When Liverpool stops being polite...and starts getting Real: The UCL Final

[67YAZ]

As a Liverpool fan, I am already looking ahead to the trophy that really counts...the Champions League.

For Madrid, Alaba is the only injury question. Liverpool have a litany of questions. Salah got some run out today and VVD is rumored to be fine. Thiago limped off at half time and Origi was out altogether, telling reporters post-match that he's done for the season. And then there's Fab, who hasn't been spotted in training yet.

This match hinges on Liverpool's ability to press the un-pressable duo: Modric and Kroos. Madrid have plenty of speed to drive right at the space behind Robbo & Trent, so the key is preventing balls from even being played into those spaces by two of the savviest, most accurate longball passers in the world. "Kroodric" aren't going to turn the ball over, so the focus will be on fast & coordinated closing down that doesn't allow them time to spray balls up to the wings. The execution will have to be spot on every time.

And of course, Benzema could do something insane and win this match by himself. I don't know that there's a lot of scheming involved here, just a classic match up between a world class striker and a world class CB for 90 minutes. I am sure VVD relishes the challenge.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Camavinga has been a game changing player off the bench for Real in several matches in their run. I’m curious whether Ancellotti keeps using him in that way or considers pushing him into the starting lineup. I think his athleticism and ability to get around the field could be very useful against a Liverpool squad that can overwhelm you with pressure and physicality.

I think Liverpool deserve to be substantial favorites but you never know. Real certainly won’t back down.

 

[SocrManiac]

We started this in the game thread, but it bears repeating.

There are a couple of Liverpool squads in play here. Fabinho may be Liverpool’s most critical player against strong sides. He’s an incredible CDM and Klopp uses him brilliantly. One moment Fabinho will be forcing matchups in the final third by creating imbalance, the next he’s anchoring what becomes a back three when the fullbacks are forward and the opponents counter.

Likewise, Thiago changes the style the way Pirlo and Iniesta used to. He controls the buildup and instantly changes the point of attack.

If both are healthy, Liverpool can own spells of play and minimize the Real midfield threat as well as any side might. This is Liverpool’s likeliest path to victory.

Unfortunately, with one or both out, I don’t think the spine is up for it. The other options just don’t lend the versatility or strengths. This is where Liverpool are most sorely missing Gini (remember him?).

Salah is a ghost of his pre-AFCON self. Mané didn’t fall as far, but he’s dropped off as well. They’ve been able to beat the EPL sides they’re expected to by scraping by, but haven’t been tested by the likes of a Real recently.

If Fabinho and Thiago are up for it they may find a 2-1 victory. If one or both are out, it may be as bad as 3-0 to Real.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Without Thiago AND Fabinho I don’t think they’re favourites at all. Not that it matters. When Real put Liverpool out last year it was due to long accurate passes from the likes of Kroos under no pressure. If Pool can get their pressing right then I think they’ll be OK. Was good to see Salah back on the scoreboard. Should be good for his confidence.

 

[teddykgb]

This Madrid team is just tough they aren’t anything to fear. It sounds like sour grapes but we outplayed them for 170 minutes and you’ll surely carry play as well. Your only question is Van Dijk. We never would have lost if Dias had been healthy both legs and we hadn’t lost Walker

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It sounds like sour grapes but we outplayed them for 170 minutes and you’ll surely carry play as well.

The crazy thing is that both PSG and Chelsea could say something similar.

Very unusual run to the final.

 

[coremiller]

In a nod to the thread title, The Champions recently started releasing new episodes:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnY1_H3Gi3c&ab_channel=B%2FRFootball

 

[teddykgb]

The crazy thing is that both PSG and Chelsea could say something similar.

Very unusual run to the final.

For sure. And Liverpool could suffer the same fate but I’d be shocked if they struggled to get to grips in midfield and didn’t essentially dominate the game. Madrid have some of the best talent that will ever run at you on the counter that you’ll ever see.

 

[Royal Reader]

Kudos on the thread title. I'm immensely relieved that Citeh managed to take the Prem so that I don't have to root for Real to stop the quad. Now the smugpocalypse has been averted, come on you Reds.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

This Madrid team is just tough they aren’t anything to fear. It sounds like sour grapes but we outplayed them for 170 minutes and you’ll surely carry play as well. Your only question is Van Dijk. We never would have lost if Dias had been healthy both legs and we hadn’t lost Walker

He was warming up pretty vigorously to come in but that got scuppered when Thiago went down. So I think he‘ll be good to go. A whole week off? Sheer luxury.

