Wherefore art thou, Blake?

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,785
It seems likely that they believe that Swihart simply isn’t a legitimate major league catcher. And if that’s the case, they are probably not the only ones who feel that way, so he probably has little to no trade value. So what should they do with him, if this is in fact the case?
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
It seems likely that they believe that Swihart simply isn’t a legitimate major league catcher. And if that’s the case, they are probably not the only ones who feel that way, so he probably has little to no trade value. So what should they do with him, if this is in fact the case?
Blake Swihart was the starting catcher for two months on a team that played at a playoff level win pace. I'm still waiting for anyone who can point me to the news article, scouting report, or main board thread where people discussed how awful he was on defense over that stretch of games.

The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.

It would not surprise me if Swihart's catching metrics aren't very good post injury, however. Maybe some team will eventually benefit from the stupidity of the Red Sox handling of Swihart, or maybe Swihart's career was forever derailed by the injury that directly resulted from that stupidity. Either way, the Red Sox blew it.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,589
Canton, MA
It seems likely that they believe that Swihart simply isn’t a legitimate major league catcher. And if that’s the case, they are probably not the only ones who feel that way, so he probably has little to no trade value. So what should they do with him, if this is in fact the case?
If they believe that to be the case, they should DFA him. Right now he is taking up a valuable roster spot.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
35,858
The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.
who exactly promoted this "fiction"? All of us are pretty upset with Vaz's play and I can't imagine anyone thinks that extension looks good right now.
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
16,141
Michigan
Blake Swihart was the starting catcher for two months on a team that played at a playoff level win pace.
Exactly. It wasn’t that long ago that “Swihart or Vazquez as starter?” Was a legit debate. And a bunch of folks thought Swihart was the better answer.

The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.
Yes.

It would not surprise me if Swihart's catching metrics aren't very good post injury, however.
Maybe, but hard to tell, because he never catches. And Vaz’s defense seems to have significantly declined post TJ-surgery, but not necessarily for that reason. Seems to me he’s become sloppy since winning the starting job.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
22,566
Maine
If they believe that to be the case, they should DFA him. Right now he is taking up a valuable roster spot.
Is he though? Is there someone in the minors who is champing at the bit to get on the roster but can't because Swihart is blocking him? Is there an obvious and easy trade to be made if only they didn't have Swihart's dead weight taking up the spot?

A week from now when Pedroia's ready, maybe Swihart is in a position of taking up a valuable roster spot. Maybe because who knows what happens between now and then...someone could get hurt or someone is already playing hurt and the move to get Pedroia on the roster is to DL them instead of moving Swihart.

I can understand Swihart asking for a trade. Being in his spot has to suck for someone who's always been a regular starter no matter what level he was at. But Dombrowski is right, he's the 25th man and he's getting about the right amount of playing time for that spot on the roster. He's the back-up to the back-up at about 6 different positions and no one ahead of him is getting hurt. If it's not him, it would be someone else (Holt or Nunez once Pedroia returns). Outside of within Swihart himself, I don't see the urgency to move him off the roster.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,785
Blake Swihart was the starting catcher for two months on a team that played at a playoff level win pace. I'm still waiting for anyone who can point me to the news article, scouting report, or main board thread where people discussed how awful he was on defense over that stretch of games.

The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.

It would not surprise me if Swihart's catching metrics aren't very good post injury, however. Maybe some team will eventually benefit from the stupidity of the Red Sox handling of Swihart, or maybe Swihart's career was forever derailed by the injury that directly resulted from that stupidity. Either way, the Red Sox blew it.
At some point, I don't know when, maybe during that period or maybe afterward, they quietly decided he's not a legit catcher. There was no press release. It's pretty obvious that this is what they think -- the notion that they think Swihart can do the job but won't play him because they don't want to acknowledge that Vazquez can't is sill. Teams make mistakes and move on from them all the time. That's why they are paying Sandoval a medium sized fortune while he plays for SF.

The injury was an unforeseeable, freak accident. I'd bet that playing LF is far less likely to lead to injury than catching. Shit happens sometimes.
 
