What's the big deal?

benhogan

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. And I am still skeptical of Tatum's elite defensive rating. He has improved, no doubt, but I think Stevens has as much if not more to do with it than Tatum.
While Trae was getting where he wanted versus a rusty Smart last night, Tatum played some solid defense on Trae last night. TY scored a 30' bomb on JT last night on a tip-out offensive board, otherwise, JT didn't allow him to penetrate or score another point.

Without a doubt, Tatum is an elite perimeter defender due to his instincts, anticipation, positioning and length/wingspan. The eye test and adv metrics back that up.

CBS is turning to Tatum more frequently to shut down the opponents' 3pt snipers. He guards 1-4 and can hold his own versus small 5s. He'll get more ferocious on defense as he gains strength.

I'm not dealing Tatum ++ for KAT, who isn't in my top10, and plays a dying position. I expect the C's to stay economical at the 5 and spend on wings/a ballhandler.
 

the moops

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I'm not dealing Tatum ++ for KAT, who isn't in my top10, and plays a dying position. I expect the C's to stay economical at the 5 and spend on wings/a ballhandler.
Stretch bigs like KAT or AD are certainly not a dying breed. They are rare though, that's for sure.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Towns is exactly the sort of player for whom the Cs would, at least, consider moving Tatum. He is essentially two and a half years older and his cost is already established along with his elite production. He is one of the best stretch bigs in the game and any NBA team would love to have him.

I think Tatum is a very good player now and will continue to improve. That said, I think referring to him as an elite defender in any sense is a bit premature and depending on the metrics, you can make a case he is good but not great. In any event, that should not be the reason they don't move him for Towns.

In short, as moops points out, players like KAT are extremely rare whereas Tatum, as good as he already is, can be replaced to some degree.
 

benhogan

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Stretch bigs like KAT or AD are certainly not a dying breed. They are rare though, that's for sure.
KAT and AD are absurdly good offensively but I like AD much more on defense.

KAT/Tatum are unique players and a deal isn't happening, so its not really worth doing the work/exercise in exploring.

I'll just say I like the Celtics approach to the 5
 

The Gray Eagle

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From the Athletic:

Among Celtics writers, the name Evan Turner will forever be associated with golden interviews. While his role on the court has diminished, the former Celtics wing ranks as one of the league’s best for quotes. He is willing to discuss just about anything and does so with a crackling sense of humor. For whatever it’s worth, count Turner as someone who believes the Celtics have enough frontcourt talent.

“Nah, boy,” Turner replied when asked if his old team needs an upgrade there. “Enes Kanter’s an animal. Don’t ask me. No. Fuck. No. No. For what? Besides what you have with Enes and Theis and all them, when you break it down, people don’t even use centers anymore. Isn’t (Joel) Embiid in Philly 7-foot-5, 400 pounds, shooting 3s from half court? That’s the game, right? So at the end of the day, I don’t think so.”
That about sums it up. “Nah, boy. No. Fuck. No. No."
 

Devizier

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Davis Bertans? Seems like a decent fit, actually.

Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard was sincere in his comments last month about his intentions to re-sign sharpshooting forward Davis Bertans this summer, but that hasn't stopped teams from showing interest ahead of the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline.

In addition to the Sixers, Hawks and Lakers, the Celtics and Nuggets have emerged as suitors for Bertans' services, NBC Sports Washington has learned. Bertans, 27, has enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 15.4 points and 4.9 rebounds while shooting 43.4 percent from three on 8.6 attempts per game.
 

RedOctober3829

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Hollinger presents an interesting trade idea for the Celtics in his column today. Semi and Poirier for Sacramento big man Nemanja Bjelica. He's a good outside shooter(41% from 3) and versatile between the 4 and the 5. He is signed beyond this year for only $7.1 million.
 

128

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Yes, which is why he might be available, and at a reasonable price.
He'd be a fantastic fit. I'm guessing there would be considerable competition for his services, and the Wizards could really drive up the price.
 