 

[67YAZ]

The Guardian reporting that Thiago has some sort of Achilles injury, as if a run of the mill hamstring pull wasn’t concerning enough.

 

[SocrManiac]

So, my detailed analysis is "Fuck."

 

[Zososoxfan]

One thing y'all haven't mentioned yet is Mendy. Dude is one of the best LBs in the world, especially defensively. He's strong and fast and plenty good on the ball. Having CBs that aren't completely petrified of a FB getting beat every time is a luxury most clubs don't have against Liverpool.

I think you guys are overstating the quality of Madrid's MF--specifically with Kroos. Modric truly is an ageless wonder. But Kroos cannot keep up with the pace of high profile matches at this point and he can be pressed. Casemiro is still a bawse but he's good for a tactical yellow at every loss of possession and while he's a smart player on a yellow, he's also a liability to draw a second. Whether Carvajal plays is also immense. He's another terrific FB on the other side.

To me this match comes down to Pool's FBs creating offense versus them leaving gaps in behind. Madrid will exploit any such space and they don't need many chances for Benz to bury a couple. While I just sang the praises of Madrid's FBs, I don't think Madrid's MF is fast enough to help cover the overloads Pool does so well. That said, if Madrid can find the right balance defending those overloads and can get the ball to their MFs, then it's off to the races. Madrid plays on such a knife's edge in these even matchups which are so rare for them.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

A weird aspect of the current competitive dynamic in football is that the PL is dominant in terms of quality but the league is also so taxing both mentally and physically that PL sides seem to be usually nowhere near their best at the end of the year. If you look at the two CL finals with all PL teams in the last few years, none of those four teams really seemed to be at the peak of their powers in those matches. City in particular last year was just limping to the finishing line and a shadow of themselves in that final. I see the same thing happening with Liverpool this year after such a massive effort all year fighting across so many competitions and with every match mattering hugely. I think they will still have enough to beat Real Madrid but its a weird equalizer that wasn't really present in past eras when the CL was dominated by sides from other leagues.

 

[Pesky Pole]

So do we have an office pool on which day of the week we get the "Real Madrid to pursue Salah or Mane" story in the press? Seems inevitable now that they lost out on Mbappe.

 

[coremiller]

So do we have an office pool on which day of the week we get the "Real Madrid to pursue Salah or Mane" story in the press? Seems inevitable now that they lost out on Mbappe.

If Liverpool can dump a 30-year-old Mane or Salah on Real for big money it would be tremendous business and they should do it in a heartbeat.

 

[page 2 protege]

Now? https://www.si.com/soccer/liverpool/transfers/reports-suggest-that-real-madrid-are-now-eyeing-up-six-targets-after-kylian-mbappe-snub

 

[Pesky Pole]

Now? https://www.si.com/soccer/liverpool/transfers/reports-suggest-that-real-madrid-are-now-eyeing-up-six-targets-after-kylian-mbappe-snub

Quicker than I thought. Salah, Mane or Sterling? Does Man City ask how much they have to send along with Sterling?

@coremiller - I sorta agree with you. I just wonder how much they could get with one year left on either player's contract?

 

[SocrManiac]

I’d prefer Sterling not leave City. The rest of the world doesn’t need them getting even stronger than just the Haaland signing.

 

[67YAZ]

@coremiller - I sorta agree with you. I just wonder how much they could get with one year left on either player's contract?

My guess given how hard Liverpool negotiate: Mane for £30-35, Salah for £40-45.

Mane is not an elite caliber finisher & very streaky. The move to a false 9 for Liverpool (mirroring his role for Senegal) gives him some very attractive flexibility, but Benzema has the 9 locked down
In Madrid. This might make him more attractive to some of the other top clubs (Juve?).

Salah has a longer history as a world class scorer plus he is currently the most famous Muslim alive. He’s not a marketing powerhouse at Messi/Ronaldo levels, but he’s just behind them. There’s money to be made from Salah.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Vinicius also just had a breakout season at LW whereas Rodrygo has yet to really stake a claim to the RW, heroics against City aside.

I think the player who makes the most sense for Real might be Gnabry, who can play either wing and is still in his prime. But from the Liverpool duo its definitely Salah over Mane.

 

[Kliq]

My guess given how hard Liverpool negotiate: Mane for £30-35, Salah for £40-45.

Mane is not an elite caliber finisher & very streaky. The move to a false 9 for Liverpool (mirroring his role for Senegal) gives him some very attractive flexibility, but Benzema has the 9 locked down
In Madrid. This might make him more attractive to some of the other top clubs (Juve?).