Jun 27, 2006
66
He caught alot in spring training, so the current braintrust has recent observations on which to make thier decision about his catching ability. Couldn't it simply be that they consider him an inferior defensive catcher to Vaz and Leon but a better option than Butler in the case of injury? So until something forces a descision, whats best for the team is exactly what they are doing.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,636
Blake Swihart was the starting catcher for two months on a team that played at a playoff level win pace. I'm still waiting for anyone who can point me to the news article, scouting report, or main board thread where people discussed how awful he was on defense over that stretch of games.

The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.

It would not surprise me if Swihart's catching metrics aren't very good post injury, however. Maybe some team will eventually benefit from the stupidity of the Red Sox handling of Swihart, or maybe Swihart's career was forever derailed by the injury that directly resulted from that stupidity. Either way, the Red Sox blew it.
I'm not sure that the people evaluating talent on the team should care about "news reports" and "main board threads" regarding Swihart's skills. The only fiction is the one you keep peddling, that this is somehow about more than just "the people running the team must not think Swihart is a very good catcher." Maybe they didn't think much of his catching pre-injury either. They had a long look at him in 2015.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
70,898
Is he though? Is there someone in the minors who is champing at the bit to get on the roster but can't because Swihart is blocking him? Is there an obvious and easy trade to be made if only they didn't have Swihart's dead weight taking up the spot?

A week from now when Pedroia's ready, maybe Swihart is in a position of taking up a valuable roster spot. Maybe because who knows what happens between now and then...someone could get hurt or someone is already playing hurt and the move to get Pedroia on the roster is to DL them instead of moving Swihart.

I can understand Swihart asking for a trade. Being in his spot has to suck for someone who's always been a regular starter no matter what level he was at. But Dombrowski is right, he's the 25th man and he's getting about the right amount of playing time for that spot on the roster. He's the back-up to the back-up at about 6 different positions and no one ahead of him is getting hurt. If it's not him, it would be someone else (Holt or Nunez once Pedroia returns). Outside of within Swihart himself, I don't see the urgency to move him off the roster.
I can’t figure out why the fact that there is no third catcher behind Swihart isn’t dispositive if this debate, even if it sucks for the guy.
 

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
964
Connecticut
The injury was an unforeseeable, freak accident. I'd bet that playing LF is far less likely to lead to injury than catching. Shit happens sometimes.
Especially since he played mostly SS in high school, outfield for Team USA and wasn't fully converted to catcher until in the RS farm system. This narrative that his development was destroyed by playing the outfield, resulting in an injury which destroyed his development as a catcher is creative projection. The injury required surgery, but was not one which be career ending. Athletes get hurt, they often play positions other than their primary position and prospects often don't live up to expectations. All those things happen, but it doesn't mean those things are causal.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
9,726
Speier on Swihart.

Even at a time when evaluators lament the state of the catching position, the perception that the Sox may be forced to deal Swihart as a distressed asset has driven down what some teams might be willing to offer Boston. The fact that the Sox haven’t given him time behind the plate this year likewise has diminished what teams might be prepared to offer.

“People would have interest. We would have interest. But if he’s so good, why isn’t he playing? . . . I can’t stick my neck out on this kid because I haven’t seen him play,” said one National League evaluator.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/05/16/blake-swihart-agent-asks-red-sox-for-trade/xgwhK8kWbAHhzX7igeldjP/story.html
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,961
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Especially since he played mostly SS in high school, outfield for Team USA and wasn't fully converted to catcher until in the RS farm system. This narrative that his development was destroyed by playing the outfield, resulting in an injury which destroyed his development as a catcher is creative projection. The injury required surgery, but was not one which be career ending. Athletes get hurt, they often play positions other than their primary position and prospects often don't live up to expectations. All those things happen, but it doesn't mean those things are causal.
It was a freak injury. I think the switching position issue gets brought up more in the context of the Sox bobbling him about. We've seen positional switches derail offensive performance before. We've also seen that catchers may take longer to develop a full catching skill set, and/or may take longer to develop offensively.

