Wilfork & the 2015 Pats
- Thread starter pokey_reese
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j44thor said:
In terms of leaders of the defense, can they afford to lose both Wilfork and Mayo? I mean, even with the injury, Mayo led the defensive "huddle" before games and basically served as an additional coach all season.
That said, I'm not sure Mayo even "starts" in the nickel next year with the development of Collins and Hightower. There are some very interesting decisions to be made with respect to team chemistry versus ability here. Very difficult.
How else will they free up money for a Wendell extension?Phragle said:
Yup, some hard decisions coming up, I think from the numbers you lay out here that at least one big contributor to the defense is going to be moving on (Mayo is sort of his own case, easiest to move on from performance wise but still not sure it gets Wilfork/Browner/McCourty/Revis all back for another year). Not having a great replacement for Wilfork is certainly a valid point against cutting him, but might be looking at Arrington/Ryan as the starting 2nd cornerback if you go that route and Wilfork's play is more likely to fall off further next year than Browner'sEd Hillel said:
SeoulSoxFan said:
Oh you mean Dan Williams of the soon-to-be RFP Champion Tactical Turtlenecks? I know about him, but I don't think he's a good fit here. In AZ he's 2-down, 3-4 NT, and that's it. He's very effective in that role but I think the Pats will want someone proven to be more versatile if they're going to sign a big FA DT.
Ed Hillel said:
It makes just as much sense.
Doesn't that describe Wilfork exactly? To me it seems like having a huge 3-4 two gap NT gives Belichick and Patricia a lot of flexibility to run 3 or 4 down linemen and still be able to stop or at least slow down the run, even with extra DBs or faster LBs.Phragle said:
Seems like Belichick may want a huge NT if Wilfork goes. Back 10 years ago in the 3-4 that player was essentia, and I think having one gives flexibility still. We will see how they play it.
As for Wilfork and the eye test, I remember two games, all from watching TV not the all-22. Against KC, the DL was getting blasted off the ball repeatedly and Wilfork looked bad. And in the Super Bowl I thought the DL and Wilfork especially did a good job stopping the run. The announcers called out a few plays where 75 shed a block and filled a hole, but in other plays as well I thought Wilfork was getting push or at least holding up at the line of scrimmage.
The way FO measures open-field yards is 10+ past the line of the scrimmage. At that level, Wilfork's impact is minor.soxfan121 said:
The run defense was terrible in 2013, but at the same time, it didn't really appear to cost them much. They gave up 120+ rushing yards in 10 games - and won eight of them. Ultimately it was the pass defense that doomed them, as they gave up a season-high 400 passing yards in the AFCCG. In this era of high-octane passing, non-extreme performances in the running game just don't tilt the needle that much. I'm all for hanging on to Wilfork if the price is right, but I'm more concerned with keeping the band together in the secondary.
This is how I've traditionally looked at cap management, too, but the Mankins trade tells me that the Patriots don't look at it this way. Mankins had a cap number of $10.25 MM with $8 MM in dead money. That looks like a modest savings, but they actually saved $6.25 MM (his 2014 salary) relative to how much they would have spent keeping him. You always have to pay the dead money, whether you keep the player or cut him. If the Patriots cut Mayo now, they will pay him $3 MM this year and $3 MM next (assuming they designate him a post-6/1). If the keep him for a year and cut him next year, they will pay him ~$10.25 MM this year and ~$3 MM next. So the real savings is in the neighborhood of $7 MM, and if they think Mayo isn't worth that they should cut him or trade him.Ed Hillel said:
crystalline said:
That's his ideal role, but we've seen Wilfork evolve and find success outside of the 0-tech. We've seen him in a 4-man front regularly, as a 3-4 DE at times, and even as a 9-tech. They have a lot of similarities, but Williams hasn't done that. Williams is also in an ideal position, for him and the Cardinals, so you'll have to outbid them. I think we're talking about a bigger contract, and if we're doing that I'd rather go for a more versatile guy that can pass-rush too, like Knighton. Having a good run stuffer is one thing, but how often does Wilfork play 0-tech now? I can't remember any snaps this year off the top of my head.
I'm not very good at statistics, but if four or five stops can swing your percentage ranking from dead last to middle of the pack, I'm not sure this is a very useful indicator of anything without context for each situation, especially run direction in relation to defensive alignment (at least in regards to Wilfork).
Right, in the same way that Belichick bristled at the reporter who suggested that being good at the end of the 1st half and being good at the end of the 2nd half were equivalent ("They're totally different game situations").
If I'm correctly interpreting the stats that are being lumped together, 2nd & goal from the 1 up by 4 with :26 left is a pretty different situation than, say, a 3rd/4th & 1 from midfield.
If I'm correctly interpreting the stats that are being lumped together, 2nd & goal from the 1 up by 4 with :26 left is a pretty different situation than, say, a 3rd/4th & 1 from midfield.
First, I didn't watch every snap, but yes I remember a lot of plays with 3DL where he was playing end. They moved him around. And with 4 guys on the line with a LB like Chandler Jones on the end, so you have Wilfork being essential to hold up the middle of the line. Its true I don't remember many plays where he's lined up over the center.Phragle said:
What I see is more based on the type of guys Belichick picks up. Wilfork, Siliga, Chris Jones, Vellano, Branch, G Warren etc. are all big strong hold-your-ground types (to different degrees: Jones is not that big e.g.) that may occasionally get a sack if a play totally breaks down. They definitely line up at different spots but their role is (usually) gap control, despite the lack of a true NT.
To me Wilfork is the best of that bunch still.
The question is how much better the team judges him and the value they assign, and what contract he's willing to take.
That's right, I think. Mayo's cap hit, for being the 3rd best LB, is higher than Wilfork's, as best DT. Wilfork is still probably overpaid, just not as overpaid.
MainerInExile said:
While this is true, the team's LB corp is much better than its interior defensive line. Mayo likely is the third best LB on the team at this point, but the two ahead of him are coming off of pro-bowl caliber seasons. The cap hit is also not the most relevant aspect to be looking at here, since Mayo has bonus money that cannot be taken off the cap. Mayo's cap hit is 10.3 million, but they can only save 3.85 million against the cap by flat cutting him (with the caveat they can get it up to 6.25 for 2015 by deferring 2.4 dead money to 2016, which is still an overall savings of 3.85). Wilfork's cap hit is lower at 8.9 million, but the savings from a pure cut is at least 7 million (I think it's actually over 8 million, but PatsCap is inconsistent on this. Total cap hit is 8.93, and the only guaranteed money I see is the prorated signing bonus, which adds up to around 866k. Anyone?). They can obviously restructure and try to lower either of those cap hits, but in terms of pure cap savings, Wilfork's contract offers almost twice that, possible more, of Mayo's.
Edit - Over the Cap has Wilfork's cap savings as slightly over 8 million. I think Miguel's page may contain a typo and say 7 instead of 8. This is a good example of why just checking one website and stating it as fact may not be the best way to go all the time. There's a lot of number crunching here; I wouldn't expect everyone's math to be accurate, let alone for everyone to know the exact wording of every contract.
The short term cost savings of Wilfork might be more, but in the longer run you save $6-7 million cutting Mayo. You have to pay his dead money either way, but you really save his 2015 salary cutting him now, even if it forces some dead money to accelerate.Ed Hillel said:
