Anecdotally, both from my own observations and Remy's constant gushing, BOS is running the bases masterfully. Their situational decision making as well as just taking the extra base and not getting thrown out has been, collectively, near perfect. Wendell Kim weeps somewhere. That alone is worth it to me.
What's gone right?
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
Would an outfield shift have an effect on BABiP if/when he goes opposite field though? Correction down from .529, yeah sure... but if the outfield is shifting and he can go opposite, I could see that still hanging out around .400
Hey, he has to be good at something. It's reverse Peter Principle: he's been demoted to his level of competence.
It occurs to me that what's gone right can be summed up in the fact that the thread title no longer makes any sense.
Amaro was in Philly when Davy Lopes had that team running the bases better than any I'd ever seen.
Maybe that's because I'd usually been watching the Red Sox.
But I digress. In 2009 Utley went 23-0 in SB attempts, Werth went 20-3. Hell, Howard swiped 8 to 1 CS. The final tally was 119 SB, 28 CS. And 2008 was even better, with Rollins leading the team with a crazy 47-3 to reach 136-25. But neither of those years were as good as 2007, when Rollins, Victorino, and Bourne led the team to a 138-19 total.
Lopes' tenure as 1B coach saw Utley (+29.9), Rollins (+30.1), Victorino (+25.2), and Werth (+18.6) regularly among the baserunning leaders.
So yeah, I would not be at all surprised if Amaro has been a huge net positive to the Sox baserunning.
Contextually, the name is somewhat ironic. Nevertheless, this is a fun team to watch right now. The only thing that hasn't been right is the back-end starting pitching.
Fortunately on that front, Eduardo Rodriguez thinks he may have fixed his velocity problem (I apologize if this has been linked before):
It might be interesting to check out his performance tomorrow.
EDIT: I'm happy so far with 1-3 starters; I think Price will be fine, regardless of his drop in velocity. Buchholz is ok for the fifth starter, but nothing more.
We caught Oakland at just the right time and place, and tonight we caught Houston at just the right time and place. They played 16 innings last night then had to travel to Boston, so Keuchel basically had to pitch 6 innings no matter what.
It's nice to catch breaks, and even nicer to take full advantage of them.
It's nice to catch breaks, and even nicer to take full advantage of them.
In the American League, the Red Sox have 4 of the top 10, and 6 of the top 20 players for batting average...
...6 of the top 30 in SLG...
...6 of the top 31 (dammit, Dustin) in OBP...
... 6 of the top 24 in OPS...
...7 of the top 30 in doubles, including 3 of the top 5...
...8 of the top 30 (!!) in RBI...
...7 of the top 21 in hits...
...and 7 of the top 20 in runs...
JBJ, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Shaw, and Hanley are among the league leaders in almost every major offensive category, with Mookie and Holt also appearing very frequently.
...6 of the top 30 in SLG...
...6 of the top 31 (dammit, Dustin) in OBP...
... 6 of the top 24 in OPS...
...7 of the top 30 in doubles, including 3 of the top 5...
...8 of the top 30 (!!) in RBI...
...7 of the top 21 in hits...
...and 7 of the top 20 in runs...
JBJ, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Shaw, and Hanley are among the league leaders in almost every major offensive category, with Mookie and Holt also appearing very frequently.
They have gone from horrible to great. I was actually thinking about the difference this week and was wondering if Amaro has been an influence. Farrell's teams here and in Toronto have been plain bad base runners.
Thanks for that post. Good stuff.
Anderson Espinoza strikes out hitters at almost the same rate as Price, nearly one in three. He's the youngest player in the South Atlantic League, rewarded the largest signing bonus in the history of Venezuela. The Sally's average hitter is four developmental years his senior, but he Ked 11 of them in 5 innings last week anyway like some bizarro Henry Owens. He runs it up to 99 with audacious sink, the author of a 2.45 FIP without a wisp of facial hair. If you haven't read the beautiful things he's spouted off to the press, I encourage you to do so. Apparently his heart is set on reaching the Major Leagues as a teenager. May he spell the end of Buchholz. He and I expect a long and colorful career.