Swihart may have been better situated to make those switches than the average player/prospect. But I'd be more comfortable in the team assessing his skills if he had simply stuck to one position instead of being moved about, then injured, then moved about.

I mean it's not like the Sox haven't correctly evaluated players in the recent years, or given them the coaching to help them do well. (I'm looking at you, Chili Davis.)
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,636
I can’t figure out why the fact that there is no third catcher behind Swihart isn’t dispositive if this debate, even if it sucks for the guy.
Its absolutely dispositive as for his current predicament.

The underlying issue about why, as long as he's here anyway and neither catcher is setting the world on fire, he hasn't got any PT is a bit different.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
70,898
Its absolutely dispositive as for his current predicament.

The underlying issue about why, as long as he's here anyway and neither catcher is setting the world on fire, he hasn't got any PT is a bit different.
True. I've been going with: Cora thinks he sucks.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
I can’t figure out why the fact that there is no third catcher behind Swihart isn’t dispositive if this debate, even if it sucks for the guy.
Dan Butler wants a word with you.

Yes, he'd have to be added to the 40-man, but then if they traded Swihart for a fringe prospect (which seems like the best-case scenario at this point) they'd have room on the 40-man. Yes, he has no options, but then neither does Swihart. The only meaningful difference between them, as far as I can see, is that the Sox think Swihart is better. In which case--given that their current catchers are performing about as you'd expect Butler to--we're back to the question of why Swihart isn't playing.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
70,898
Dan Butler wants a word with you.

Yes, he'd have to be added to the 40-man, but then if they traded Swihart for a fringe prospect (which seems like the best-case scenario at this point) they'd have room on the 40-man. Yes, he has no options, but then neither does Swihart. The only meaningful difference between them, as far as I can see, is that the Sox think Swihart is better. In which case--given that their current catchers are performing about as you'd expect Butler to--we're back to the question of why Swihart isn't playing.
Because Cora thinks he sucks?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Blake Swihart was the starting catcher for two months on a team that played at a playoff level win pace. I'm still waiting for anyone who can point me to the news article, scouting report, or main board thread where people discussed how awful he was on defense over that stretch of games.

The fact that none of those things exist means that the "Blake Swihart is a bad catcher" narrative is a fiction designed to justify the decision to give the job to Vazquez.

It would not surprise me if Swihart's catching metrics aren't very good post injury, however. Maybe some team will eventually benefit from the stupidity of the Red Sox handling of Swihart, or maybe Swihart's career was forever derailed by the injury that directly resulted from that stupidity. Either way, the Red Sox blew it.

There were plenty of scouting reports that questioned Swiharts defense. They always read "should develop into an above average catcher" not that he already was one. He was not a good defensive minor league catcher, it was all based on projection.

Plus opinions can change with a bigger sample size and injuries can permanently hamper performance. You are going back to 2015 and acting like nothing has changed since then. You also act like Swihart couldn't have just been a bust. Prospects bust.

The only real argument you make is that they should have traded him before his value plummeted.

3 years in baseball is an eternity.

edit: Plus another thing that changed was Dave Dombrowski became the GM of the Boston Redsox and he could obviously have a very different opinion than Ben Cherrington. With no other options, he just let Swihart play out the games because they were already out of the playoffs and in last place. The season was already over, so they had nothing to lose by seeing what Swihart brought to the table. Maybe they decided during that time, they didn't like him.
 
Last edited:

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,844
So the team needs a reliever, Swihart wants a trade, and no one in the league knows his value because they haven't seen him perform behind the plate. It seems asinine, at this point, to refuse to give him a few starts at catcher. Do they think Vasquez is really so fragile that he can't handle being benched for a week? It seems pretty clear that Vasquez, like JBJ, are just lousy hitters right now. Neither is "on the verge of coming out of it". Maybe they'll figure it out eventually, but not any time soon. With Pedey's timeline now less than 2 weeks, you've got to demo Blake now before you are forced to let him go for for a trunk full of sunflower seeds.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
The team finished 78-84 and you are talking about how they were at playoff level win pace. That is just absurd. When the pressure is off and you are already out of the playoffs... the wins and losses mean nothing.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,961
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Dan Butler wants a word with you.