NomarsFool

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I think the Celtics have been managing very well with the combination of Kanter and Theis. The challenge is, what would happen if one of them went down? If Robert Williams was healthy, I wouldn't be concerned at all. But, I'm starting to believe you can't rely on him at all. Especially lately, the injury situation seems anything but reassuring. Broken bones obviously heal. Weird ailments where no one seems to know what to do besides rest and hope it gets better - worrisome.
 

bowiac

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He's an unrestricted free agent after this season, right?
He's unrestricted, but does have Bird rights on that deal, so there's a scenario where he can be retained. Hard to see the Celtics using those Bird rights however.
 

NomarsFool

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Here's the challenge, do you spend a late first rounder (our pick or Milwaukee's pick) on an extra big that probably won't play more than 10 minutes a game unless Theis/Kanter get hurt - or do you hope those guys stay healthy and take some extra shots on some developmental international bigs? There seems to be a few interesting international big men out there where the Celtics would be drafting at the end of the first round. It would seem a good fit, because (you'd hope) they could be draft and stash players (since I don't think the C's have much room on their roster for more rookies).
 

chilidawg

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Here's the challenge, do you spend a late first rounder (our pick or Milwaukee's pick) on an extra big that probably won't play more than 10 minutes a game unless Theis/Kanter get hurt - or do you hope those guys stay healthy and take some extra shots on some developmental international bigs? There seems to be a few interesting international big men out there where the Celtics would be drafting at the end of the first round. It would seem a good fit, because (you'd hope) they could be draft and stash players (since I don't think the C's have much room on their roster for more rookies).
Bertans doesn't fit the 5 spot, he's a stretch 4 you would use alongside either of Theis or Kanter. I like him because he fits a niche that no one else on the roster does, increasing the C's versatility. And he's a great shooter.

No way you spend those assets if the plan is only to use him for 10 minutes, but I think you'd find a way to use him 20-25.
 

Big John

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Melli is another tall shooter who is a stretch 4 (we saw the other night that he is definitely not a 5). He would be cheaper than the Latvian Laser. Local kid Georges Niang would be another less expensive option, although he playing so well that Utah might not want to move him, even for a late first round pick.
 

benhogan

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Hollinger presents an interesting trade idea for the Celtics in his column today. Semi and Poirier for Sacramento big man Nemanja Bjelica. He's a good outside shooter(41% from 3) and versatile between the 4 and the 5. He is signed beyond this year for only $7.1 million.
Bjelica would be a great addition if that's the cost
 

lovegtm

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Related but possibly separate topic:

The Celtics have a lot of young players. Probably too many, especially if they have difficulty rolling over picks this June. The other problem is that most of the young players have only marginal value, which isn't surprising: they're young, and don't get tons of minutes because the team is a legitimate, if fringe, contender.

So...assuming that the Celtics need to make a deal at the deadline or the summer to free up roster spots, who are you fine letting go of, if push comes to shove, for no value in return?

My list:
Guys I'd be fine just letting go of:
- VP (might have to give a bit of value to unload)
- Carsen (this sucks, because they could have had Thybulle and Grant)
- Tacko

Guys I'd be fine throwing in if they were treated as very light value:
- Javonte
- Wanamaker (does his job well, but not worth pulling a Yabu for)
- Semi (I'm assuming he'd be very cheap in FA, and his improved outside shot makes him the kind of guy you always want to have around at 3-5M per on an expensive team. He's close to the better group imo.)

Guys I'd need decent value for because of upside and cost control:
- Grant
- Waters (maybe in the light value group, but I'm high on him as backup PG)

Can't really move because of the delta between upside and present value uncertainty
- Romeo
- TL
 

pjheff

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- Carsen (this sucks, because they could have had Thybulle and Grant)
This placement is the only one with which I disagree. I’d eliminate all of the deep depth veteran bodies before Edwards who still has a chance to develop into a rotation player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Guys I'd be fine letting go of in the summer
VP
Carsen
Tacko
Javonte
Wanamaker
Semi

Guy I would like to see more of but wouldn't care much about
Waters

Guys I'd want value for/would rather keep
Williams
Romeo
TL

Not too different than yours. Isn't Wanamaker a FA this summer anyway?
 

lovegtm

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Guys I'd be fine letting go of in the summer
VP
Carsen
Tacko
Javonte
Wanamaker
Semi

Guy I would like to see more of but wouldn't care much about
Waters

Guys I'd want value for/would rather keep
Williams
Romeo
TL

Not too different than yours. Isn't Wanamaker a FA this summer anyway?
Yeah, not so different. The only place I'm hesitant is letting Semi and Javonte go for nothing: you can never really have enough defensively competent wing depth, and on a team as expensive as this one is going to me, those guys help. I guess if you think Semi is getting $6M+ in RFA, but I don't see that market for him at all.