I hope Benintendi and Moncada go right to Boston. They're high-pedigree players both, one a record breaking bonus baby built like a warship, the other College Player of the Year and a steal at number seven. Who here opposed Xander Bogaerts, then 20, a spring lamb, playing in the World Series? It was that or a blind wombat, I grant you, but still. These guys deserve the same chance to draw gutsy walks.
To this point: Ortiz is really, extremely extroverted. He treats opposing teams' players like closest kin. There's a real good chance of us introducing a pair of trumped up, wet behind the ears wunderkids to this team for one ultimate playoff run, possibly in the filling out of a stacked offense.... Rejubilated Papi is fearsome Papi, and Fenway Pahk will really let him hear it this go round. Our standout competitor in the NL is cursed and their president's a gorilla.
The Hanley Ramírez situation has "gone right." Still not a credit to team OPS, the poor thing, but he's really playing quality baseball and I think he's been the most likable Red Sox so far. He's hitting the ball "hard as fuck," you might describe, with upper crust mean flyball distances and indeed, Remy, exit velocities. That Asian fellow with the hair informed me Han-Ram cracked the center field wall this morning with a line drive during batting practice. (I, for one, remember that happening before. I think maybe Youk did it?) The home run he hit was just a masterstroke of impeccable beauty.
What I hope will continue going right in the future: everyone please stay healthy. Cryogenically freeze Koji if we crack open a division lead, really leverage those innings.
It interests me that Price has been given so much rope at times this season. He's had outings of 114 and now 113 pitches, dominating Atlanta and then last night, accumulating Ks when he really needn't have been in there. It seems the Red Sox are willing to bet on his slate of health—reassuring, I suppose, in exchange for almost a quarter billion dollars. That or Price calls the shots.
What hasn't gone right? I bit my tongue once cheering a Travis Shoore home run. He only went 2-for-4 that game.
I hope Benintendi and Moncada go right to Boston. They're high-pedigree players both, one a record breaking bonus baby built like a warship, the other College Player of the Year and a steal at number seven. Who here opposed Xander Bogaerts, then 20, a spring lamb, playing in the World Series? It was that or a blind wombat, I grant you, but still. These guys deserve the same chance to draw gutsy walks.
To this point: Ortiz is really, extremely extroverted. He treats opposing teams' players like closest kin. There's a real good chance of us introducing a pair of trumped up, wet behind the ears wunderkids to this team for one ultimate playoff run, possibly in the filling out of a stacked offense.... Rejubilated Papi is fearsome Papi, and Fenway Pahk will really let him hear it this go round. Our standout competitor in the NL is cursed and their president's a gorilla.
The Hanley Ramírez situation has "gone right." Still not a credit to team OPS, the poor thing, but he's really playing quality baseball and I think he's been the most likable Red Sox so far. He's hitting the ball "hard as fuck," you might describe, with upper crust mean flyball distances and indeed, Remy, exit velocities. That Asian fellow with the hair informed me Han-Ram cracked the center field wall this morning with a line drive during batting practice. (I, for one, remember that happening before. I think maybe Youk did it?) The home run he hit was just a masterstroke of impeccable beauty.
What I hope will continue going right in the future: everyone please stay healthy. Cryogenically freeze Koji if we crack open a division lead, really leverage those innings.
It interests me that Price has been given so much rope at times this season. He's had outings of 114 and now 113 pitches, dominating Atlanta and then last night, accumulating Ks when he really needn't have been in there. It seems the Red Sox are willing to bet on his slate of health—reassuring, I suppose, in exchange for almost a quarter billion dollars. That or Price calls the shots.
What hasn't gone right? I bit my tongue once cheering a Travis Shoore home run. He only went 2-for-4 that game.