Yes, he'd have to be added to the 40-man, but then if they traded Swihart for a fringe prospect (which seems like the best-case scenario at this point) they'd have room on the 40-man. Yes, he has no options, but then neither does Swihart. The only meaningful difference between them, as far as I can see, is that the Sox think Swihart is better. In which case--given that their current catchers are performing about as you'd expect Butler to--we're back to the question of why Swihart isn't playing.
We also signed Mike Ohlman this year. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t533&player_id=572000#/career/R/hitting/2018/ALL

He looks like he hit fairly well in AAA. These suggest a marginal defensive catcher with decent batting value coming from power:
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/10/15587444/scouting-report-mike-ohlman-c-toronto-blue-jays
https://redbirdrants.com/2016/01/15/st-louis-cardinals-2016-top-prospects-17-mike-ohlman/
https://clutchlings.blogspot.com/2016/11/what-to-expect-from-mike-ohlman.html

How do options work for someone in his situation?
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
There were plenty of scouting reports that questioned Swiharts defense. They always read "should develop into an above average catcher" not that he already was one. He was not a good defensive minor league catcher, it was all based on projection.
This is revisionist history.

Here's what John Sickels had to say when Swihart was promoted in 2015:

"Swihart is highly-regarded defensively: he is very effective at controlling the running game, throwing out 39% of runners in his minor league career. He is a sound receiver as well: amazingly, he gave up zero passed balls in 97 games behind the plate in 2014. He hasn't maintained that impossibly perfect pace this year, coughing up four PBs for Pawtucket already, but there seems little doubt that he is ready for major league competition with the glove. Scouting reports regarding his leadership skills and field generalship abilities are also glowing."

And Christopher Crawford and Ben Carsley at BP:

"There were many who believed Swihart was going to have to move to a corner outfield position, but he’s shown he’s very capable of handling the backstop position. His receiving skills aren’t perfect but his soft hands and improving feel for the position make him more than adequate at blocking balls and framing. His athleticism and quick reflexes also help him keep runners at bay, and that, along with an arm that is borderline plus-plus, allows him to be an asset at keeping all but the fleetest of foot from attempting steals. There’s still some work to be done, but barring an injury, there’s no reason to think that Swihart isn’t going to stay behind the plate long term."

That's just the first two I found.

I mean, I'm not saying anybody thought Swihart was a finished product behind the plate -- 23-year-olds rarely are -- but it wasn't "all projection" either--people seemed to think he was already good enough to play the position in the majors.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
The 2nd scouting report literally says "there were many who believed Swihart was going to have to move to a corner outfield spot."

There was plenty of doubt.

edit: But yeah, some people were pretty high on him at the Catcher position. It's always mixed.
 
Last edited:

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,636
True. I've been going with: Cora thinks he sucks.
I think that's just as obvious as why he's still here. Both DD and Levangie have some prior history-based knowledge, and Cora had his own eyes this spring. They just dont think he's good enough for better than 3rd string on this team.


Dan Butler wants a word with you.
Yes, he'd have to be added to the 40-man, but then if they traded Swihart for a fringe prospect (which seems like the best-case scenario at this point) they'd have room on the 40-man. Yes, he has no options, but then neither does Swihart. The only meaningful difference between them, as far as I can see, is that the Sox think Swihart is better. In which case--given that their current catchers are performing about as you'd expect Butler to--we're back to the question of why Swihart isn't playing.
Not saying it should be dispositive, but another possibly meaningful difference is that Swihart can play OF in a pinch.
With Holt backing up all 3 IFs, I guess having another nominal OF is handy. As mentioned, Pedroia's return is likely to be the decision time on that, as it will free up Holt a bit for the 5th OF spot. So, better than Butler, not good enough to play ahead of Leon and Vazquez; but theoretically useful enough to hang onto until they really have no choice? It ain't much.
 
Last edited:

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
22,566
Maine
So the team needs a reliever, Swihart wants a trade, and no one in the league knows his value because they haven't seen him perform behind the plate.
They don't need a reliever. They've got a solid group and some guys on the shuttle that haven't even been needed yet. And let's be realistic, Swihart isn't bringing back a pitcher any better than what those they already have, so I fail to see how 2+2=4 and they (Dombrowski & Cora) are too dumb to see it.

Ohlman has no options remaining. So he'd be in the same boat as Butler were he to be added to the roster: he'd need to be DFA to be removed from the 25-man. And while people will point out they're already carrying three catchers with Swihart, neither Ohlman or Butler have the positional flexibility that Swihart does. They might be able to play some 1B, but that's about it. At least with Swihart, if they need someone to play LF or 1B or even 3B or 2B, Swihart can do it. Which is why he's been sitting in that 25th roster spot all season rather than moved for a bag of balls. They may not have needed it so far, but his flexibility is a nice asset.
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,844
Christian Vasquez 2018:

WAR -1.0
OPS+ 19

You'd pretty much have to be playing in high-heels to be worse than this
 

bluefenderstrat

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2002
2,614
Tralfamadore
Right, the Red Sox have a starting quality catcher who can hit just sitting on the bench behind Sandy Leon and Vasquez because management can't admit a mistake.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Right, the Red Sox have a starting quality catcher who can hit just sitting on the bench behind Sandy Leon and Vasquez because management can't admit a mistake.
The same management that is paying Pablo Sandoval to play for the Giants.

Signing Christian Vazquez long term was a mistake. It doesn't mean the correct answer is Blake Swihart. The answer is probably outside the organization and we don't really have the pieces to trade for it.

All 3 of our catchers suck, even relative to other catchers.
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,844
Certainly stubbornness can be a factor in managers' decisions. See Chris young, 2017. Obviously I don't know if Blake would be a disaster behind the plate and neither does anyone else. But he's done it before. I do know that Vasquez can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. You roll the dice with Blake for a handful of games before you have to dfa him. Maybe he knocks in a couple runs. Maybe he increases his trade value. And yeah, maybe he coughs up a few runs. That's a risk. But the status quo is historically unproductive.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
28,840
Newton
All 3 of our catchers suck, even relative to other catchers.
Unless that’s not what the FO is looking at here.

It’s not hard to conceive of a dynamic where the FO believes that the job of the catching position, first and foremost, is to maximize the results of the starting rotation. Which makes a certain amount of sense, as Sale/Price/Porcello/Pom/EdRo is the team's clear strength and has one of the highest ceilings in MLB. The almost nonexistent offensive performance of Vaz/Leon suggests to me that the FO may in fact view this responsibility to be so far and away the top priority for the catchers given the rotation talent that any change in the catching position would have to be as a result of injury and injury alone.

In that scenario, Blake doesn't have to be the worst catcher in baseball – simply not good enough of an improvement with the bat to risk any drop-off in performance from the rotation. Of which there would surely be some. How much, I have no idea.
 

Marco

New Member
Apr 18, 2018
34
Career Hitting

Vazquez: 850pa, .300babip, 68wrc+ (MILB: 2193pa, .312babip, 107wrc+)
Swihart: 422pa, .344babip, 87wrc+ (MILB: 1716pa, .316babip, 102wrc+)
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Unless that’s not what the FO is looking at here.

It’s not hard to conceive of a dynamic where the FO believes that the job of the catching position, first and foremost, is to maximize the results of the starting rotation. Which makes a certain amount of sense, as Sale/Price/Porcello/Pom/EdRo is the team's clear strength and has one of the highest ceilings in MLB. The almost nonexistent offensive performance of Vaz/Leon suggests to me that the FO may in fact view this responsibility to be so far and away the top priority for the catchers given the rotation talent that any change in the catching position would have to be as a result of injury and injury alone.