Salah has a longer history as a world class scorer plus he is currently the most famous Muslim alive. He’s not a marketing powerhouse at Messi/Ronaldo levels, but he’s just behind them. There’s money to be made from Salah.

I think Mo Salah is the most consistent, best player in the world.

 

[SocrManiac]

I think Mo Salah is the most consistent, best player in the world.

His AFCON break needs to be considered as well. Not only is he completely absent for 4-6 weeks every other year, he's gassed when he returns. That can be nontrivial.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

My guess given how hard Liverpool negotiate: Mane for £30-35, Salah for £40-45.

Mane is not an elite caliber finisher & very streaky. The move to a false 9 for Liverpool (mirroring his role for Senegal) gives him some very attractive flexibility, but Benzema has the 9 locked down
In Madrid. This might make him more attractive to some of the other top clubs (Juve?).

Salah has a longer history as a world class scorer plus he is currently the most famous Muslim alive. He’s not a marketing powerhouse at Messi/Ronaldo levels, but he’s just behind them. There’s money to be made from Salah.

I don’t think Pool would sell them for that. Given their penchant for letting contracts run out (Gini, Can) I could see them prioritizing one final year instead of selling on short money. And in what world does Gabriel Jesus have a greater transfer value than Mo Salah? I know “final contract year”.

I find the dynamics of footie contracts fascinating. I have argued this before - on one hand the remaining term discount is only applicable if their is limited interest in the player. If there is a bidding war that doesn’t matter. And it also doesn’t matter if the team is willing to let it wind down or - in Mbappe’s case - keep negotiating to the bitter end.

Of course, there is a counter argument that says the limited term gives the player complete control. He can pick and choose his destination and the current club has to accept what ever offer it gets despite other teams offering more.

Now, I think Mane, Salah and Firmino will
all be resolved differently.

Salah : if all you can get is a measly £50m then you have to try to resign him. They will give him what he wants (and they will regret it). The PR hit would be unfathomable if he leaves - shades of Michael Owen to Real Madrid for a bag of soccer balls.

Mane : this is trickier. He had a nice bounce back year but the chance of a serious decline is really high. Sell

Firmino: I don’t know what his market value is but I think they’d prefer to keep him - I’d offer a reasonable term at decent wages. If he declines then let the contract run down.

But , ultimately I think it comes down to Klopp. FSG will do their best to honour his wishes.

 

[SocrManiac]

I agree with you on the Big Two. They need to overpay for Salah, then get what you can for Mané. I have no idea if Mané's big goals have outweighed his missed sitters and where the points stand as a result, but I'd take consistency over flashiness at CF.

Firmino is, as you say, tricky. He strikes me as very much a system guy. He's worth more to Liverpool than he is to other teams. I think both sides know that. Will FSG be ruthless with his salary as a result? I'm guessing he can get more or live in a place more comfortable for him if he wants.

One thing above all else... I gained a ton of faith in the recruitment machine. There have been far more hits than misses over the past few years (MINAMINOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!). Did Michael Edwards build the machine, or was he the machine? It looks like he built it based on the reading that's been available on Liverpool's system, but I'd like to see this proven out with some massive and successful signings this summer, please.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Statements from Salah and Mane in the press this morning seem to confirm the two of your intuitions: Salah said he is definitely staying next year, Mane was more evasive and said there will be discussions after the CL final.

I've mentioned this beforehand but if you look at the best forwards who entered their late 20s in the Premier League since 2000, every single one of them except Jamie Vardy (who had a very weird career trajectory, not playing full time professional football until age 24) experienced a really big decline in effectiveness, availability, or both somewhere between the ages of 29-31 (also a couple that declined even earlier). It's by far the most punishing league in the world for older players and there is no position with a steeper age cliff than forward. Auba last elite year at 30, Aguero last elite year at 30, Van Persie at 29, Rooney/Sanchez/Hazard all at 28, Drogba two kind of crap injury-prone years at 29-30 then a great year at 31 and that was it, Henry last truly great year at 28 but a few decent ones after, Van Nistelrooy last great year at 30, Hasselbaink last great year at 29, Berbatov last great year at 29, Anelka last really good year at 29, Cole last really good year at 28, Shearer probably aged the best of this group but he still basically alternated very good and less-good-to-crap years from 30-34 and even the very good years weren't comparable to his age 23-27 peak.

