When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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I'm not so sure why we're so worried about keeping Dominic Smith around. He's been worth exactly 0.0 fWAR this year. I like the guy, don't get me wrong, and I'm rooting for him, and I hope he stays hot after the break. It's possible he's finally recovered from the hamate injury, and we're seeing the Real Dom Smith.

On the other hand, he's got 2000 plate appearances of a 97 OPS+.

If Casas were to go down again after they DFA'd Dom (which is by far the most likely scenario), they'd probably just bite the bullet and add Kavadas to the 40 man. Yeah, he's striking out 33% of the time, but he's also hitting the ball hard 56% of the time according to Statcast.
 

simplicio

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I would put money on Dom being a better player than Kavadas. I would not put money on Kavadas being a better player than Dalbec.
 

YTF

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I'm happy with what Smith has been able to provide in Casas' absence, but I just see no way that the Sox tie up a bench spot with a LHH 1st base only back up to your LHH 1st base only starter. Pehaps if he were mashing the ball you get him some ABs at DH, but he's not and that slot is already plenty spoken for.
 

Fishy1

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I would put money on Dom being a better player than Kavadas. I would not put money on Kavadas being a better player than Dalbec.
I wasn't aware what posters would or would not bet on was considered an argument. ;)

Statcast has Kavadas with a xwOBA of .385 in AAA right now. That blows the entire team out of the water by about 50 points, including Dalbec.

The guy is demolishing AAA pitching right now.

Whether Dom Smith would be better or not is a moot point, anyway. There's no room for him on the roster when Casas comes back. Either he gets DFA'd or traded, and considering that he's been exactly replacement level, I think it's most likely he either gets outrighted, claimed off waivers, or released.

EDIT: By the way, been geeking out on Statcast's minor league search function, which I just found out existed today. Here's Worcester organized by xwOBA.
 

YTF

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I wasn't aware what posters would or would not bet on was considered an argument. ;)

Statcast has Kavadas with a xwOBA of .385 in AAA right now. That blows the entire team out of the water by about 50 points, including Dalbec.

The guy is demolishing AAA pitching right now.

Whether Dom Smith would be better or not is a moot point, anyway. There's no room for him on the roster when Casas comes back. Either he gets DFA'd or traded, and considering that he's been exactly replacement level, I think it's most likely he either gets outrighted, claimed off waivers, or released.
Not to argue your point, but I so wish that this was a better indicator of things than it has been lately.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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Not to argue your point, but I so wish that this was a better indicator of things than it has been lately.
No, it's totally fair to point out. I think the Dalbec experience has also got people spooked, to a certain extent. Seeing the delta between his AAA and MLB performance, it's easy to assume anyone else with a high strikeout rate would experience similar difficulties. But Bobby has never had the plate discipline that Kavadas has. His BB rate is nearly half of Kavadas' right now. And yeah, Kavadas' success in AAA right now is driven by an astronomical BABIP -- but you can get results like that for partial seasons when your hard hit percentage is 56%. For reference, Devers' HH% in the majors right now is 54%.

Regardless, I'm not arguing that Kavadas would come up and be a world beater. Not at all. He strikes out too much, that's just the bottom line. But the bar with Dalbec is exceptionally low, and that if Kavadas were slightly worse than Dom Smith has been, and if we have to release the latter, it wouldn't be the end of the world, and that I'm fairly confident Kavadas could provide us with at least a 0.0 fWAR.
 

grimshaw

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There really isn't room for Smith but he has more than earned his halfsies of a World Series share. I think the love is more because he doesn't swing and miss twice per at bat while being competent in the field. In other words, he has outperformed quite a bit of the scat they had previous to Casas.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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The timing is unfortunate - if Casas were able to come back before the end of this month, they might be able to get something (not much, but something) at the deadline for Dom Smith based on his recent performance. But it's not going to happen. But they may try to keep him at least for a little while as Casas insurance if they are still in the WC spot.
 

LogansDad

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The timing is unfortunate - if Casas were able to come back before the end of this month, they might be able to get something (not much, but something) at the deadline for Dom Smith based on his recent performance. But it's not going to happen. But they may try to keep him at least for a little while as Casas insurance if they are still in the WC spot.
Honestly, Dom seems like a great clubhouse guy, and I would like to see him stick around.

Casas is finally hitting off a tee and soft toss, but still seems a long way off. Obviously you want Casas back in the lineup as soon as possible, but if he happens to take until roster expansion I think Dom is a great candidate for a PH/bench role there.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Honestly, Dom seems like a great clubhouse guy, and I would like to see him stick around.

Casas is finally hitting off a tee and soft toss, but still seems a long way off. Obviously you want Casas back in the lineup as soon as possible, but if he happens to take until roster expansion I think Dom is a great candidate for a PH/bench role there.
That'd be fortunate for Smith if Casas took another 6-7 weeks to return, but not all that great for the team as a whole. Unless Casas suffers an unforeseen setback, I really don't think his return will take another 45+ days. And the team isn't going to slow Casas down or hold him back just to more easily hang on to Dom Smith.
 

