsy's Jock

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The large father is larger than life and in 2013 he gave two inspirational speeches, at least that we know about. One was after the bombing where he defiantly declared that this is "our FOCKING city". Then there was his dugout rally cry v Detroit. This man, this player has super human powers.
Not to be "that guy" but the dugout meeting was in St. Louis, Game 4.

http://nesn.com/2013/11/david-ortiz-micd-up-during-game-4-dugout-speech-tells-team-we-dont-get-here-everyday-lets-relax-and-play-video/

Against Detroit he merely hit a season-altering grand slam.

The point totally stands, regardless.
 

Rasputin

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In a word, Papi. This post could go into a number of threads, including Otiz'z retirement,Your Red Sox blind spot or the Farrell on the hot seat one.

I have a feeling that is more of a belief really, that if the rest of the players can just be competent, Papi will singlehandedly put the Sox on his back and carry them to a championship for his final act of Papiness (new word for awesomeness). Hell, I can envision a scenario where Papi is named player coach, JF is canned and Lovullo handles the nuts and bolts. The large father is larger than life and in 2013 he gave two inspirational speeches, at least that we know about. One was after the bombing where he defiantly declared that this is "our FOCKING city". Then there was his dugout rally cry v Detroit. This man, this player has super human powers. He is the straw that stirs the Red Sox drink. Reggie Jackson should be in awe of David Ortiz. As if it has been any other way since 2003.

Every time he comes to bat, it's an event. What's gone right and what gives me irrational optimism, is that he has decided to go out in style. Given that he seems to be able to will outcomes makes his hot start in his final season a positive harbinger of one last act of Papiness.

BTW what do David Ortiz, Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth have in common?

Only players in MLB history to have 500+ HRs and 3+ World Series Championships. It's telling that 3/4 are MFYs. (And yes I know RJ won with OAK).
When we win the world series this year, Babe Ruth and Papi will be the only ones with 500 and more than three and seven of those World Series victories will belong to the Red Sox.

Also, Dustin Pedroia will have three with the Sox and he aint done yet.
 

PapaSox

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I'm coming into to this a tad late but I thought it worth noting that many were calling for Farrell's head when we were 6-7. I wonder now that we have gone 8-3 since and tapping on Baltimore's shoulder what would be the judgement. Other than a few guys struggling to get their game together and some injuries the team is doing well. There are areas of concern but they seem to be working their/there way out. All-in-all it looks as if we had a good April.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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.....and just like that JBJ is over an .800 OPS
I think he's going to be a streaky frustrating hitter all season- with stretches like he's had the past week and stretches like the first two weeks- levelling out around a .750-.775 OPS which makes him tremendously valuable and our CF'er for the future. Definitely having some luck with the BABiP Gods though.....
 

Devizier

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The only thing that is significantly worrying me right now is the loss of Hanley's power. Considering that there's a reasonable explanation (right shoulder injury) for a power drain, I'm a little more attuned to his lack of XBH at this stage of the season than otherwise. But given the question marks the Sox entered the season with, I can't complain.
 

chilidawg

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They're first in the league in doubles and triples, by a wide margin. They're last in home runs. They're first in stolen bases and stolen base percentage. Have they become the Kansas City Royals?

Regardless, I'm enjoying this years team so far.
 

simplicio

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Yeah, I'm enjoying X and Mookie competing for steals- I think the aggressive baserunning is really working for them.
 

YTF

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It's still early days, but I can't recall The Sox using the entire field the way they have been so far this year. They are patient, extending at bats and to use the old cliché, they are taking what the pitcher gives them. Offensively, this is an exciting team to watch and the lack of home runs is barely noticeable to me because of it. They truly are doing a lot of things right so far, but the way the are spraying the ball all over the park and going opposite field at opportune times makes for enjoyable viewing.
 

grimshaw

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They weathered one of the two roughest parts of the schedule relatively injury free. The pen is completely rested and there is an off day tomorrow before facing the top team in the AL.
 

phenweigh

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The Sox are extending their lead for runs scored in the AL. What I find strange is that they are tied for fourth in run scored in MLB. No only does the NL have the top three scoring teams, they have six of the top seven. Is something going on besides the small sample of one month of games? Has pitching in the NL gone so far south that many team's offenses are overcoming bad hitting pitchers?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's still early days, but I can't recall The Sox using the entire field the way they have been so far this year. They are patient, extending at bats and to use the old cliché, they are taking what the pitcher gives them. Offensively, this is an exciting team to watch and the lack of home runs is barely noticeable to me because of it. They truly are doing a lot of things right so far, but the way the are spraying the ball all over the park and going opposite field at opportune times makes for enjoyable viewing.
This seems like the team that was being planned almost when Ben took over- planning for the drop off in power across the league with an emphasis on defense and generating runs. HRs are down since their comical peak 95'-2005' but I don't think HR power has dropped off as much as was predicted.
That said, I did feel that Ben had a good plan for that but the unexpected success of the '13 team derailed his long term goals with a hoped for follow up success with the pattern he established then
 

chrisfont9

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I'm coming into to this a tad late but I thought it worth noting that many were calling for Farrell's head when we were 6-7. I wonder now that we have gone 8-3 since and tapping on Baltimore's shoulder what would be the judgement. Other than a few guys struggling to get their game together and some injuries the team is doing well. There are areas of concern but they seem to be working their/there way out. All-in-all it looks as if we had a good April.
That struck me as a grotesque overreaction by the media based on a bad week or so, and now with another small sample size it's something people will begin to laugh at. Personally I find it a little hard to believe that the Sox would judge a time-tested manager on less than a third of the season, when he's dealing with a volatile rotation, an injury-weakened and overworked bullpen, and a lot of young players. Only if Dombrowski hadn't wanted Farrell around to begin with would you see him scapegoated prematurely, but even there they had a chance to just stay with Lovullo and didn't. So yeah, I didn't buy the notion that his job was *actually* on the line.
 

