When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

[bosox188]

It's the first series of the season, there's always some guys who start hot and some who start a bit cold. Hitters looking off on swings a few games in won't tell you anything either. I'm also fairly sure that the Mariners have a good reputation for developing sliders for their pitchers, I'm not all that surprised to see a lot of them thrown at good hitters.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

There is more than SSS to go on here, if you saw his at bats.

1) Seattle clearly had a plan and was relentless with it.
2) He was unable to make any adjustment and got beat on sliders in the zone.
3) On a positive, no Javy Baez here, his discipline on the sliders is excellent.

But the core is they attacked him that way daring him to prove any level of competency to the contrary, and at least for four days, there was no adjustment, no competent swings with bad luck. Maybe it was just respect of his ability to hit a fastball and a bad weekend, but it did not look that way. He seemed mechanically off on every swing on a slider in the zone and looked really helpless.

I think the statistical outcome of four games is almost completely meaningless, and I'm not at all worried about Story, etc. But the substance behind those outcomes for Casas are concerning and to keep an eye on.

Seattle's plan of attack was pretty clear as you note and the outcome speaks for itself. Casas is likely going to see a steady diet of sliders going forward too. He will have to adjust . I'm betting he will but it may take longer than he or we like.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Seattle had a great game plan for Casas. They also have a great pitching staff. I doubt there are many teams that could throw all sliders to him over the course of a four game series and not hang a few of them.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Small ray of optimism regarding the sliders: on Casas' ground out to 2B in the fifth, it was a slider that he absolutely hit on the screws (105.1 mph exit velocity). The result was a one-hopper right at the second baseman but the fact that he hit it so well suggests he's not getting totally fooled by every slider. Adjustments shouldn't need to be drastic to solve the problem.

 

[Fishy1]

And as someone pointed out upthread, he absolutely crushed sliders last year to the tune of a . 600 SLG. He'll be fine, it's very early.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

My only real concern with Casas is that he’s going to put too much pressure on himself this season as he’s now a fully enthroned cornerstone

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

My initial impression of the approach by Seattle wasn't that it was simply sliders but rather a mixture of sliders, sweeper and cutters that kept him off balance. My guess is that this was a novel approach by Seattle and that past success against sliders may not mean we'll see as good results if other teams adopt the slider / sweeper / cutter heavy approach. It has to be insanely difficult as a hitter to read slider v. cutter v. sweeper. This will interesting to track for sure.

 

[shaggydog2000]

My initial impression of the approach by Seattle wasn't that it was simply sliders but rather a mixture of sliders, sweeper and cutters that kept him off balance. My guess is that this was a novel approach by Seattle and that past success against sliders may not mean we'll see as good results if other teams adopt the slider / sweeper / cutter heavy approach. It has to be insanely difficult as a hitter to read slider v. cutter v. sweeper. This will interesting to track for sure.

View attachment 80291

Like @Salem's Lot has noted, it's easy to see how a good pitcher can beat you, but expecting every pitcher on every team be able to mix multiple high quality breaking pitches and keep them all in the zone enough to not walk a batter with as good an eye as Casas is asking a lot. Others will mess up, hang balls, walk him, etc.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Joe Boyle, the A's pitcher tonight, was only in three games last year, so not much data. He threw the 4 seam 58% of the time. Hopefully that trend will continue and Casas will see fewer breaking balls tonight. Here's the mix from Baseball Savant.

 

[bosox188]

Joe Boyle, the A's pitcher tonight, was only in three games last year, so not much data. He threw the 4 seam 58% of the time. Hopefully that trend will continue and Casas will see fewer breaking balls tonight. Here's the mix from Baseball Savant.
View attachment 80325

Boyle is known for having big stuff but absolutely horrendous control. On any other team he probably wouldn't have gotten a shot at starting. If Casas walks three times tonight and is never even tempted to swing the bat, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Fishy1]

Boyle is known for having big stuff but absolutely horrendous control. On any other team he probably wouldn't have gotten a shot at starting. If Casas walks three times tonight and is never even tempted to swing the bat, I wouldn't be surprised.

93 walks in 117 innings last year in the minors. Thats taking free passes to the level of performance art.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

View: https://twitter.com/KleinschmidtJD/status/1774894707279311053?t=Lqg2D5AbK71H689FxGI2ig&s=19

 

[soxhop411]

Casas jokes during his post game interview that the red seat is a myth
View: https://twitter.com/nesn/status/1779281735269724609?s=46

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

please get this kid a 10 year $150M contract ASAP. As sure as the sun will rise, I’m as confident in inking in him for an .850-.950 OPS with 30 Hrs every one of those seasons

 

[103mph Screwball]

Man I love this kid. Please sign him long term asap

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Yes. Extend him. His market is going bid and everyone can see it.

 

[Hendu1986]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere, but I thought it was a great article. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/04/leader-triston-casas-thinks-red-sox-prospect-on-fast-track-to-big-leagues.html

 

[Benj4ever]

please get this kid a 10 year $150M contract ASAP. As sure as the sun will rise, I’m as confident in inking in him for an .850-.950 OPS with 30 Hrs every one of those seasons

I don't think that $150M is going to get it done. In any case, I hope to see him in Boston for the rest of his career.

 

[mauidano]

I don't think that $150M is going to get it done. In any case, I hope to see him in Boston for the rest of his career.

He might be the GM one day. Smart kid.

 

[Hendu1986]

I wonder if the Braves corner infielders would be valid comparisons for signing Casas. Looks like both Riley and Olson got about 20-21 million a year at ten years for Riley and eight years for Olson. I wouldn't have a problem signing Casas to a 10 year, 215 million dollar contract at this point.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think that $150M is going to get it done. In any case, I hope to see him in Boston for the rest of his career.

Without signing an extension, Casas is probably looking at $30-40M over the next four years (call it $900K, $5M, $10M, $15M on the low end). Which means a 10/150 offer would pay him $22-24M per year for the remaining years. It also means he's not a free agent until at least his age 34 season. None of that seems like something a player will agree to at this stage. I'm thinking he's either looking for a 7-8 year deal so he hits free agency at 31 or 32, or he needs something in the range of a 12-13+ year "career" commitment.

I'm thinking 8/110-120 might be more in line with something he'd sign today.

 

[simplicio]

I wonder if the Braves corner infielders would be valid comparisons for signing Casas. Looks like both Riley and Olson got about 20-21 million a year at ten years for Riley and eight years for Olson. I wouldn't have a problem signing Casas to a 10 year, 215 million dollar contract at this point.

It should be cheaper; both those guys got extended when already arbitration eligible and both had demonstrated a capability of performing at a 5+ WAR level.