I would not trade Bogaerts for Sale. The problem is the money, which is not close to even. I expect their WAR over the next five years to be comparable, but not their costs.
White Sox Fan Posting Here- Would you do this trade?
- Thread starter Brian26
- Start date
There are numerous reasons why one wouldn't do this trade. I don't think the WAR argument is necessary here. bWAR is built off of RAA, which is an important metric but one of many. If one goes by fWAR, which relies on FIP, Chris Sale comes off more favorably, with a 6.2 WAR this year. Xander and mookie had 4.8 and 4.3 fWAR respectively.
Honestly, after taking a look at Sale carefully, I'd still say no, but it'd be a lot closer than I thought.
Consider this hypothetical: What would you give for Kershaw if he agrees to a buy out clause in 2019, and the dodgers kick in 81 million of his remaining deal? Oh, and you can decide if you want to just dump him (i.e. if he collapses) after 2017 or 2018.
Let's continue by playing devil's advocate here. Why would one want Chris Sale?
Chris Sale struck out 30% of batters over the last two seasons. He walked less than 6%. His HR/FB rate (11.1% over his career) is likely an over-estimate of his true talent due to playing in Cellular Field. In other words, you're talking Clayton Kershaw level talent. Chris Sale has been a full-time major league starter since 2012. From 2012-2015 Sale had a 73 xFIP- in 789 innings in the AL; only Kershaw had a better xFIP- at 68 in 898 innings in the NL. Unlike Kershaw, he's cheap and a year younger. He's got two team options through 2019, with 2019 costing no more than 16 million (I think it's around a 12-12.5 million AAV, and that's assuming the team options/bonuses kick in).
Essentially, Chris Sale reflects one of the best 5 pitchers in the game right now. By some considerations, Sale has been the second best pitcher in the game, and he's signed to a deal, through his prime years, that's about 50-60% below what David Price will cost. We get Sale, and we don't need to sign anyone else.
From a roster perspective, I'm not sure I would be willing to trade Xander, but I could see why some would be willing. There aren't many good shortstops on the FA market, and only four shortstops in the league hit better than xander last year (according to wRC+, min 300 PA; by wOBA he'd be fourth). He's 23, and it would be difficult to replace his level of talent, so we'd be giving up a hole to fill one. Furthermore, Xander may be one of the three best shortstops in MLB in 5 years. Then again, Xander may improve, but he may not. He's hasn't shown the power we expected to see in the majors; last year's offense was largely driven by slap hitting. Personally, I'd be happy with Xander as is. However if I didn't think Xander would progress, and trading Xander could net Sale, I'd consider it.
On the other hand, I would be willing to trade Betts, but I could see why some would not. It would certainly hurt to trade Betts. Betts was one of the top 7 CF hitters last year and played solid CF. Unfortunately for Betts, CF offense has become more prevalent than SS offense. Furthermore, JBJ can play preternatural CF defense and may also have the ability to hit well. If JBJ doesn't work out in two years, there are players we may be able to trade for (e.g. McCutchen, who will become too expensive for a small-mid market team like the Pirates) or internal options (e.g. Benintendi, who'll be 23) that may work. That being said, Betts turned 23 a month ago, and just hit .820 OPS with a 0.310 BABIP. He has decent power (0.188 ISO) and is capable of 20+ HR and 20+ SB per year. In other words, he's where McCutchen was at 6 years ago.
The problem here is that the White Sox need a middle infielder more than they need an outfielder. Don't get me wrong, Betts is a huge upgrade for the White Sox, it allows them to shift Eaton over to one of the corners and provides flexibility for Trace/Garcia. However, they could also sign Alex Gordon, keep Eaton in center, and it wouldn't cost them Sale (though there's a huge difference in payroll between these situations). I guess they could play Betts at 2B instead, where he profiles really well, but he's (by my eye) a better defender in the outfield. In any case, I could see the White Sox dealing Sale straight up for Xander, but requiring a larger package for Betts; though I'm not privy to the FO's process, obviously.
Trading both would be an absolute steal for the White Sox, especially if they play Betts at 2B. They would replace two 60-70 wRC+ hitters with league average hitters who are likely to hit well above average. Given that their outfield is less of a mess than it seems, and catcher/1B aren't a problem, this would fix most of their offensive problems and give them a bit of money to spend on some starting pitching. I don't see how the Red Sox would make this move. This definitely fixes the starting pitching. Coupled with the trade for Kimbrel, we'd have a top 10 staff. However, we'd have holes in the outfield/1B and at SS. We could fill the outfield with Gordon, but he'll probably cost at least 12-14 million a year and would be a 5 year deal. Coupled with Sale's salary, it would make more sense to overpay for a free agent SP than to do the trade at all; at least then we'd have fewer holes in the team. I don't know how we can replace Xander, even if he doesn't develop more power and ends up a slap hitter.
At the end of the day, the reason why the Sale trade doesn't make sense for the sox is because the SP market is a buyers market right now. Guys like Xander are at a premium because they can't be found for just cash. I could see a package put together for Betts getting done, but I just can't see how Xander would get traded.
This is intriguing. The Sox are in desperate need of a catcher, as Tyler Flowers has been a bust. SP is their strength. Quintana is probably their best piece to trade right now.
What we're seeing here is the paradox of great young pitching: it's become so valuable that a "reasonable" trade for a top young pitcher represents an unacceptable risk - too many eggs in one basket.
Just a quibble, but while Bogaerts is exactly what you describe, Mookie is not. He is not a league average hitter, has not been a league average hitter at any level since his low-A debut in 2012, and has given us no reason to assume that he's going to be a league average hitter anytime soon. He was an elite minor league hitter, became a well above average hitter immediately on hitting the majors, has remained one, and at 23 still has room to get better by improving his walk rate.
I love dominant left handed starters, and I probably overvalue them slightly in my mind. I love Chris Sale and thanks to MLB.tv I tune into his starts as often as Kershaw and Price and Hamels. I was one of the people very much in favor of giving up a lot for Hamels.
But I think people outside of Boston don't realize how special XB is.
His 4.6 WAR as a 22 year old shortstop is pretty rocking. Hanley got a 4.9 as a 22 year old shortstop. Manny wasn't a shortstop, but didn't get to 4.6 until his age 25 season. Miggy was slightly ahead at 5.6. Jeter was 3.3. Nomar was tearing up AAA and sipping a cup of coffee. Chipper was taking the year off before a 2.7 as a 23 year old. Yount was still in the infield at 5.0.
The guys I found who outclass him are ARod, Ripken, Tulo.
As someone who was a patient believer in XB during his rough 2014, I think he is a legitimate star, and we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled.
So as much as I love Sale, I spend the dollars on Price instead, and don't think I would give XB straight up based on what I expect to unfold in the next four years. Throw in 6.0 WAR Betts who exceeded my wildest expectations, and I think it can't realistically get any more than a chuckle.
But I think people outside of Boston don't realize how special XB is.
His 4.6 WAR as a 22 year old shortstop is pretty rocking. Hanley got a 4.9 as a 22 year old shortstop. Manny wasn't a shortstop, but didn't get to 4.6 until his age 25 season. Miggy was slightly ahead at 5.6. Jeter was 3.3. Nomar was tearing up AAA and sipping a cup of coffee. Chipper was taking the year off before a 2.7 as a 23 year old. Yount was still in the infield at 5.0.
The guys I found who outclass him are ARod, Ripken, Tulo.
As someone who was a patient believer in XB during his rough 2014, I think he is a legitimate star, and we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled.
So as much as I love Sale, I spend the dollars on Price instead, and don't think I would give XB straight up based on what I expect to unfold in the next four years. Throw in 6.0 WAR Betts who exceeded my wildest expectations, and I think it can't realistically get any more than a chuckle.
0/260/0
I'm not sure that you could get this unanimous of a poll here this side of asking "Was 2004 a good year?"
I'm not sure that you could get this unanimous of a poll here this side of asking "Was 2004 a good year?"
If the question was "or" instead of "and", I would at least ponder the trade for a few moments. That it is B and B...instant no.
You couldn't get that kind of unanimous result here if the question was "Pedro Martinez?"
Did you look for guys who were similar as a 22 year old but flamed out? Elvis Andrus had a WAR of 4.2. Wil Cordero was 3.0, but that was over only 467 PA as opposed to 654 for Xander (WAR is of course, a counting stat).
I like Xander. But I want to see his D stats look like that for another year. I want to see some more power to offset his inevitable decline in BABIP. I'm optimistic about the latter (he's still young), less certain about the former.
Curious why you think his defensive abilities will regress? To my eye the improvement was in vastly improved athleticism and a corresponding confidence. Unless he bulks up one would not expect a 22 year old to lose those enhanced skills.
What do you mean by "...we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled"? This would be an even swap of controlled years, and Sale would cost an extra $20million or so more.
Just because that's always been the worry with him, and the relative unreliability of defensive stats from a single season.
Well - my estimation - and most folks hereabouts - of his improvement had little to do with any defensive stats he accumulated. Simply watching him over the course of the season revealed X as completely different - and vastly improved- defensive player. But the point about bulking up stands I suppose. But he's only 22. One would think that shouldn't start for a few years at least.
Two great examples. I was doing some cherry picking trying to be as inclusive as I could be, but certainly missed some (and left out some that I thought weren't relevant). But Andrus is a fascinating example. Lesser bat, greater glove would seem less likely to mature as well, but he has fallen off (while still young enough to rebound). Wil Cordero is also a great cautionary tale with his outlier season at 22 and all downhill from there.
For me the biggest factor in Xander's value will be if his power starts to play up, and if he remains athletic enough to be good at SS deep into his 20s. That is hard to compare across different offensive eras, but I do see a lot of similarity to a young Manny and young Hanley in approach at the plate and physical tools.
I didn't phrase that well. What I mean is if he remains the 4 win player he was this year across his cost controlled years that itself would be amazing and likely worth more than Sale while both under contract, in addition to costing less and having additional controlled years. Then if you add in the XB upside that I think will see some 6 to 8 win seasons as he nears his prime, it won't even be close. I remain very bullish on Xander, and other than one his one rough season of adjustment, has shown a lot of reason for high expectations.
Up to 0/300/0
Brian, does your board have any thoughts on the unprecedented unanimous results from this board?
Brian, does your board have any thoughts on the unprecedented unanimous results from this board?
There seems to be quite a bit more activity here right now than on White Sox Interactive. Our current poll is 9 yes, 24 no, and 12 not sure.
No comments from WSI on your poll.
Thanks for being cordial. I appreciate the discussion. Hope you don't mind if I hang out here occassionally.
No comments from WSI on your poll.
Thanks for being cordial. I appreciate the discussion. Hope you don't mind if I hang out here occassionally.
You're welcome here any time. We always appreciate good conversation from the enemy perspective.
Yea man, stick around. We even have yankees fans on the board that are mods. Its interesting to hear different perspectives.