Edit: forgot that Semi has the "RFA this summer or UFA 2021" team decision. I'd probably just try to do a really cheap 4-year deal this summer, because if his 3 keeps being consistent, he actually might be hardish to retain in 2021 (at a price you want).
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I thought Semi signed a 4 year deal.

edit: yeah. From spotrac: 2020 non-guaranteed, fully if not waived on or before 7/1/20
 

lovegtm

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I thought Semi signed a 4 year deal.

edit: yeah. From spotrac: 2020 non-guaranteed, fully if not waived on or before 7/1/20
Ya, I checked his contract after those posts. RFA this summer or UFA 2021. Javonte is a 2021 RFA, definitely not giving that away for nothing.
 

lovegtm

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Weiss did a somewhat related article in the Athletic, reaching similar conclusions (although didn't get into Edwards/Waters/Romeo/TL):
https://theathletic.com/1560689/2020/01/25/celtics-rotation-trade-deadline/?source=shared-article
He seems to think Semi has positive trade value as a defensively smart/versatile wing who can also hit some 3s, but do little else. If Semi really does have that value for someone, I'm be good to move him, maybe sending VP and/or Wanamaker along too and consolidating the roster a bit.
 

benhogan

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We have half a season, the playoffs, and the Summer to really form opinions on young players/roster construction.
(but its a fun exercise ;))

This will definitely change as players/rookies develop:

Guys I'd be fine just letting go of:
- VP (potential filler/ballast, veteran 5s are cheap/fungible)
- Wanamaker (Waters takes his spot next season)

Guys I'd be fine throwing in if they were treated as very light value:
- Semi (just doesn't elevate in the lane to challenge Simmons or Giannis shots, they know that and have been exploiting that recently. Grant can take over his role)

Unique players, really need to see more, I'll have a much better idea by seasons end:
-Carsen (Not sure it's a good idea to have Edwards, Kemba and Waters all on the same roster, but CE is super cheap and an explosive, deep 3pt threat. Lacks confidence - needs to find it in Maine)
-Tacko (Probably more sentimental than rational, just have an inkling Brad can carve out an efficient role/niche for Tacko)
-TL (can't stay healthy, once again veteran 5s are cheap)
- Javonte (can't teach that explosiveness, it's elite. Brad could design plays around his ability to get to the rim. If he brings on-ball defense with his quickness, he's a keeper)

Have a rotational role in 2021 and beyond:
- Romeo (rotational wing behind the Jay's)
- Grant (2nd string 4, small ball 5)
- Waters (3rd string PG, good on-ball defender that can rack up perimeter steals)


That's a total of 10 players on their current 17 man roster. I'd expect 6-7 of them back next season filling out the rotation and the deep bench. They are mostly cheap, controlled and will have NBA/Celtic experience, which is what they need to fill out the roster with Kemba, JT, JB and Hayward (or his salary slot) sopping up most of the cap in the future.
 
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lovegtm

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We have half a season and the Summer to really form opinions on young players/roster construction.
(but its a fun exercise ;))

This will definitely change as players/rookies develop:

Guys I'd be fine just letting go of:
- VP (potential filler/ballast, veteran 5s are cheap/fungible)
- Wanamaker (Waters takes his spot next season)

Guys I'd be fine throwing in if they were treated as very light value:
- Semi (just doesn't elevate in the lane to challenge Simmons or Giannis shots, they know that and have been exploiting that recently. Grant can take over his role)

Unique players, really need to see more, I'll have a much better idea by seasons end:
-Carsen (Not sure it's a good idea to have Water, Kemba and Waters all on the same roster, but CE is super cheap and explosive)
-Tacko (probably more sentimental then rational)
-TL (can't stay healthy, his body isn't built for NBA, 5s are cheap/fungible)
- Javonte (can't teach that explosiveness, it's elite. Brad could design plays around his ability to get to the rim. If he brings on-ball defense with his quickness, he's a keeper)

Have a rotational role on 2021 and beyond:
- Romeo (rotational wing behind the Jay's)
- Grant (2nd string 4, small ball 5)
- Waters (3rd string PG, good on-ball defender that can rack up perimeter steals)
I like your list better than mine.
 

NomarsFool

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Wanamaker is an UFA this summer. I'd think Green would be in the same boat, but I don't know for sure.
 

lexrageorge

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Wanamaker is an UFA this summer. I'd think Green would be in the same boat, but I don't know for sure.
Green is under contract for next season, although it is not guaranteed. Given that he would only cost $1.5M, it's a safe bet he's on the team next season unless he's part of a trade package.

Wanamaker is eligible for a qualifying offer from the Celtics of $1.9M, which, if made, would make Wanamaker an RFA. If not made, he becomes UFA, which seems likely.
 

NomarsFool

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I hadn't heard that before. If Wanamaker only costs $1.9M, he's very likely to be on the team next year.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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imo Wanamaker needs to have a good stretch run to not only earn minutes in the playoffs but to keep his spot on the roster this season. Next season is another story, cost be damned.

The guy is shooting 37% from the field for December and January and 24.3% from deep while his assists are down ~ 1 per game from the start of the season. Furthermore, his defense has been pretty bad the past month as well.

Of course, maybe he is playing hurt so perhaps he will get healthier and his numbers will more closely resemble those from the start of the season. But even for his low price tag, the C's may be better off using one of their young guys or finding help elsewhere for his role.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm not a big fan, but for practically nothing, he is a serviceable emergency point guard. I wish he would shoot less. I don't really love the coast to coast going up against 2-3 other players and missing the layup stuff he likes to do. Granted, he does make some of them in that situation. I just don't really want to see him putting up shots almost ever. I also feel like those 1 on 2, 1 on 3 situations end up with not collecting the rebound, either. I also don't love seeing lineups with Wannamaker and Kemba on the floor. I know they like Kemba off ball, but I just don't like having Wannamaker out there all that much.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not a big fan, but for practically nothing, he is a serviceable emergency point guard. I wish he would shoot less. I don't really love the coast to coast going up against 2-3 other players and missing the layup stuff he likes to do. Granted, he does make some of them in that situation. I just don't really want to see him putting up shots almost ever. I also feel like those 1 on 2, 1 on 3 situations end up with not collecting the rebound, either. I also don't love seeing lineups with Wannamaker and Kemba on the floor. I know they like Kemba off ball, but I just don't like having Wannamaker out there all that much.
How hard is it to find a "serviceable emergency point guard?" What's the saying? That's some damning with faint phrase?

Thing is, at 1.8 mil he wouldn't be all that much more expensive than a 2nd round pick so maybe they keep him. Granted, they could probably replace his production with a 2nd round pick or possibly Waters.

If you look at most of the list, the guys people are fine giving away for nothing or for little value were all 2nd round picks or international free agents. We replaced Larkins with Wanamaker. We picked up Theis on the cheap a few years back too. These guys aren't really being traded for and would just be filler in deals. They also don't really make enough to be fillers in deals.

Even if you like guys like Javonte and Semi, I doubt anyone's calling the Celtics to trade for them. These are the types of guys you replace when they start to get expensive. It's why I like the strategy of bringing in 6-7 rookies+IFA every year and seeing what's good enough to stick around for a couple years. I think using that strategy, finding a player like Semi who can stick around for a few years and offer value isn't so hard.

Ideally, I think the first 8 spots in the rotation should be used for players who can contribute to winning basketball games, the 9-10 spots to rookies/young players with considerable potential, and the last 7 spots to 2nd round picks/IFA/non draftees. Find who the Semi's are and let them play out their contracts, cut the others and repeat the process.

