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I thought this was funny.
I thought this was funny.
There's like 6 active players who are no-doubt HOF'ers. He's one of them.I like this ballplayer.
He is good.
6?There's like 6 active players who are no-doubt HOF'ers. He's one of them.
You forgot a certain Japanese superstar, assuming he isn't actually some sort of problem gambler.6?
Trout, Freeman, Harper, Betts, Goldschmidt, Votto, are locks (at least I think they are). I'd even put Altuve in there. Among pitchers, Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Kimbrel they're also all locks.
Soto's only played 7 seasons. He's not a no-doubter, just like Judge, or Stanton, or Acuna, or Arenado are. And for pitchers, I'd put Sale, deGrom (crazy that he only has 84 wins, but I think so long has he can get to 110 in his career he has a shot -- 2 CYA and played on some terrible teams), Jansen and Cole on the outside as of now. All these guys in the second tier have to stay healthy for a while longer to get in.
Well yes him too.You forgot a certain Japanese superstar, assuming he isn't actually some sort of problem gambler.
Also, Sox fans won't like it, but this dude is absolutely on that track.
It would be, but I don't know. Days like yesterday make me feel me feel like he is more likely to stay a Yankee.It’s going to be so funny when he signs with the Mets.
He's interesting. 7 consecutive top 5 Cy Young finishes without any firsts. The only guy with more Cy Young "shares" while never winning is Adam Wainwright (Schill is 3rd).How is Sale in the Hall of Fame conversation?
Waino retire right? Does he have a shot?He's interesting. 7 consecutive top 5 Cy Young finishes without any firsts. The only guy with more Cy Young "shares" while never winning is Adam Wainwright (Schill is 3rd).
As it is now I don't think he gets in but if he has a nice little resurgence in Atlanta with some postseason glory, I could see it.
I think he’s borderline; that last terrible year didn’t help him. I think he’s in the group of guys like Jon Lester who weren’t quite as good as the Scherzer / Greinke / Verlander / Kershaw, who are locks. Maybe they make it in by some veterans committee years down the road; since after those four guys mentioned above, not sure what SP will ever get in.Waino retire right? Does he have a shot?
My instinct is no, but if 200 wins becomes the new 300? Him v Sale is classic quality v quantity:Waino retire right? Does he have a shot?
Believe it or not, with 4-5 more normal, healthy-ish years, he probably gets to 3000 Ks, which is still one of those numbers that gets people in.How is Sale in the Hall of Fame conversation?
Ramirez has always been a plus defender, has four Top 5 MVP seasons and will likely retire as the 2nd best position player (behind Jim Thome) in Cleveland history, while spending his career at positions that are underrepresented in Cooperstown. He also stands a good chance of an "all with one team" boost. He still needs to compile some career stats, but if he hasn't struck you as a Hall of Famer, you haven't been paying attention.The interesting cases, to me, will be Votto, Greinke, and Jose Ramirez. In my Hall there is definitely a case for Votto and Greinke but Jose Ramirez strikes me as a bit of the modern day Bobby Abreu. I know he puts up big numbers consistently but he doesn’t strike me as a HoFer.
Well, unless I missed someone, here are the recent SP inductees (inducted since 2014):How is Sale in the Hall of Fame conversation?
Ramirez is also 9 years younger than the other two. If he stays productive he could put up some pretty impressive numbers by the time he reaches 40.The interesting cases, to me, will be Votto, Greinke, and Jose Ramirez. In my Hall there is definitely a case for Votto and Greinke but Jose Ramirez strikes me as a bit of the modern day Bobby Abreu. I know he puts up big numbers consistently but he doesn’t strike me as a HoFer.
I don't think DeGrom even has a chance to get to 110 wins. At his current pace lately he would need to pitch 6 more years until he is 41 just to get to 110 wins.Oops. Verlander is actually active. Kimbrel I had conveniently forgot. Considering Max, Greinke, and Kershaw as non-active currently, but they're in.
Counted it as :
No doubt:
Soto (young, but so way ahead of track)
Trout
Betts
Altuve
Arenado
Goldie
On track, almost in:
Harper
Freeman
Ahead of track but young and injury history:
Acuna
One of the GOAT but off field doubt:
Ohtani
50/50
Machado
Judge
Cole
Votto
Kenley
Decent chance
Sale
deGrom
Lindor
J. Ramirez
It seems like the standards for starters has been ridiculously high. Jim Kaat should also be on this list and, to me, his qualifications are pretty questionable, more a lifetime achievement award than an actual Oscar, but he's hardly the Harold Baines of pitchers either. Otherwise, You've got Morris, who never should have gotten in, and Mussina who never won a Cy Young but was in the top 5 six times, and then you've got 15 Cy Young Awards between the other six guys, with Smoltz as the only player with just one. It would be like only batters who had won MVPs getting elected.Well, unless I missed someone, here are the recent SP inductees (inducted since 2014):
Maddux | 107 WAR, 132 ERA+, 355 W, 3371 K
Johnson | 101 WAR, 135 ERA+, 303 W, 4875 K
Martínez | 83 WAR, 154 ERA+, 219 W, 3154 K
Mussina | 83 WAR, 123 ERA+, 270 W, 2813 K
Glavine | 81 WAR, 132 ERA+, 305 W, 2607 K
Smoltz | 69 WAR, 154 ERA+, 213 W and 154 SV, 3084 K
Halladay | 64 WAR, 131 ERA+, 203 W, 2117 K
Morris | 44 WAR, 105 ERA+, 254 W, 2478 K
Yeah I don't see it with Sale at all, barring a career renaissance. A very good pitcher who was a definite ace during his prime, but struggled with durability over the second half of his career. His peak wasn't nearly good enough to make up for those shortcomings.Ehh I think Sale is kind of a long shot at this point. He is 35 and hasn't been healthy/great since 2018. He is probably more of a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point in this career and he doesn't seem like the type of pitcher who will be throwing until he is 40. Halladay won 2 Cy Youngs, had a playoff no hitter, a perfect game, and was inducted shortly after his death. I think Sale is gonna end up like Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez. He would need 3 4 WAR seasons just to hit 60, which seems unlikely.