In that scenario, Blake doesn't have to be the worst catcher in baseball – simply not good enough of an improvement with the bat to risk any drop-off in performance from the rotation. Of which there would surely be some. How much, I have no idea.
This could be true but the stats we have access to suggest the catching duo is pretty anemic. According to Baseball-reference, we are 30/30 in the catching position for wins above average, at -1.7. The 29th rank team is at -1.0. If that holds up all season long, by the time the year is over, we will be about 3 wins worse than the 29th ranked team, and close to 7 wins worse than an average team from the catching position alone. That is a lot.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
28,840
Newton
This could be true but the stats we have access to suggest the catching duo is pretty anemic. According to Baseball-reference, we are 30/30 in the catching position for wins above average, at -1.7. The 29th rank team is at -1.0. If that holds up all season long, by the time the year is over, we will be about 3 wins worse than the 29th ranked team, and close to 7 wins worse than an average team from the catching position alone. That is a lot.
Perhaps the FO expects some bounce back offensively from Vaz/Leon -- I think that's fair based on historical averages and the fact that it's two guys, not one.

But how are "wins above average" calculated for the catching position? Is pitching performance included? I imagine that would be difficult to figure out -- Chris Sale's personal catcher is going to look a lot better than EdRo's, and it's not like there's somebody else who's caught Chris Sale to compare him to. But I'm not sure how you measure a catcher's performance without taking into account the #1 reason they have the job: to help the pitchers perform to or above expectations.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,265
Florida
Right, the Red Sox have a starting quality catcher who can hit just sitting on the bench behind Sandy Leon and Vasquez because management can't admit a mistake.
Sure, if you are basing that "starting quality" evaluation today on the Blake Wants to Rake fluff piece/speculation, the misconception that his bat didn't look like complete crap after the first couple of startup ST games, and outdated scouting reports made at a time when Henry Owens (who I believe was ranked ahead of Swihart) was still being projected to have a promising MLB future.
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,844
Statistically speaking, the 9 hole for the Red Sox is of a greater importance than it is on a normal team simply because you're hitting in front of a guy with an 1.100 OPS. So the OBP of the #9 hitter in the lineup should be factored with a "Mookie Multiplier" to determine the likelihood of a PA producing a run. It's not inconceivable to consider a .300 OBP out of the #9 hitter on the Sox producing as many runs as a .350 OBP from the #9 hitter on a Mookie-less team.
 

bluefenderstrat

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2002
2,614
Tralfamadore
Sure, if you are basing that "starting quality" evaluation today on the Blake Wants to Rake fluff piece/speculation, the misconception that his bat didn't look like complete crap after the first couple of startup ST games, and outdated scouting reports made at a time when Henry Owens (who I believe was ranked ahead of Swihart) was still being projected to have a promising MLB future.
To be clear, that post was sarcasm. I don't believe that Swihart is a viable starting catcher or that the Sox would bury him despite that possibility because they gave Vasquez an extension. As far as screwing up his development over the years, maybe in an alternate universe he's Buster Posey lite, but it sure ain't happening in this one.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Sure, if you are basing that "starting quality" evaluation today on the Blake Wants to Rake fluff piece/speculation, the misconception that his bat didn't look like complete crap after the first couple of startup ST games, and outdated scouting reports made at a time when Henry Owens (who I believe was ranked ahead of Swihart) was still being projected to have a promising MLB future.
Check your sarcasm meter.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
There were plenty of scouting reports that questioned Swiharts defense. They always read "should develop into an above average catcher" not that he already was one. He was not a good defensive minor league catcher, it was all based on projection.

Plus opinions can change with a bigger sample size and injuries can permanently hamper performance. You are going back to 2015 and acting like nothing has changed since then. You also act like Swihart couldn't have just been a bust. Prospects bust.

The only real argument you make is that they should have traded him before his value plummeted.

3 years in baseball is an eternity.

edit: Plus another thing that changed was Dave Dombrowski became the GM of the Boston Redsox and he could obviously have a very different opinion than Ben Cherrington. With no other options, he just let Swihart play out the games because they were already out of the playoffs and in last place. The season was already over, so they had nothing to lose by seeing what Swihart brought to the table. Maybe they decided during that time, they didn't like him.
All of what you write would be very reasonable, but would make it even more collassally stupid that they didn’t trade him during the winter of 15-16.