Baseball Think Factory - Firing on all cylinders: Hitting, Pitching, Defense & Baserunning.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/sox_therapy/discussion/in_praise_of_the_coaching_staff/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/sox_therapy/discussion/in_praise_of_the_coaching_staff/
He should probably have Pedroia at his next session just to make sure there are no other mechanical problems
Then again with the way things have gone, such a thread would be like the classic "what are some of your weaknesses?" job interview answers (hat tip to Michael Scott):
- I work too hard (we have to use the high-lev relievers in blowout wins just to get some work in)
- I care too much (our starting 3B is out for the season...thank Pedro)
- I'm too invested in my job (two of our very best players haven't even quite gotten rolling yet)
Well, the schedule, for one. The Sox are 13-4 against four of the worst teams in baseball (Oakland, Houston, Atlanta and, ahem, the NYY) and a still respectable 8-7 versus the better teams (Toronto, Chicago, Baltimore).
The reality is, the AL is really watered down (is there a lock 90-win team) and one reason why the Sox are the current Vegas favorite to win the AL Pennant. The three best teams in baseball are all in the NL (Cubs, Nats and Mets) and the Sox don't play any of them
The reality is, the AL is really watered down (is there a lock 90-win team) and one reason why the Sox are the current Vegas favorite to win the AL Pennant. The three best teams in baseball are all in the NL (Cubs, Nats and Mets) and the Sox don't play any of them
Hanigan has an OPS+ of 17.
That's near meaningless in 47 PA of course, but is the plan for Swihart to be back up at some point?
As long as Wright keeps putting up zeros, Hanigan will continue to take the beating of catching those knucklers. They're not bringing Swihart up to expose him (and us) to that.
Yeah, Hanigan's going to catch Wright for the foreseeable future, even if that plus off-line OF throws combine to age him in dog-years.
We'll basically only see Swihart in the bigs if Vazquez gets hurt, or if he's wearing another team's uniform.
Or
13-4 is 0.765 winning% while Oak/Hou/Atl/NYY are combined 50-87 or 0.635 losing%.
8-7 is 0.533 winning% while Bal/Tor/Chi are combined 62-42 or 0.404 losing%.
The team is doing great.
AL East could be the toughest division if the Jays offense gets going and the Orioles pitching holds up. The Yankees should be better than they have been too. Over the last 20 games which have put them above 500 and had them go 15-5 they played 4 against the Braves, 4 Astros, 6 Yankees (during their massive slump), 3 against the slumping A's, 3 against the CWS while catching the back end of their rotation, and 3 left against the Astros.
The team played great, and good teams beat up lesser teams, so they are good. The schedule is going to toughen up and then we can get a better look at how good they really are.
Why shouldn't Vaz catch Wright? He's a premier defensive player with great hands. Wouldn't that be idea for catching a knuckler?
Vaz has been pretty susceptible to passed balls while catching standard pitching; one of the things that makes him exceptional at framing is that he gets a really good read on the path of a pitch to catch balls toward the edge of his glove while keeping more of his hand over the plate. That won't work well with the unpredictable movement of a knuckler, and while I'm sure he's capable of changing his approach to catch one, why mess with a good thing when you have a good backup catcher who can do it instead?
I'm very sorry that you don't understand the difference. The difference is that good teams that are playing poorly aren't going to continue to play poorly forever. It means that there is a qualitative difference in the games played. When you're trying to figure out what the hell is going on with a team, and you look at a four game series against oh, I dunno, the Houston Astros, you should look at it differently than you should a four game series with the Atlanta Braves. There are several posts in this thread that implied that the games were the same and I felt the point needed to be made.
The New York Yankees and Houston Astros are 20th and 22nd in team ERA (against just to be clear). The Astros are 14th and the Yankees 26th in team OPS on the hitting side. You can make all the qualitative posts you want around here with your rose colored super lenses but quantitatively, your observation doesn't hold up. The Yankees are not good and, at best, Houston is a mediocre hitting team that sucks at pitching this year.
One of the things that has gone right is that the Red Sox have been able to play teams as bad as the Yankees and Astros.
I doubt we'd get anything interesting back, though. Baseballs are baseballs, no matter which team puts them in the bag.