Point being, Liverpool's top brass are not mugs. I'm sure they know this history and the smart thing to do is to be very wary about relying on (and investing too much in ) forwards aged 30+ in the PL. I wish Arsenal had taken this more into account when they signed Auba to a huge deal for his age 31-33 seasons.

It won't be popular but selling and replacing Mane this summer and then letting Salah play another year then run down his deal may be the smartest course of action. You'd ideally love to resign Salah on favorable terms, like only a two year contract or something. But I'm not sure that is going to be possible.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Awhile back Salah said the contract impasse wasn’t about money. So I guess he didn’t like the term. Guessing FSG offered a sensible three year deal - maybe four - and he wants five. And his indication that he’s staying can be viewed as a warning shot - pay me or I’m running down the contract. Perhaps Real told him to do this - the Mbappe strategy .

FSG may have to frontload the contract to get it done.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

To be fair to Edwards even Minamino wasn’t a flop if viewed as a failed investment. He only cost £7m so it was very much a buy low transfer. I imagine they could easily get there money back. And he performed well this year in both the cup competitions.

I guess the true cost was opportunity - if he wasn’t around they would have got someone who was less of a project.

 

[67YAZ]

Klopp today indicated that Fab, VVD, ad Gomez are all back in training and that Thiago has a chance at being ready for the match.

 

[swiftaw]

Also, with 5 subs allowed you can take more of a risk by starting a half-fit player.

 

[SocrManiac]

So, if Thiago is marginally available, I think my preference would be to save the bullet for if you need it. Start a midfield of Fab/Hendo/Jones. Have Thiago available to start the second half if needed.

 

[swiftaw]

I would think Keita would get the nod over Jones.

 

[SocrManiac]

I would think Keita would get the nod over Jones.

He will, but I don’t have to like it.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Rumour has it Thiago is back in training so hopefully we will be spared a Keita start. If he can play I think you get what you can out of him and then adjust depending on the game situation.

 

[67YAZ]

Tomorrow I’m looking for Liverpool to start fast. They have been doing quite the opposite lately, but I think with a full week to recover, scheme, and train plus the adrenaline rush of the final will lead to a classic 20 minutes of heavy metal football to kick things off.

Madrid are going to have plenty of chances with counter attacks launched behind Trent & Robbo plus whatever magic Benzema will conjure. But I’m expecting an immediate Liverpool push to set a tone.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Smoking hot take: The champions league song has gotten old and it is time for a new theme.

 

[allstonite]

Smoking hot take: The champions league song has gotten old and it is time for a new theme.

“THE CHOOOOOOMPIOOOOOONS”

 

[Kliq]

I don't have any love for LFC or Real; but I find myself rooting for Gareth Bale. Yeah he probably deserves it the least, but it would be funny to this Spurs fan if Bale basically took a bunch of shit for years at Madrid, and a million complaints of him about not caring enough about playing, and then delivered another great performance en route to winning his fourth UCL with the club.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I just hope it is a good game. Would have been interesting if Villa could have hung on for a bit longer at Citeh to see Liverpool play for the quadruple, but that wasn’t to be.

 

[Kliq]

The last thing this society needs is the Liverpool fanbase witnessing a quadruple.

 

[teddykgb]

The last thing this society needs is the Liverpool fanbase witnessing a quadruple.

The real sportswashing is City sparing everyone that fate

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I clicked some links on one of those clickbaity websites and it took me down a rabbit hole about how the Liverpool supporters are the most despised fans in England. It’s all very abstract for me, living 7,000 miles away or whatever. When Donovan and Howard were on Everton, I supported them and I guess was supposed to hate the Reds but again it is just too abstract to me. I don’t hang with footie fans or argue on message boards enough to have supporters of any team get under my skin.

Salah is a beautiful player to watch and I kind of fall for Klopp’s shtick. So they don’t bother me. I naturally root for the underdog so likely will be leaning toward Real Madrid tomorrow, but the game would have been more interesting if Liverpool were playing for the quadruple. Still should be plenty of drama but would have added spice.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

A big part of it is simply that the historically most successful, wealthiest, and most popular clubs (Liverpool and United) are also the most hated by non-supporters in the UK. Lots of people hate the Yankees and Lakers too.

I think Liverpool also have a reputation for a particularly grating combination of being the historical 900 pound gorilla of British football yet pretending to be some kind of plucky underdog as well as a club with a more special link to their community than others, which British supporters of other clubs find obnoxious.

Its probably the least important but some people do seem to genuinely dislike the scouse as well.