I also agree that the ankle injury could have made him significantly less athletic over the whole post-injury period to date and a much worse catcher. Blocking balls, etc, without your normal springs would be more difficult. To me, this is the most likely explanation for the past few years of frustration and the Red Sox commitment to the two black holes currently occupying the catching position.

As I said on the day they sent Swihart down and promoted Vazquez, you could make an argument for committing to either one of them. But before that comitment was announced publicly, the “loser” should have been traded to the highest bidder. Swihart maximum value was as a catcher. If they wanted an outfielder in 2016, they could have traded Swihart for a very very good one.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
All of what you write would be very reasonable, but would make it even more collassally stupid that they didn’t trade him during the winter of 15-16.

I also agree that the ankle injury could have made him significantly less athletic over the whole post-injury period to date and a much worse catcher. Blocking balls, etc, without your normal springs would be more difficult. To me, this is the most likely explanation for the past few years of frustration and the Red Sox commitment to the two black holes currently occupying the catching position.

As I said on the day they sent Swihart down and promoted Vazquez, you could make an argument for committing to either one of them. But before that comitment was announced publicly, the “loser” should have been traded to the highest bidder. Swihart maximum value was as a catcher. If they wanted an outfielder in 2016, they could have traded Swihart for a very very good one.
They definitely mishandled him as a trading chip but that doesn't mean anything at all when you evaluate Blake Swihart as a player in 2018. Even if what you say is true and the organization just made excuses to justify Christian Vazquez's contract and the Blake Swihart can't catch stories were complete fiction, those stories could very much be non fiction now due to injury.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
61,111
San Andreas Fault
Christian Vasquez 2018:

WAR -1.0
OPS+ 19

You'd pretty much have to be playing in high-heels to be worse than this
Last year he slashed 290/.330/.404, not horrible for a catcher. Maybe Cora feels he’ll still come around. At 27 years old, he shouldn’t be anywhere near done yet. I still say he looks a bit tubby, which, however, you’d think would affect his fielding more than his hitting.

Edit, as for Blake, this is a true enigma. In 2016, he did start 6 games at catcher, and had 3 passed balls and 3 caught stealing against. I remember some of the passed balls being bad effort or bad technique on his part. Don’t know if Cora or his position coach have seen those and are holding them against him. SSS of course.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,971
Last year he slashed 290/.330/.404, not horrible for a catcher. Maybe Cora feels he’ll still come around. At 27 years old, he shouldn’t be anywhere near done yet. I still say he looks a bit tubby, which, however, you’d think would affect his fielding more than his hitting.
He might be another guy for whom the launch angle revamp isn't working.

Looking at Vaz's Statcast metrics, three things pop out:
1. His average launch angle has jumped from 7.9 in 2017 to 10.4 this year.
2. Perhaps relatedly, he's under the ball 28.7 percent of the time, compared to 20.7 percent last year. There's a bit more hard contact, but he's popping up more than twice the rate he did last year.
3. Pitchers are throwing him a lot more sliders, and he's doing nothing with them. His chase contact has plummeted from 75.3% to 64.1%. His modest productivity against breaking pitches last year has completely tanked, from .293 wOBA to .159 wOBA in 2018.

In plain terms, it seems like he's attempted to revamp his swing, and subsequently lost the ability to flare breaking balls into right field for base hits, arguably his best offensive skill.

He put up a .376 wOBA hitting the ball up the middle and to the opposite way last year (185 PAs). This year he's at .149 wOBA, with no appreciable difference in directional batted ball splits.
 

Oppo

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2009
1,576
Wellington Castillo to be suspended 80 games for PED, CWS could give Swihart a good look at playing time.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
80,709
Wellington Castillo to be suspended 80 games for PED, CWS could give Swihart a good look at playing time.
Who do you want back, Jace Fry?

No chance we're getting Moncada back and they don't have much talent otherwise.