IMO, the thing to do is let Rodriguez continue building leg strength in AAA, and Kelly continue building shoulder strength there, too. Just be patient, and give the MLB roster a chance to sort itself out while DDski keeps working the phones to see who might become available as an upgrade in June/July. I'm no big fan of O'Sullivan, but he too, should be given 1-2 more starts after today, assuming he's able to keep Houston's hits inside the park. At the very least, he proved capable of throwing strikes, and the Sox have continued their longstanding tradition of wearing gloves to help field batted balls hit by the other team.
Also, the Sox have pretty miraculously gone 9-6 in the 15 games thus far started by Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, and O'Sullivan. It's all thanks to the Sox offense, of course, since that group of starters has given up a repulsive 51 ER in 72 2/3 IP (6.32 ERA). But since Buchholz has thrown both of the 2 quality starts "achieved" so far by this group, let's not be too hasty to get rid of him. Something obviously better needs to be ready at hand.
The team W-L record is definitely something that's gone right, since those games are already in the books. And, at least in terms of Rodriguez (who appears to be getting individual tutoring from Pedro), there's cavalry on the horizon. May be a little further off than is readily comfortable, but the offense has ensured the Sox have time to stall for reinforcements to arrive.
To update my post from 2 weeks ago (blue=upgrades; red = downgrades):
Beyond expectations
1. Porcello
2. Wright
3. Tazawa
4. Hembree - although performance is normalizing
5. Ross - although performance is normalizing
6. Koji's pitching especially considering his age
7. HRam's fielding
8. Shaw - all aspects, but he has started to cool off at the plate
9. Bradley's Hitting has shattered expectations
10. Papi's age defying hitting
11. Rutledge's Hitting
12. Xander's all around play (.893 OPS now)
13. The all around fielding
14. The all around base running
To reasonable expectations +/-
1. Vazquez hitting (mediocre at best and catching excellent although not yet to his pre-injury level)
2. Pedey
3. Betts
4. Bradley's fielding
5. Holt
6. Young
7. Kimbrel - 2 poor outings, 11 excellent outings
8. HRam's hitting - in the midst of a hot streak
What's gone meh or poorly, but can reasonably expect to improve
1. Price - the signs are good
2. ERod - hasn't gone
What's gone meh or poorly, and could improve or implode
1. Buchholz
2. Kelly - should be able to take his next start
3. Hanigan's hitting
What's gone poorly and has been put out of its misery this year
1. Panda
2. Hopefully the Owens/O'Sullivan starts as the fill-in starter. The win-loss results were outstanding, but the pitching performances were poor
So 2 weeks later and things are looking even better. The only significant downgrades are relatively minor (Ross, Hembree and the 6th starter) or now definitive --- Panda out for the year. In addition to being minor, Kelly is ready to take the role as 5th starter and ERod should be ready by the end of the month. Things are looking up for quite a few players: As expected Price and Kimbrel have looked much better, Hanley and Xander have both started to hit the ball well and Young is now an important member of the left field rotation. Bradley has been unbelievable and Papi and Koji are age defying. Even Rutledge is hitting very well.
It also gives a different perspective regarding Ben. At least two of the contracts which looked very bad going into the year, now look like fair contracts (Hanley and Porcello).
This has been a fun team to watch for the last two weeks and it looks like it should be an entertaining and hopefully successful summer and fall.
I understand what you're doing, but 2 weeks in a baseball season is just too tiny for passing (or changing) judgment. There's a habit of getting too down on the team if/when it has a shitty couple of weeks and getting too high when they exceed expectations in the same period. One thing we've learned from watching for so long is the real meaning of the overly used term, "grind", which refers to all 26 weeks of the season and the ups and downs that go with that schedule.
The Red Sox are in the 7th week right now and a lot of things have gone right, many of which should continue. They've thrived with some pretty lousy pitching, which has a good chance to improve. I don't know how the Orioles pitching staff is doing it (3.53 ERA - with only 1 more "quality start", for what that's worth, than the Yankees), and I don't know why the Blue Jays hitters aren't.
I guess it depends whether one is looking at things through a convex or concave lens.