LogansDad

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That'd be fortunate for Smith if Casas took another 6-7 weeks to return, but not all that great for the team as a whole. Unless Casas suffers an unforeseen setback, I really don't think his return will take another 45+ days. And the team isn't going to slow Casas down or hold him back just to more easily hang on to Dom Smith.
Oh, I absolutely agree. I do wonder, though, if Casas isn't going to be ready before the trade deadline (or, as it looks more likely, in mid-August), if the team would entertain the though of optioning someone else and giving up a little of their flexibility for a few weeks in order to keep Smith around once rosters expand. A lot depends on the next couple of weeks and how Casas progresses. It sounds like it is going to be at least another week before we are even thinking about a rehab assignment, which could easily be three weeks and put his return around August 10th.

Would it be worth sending, say, Westbrook down for a couple of weeks to facilitate keeping him? Personally, I think it would, but could also buy it being not worth it, as well.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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If Casas were to go down again after they DFA'd Dom (which is by far the most likely scenario), they'd probably just bite the bullet and add Kavadas to the 40 man. Yeah, he's striking out 33% of the time, but he's also hitting the ball hard 56% of the time according to Statcast.
Remember, too, even if it’s after the trade deadline, there will probably be a bunch of players of varying degrees of usefulness hitting the waiver wire in August, just like the Red Sox’ own Lucas Giolito last year.
 

simplicio

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That waiver thing is kinda new and really relies on teams trying to duck under the CBT line, as LAA did last fall. I don't think it's something you bank on happening.

Toronto actually put Kiermeier on them earlier this month but nobody took him.
 

Bergs

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I love this team, but I really think the window doesn't open until next year.
 

twibnotes

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Any concern this injury could recur? This is essentially a lost year, and he’s a big guy with kind of an aggressive swing, no?
 

manny

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Jul 24, 2005
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Agree, I took it to be a post generally saying to gear towards next year. Let Casas heal (don't rush him to try for a playoff spot) and sell pieces at the deadline for the future.
 

Fishy1

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Oh my god, what a relief. They really have missed his bat this year.
 

grimshaw

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If he starts around next Friday and then has a week of games, he could be back on 8-9 for the start of a stretch of 12 games which include 3 vs Baltimore and 6 vs. the Astros. That would be an optimistic timeline.

Or maybe he's already visualized at least 3 of those games and he's up even sooner.
 

iddoc

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Nov 17, 2006
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That would be a very aggressive timeline given how long he has been out. I hope you're right.
 

Al Zarilla

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So, is he going to take it a bit easy on his swing when he gets back, or let out shaft. To me, this thing is scarier than a “regular” leg or arm injury since it was hitting swing caused.
 

joe dokes

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So, is he going to take it a bit easy on his swing when he gets back, or let out shaft. To me, this thing is scarier than a “regular” leg or arm injury since it was hitting swing caused.
It's not my body, and I'm not a doctor......but.....if he "takes it a bit easy," I doubt he'll be worth having in the lineup. Either he can play or he can't. So, IMO, he has to go for it out of the chute. Maybe the concession is that they don't play him every day at the beginning, for more recovery time.
 

Harry Hooper

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From Coolbaugh at BSJ, Casas likely heading off to rehab assignment in the coming week:

Casas participated in infield drills on Saturday, as did Trevor Story — so, as I wrote about last week, that’s an interesting storyline to keep an eye on, as well.

Cora did note that Casas’ rehab stint likely wouldn’t be a quick one. That likely would put him on a trajectory to return somewhere in mid-to late-August. But, hey, we were starting to worry that we wouldn’t see him back at all this year.
 

LogansDad

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I responded in the game thread, but to reiterate: They need to shut him down and let him get ready for spring. Dom is fine for playing out this year, and Casas is a huge part of the future of this franchise. There is no reason to have Casas pushing it right now, in my opinion.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I love Casas, but this whole saga has taught me he’s not necessarily the most reliable narrator, even as it relates to his own injury
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't understand the calls to shut him down. They've cleared him to play despite the reports of pain/discomfort, so obviously the experts aren't concerned that it's a sign he's going to re-injure himself. If he can tolerate it, let him play through it and see how he does. He should be given every opportunity to try to come back this season, no matter how long it takes. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen, but there's no reason to abandon all hope with 50ish games to go in the season.
 

YTF

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We don't know what we don't know. Is that stabbing feeling just in the moment, only when he swings or does it last beyond that? I'm guessing the former with the doctors saying that it will "just take time and tolerance". If he's continuing to feel that pain post game or the following day, perhaps they ramp things down. If it's just in the moment it may just be something he'll need to work through and see if it begins to lessen as days go by.
 

Al Zarilla

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We don't know what we don't know. Is that stabbing feeling just in the moment, only when he swings or does it last beyond that? I'm guessing the former with the doctors saying that it will "just take time and tolerance". If he's continuing to feel that pain post game or the following day, perhaps they ramp things down. If it's just in the moment it may just be something he'll need to work through and see if it begins to lessen as days go by.
It's got to be a mental thing too. "Oh god, what are the chances this gets worse again."