I don't like turnovers on the court but I like turnover at the end of my lineup.

edit: Theis is good. I just mentioned him to point out that Danny has picked up quite a few cheap IFAs to fill out the roster in recent years.
 

benhogan

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I can't be the only one here that held their breath watching Theis land awkwardly and head to the locker room yesterday. With veteran, usable 5s costing next to nothing (late 2nd for WCS) Danny & Co are playing a silly game of chicken here (especially with plenty of draft stock). While Wanamaker was solid last season/first 6 weeks this season, we've seen enough of Waters that he can transition into the 3rd string PG/4th string ballhandler. The C's could open up a spot on the roster by moving Brad Wanamaker and adding a serviceable 5 (use one of their 1sts or 2nds depending on quality). VP or Tacko (who CBS doesn't trust) don't have the past NBA experience to be thrown into games and play big minutes. Experimenting with 10mpg is their ceiling until they get comfortable/show progress. I'm also not counting on TL returning this season healthy. Theis/Kanter, while extremely effective, would be better served playing 10-20mpg based on matchups the rest of the season. Come playoffs they can be adjusted to play more, bigger roles. My concern is Theis/Kanter won't make it to the playoffs, especially if Brad uses them for 30+mpg, while the other is out.

Nub Alert is flashing Danny, it's about time he made a cheap depth move. OR he can wait until Theis/Kanter gets injured and have to overpay for a back-up Center :rolleyes:
 
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Jimbodandy

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He's waiting too long, I agree, but there's no way that this team hits the playoffs with GW12 as its #3 big.

Maybe TL does a Lazarus. Maybe a trade happens at the deadline. But I would not at all be surprised to see him wait until the buyout season though. And that's really tempting fate.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He's waiting too long, I agree, but there's no way that this team hits the playoffs with GW12 as its #3 big.

Maybe TL does a Lazarus. Maybe a trade happens at the deadline. But I would not at all be surprised to see him wait until the buyout season though. And that's really tempting fate.
The market for bigs seems skewed with quite a few teams (Dallas, Boston, LAC, Houston and even Portland to name a few) needing them and not a lot of supply. Furthermore, setting aside wishcasting deals, what may be available is out there because the player is likely deeply flawed (skills or salary or both)

Competing to pay up for a third string big who likely is limited in some way and likely won't be the real difference between advancing or not doesn't seem like an Ainge move.

As such, I think you are correct that they will pick one of the misfit toy bigs on the buyout market. If an elite big somehow becomes available that changes things. But its hard to see that happening at present.
 

Jimbodandy

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The market for bigs seems skewed with quite a few teams (Dallas, Boston, LAC, Houston and even Portland to name a few) needing them and not a lot of supply. Furthermore, setting aside wishcasting deals, what may be available is out there because the player is likely deeply flawed (skills or salary or both)

Competing to pay up for a third string big who likely is limited in some way and likely won't be the real difference between advancing or not doesn't seem like an Ainge move.

As such, I think you are correct that they will pick one of the misfit toy bigs on the buyout market. If an elite big somehow becomes available that changes things. But its hard to see that happening at present.
Yep. I will suppress my dreams of Hayward plus picks for a cost controlled Miles Turner plus ballast, because it won't happen for a number of reasons. Some guys will shake loose. They won't be good, but they will be tall.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yep. I will suppress my dreams of Hayward plus picks for a cost controlled Miles Turner plus ballast, because it won't happen for a number of reasons. Some guys will shake loose. They won't be good, but they will be tall.
I struggle with that trade. I see why it appeals to you and others who feel the Cs absolutely need a better big. But Hayward is so much more valuable than Turner based on any data I look at - it feels like a talent downgrade or a lateral move at best. I think Ainge would sell out for an elite big but I don't believe Turner is elite and may never be based on his current skillset.
 

Jimbodandy

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I struggle with that trade. I see why it appeals to you and others who feel the Cs absolutely need a better big. But Hayward is so much more valuable than Turner based on any data I look at - it feels like a talent downgrade or a lateral move at best. I think Ainge would sell out for an elite big but I don't believe Turner is elite and may never be based on his current skillset.
Buying now is buying low on Turner. Turner is cost controlled at way less money and more years. And he's big.

But still not happening.
 

lovegtm

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Deadline wishlist seems pretty clear at this point: a depth big and a lights-out shooter.

The bar for depth big "playable in the NBA." You send VP and the Nets 2nd rounder, or the MIL 1st if the guy is good enough. Alternatively could work the buyout market.

Shooter is harder--Bjelica is the obvious one, but he'd be unplayable with Kanter, and also would take them decently deep into the tax if GH opts in. The Celtics have the ammo to get Bertans or Bogdanovic, but the contract situations there make the luxury tax problem even bigger.