The Red Sox are in the 7th week right now and a lot of things have gone right, many of which should continue. They've thrived with some pretty lousy pitching, which has a good chance to improve. I don't know how the Orioles pitching staff is doing it (3.53 ERA - with only 1 more "quality start", for what that's worth, than the Yankees), and I don't know why the Blue Jays hitters aren't.
I guess it depends whether one is looking at things through a convex or concave lens.
Well, a lot has gone right - but the season may be entering one of the pivot points now - all about pitching.
The touted bullpen could be minus an effective Uehara and Smith, leaving Tazawa/Kimbrel as the only plus arms out there. That's a far cry from what was anticipated.
The rotation has been holding itself together (with kudos to the lineup and defense), but it's possible Rodriguez is done - meaning the team will rely on Price (no issue for me), Porcello (looks ok), Buchholz (bleh), Wright (can he maintain the excellence?) and Kelly (who knows), with nothing exciting down on the farm.
The next couple of weeks are going to establish if things continue to go right or not. Fingers crossed.
The touted bullpen could be minus an effective Uehara and Smith, leaving Tazawa/Kimbrel as the only plus arms out there. That's a far cry from what was anticipated.
The rotation has been holding itself together (with kudos to the lineup and defense), but it's possible Rodriguez is done - meaning the team will rely on Price (no issue for me), Porcello (looks ok), Buchholz (bleh), Wright (can he maintain the excellence?) and Kelly (who knows), with nothing exciting down on the farm.
The next couple of weeks are going to establish if things continue to go right or not. Fingers crossed.
Sometimes when you play teams is more important than the teams talent level in determining outcome. They have been the 2 worst teams in the AL besides the Twins for a long stretch this year
I had the general sense the Sox are swinging more early in the count this year. Still small sample, but a few quick stats (from BR) on pitches per plate appearance agreed with that, but what stood out more is Red Sox vs. rest of AL.
2013 AL avg. 3.86 RS 4.01 (#2, Minn. 4.02)
2014 AL avg. 3.85 RS 4.05 (#1, Minn. at #2 with 3.99)
2015 AL avg. 3.84 RS 3.95 (#1, NYY at #2 with 3.91)
2016 AL avg. 3.89 RS 3.88 (#8)
2016 stats are through 05/17
Interesting that Houston leads AL in PPA YTD with 4.08, and has 4.30 runs/game.
Texas is last in PPA with 3.70 and has 4.62 runs/game
Not an extreme change, but Red Sox have moved to middle of pack after typically being at or near the top.
Chili Davis effect?
Simply not having Napoli in the lineup?
It seems in years past people complained about too many Red Sox batters letting hitter's pitches go by in order to work the count. This team seems to be filled with smart hitters; not only going the other way as a team better than I can recall, but not becoming too predictable either.
This kind of stems from the "war on bunting" article posted in the MLB forum, but the Sox only have 2 sacrifice bunts all year. A couple teams only have 1 but that is good progress.
Also, the team is 31 for 34 on stolen bases. Dave Roberts was 38 for 41 in 2004. So that's pretty damn good.
Credit to Farrell and the rest of the staff for both of these, although I am sure a significant portion of SoSH won't be happy until the sacrifice bunts falls to zero (at least for games in AL parks).
Also, the team is 31 for 34 on stolen bases. Dave Roberts was 38 for 41 in 2004. So that's pretty damn good.
Credit to Farrell and the rest of the staff for both of these, although I am sure a significant portion of SoSH won't be happy until the sacrifice bunts falls to zero (at least for games in AL parks).
More crazy stats on the offense...
The difference in runs per game between the #1 Red Sox and the #2 Orioles is 1.01, bigger than the difference between #2 and the #11 Angels, 0.89.
The difference in total hits on the season between the #1 Red Sox and #2 Orioles is 71, bigger than the difference between #2 and the last place Rays, 62.
In the first month and a half, the Red Sox have been the Pedro Martinez of team hitting.
The difference in runs per game between the #1 Red Sox and the #2 Orioles is 1.01, bigger than the difference between #2 and the #11 Angels, 0.89.
The difference in total hits on the season between the #1 Red Sox and #2 Orioles is 71, bigger than the difference between #2 and the last place Rays, 62.