I think Sale's contract is just this season and next season, with a team option for 2026.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39240986/chris-sale-braves-agree-2-year-38m-extension-sources-say
One reason is I think hitting the statistical benchmarks for pitchers is very difficult without accumulating a lot of WAR. I think of a guy like Don Sutton, who wasn't really that good--only four ASGs, ranks 391st in Black Ink as he hardly ever led the league in anything, his 7-year WAR peak of 33.9 is well below the HoF average of 49.9. But he's in the HoF primarily because he hit two key benchmarks, 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. You simply can't get to 300 wins without being very solid for a very, very long time and because of that Sutton, finishes with a very respectable 66.7 career WAR, even if it took him 5,200 innings to do it.This is not to say that bWAR is the be-all-and-end-all of performance measurement, or to say that Rolen or McGriff don't belong in the Hall or that any of the other names do, but there's a lot of really, really good but not all-time great hitters in Cooperstown but not very many similar pitchers. Why is that?
This post made me wonder about Gerrit Cole's case, so I looked up Cole's numbers out of curiosity and it seems like he should have more wins, but assuming (huge assumption) he comes back healthy he has to be considered on track to make the Hall.Sale has three years remaining on his Atlanta deal and has 48 WAR, a 137 ERA+, 122 W and 12 SV, and 2216 K. He already has a better resume than Morris IMO, but Morris is a pretty startling outlier on this list, so that's not exactly a huge endorsement.
Based on FWar, deGrom led the NL in WAR both years he won the Cy Young (9.0 and 6.9, respectively). BWar had him second to Nola (9.7) at 9.5 with Scherzer 3rd at 7.9 in 2018 and first at 7.2 with Strasburg fifth in the NL at 5.6 in 2019.I don't think DeGrom even has a chance to get to 110 wins. At his current pace lately he would need to pitch 6 more years until he is 41 just to get to 110 wins.
Even if he gets there, I don't think he deserves to be in Cooperstown. Won 2 CYA with 10 wins and 11 wins in seasons where he should have lost both those awards to Nationals pitchers (Scherzer and Strasburg)
Changed your mind on the Coors hof case with arenado somehow being a lock while Machado is only 50-50?Oops. Verlander is actually active. Kimbrel I had conveniently forgot. Considering Max, Greinke, and Kershaw as non-active currently, but they're in.
Counted it as :
No doubt:
Soto (young, but so way ahead of track)
Trout
Betts
Altuve
Arenado
Goldie
On track, almost in:
Harper
Freeman
Ahead of track but young and injury history:
Acuna
One of the GOAT but off field doubt:
Ohtani
50/50
Machado
Judge
Cole
Votto
Kenley
Decent chance
Sale
deGrom
Lindor
J. Ramirez
I think we’re rapidly approaching a point with Pitchers where we need to decide if we’re going to value quality or durability… because I’d take Johan or DeGrom in the HoF for sure over some of the more ‘likely’ options that are just very good for 15 years rather than spectaular for 3-5.Yeah I don't see it with Sale at all, barring a career renaissance. A very good pitcher who was a definite ace during his prime, but struggled with durability over the second half of his career. His peak wasn't nearly good enough to make up for those shortcomings.
Santana and Sale have fairly similar career numbers, but unlike Sale, Santana was the undisputed best pitcher in baseball in his prime--he won two CYAs and should have won three in a row but was screwed in 2005 despite clearly being the best pitcher in the league. He led baseball in WAR for three straight seasons from 2004-2006, and I think is someone that will be reconsidered for the HoF down the line.
It's a couple things. If you're considering the pitcher position as just one of 9 (or 10 with the DH), then you're only going to put the best of the best at that spot in the Hall of Fame. You wouldn't put the 5th best second baseman of the 2010s in, so putting the 5th best starter in feels like the same thing to a voter even if they have a bigger impact on an individual game.This is not to say that bWAR is the be-all-and-end-all of performance measurement, or to say that Rolen or McGriff don't belong in the Hall or that any of the other names do, but there's a lot of really, really good but not all-time great hitters in Cooperstown but not very many similar pitchers. Why is that?
Yet Lou Whitaker is 75 WAR (67 oWAR, 9 dWAR) and he didn't last two years on the ballot and still hasn't gotten the Vet committee call (they went with Ted Simmons instead last time he was up)A couple of interesting cases (WAR is not the be-all end-all, but 60 bWAR is considered a decent threshold for the HOF borderline):
-Juan Soto - 30 bWAR coming into his age 25 season. He's been so good at such a young age it would take a massive fall off for him to not at least reach the borderline.
-Shohei Ohtani - 35 bWAR coming into his age 29 season. He will get a ton of extra credit for being a two player beyond whats calculated in WAR. Who knows how his body will hold up.
-Aaron Judge - 41 bWAR coming into his age 32 season, but you have to remember that he didn't become a full time major leaguer until age 25.
-Jose Ramirez - 46 bWAR (same as Harper) coming into his age 31 season. He doesn't have the hardware or gaudy numbers, but over a seven year span his MVP finishes are 3rd twice, 2nd, 6th, 4th and 10th.