A lot depends on what Hayward's agent is telling them about his plans--I'd imagine/hope the communication here is a lot better than in Kyrie's case.
 

the moops

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I wouldn't worry too much about luxury tax if they were to get Bjelica. He is easily moved in the offseason should they need to get back below
 

benhogan

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Deadline wishlist seems pretty clear at this point: a depth big and a lights-out shooter.

The bar for depth big "playable in the NBA." You send VP and the Nets 2nd rounder, or the MIL 1st if the guy is good enough. Alternatively could work the buyout market.

Shooter is harder--Bjelica is the obvious one, but he'd be unplayable with Kanter, and also would take them decently deep into the tax if GH opts in. The Celtics have the ammo to get Bertans or Bogdanovic, but the contract situations there make the luxury tax problem even bigger.

A lot depends on what Hayward's agent is telling them about his plans--I'd imagine/hope the communication here is a lot better than in Kyrie's case.
IF we got Bjelica (or Bertens), they would be good guys to play with Grant at the 5. So getting one of them could help with frontcourt girth/size against 2nd units. Then Danny could trawl the buyout market for 5 depth or just keep VP as the 4th string 5 (DT, EK, GW)
 

Jimbodandy

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IF we got Bjelica (or Bertens), they would be good guys to play with Grant at the 5. So getting one of them could help with frontcourt girth/size against 2nd units. Then Danny could trawl the buyout market for 5 depth or just keep VP as the 4th string 5 (DT, EK, GW)
I agree with all of the last few posts on this, but I think that the reason that VP is speculated as in a deal is for his roster spot.
 

lovegtm

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IF we got Bjelica (or Bertens), they would be good guys to play with Grant at the 5. So getting one of them could help with frontcourt girth/size against 2nd units. Then Danny could trawl the buyout market for 5 depth or just keep VP as the 4th string 5 (DT, EK, GW)
I could really get behind giving up assets for Bertans, and then signing him in the summer while doing a S&T for Hayward. Bertans is more mobile defensively than Bjelica, younger, and would unlock the Celtics to a crazy degree. Him/Kemba/Tatum/Brown would be completely unguardable--you'd be looking at 120+ ORtgs.
 

benhogan

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You can get there salary-wise (without putting in Smart or Theis) by doing Semi/Carsen/Langford/VP/Kanter/Javonte. Alternatively keep Langford and put in Theis, or switch someone out for TL. Obviously it gets tough to find a trade that makes the roster sizes balance properly, and a third team would be necessary for that.

This is probably why Danny is publicly saying now that they have too many young guys and want to consolidate the roster. If you want to do some complicated 3-team transaction, it helps a lot if other teams you're not in constant contact with know what you want and can plan for it.
if Danny had an inkling that Kanter would sign a 2yr $10MM-14MM deal at seasons end I'd be inclined to keep Enes over Theis. Kanter is incredibly unique on 2nd units, Brad knows exactly what he gets from him and how to utilize him. While I've always been high on DT (in the Brad Machine), his skill set is rather fungible, and Danny could find half a dozen guys (ie Baynes, Poeltl, Noel, WCS, +all the expensive FA 5s that will be desperate for a home) on the cheap in the offseason to replace him
 

Sam Ray Not

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Who says no (this after watching Steph and Brad's extended postgame whisper/cuddle fest)?

GSW gets Beal
MIN gets Russell
WAS gets Wiggins + two top 5 picks (from GS and MIN)

Yeah, DC nominally says no, but I'm assuming a scenario where Beal is 100% fed up and has no interest in their rebuild around Rui Hachimura and Troy Brown.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
51,289
Who says no (this after watching Steph and Brad's extended postgame whisper/cuddle fest)?

GSW gets Beal
MIN gets Russell
WAS gets Wiggins + two top 5 picks (from GS and MIN)

Yeah, DC nominally says no, but I'm assuming a scenario where Beal is 100% fed up and has no interest in their rebuild around Rui Hachimura and Troy Brown.
Minnesota also says no.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
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Dec 18, 2003
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New York, NY
The league office says 'no. Beal is ineligible to be traded until the season is over.