In the first month and a half, the Red Sox have been the Pedro Martinez of team hitting.
The Red Sox have 6 of the top 18 AL hitters by ESPN WAR:
5. X (2.4)
8. Mookie (2.2)
9. JBJ (2.1)
10. Shore (2.1)
14. Flo (2.0)
18. Laser Show (1.9)
Those six regulars are worth almost 13 wins, through May 25th.
No other team has more than 2 of the top 20. We have 6.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/WARBR/order/true
5. X (2.4)
8. Mookie (2.2)
9. JBJ (2.1)
10. Shore (2.1)
14. Flo (2.0)
18. Laser Show (1.9)
Those six regulars are worth almost 13 wins, through May 25th.
No other team has more than 2 of the top 20. We have 6.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/WARBR/order/true
Team OPS is 851. Same as 2003. Except OPS+ is 125 vs 118 in 03
WRC+ 129 vs 1927 MFY 126 - best of all time
WRC+ 129 vs 1927 MFY 126 - best of all time
The Sox are currently on their way to having the best offensive May (measured by sOPS+) in baseball history, with a 151. The #2 team (1928 Yankees) had a 143, so the Sox could slump mildly over this last weekend and still come away #1.
Oddly, the Sox are nowhere near the record for runs scored in May--they currently stand at 148, and the record is 220 (1921 Tigers), so they'd have to average 12 runs a game the rest of the way to match it. However, surpassing the club record of 177 runs in May will be a much easier lift.
Oddly, the Sox are nowhere near the record for runs scored in May--they currently stand at 148, and the record is 220 (1921 Tigers), so they'd have to average 12 runs a game the rest of the way to match it. However, surpassing the club record of 177 runs in May will be a much easier lift.
With 121 doubles in 46 games, they are on pace for 426 this season. The ML record is 376.
The Sox have 30 more doubles than the 2nd place AL team. The difference from the 2nd place AL team to the last place AL team is 27.
The Sox have scored 54 more runs than the 2nd place AL team. The difference between the 2nd place AL team to the last place AL team is 53 runs.
The Sox have 30 more doubles than the 2nd place AL team. The difference from the 2nd place AL team to the last place AL team is 27.
The Sox have scored 54 more runs than the 2nd place AL team. The difference between the 2nd place AL team to the last place AL team is 53 runs.
Ortiz and Bradley are #1 and 3 in all of baseball in OPS, sandwiching Daniel Murphy (who's only 0.001 ahead of Bradley).
Red Sox leading all of baseball in runs scored:
Boston: 302
St. Louis: 282
Cubs: 273
Second in Run Differential to the Cubs.
More fun with (traditional) offensive stats: Top 10's
AVG: (1) Bogaerts, (3) Ortiz, (5) Bradley
RUNS: (1) Betts, (2) Bogaerts, (7) Pedroia
HITS: (1) Bogaerts, (T3) Pedroia & Betts
DOUBLES: (1) Ortiz, (3) Bogaerts, (5) Shaw, (7) Pedroia
TRIPLES: (T1) Bradley & Betts, (T5) Swihart
HR: (T4) Ortiz
RBI: (1) Ortiz, (T4) Bradley, (T8) Betts & Shaw
OPS: (1) Ortiz, (2) Bradley, (10) Bogaerts
Boston: 302
St. Louis: 282
Cubs: 273
Second in Run Differential to the Cubs.
More fun with (traditional) offensive stats: Top 10's
AVG: (1) Bogaerts, (3) Ortiz, (5) Bradley
RUNS: (1) Betts, (2) Bogaerts, (7) Pedroia
HITS: (1) Bogaerts, (T3) Pedroia & Betts
DOUBLES: (1) Ortiz, (3) Bogaerts, (5) Shaw, (7) Pedroia
TRIPLES: (T1) Bradley & Betts, (T5) Swihart
HR: (T4) Ortiz
RBI: (1) Ortiz, (T4) Bradley, (T8) Betts & Shaw
OPS: (1) Ortiz, (2) Bradley, (10) Bogaerts
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