Adrian's Dome

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That struck me as a grotesque overreaction by the media based on a bad week or so, and now with another small sample size it's something people will begin to laugh at. Personally I find it a little hard to believe that the Sox would judge a time-tested manager on less than a third of the season, when he's dealing with a volatile rotation, an injury-weakened and overworked bullpen, and a lot of young players. Only if Dombrowski hadn't wanted Farrell around to begin with would you see him scapegoated prematurely, but even there they had a chance to just stay with Lovullo and didn't. So yeah, I didn't buy the notion that his job was *actually* on the line.
The reason they didn't fire Farrell was his cancer diagnosis, nobody in the camp of wanting a change was overreacting to the slow start, and nobody in his pro camp should be bringing up a small sample of games against otherwise horrible teams. People who want a change want it because of his bad track record and questionable in-game decision-making over a 5-year sample, people who don't tend to shrug off the belief that the manager has an effect on what happens on the field.

There's a line in the sand, but this team to this point has hardly had a "volatile" rotation, more like a struggling Buchholz. The bullpen is one of the most talented and deep in the majors and is hardly "injury-weakened" just because they lost one player for a few weeks, and the young players are a big reason why the team is what it is. Let's not overreach.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
People who want a change want it because of his bad track record and questionable in-game decision-making over a 5-year sample, people who don't tend to shrug off the belief that the manager has an effect on what happens on the field.
The implication here, that the difference between the fire-Farrell and keep-Farrell crowds is that one group thinks managers matter and the other does not, is at best a gross oversimplification, at worst outright nonsense. There are certainly some on the keep-Farrell side who think the importance of managers, and particularly the importance of in-game decision-making by managers, has been exaggerated. There are some who think Farrell's in-game incompetence has been exaggerated. There are some who think his skills at managing people have been severely underrated. And there are some who think a combination of these things. There is probably almost nobody whose position is, "yeah, he's an egregiously shitty manager, but who cares? Managers have no effect on winning or losing." Yet this is your implication.
 

Adrian's Dome

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The implication here, that the difference between the fire-Farrell and keep-Farrell crowds is that one group thinks managers matter and the other does not, is at best a gross oversimplification, at worst outright nonsense. There are certainly some on the keep-Farrell side who think the importance of managers, and particularly the importance of in-game decision-making by managers, has been exaggerated. There are some who think Farrell's in-game incompetence has been exaggerated. There are some who think his skills at managing people have been severely underrated. And there are some who think a combination of these things. There is probably almost nobody whose position is, "yeah, he's an egregiously shitty manager, but who cares? Managers have no effect on winning or losing." Yet this is your implication.
Well, I certainly haven't seen any in the pro-Farrell camp actually give some concrete reasons behind being in said pro camp other than "a change probably won't make things better, so what's the point?"

But by all means, carry on.
 

jasail

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Apr 23, 2010
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What has gone right was an interesting question to pose at the start of the season, but as May starts I feel a lot more has gone right than has gone wrong. For me, a good deal has gone right at this point. What has gone badly is Buchholz performance (although not unexpected), inconsistency with Price, injury to key members of the pitching staff (Smith and ERod), slowish start from Mookie, some poor bullpen outings, and the sometimes baffling use of Chris Young.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
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Back to the Home Run thing. Following Oriole box scores, it feels that they're always hitting the long ball, which reminds me of some of the powerful but losing Red Sox teams of the past. So I thought I'd check things out 1 month into the season. I couldn't find a ready-made statistic, so I went through all the game logs to come up with the following (I may do it again for the Yankees and Blue Jays).

Baltimore
Home Runs: 34
Runs Scored Off Home Runs: 56
Total Runs Scored: 108
Percent from HR: 52%

Red Sox
Home Runs: 19
Runs Scored Off Home Runs: 38
Total Runs Scored: 126
Percent from HR: 30%

Going through each Baltimore game log, it's really amazing how often they hit home runs...almost every game. Bottom line, however, is that through yesterday, the highest scoring team in the league is only relying on the home run for 30% of its runs. Obviously no one turns down high home run rates, but it's encouraging to acknowledge that this team will get remarkably better when/if the balls start flying...but they won't be relying on that...unlike the Orioles who only scored 52 of 108 runs without the long ball (Red Sox 88 of 126).

Now, Baltimore would have scored runs if only half of those homers were, say, doubles or singles - so you can't discount the 108 runs scored - and they shouldn't be penalized for that. 19 of Baltimore's 34 home runs were, however, solo shots - 55%. (6 of Boston's 32%)

It may be interesting to compare those other two teams. Live by the long ball...die by the long ball.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
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Well, I certainly haven't seen any in the pro-Farrell camp actually give some concrete reasons behind being in said pro camp other than "a change probably won't make things better, so what's the point?"

But by all means, carry on.
The team is playing hard.
The team is playing smart.
He isn't making insane lineup decisions.
He has the Boston Red Sox being the most appropriately aggressive baserunning team this town has ever seen.
He manages the media well.
He doesn't let players rot on the bench.