Not trying to start a fight with any Liverpool supporters here or saying this is all fair. But having spent a good amount of time on other football boards with mainly Brits, this is my sense of the situation.

 

[SocrManiac]

I don’t know if it’s part of growing up (ie, getting old), more interaction with other clubs’ fans, or some other phenomenon, but I find I get more passionate (ie, angry) about other teams more than I did years ago. The way I used to feel about the Yankees, for example, seems to be roughly the norm for any non-rooting interest when they’re playing my side.

Certain teams I’ve rooted for are easy to hate. Juventus is probably the prime example, and I get it. I really do. The success, the court of public opinion about calicopoly (thanks, Inter!), buying most younger Italian (or Serie A) talent… It all follows.

Growing up, I both hated and admired Real Madrid. I never rooted for them, but I was in awe of the names they had in the side. I guess that ramped a bit when they bought Zidane, but hey, it all worked out. When Madrid fans applauded Del Piero for driving a CL stake in their hearts in their own stadium, it still felt like football was the primary thing, the teams were almost secondary.

I think most of the newer crop of footy fans perceive ManU as the evil empire. They are (were?) it for the EPL, but before that, yeah, it was Liverpool. But hey, moving forward, oil money is likely to unite footy fans in their hatred interests. Yay?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

A big part of it is simply that the historically most successful, wealthiest, and most popular clubs (Liverpool and United) are also the most hated by non-supporters in the UK. Lots of people hate the Yankees and Lakers too.

I think Liverpool also have a reputation for a particularly grating combination of being the historical 900 pound gorilla of British football yet pretending to be some kind of plucky underdog as well as a club with a more special link to their community than others, which British supporters of other clubs find obnoxious.

Its probably the least important but some people do seem to genuinely dislike the scouse as well.”

Not trying to start a fight with any Liverpool supporters here or saying this is all fair. But having spent a good amount of time on other football boards with mainly Brits, this is my sense of the situation.

From a Liverpool fans perspective - I actually agree with most of this. Of course, not growing up in the UK and acquiring my allegiance as a young adult I was pretty oblivious to the more tribal aspects of British football. I get what you are saying and it makes sense. But there is a real political element that fuels some of this.

I found the recent kerfuffle around God save the Queen to be very illustrative. For those who don’t know, at the FA Cup final at Wembley a segment of Liverpool fans booed GSTQ.(The reasons are long, complicated and ,in my view completely justified - google “Margaret Thatcher Liverpool” ).
When asked about the booing Klopp said “maybe they had a good reason” or somesuch. In contrast Boris Johnson roundly condemned the booing as utterly unacceptable. The same Boris Johnson who refused to condemn fans booing players taking the knee . Let’s just say the relationship between Scousers/Liverpool and the rest of southern England - particularly London is not the greatest.

All of this accentuates the Us vs Them and good guys vs bad guys themes that sport relies on.

LFC is owned by a distant , relatively disconnected American billionaire who never , in a thousand years could understand the connection poor working class kids have for the local 11. (Red or Blue). To LFC it’s just a giant commercial enterprise. But like all the rest of the owners of the mega rich clubs they cling to and pretend it’s the same as it was 50 years ago - or even in the 19th century where it truly was my town against your town.

 

[the1andonly3003]

I'm surprised FSG didn't sell tickets to a viewing party at Fenway

 

[nolasoxfan]

I'm surprised FSG didn't sell tickets to a viewing party at Fenway

To be played in between today’s doubleheader?

 

[the1andonly3003]

To be played in between today’s doubleheader?

oh oops, thought Sox were still on the road....

I'm surprised that Peter Drury/Jim Beglin are not calling this match anywhere

CBS has Clive Tyldesley/Rob Green
Talksport: Jim Proudfoot/Andy Townsend
World Feed: Tony Jones/Don Goodman
BT Sport (free on BT Sport YouTube channel with UK geo-location): Darren Fletcher/Steve McManaman/Glenn Hoddle

 

[rguilmar]

Lineups are out, and it looks like both are starting their ideal 11. For Real, this means Valverde over Rodrigo, who will be given his moment along with Camavinga at some point.

Not a statistical analysis, but these are just the games Madrid win. I’m not just talking about this year’s run to the final, but also historically. They’re often not even the best team in Spain and still win the UCL (and this year they are regrettably the best team in Spain).

 

[Pesky Pole]

Thiago and Fabinho both in the starting lineup. Diaz, Mane, Salah up front and Konate over Matip with VVD.